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BPA? Are you really ready?


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15 hours ago, Trick Montalban said:

I think they should trade back, and then go BPA after that with the extra picks. Lots of hidden gems this draft due to players opting out and such which resulted in their draft value lowering. 

And you’re trusting a first time GM to trade back from an impact player to find “hidden gems”... the logic here is flawless

Edited by jetpac
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Honestly dont care for mocks i do my own research. If I like a defensive player at 4 im taking him. This "no player but qb at 4" is mock draft driven. I seriously believe they trade down. With multiple teams needing a QB1 the Falcons can build with those pick. 

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2 hours ago, falcndave said:

I love BPA. That said, I consider it to be a description of mentality more than literally expecting to take the BPA for every draft selection. If an OG is the BPA every time it is your time to pick, nobody is taking 7 OGs. To me all BPA really means is: "I am willing to take an outstanding athlete even if we are covered at his position." 

I hear something like this every year from TATF needs based mocker fockers. OG won't be the BPA in every round. Trust me bro. Go BPA with every pick in every draft, every round, at every position, including QB. Get stacked. Don't try to fill holes with rookie boys like Dimi did. Draft for the future and fill gaping holes with veterans that know how to play NFL ball in Week 1.

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59 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Do you think we are trading down from pick 4 to the 5th round? This might be the dumbest thing ever posted to this board.

 

17 minutes ago, TheTrue7 said:

See, I disagree 

I’ve seen him post much worse.

Y'all mean.

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14 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

I hear something like this every year from TATF needs based mocker fockers. OG won't be the BPA in every round. Trust me bro. Go BPA with every pick in every draft, every round, at every position, including QB. Get stacked. Don't try to fill holes with rookie boys like Dimi did. Draft for the future and fill gaping holes with veterans that know how to play NFL ball in Week 1.

I generally agree. To me going BPA and trusting analytics are the same. Of course you do it, but you don't throw reason out the door in the process. You have to continue to think. Especially when it comes to trades and such. Do you pick BPA or do you trade down where you get get the next best guy, plus an extra pick? BPA allows for zero trades if taken literally. All I'm saying, is: "BPA? Sure...but use your brain." 

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34 minutes ago, falcndave said:

I generally agree. To me going BPA and trusting analytics are the same. Of course you do it, but you don't throw reason out the door in the process. You have to continue to think. Especially when it comes to trades and such. Do you pick BPA or do you trade down where you get get the next best guy, plus an extra pick? BPA allows for zero trades if taken literally. All I'm saying, is: "BPA? Sure...but use your brain." 

BPA starts when you're on the clock.

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On 1/26/2021 at 7:40 AM, thanat0s said:

I'm beginning to believe that our assumptions about the top of this draft might be wrong. Yes, I fully expect the top three picks to be offense, and likely QBs (Miami will likely trade out unless they like Wilson or Lance).

After that? We've seen defenders get pushed up in countless drafts before, because of the premium on DL and pass rushers. Teams might figure they better get a defender now rather than wait, while the offensive side is loaded this year.

Also, some of the top prospects entering the last college season sat out, so we're in a trap of making projections based on their not having played a season. NFL big boards might be entirely different than the public as it relates to these guys. 

As for BPA, I certainly am a fan of that, so I'd love us to take the best player we can at that spot, then figure out the roster fit later, unless that's a QB. I'm only for taking QBs when you need one, not for convenience sake. If a QB lands there, you trade out, because "BPA" at that time is whatever number of guys you can get with those extra picks. 

Having said all that, the likely "BPA" at 4 is going to be a WR. No one is brain damaged enough to believe we'll take say, Jamarr Chase, at 4 with Ridley and Julio on the roster. 😄

I would be very shocked if the top 3 picks were QB.  I'll be honestly extremely shocked if the Bengals don't try to move up to 2 or 3 to take their top LT choice whether Sewell or the Northwestern kid (I think Slater).  I believe we have a pretty decent chance of trading back as their are a lot of teams wanting a QB and out of the top 3 (Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields) I feel there is a consensus opinion that their is a dropoff after that point.

We have Jags, Jets, Lions, Colts, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, etc. all at least in a position of taking a really hard look at QB this draft.  With so much likely interest I would be surprised if we couldn't find a trade partner.  The only wildcard ahead of us in my opinion is Miami, though I think it would be hard for them to pass up an offer from the Bengals to take Sewell/Slater and only drop 2 spots where they have a lot of options (WR, second LT, trade out again) etc.

I guess my point is that I find it hard to believe that QB ends up being top 3 picks this year, especially so when there are very talented Tackle prospects available in this draft.  We are obvious trading partners at our position in the draft (**** even a team targeting a top LT prospect, nvm QB).  The top of this class just doesn't seem to align with our needs and this more than recent years is an ideal time to trade back. 

