Jump to content

A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...


Recommended Posts

One of the best movies of the 2010’s was Spotlight.  If you haven’t seen it, it’s the re-telling of how the investigative journalism branch of one of the Boston newspapers uncovered systemic sexual abuse of young boys and how the Catholic Church covered it up.  There is a line in that movie when a lawyer played by Stanley Tucci is advising the reporter (Mark Ruffalo) digging in on the story which is ‘the church thinks in centuries’.

For Terry Fontenot – while he doesn’t need to think in terms of centuries, as a newly hired GM, he’s certainly looking at a longer term view than just 2021.  Ask yourself this question.

If Thomas Dimitroff drafts Glenn Dorsey instead of Matt Ryan in 2008, is he the Falcons GM for 13 years?

Yes, circumstances were a bit different for the Falcons when Dimitroff was hired.  Matt Ryan >>>> Chris Redman.  At the same time, the preceding 3 year period saw the Falcons win 1 more game than the 2018-2020 Falcons.  Both the 2007 Falcons and 2019 Falcons won 4 games; the 2019 version with the best QB in franchise history...the 2007 version with a hodge podge of back-up caliber QB's.

Let's fast-forward to 2023?  Ryan will be 38.  Can Fontenot, or anyone for that matter, say with certainty that Ryan’s skill level won’t be in decline?  That his body will no longer be able to handle the grind of a 16-game season (and more)?  There are certainly examples of QB’s playing into their 40’s recently (Brady/Brees)…there are also QB’s that showed signs of decline in their late 30’s (Big Ben/Rivers).  And for as much as the Ryan supporters want to chant 'Wins are not a QB stat!!'...disassociating Ryan from accountability and culpability for the Falcons subpar performance is not a luxury Terry Fontenot can afford as he evaluates the task in front of him.  At the same time, this is not 'blame Ryan for everything' stance.

I agree.  The roster  top to bottom is not at the level of any of the teams that were involved on Championship Weekend.  But let's also be honest – the same applies to the QB's.  Yes, once upon a time Ryan had a season for the ages.  But the hard truth is that he’s generally been a rung below elite for his career.  And when you look at the last 8 years…it’s simply too difficult to ignore the 57-71 record the Falcons put up the last 8 seasons under his watch.  He may not have been the problem - but he wasn’t a solution either..  If you’re a franchise QB, then for $30M/year, that’s a record that has to be owned by his legacy and certainly how a new regime would look at him.  Fontenot has been brought in to find solutions, not identify problems.  The problem(s) are clear.

Now it’s absolutely within the realm of reason that Fontenot could retool around Ryan and we could all feel good about the plan heading into 2021.  Much like we all did the last couple of seasons, although the Falcons horrid salary cap situation likely would mean having to do more with less.  When you consider that the Dimitroff and Quinn were essentially on 1-year contracts tthe last two seasons…well that’s how you get the short-term infusions of perceived improvement we got.  Moves that in hindsight checked a box in terms of problems to solve Looking good they in June, but once the rubber hit the road on the season…not so much.  Rebuild/retool around Ryan?  We've been there, done that.  Calvin Ridley, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary, Todd Gurley, Jamon Brown, James Carpenter, Hayden Hurst…all acquired to accentuate Ryan’s perceived strengths, while the Falcons scoring offense decreased from 10th/13th/16th the last 3 seasons (25.9/23.8/24.8).

Fontenot is not on a 1-year deal – is anyone going to judge the job he’s doing based on the 2021 Falcons?  Why would he follow the same script responsible for creating the vacancy he just ascended to?  While improvement in 2021 could be represented by 7-9/8-8, would that constitute an overall directional improvement for the Falcons if the elephant in the room, that pesky long term QB issue isn’t addressed?  8-8 gets the Falcons the #16 pick (approximate) in the 2022 draft, hardly fertile ground for young franchise QB acquisition.  And Matt Ryan will be one year closer to the end.

