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The Your 2021 World Series Champions Braves Thread


Mr. Hoopah!
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6 minutes ago, Optimus_Cr1m35 said:

It's gonna get worse too.

 

For the most part, the mortgage industry did "ok" during the last bull run, there weren't a ton of "frivolous" cash out refis. We saw mostly home improvement and debt consolidation stuff. Or, just refi for rate and/or term.

 

With that said, people definitely over-borrowed. 100%. Some of that was because the housing prices were up, so they didn't really have a choice. But we did see a bunch of high DTI loans (40%), a bunch of investments, etc. The issue with those is that it just takes a small nudge to fall behind. Just a fridge dying or a tire needing replaced. And once you're behind, you're stuck because so much of your money goes to your payment.

 

I bought during that period, but I had a ton of equity from the old place. Bought for $240k, sold for $560k, rolled a bunch into the new place. Bought the new place for $618k, Zestimate (take it with a grain of salt) is $723k without accounting for the pool or solar. But... we have a dip**** of a neighbor who bought for $450k, cashed out, and is foreclosing now because the payments are behind. Can't wait for that dude to move. He sucks.

The value of our home has literally doubled. We discussed looking into a new home, but we decided that this madness is going to come crashing down at some point really soon and we didn't want to end up paying double what a house is worth when this bubble bursts. 

We're in a really good position financially. Both of us have great jobs, we care very little debt, and have plenty of savings. 

We're just going to invest in the home we have and look at a new home again in a few years. 

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Weeeee twitter is full of everyone buying Musk's BS hook, line, and sinker. 

"Billionaires getting to degrade the fabric of society" is about to pass "Billionaires shouldn't exist for financial reasons" 

 

Just the absolute scourge of the Earth. 

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56 minutes ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

The value of our home has literally doubled. We discussed looking into a new home, but we decided that this madness is going to come crashing down at some point really soon and we didn't want to end up paying double what a house is worth when this bubble bursts. 

We're in a really good position financially. Both of us have great jobs, we care very little debt, and have plenty of savings. 

We're just going to invest in the home we have and look at a new home again in a few years. 

If you don't need to move then you definitely shouldn't.

I am willing not bet that your current interest rate is probably half of what rates are currently.

The market is starting to level off in some areas but it is still crazy.

Right now this is the worst time in recent memory to be in market to buy.

 

 

 

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One telltale sign of it being a ****ty buying market is the fact that you're not seeing as many operations jobs posted meaning if you are in the mortgage business and you're looking for a job you're going to find far more sales positions than processing, underwriting, closing etc. positions.

Lenders aren't getting the applications that they were.

Some places are hiring more sales people than actual operations.

Which for someone in operations like myself is a little scary.

 

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2 hours ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

The value of our home has literally doubled. We discussed looking into a new home, but we decided that this madness is going to come crashing down at some point really soon and we didn't want to end up paying double what a house is worth when this bubble bursts. 

We're in a really good position financially. Both of us have great jobs, we care very little debt, and have plenty of savings. 

We're just going to invest in the home we have and look at a new home again in a few years. 

We are in a similar position. Our house has doubled in price, but even if we sold it, we’re not going to find another house as good in nearly as good of a location for anything less than we sell this one for.

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2 hours ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

The value of our home has literally doubled. We discussed looking into a new home, but we decided that this madness is going to come crashing down at some point really soon and we didn't want to end up paying double what a house is worth when this bubble bursts. 

We're in a really good position financially. Both of us have great jobs, we care very little debt, and have plenty of savings. 

We're just going to invest in the home we have and look at a new home again in a few years. 

I don't see values dropping much, if any. The indicators that we saw in 2007/08 aren't there. The issue then was the sub-prime loans foreclosed at a pretty high rate, and that flooded the market with foreclosed properties. The banks had too much inventory. The market was just saturated.

 

Now, I don't see inventory being that high, and even with an influx of foreclosures, you'll see those houses hit the market then sell. Some of those are going to people waiting for a chance to buy something, but the vast majority are going to get gobbled up by corps, which isn't great, but it'll slow that drop in value.

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5 hours ago, Serge said:

If Democrats spent more time calling out J.D. Vance, the main thing that would do is announce to Peter Thiel that his monster is ready for national politics.

He was the second-most moderate of the Republican candidates here. The second and third place finishers were running neck-and-neck for first place until they almost came to blows in a debate. Both were hard on Trump's nads, so of course he endorsed Vance (who once compared him to Hitler) because then, regardless of who won, he could claim to be the reason for their victory.

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1 hour ago, falconsd56 said:

One telltale sign of it being a ****ty buying market is the fact that you're not seeing as many operations jobs posted meaning if you are in the mortgage business and you're looking for a job you're going to find far more sales positions than processing, underwriting, closing etc. positions.

Lenders aren't getting the applications that they were.

Some places are hiring more sales people than actual operations.

Which for someone in operations like myself is a little scary.

 

seeing operational layoffs as well...

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21 minutes ago, Optimus_Cr1m35 said:

I don't see values dropping much, if any. The indicators that we saw in 2007/08 aren't there. The issue then was the sub-prime loans foreclosed at a pretty high rate, and that flooded the market with foreclosed properties. The banks had too much inventory. The market was just saturated.

 

Now, I don't see inventory being that high, and even with an influx of foreclosures, you'll see those houses hit the market then sell. Some of those are going to people waiting for a chance to buy something, but the vast majority are going to get gobbled up by corps, which isn't great, but it'll slow that drop in value.