That said, if the front office truly believes they have a can't miss superstar level prospect, they shouldn't hesitate to take them at 4 regardless of position (including WR).  The best part about taking the best possible players is that it offers future flexibility, whether that be trades or letting players walk for comp picks.  Even taking a QB at 4 is completely defensible if the front office thinks this player has the potential to be a Matt Ryan level player.  Anyone who believes they wouldn't want the next Matt Ryan on the roster already is honestly kidding themselves.  And that's no slight to Ryan, its just the reality of building the best team through the draft and allowing yourself the best flexibility moving forward (including trading either player 2 years from now).  And before anyone compares this to GB taking Jordan Love...If in 2 or 3 years Rodgers retires and they have a Matt Ryan level player to take the reigns, no one will be B****ing and moaning about wasting a pick 2 or 3 years prior.  Especially when they had every opportunity to win that game.

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I'm ready for anything that can kill the culture of suck that's been plaguing this team for the longest time, (ie. blowing second-half leads, playing down to competition, losing to second-string QBs, giving up 3rd and longs, bad tackling, stupid mistakes that shouldn't happen, especially at crucial moments, etc.

If this GM has a plan and going BPA is part of it, I'm down for whatever.

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On 1/26/2021 at 10:19 AM, FalconFanSince1970 said:

BPA? Are you really ready?

I've been ready and have been screaming BPA for years. Every draft, every round, every pick. Even at positions of strength. Including QB. I truly believe if you take that approach you will get stacked in a hurry. For decades we've had a needs based approached. Dimi acknowledged that several times in the past. Needs based drafting can get you in trouble. See Sackmaker, Jelly, King Konz, Bustley and Talk McKinney. We passed on several beasts to draft them.
 
It was music to my ears to hear Fonty say that BPA is his philosophy. BPA is in the eyes of the beholders, which in our case will be Fonty, Arty and their staffs. BPA is usually a group of players that are closely rated. In the 2021 draft the BPA group at the four spot could include Sewell, Wilson, Surtain, Parsons, Chase and Smith. I'd be OK with either one of em. Chances are a couple of them will also fill a need. Draft for the future and fill gaping holes with veteran FAs.

Absolutely right, this also shows how trading down can still be seen as a BPA strategy, if you have 6 prospects you would take at 4 and none have been taken and the opportunity to trade down to 7 and pick up additional value, you do it.  Alternatively, if there are only 2 prospects you would take with the 4 spot that are similarly graded and then there is a drop down of several guys you would consider at pick 10 value, you may not trade down because the additional later pick value doesn't offset or bring greater value than taking the higher level prospect now.

BPA does not mean picking at your spot and taking the highest level player on your board, it means maximizing the value of every pick you make regardless of your current strengths at the moment including evaluating trade ups or down.  Just my 2c.

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1 hour ago, TTU Falcon said:

I would be very shocked if the top 3 picks were QB.  I'll be honestly extremely shocked if the Bengals don't try to move up to 2 or 3 to take their top LT choice whether Sewell or the Northwestern kid (I think Slater).  I believe we have a pretty decent chance of trading back as their are a lot of teams wanting a QB and out of the top 3 (Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields) I feel there is a consensus opinion that their is a dropoff after that point.

We have Jags, Jets, Lions, Colts, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, etc. all at least in a position of taking a really hard look at QB this draft.  With so much likely interest I would be surprised if we couldn't find a trade partner.  The only wildcard ahead of us in my opinion is Miami, though I think it would be hard for them to pass up an offer from the Bengals to take Sewell/Slater and only drop 2 spots where they have a lot of options (WR, second LT, trade out again) etc.

I guess my point is that I find it hard to believe that QB ends up being top 3 picks this year, especially so when there are very talented Tackle prospects available in this draft.  We are obvious trading partners at our position in the draft (**** even a team targeting a top LT prospect, nvm QB).  The top of this class just doesn't seem to align with our needs and this more than recent years is an ideal time to trade back. 

That said, if the front office truly believes they have a can't miss superstar level prospect, they shouldn't hesitate to take them at 4 regardless of position (including WR).  The best part about taking the best possible players is that it offers future flexibility, whether that be trades or letting players walk for comp picks.  Even taking a QB at 4 is completely defensible if the front office thinks this player has the potential to be a Matt Ryan level player.  Anyone who believes they wouldn't want the next Matt Ryan on the roster already is honestly kidding themselves.  And that's no slight to Ryan, its just the reality of building the best team through the draft and allowing yourself the best flexibility moving forward (including trading either player 2 years from now).  And before anyone compares this to GB taking Jordan Love...If in 2 or 3 years Rodgers retires and they have a Matt Ryan level player to take the reigns, no one will be B****ing and moaning about wasting a pick 2 or 3 years prior.  Especially when they had every opportunity to win that game.

I will say this, as I’ve said countless times in relation to Love, the Packers took him with pick 26, basically a high 2 investment, not pick 4. 
 

Our wasting that pick on a QB would be throwing away any chance we have to be better in 21, and likely 22 as well. Drafting a clipboard holder at that spot is no different than drafting a mammoth bust.

 

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