I agree that any QB selected at #4 is not guaranteed to be a sure-fire success.  But anyone claiming we have that as a current state hasn’t been paying attention.  Whichever QB at #4 is there…that QB looks a lot more attractive than Matt Ryan.  And the chances that QB will be successful in 2023-2025 (and beyond) are a lot higher than Matt Ryan’s.  If you think Fontenot isn’t thinking about that timeframe as he commences with architecting his vision for building a franchise that he’s likely been contemplating the entirety of his career up until now…well, I’m sure you’re looking at a bunch of trees, not a forest.

The Falcons have the #4 pick.  They have a 36-year old QB.  We hear it from every new regime…’we don’t want to be picking this high ever again’.  From Terry Fontenot’s perspective, he’ll never have a better chance to secure the singular and foundational piece of his franchise blueprint than in April.  The QB draft this year is seen as uniquely strong, if a bit raw…which still plays well for the Falcons.  Who better to be a bridge QB and mentor to their next franchise QB, than the previous one.  Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Trey Lance all have franchise QB potential.  The Falcons are guaranteed a shot at one of them.  Waiting until 2022?  2023?  Taking the Glenn Dorsey route would certainly be a high-wire act for the opening stanza of Fontenot’s GM career.  While it makes sense to follow the mindset of 2008 Thomas Dimitroff…following 2019-2020 Dimitroff would be foolhardy.

QB @ #4 is the smart move.  The safe move.  The right move.  The only move.
 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 406
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

One of the best movies of the 2010’s was Spotlight.  If you haven’t seen it, it’s the re-telling of how the investigative journalism branch of one of the Boston newspapers uncovered systemic sexual ab

Lol why do I always read these thing? Always a wordy waste of time. If you can't tell that Matt Ryan had down years because of how terrible Koetter was, then you're not worth listening to. A terrible

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If

Posted Images

If we needed a quarterback I’d agree.

Also, theory is flawed.  If Matt Ryan is on such a decline as many of those who want to draft a QB believe he is, then we’ll be picking early in the draft next year as well.

Kedon Slovis

Sam Howell 

Dylan Gabriel

Spencer Rattler

Desmond Ridder

there are some very good prospects next year as well.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I get the logic.  Makes total sense.  As long as you like the QB that will be available to us at 4.  After Trevor, IMHO, they are all similar in potential.  Fields may be better now, Wilson may have the best arm, and Lance may be the best in the long term.  You have to balance that knowledge against placing ***** in the dome.  

I agree with you in principal.  I would hate to be the one selecting.  Another scenario is TF gets a trade down opportunity for the ages, we bulk up on picks and another kid further down catches their eye as someone they can work with under Ryan's tutelage until he's ready to go (or put out to pasture).  

Mac Jones, Ehlinger, Trask are all later picks.  Second through fourth round.  There may be others.  I am intrigued by the direction we select to go in.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol why do I always read these thing? Always a wordy waste of time. If you can't tell that Matt Ryan had down years because of how terrible Koetter was, then you're not worth listening to. A terrible take is still a terrible take even if you try to hide behind 8 paragraphs of fluff.

 

TLDR for everyone else: Matt Ryan Bad. We draft new QB or else!

Link to post
Share on other sites

The thing is if we actually build a good team Ryan declining slightly won't matter that much. Brady's certainly declined but he's in the SB. Brees has been declining for years but his team's consistently been in the mix. If we actually make a defense and run game for once Ryan won't have to be the entire team anymore. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ATLskinjob said:

Lol why do I always read these thing? Always a wordy waste of time. If you can't tell that Matt Ryan had down years because of how terrible Koetter was, then you're not worth listening to. A terrible take is still a terrible take even if you try to hide behind 8 paragraphs of fluff.

 

TLDR for everyone else: Matt Ryan Bad. We draft new QB or else!

Perhaps he said that.  But, TDW has been around a minute and isn't a troll.  He has some valid points, perhaps a bit more negative than my somewhat brighter outlook.  Matt is aging. And we need a plan for his egress.  I think we all agree on that.  But, we simply differ on personnel and the time-frame.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Matt Ryan was the best qb in that draft. Cpuld they have drafted Dorsey and traded up in the 1st again for Flacco instead of Baker? Whomever will be at #4 will not be the best qb in the draft. MR2 contract/cap hit will not magically disappear with a qb pick. If they think a qb at #4 is a homerun and "safe", go for it. I'd rather take the bpa, which is safe to me in Chase

Edited by Mister pudding
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

If we needed a quarterback I’d agree.

Also, theory is flawed.  If Matt Ryan is on such a decline as many of those who want to draft a QB believe he is, then we’ll be picking early in the draft next year as well.

Kedon Slovis

Sam Howell 

Dylan Gabriel

Spencer Rattler

Desmond Ridder

there are some very good prospects next year as well.

 

 

 

Let’s play this out...

Falcons have a bad year.  QB in play for 2022 depending on how bad the year is, but now Fontenot/Smith have wasted a year of their tenure.  The hypothetical of ‘Falcons passed on <insert QB(s) they passed on here> now hangs over their choice.

Falcons have a good year...likely not in a position to secure any of the above.  Clock still ticking on Ryan and Fontenot/Smith at the mercy of building a franchise in the fog so to speak with limited long term visibility.

Neither is an attractive option for their job prospects long term.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If smith can do what he did with tannehill than i think ryan will be fine.his offense takes pressure off of the qb.it should actually can add years to Ryan's career.just my opinion.you could get a qb outside the first round and they could sit and learn for two years.

Edited by Ians0280
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Let’s play this out...

Falcons have a bad year.  QB in play for 2022 depending on how bad the year is, but now Fontenot/Smith have wasted a year of their tenure.  The hypothetical of ‘Falcons passed on <insert QB(s) they passed on here> now hangs over their choice.

Falcons have a good year...likely not in a position to secure any of the above.  Clock still ticking on Ryan and Fontenot/Smith at the mercy of building a franchise in the fog so to speak with limited long term visibility.

Neither is an attractive option for their job prospects long term.

You realize drafting a QB won't make this next season any better, meaning they'll have still 'wasted' it, right? Having an unknown QB in the wings doesn't help that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

The thing is if we actually build a good team Ryan declining slightly won't matter that much. Brady's certainly declined but he's in the SB. Brees has been declining for years but his team's consistently been in the mix. If we actually make a defense and run game for once Ryan won't have to be the entire team anymore. 

How do we build a good team with our cap situation?  Don’t the current players on the roster bear some brunt of the blame for the underperformance?

Secondly, but for one season, Ryan’s not been at Brees/Brady’s level.

Thirdly, compare rosters of TB/NO to ours.  Those teams are better teams all around.  Where is our Shaq Barrett, JPP, Kamara.  Arians and Payton have decades of successful experience offensively in the NFL.  No one knew who Arthur Smith was 18 months ago.

These things matter in truly honest self-evaluations.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I honestly see both sides.  Thankfully, the Falcons future does not test on my shoulders.  

To be perfectly honest, Matt goes two more solid years, especially with Smiths offensive mindset.  And I am not a great evaluator of football talent, so I don't have a clear picture of which current or near future college QB prospect would fit best with our team and offensive concept.  

I like Ehlinger, I'm an unapologetically a Texas homer.  But I don't know if he is "Da Fucha" for any NFL team.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TheDirtyWordII said:

How do we build a good team with our cap situation?  Don’t the current players on the roster bear some brunt of the blame for the underperformance?

Secondly, but for one season, Ryan’s not been at Brees/Brady’s level.

Thirdly, compare rosters of TB/NO to ours.  Those teams are better teams all around.  Where is our Shaq Barrett, JPP, Kamara.  Arians and Payton have decades of successful experience offensively in the NFL.  No one knew who Arthur Smith was 18 months ago.

These things matter in truly honest self-evaluations.

Yeah exactly, so let's build a good team through the draft. That's the whole point. If Smith is bad it's all pointless to debate anyway.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Disagree that it's "the only move," but do agree that Fontenot needs to be thinking now about where this franchise will be in 4-5 years, when Ryan will no longer be a starting QB in the NFL. 

If he and Smith think they can have ATL in the NFCCG within 2 years, they may decide it makes more sense to take a QB like Newman in the 2nd or 3rd, trading down to acquire more picks and get the D talent that any Falcons QB (including Ryan) cannot win without. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Kaptain Krazy said:

Disagree that it's "the only move," but do agree that Fontenot needs to be thinking now about where this franchise will be in 4-5 years, when Ryan will no longer be a starting QB in the NFL. 

If he and Smith think they can have ATL in the NFCCG within 2 years, they may decide it makes more sense to take a QB like Newman in the 2nd or 3rd, trading down to acquire more picks and get the D talent that any Falcons QB (including Ryan) cannot win without. 

Kind of my feeling.  At the end of the day, Smith and Fontenot have to win.  50K+ season ticket holders won't show up to a team with no hope.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Lornoth said:

You realize drafting a QB won't make this next season any better, meaning they'll have still 'wasted' it, right? Having an unknown QB in the wings doesn't help that.

You think a years apprenticeship under Matt Ryan would be wasteful?  Let me check in with the KC folks...see what they think.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Let’s play this out...

Falcons have a bad year.  QB in play for 2022 depending on how bad the year is, but now Fontenot/Smith have wasted a year of their tenure.  The hypothetical of ‘Falcons passed on <insert QB(s) they passed on here> now hangs over their choice.

Falcons have a good year...likely not in a position to secure any of the above.  Clock still ticking on Ryan and Fontenot/Smith at the mercy of building a franchise in the fog so to speak with limited long term visibility.

Neither is an attractive option for their job prospects long term.

Let’s play this out

Falcons have a good year.  They make the playoffs.  QB we drafted at pick 4 doesn’t help us at all as he continues to sit on the bench.  3rd and 18 with the game on the line we give up 22 yards.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

Yeah exactly, so let's build a good team through the draft. That's the whole point. If Smith is bad it's all pointless to debate anyway.

Why would picking a QB at #4 not constitute that?  TEN threw less than all but one NFL team the last two seasons (BAL).  We know why...

You know how many FG’s TEN attempted from within 40 yards the last two seasons? 13...think that had to do with Henry and Tannehill’s running ability?  Of course it did.  The Falcons BTW attempted 46.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Why would picking a QB at #4 not constitute that?  TEN threw less than all but one NFL team the last two seasons (BAL).  We know why...

You know how many FG’s TEN attempted from within 40 yards the last two seasons? 13...think that had to do with Henry and Tannehill’s running ability?  Of course it did.  The Falcons BTW attempted 46.

So you're saying Smith is good at building a great offense without the QB needing to throw the ball really well? Well then sign me up for a top 5 QB.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

Kind of my feeling.  At the end of the day, Smith and Fontenot have to win.  50K+ season ticket holders won't show up to a team with no hope.

They stopped showing up already.  They don’t have to win in 2021...eventually obviously.  But 2021 is Dimitroff and Quinn’s money...

And you really think drafting a QB at #4 doesn’t convey hope?  Versus not drafting one...? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

If we needed a quarterback I’d agree.

Also, theory is flawed.  If Matt Ryan is on such a decline as many of those who want to draft a QB believe he is, then we’ll be picking early in the draft next year as well.

Kedon Slovis

Sam Howell 

Dylan Gabriel

Spencer Rattler

Desmond Ridder

there are some very good prospects next year as well.

 

 

 

Yeah this is the logic I cant seem to wrap my brain around. If Ryan is such a steep decline as some say, it doesn't matter whether they pick a QB this year or not seeing that they will likely picking high again next year. 

My take is whether the Falcons pick a QB or not should be based on AS and TF's evaluation of the QBs in the draft and where they think Ryan will be in the next couple of years. Not solely because they are picking #4 this year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...