It's amazing that there's barely a peep about asset management companies like Blackrock snapping up so many single family homes and what will essentially make home ownership for the middle class totally out of reach. 

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26 minutes ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

It's amazing that there's barely a peep about asset management companies like Blackrock snapping up so many single family homes and what will essentially make home ownership for the middle class totally out of reach. 

 

Maybe @Optimus_Cr1m35 can answer this for me: isn't that a huge part of the reason why there's not a ton of inventory? Like, so many properties are either owned by big corporate interests or private owners and being used for rentals/air bnb's/etc.? It's not that there's not enough homes to actually house everyone, but just not enough on the market for sale. Is that right?

Also seems like that could impact any impending "crash." Seems like the big corporate interest, at least, would be more prepared to weather the ups and downs, so not like they'll be a flood of cheap houses coming online if prices drop.

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45 minutes ago, Optimus_Cr1m35 said:

I don't see values dropping much, if any. The indicators that we saw in 2007/08 aren't there. The issue then was the sub-prime loans foreclosed at a pretty high rate, and that flooded the market with foreclosed properties. The banks had too much inventory. The market was just saturated.

 

Now, I don't see inventory being that high, and even with an influx of foreclosures, you'll see those houses hit the market then sell. Some of those are going to people waiting for a chance to buy something, but the vast majority are going to get gobbled up by corps, which isn't great, but it'll slow that drop in value.

We are starting to see more inventory here in Phoenix and it doesn't seem to be from the foreclosure/short sale section yet....which is good.

I am noticing some pretty weird price fluctuations in our area though 

 

For example 

https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/12637-N-Columbine-Dr-85029/home/27434624

 

This is pretty close to our house....when we walk the dogs we usually go past it....yes it is green ...and yes it is as ugly in person as in the picture. I kept saying that there was no way that it would sell for that much

 

 

https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/12410-N-Columbine-Dr-85029/home/26867231

This is on the same street as the other one ..we actually looked at this one when we were looking....we could have gotten it for like 230k but it needed work.....alot of it.

 

The house is the house that it practically shares a driveway with .

https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/12414-N-Columbine-Dr-85029/home/27205069

So yeah...the market is still all over the place.

 

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17 minutes ago, The Monarch said:

 

Maybe @Optimus_Cr1m35 can answer this for me: isn't that a huge part of the reason why there's not a ton of inventory? Like, so many properties are either owned by big corporate interests or private owners and being used for rentals/air bnb's/etc.? It's not that there's not enough homes to actually house everyone, but just not enough on the market for sale. Is that right?

Also seems like that could impact any impending "crash." Seems like the big corporate interest, at least, would be more prepared to weather the ups and downs, so not like they'll be a flood of cheap houses coming online if prices drop.

Plus if there is a crash, companies like Blackrock will be the first at the trough for the inevitable government bailouts. 

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37 minutes ago, The Monarch said:

 

Maybe @Optimus_Cr1m35 can answer this for me: isn't that a huge part of the reason why there's not a ton of inventory? Like, so many properties are either owned by big corporate interests or private owners and being used for rentals/air bnb's/etc.? It's not that there's not enough homes to actually house everyone, but just not enough on the market for sale. Is that right?

Also seems like that could impact any impending "crash." Seems like the big corporate interest, at least, would be more prepared to weather the ups and downs, so not like they'll be a flood of cheap houses coming online if prices drop.

Yeah, we're seeing a pretty high number of "investments". @falconsd56 can probably chime in on what he's seeing there. Not "a lot", but definitely more than normal. People are buying places and renting them. And Blackstone has really ramped up. They have trucks driving around by me looking for places to buy.

 

Inventory has increased in the past month or so, but nothing like normal conditions.

 

And you're correct, the benefit to the companies buying properties is that they can weather the storm a bit if things get rocky. Not for long tho. They generally pull from a warehouse line of credit that has a much higher rate than a borrower would see, so if things went south and renters vanished, they would have a hard time holding onto properties. Zillow got caught there, and lost $880 million last year because they couldn't get them sold fast enough.

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37 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

We are starting to see more inventory here in Phoenix and it doesn't seem to be from the foreclosure/short sale section yet....which is good.

I am noticing some pretty weird price fluctuations in our area though 

 

For example 

https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/12637-N-Columbine-Dr-85029/home/27434624

 

This is pretty close to our house....when we walk the dogs we usually go past it....yes it is green ...and yes it is as ugly in person as in the picture. I kept saying that there was no way that it would sell for that much

 

 

https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/12410-N-Columbine-Dr-85029/home/26867231

This is on the same street as the other one ..we actually looked at this one when we were looking....we could have gotten it for like 230k but it needed work.....alot of it.

 

The house is the house that it practically shares a driveway with .

https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/12414-N-Columbine-Dr-85029/home/27205069

So yeah...the market is still all over the place.

 

It's bananas. The house on the corner by me sold for $600k, and it's literally half the size of mine, which we got for $618k. We looked at some, thought "This is good value", looked at identical houses and they were overpriced.

 

Just depends on the listing agent at this point.

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1 hour ago, eatcorn said:

Outstanding work by you, her, and everyone who played a role! Celebrations!

I had to leave work early, her graduation party is tonight. I’ve been so busy and stressed with work and work deadlines that it had not sunk in that she was graduating until this afternoon. 

I, uh, had a moment in my office. 

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16 minutes ago, Mr. Hoopah! said:

I had to leave work early, her graduation party is tonight. I’ve been so busy and stressed with work and work deadlines that it had not sunk in that she was graduating until this afternoon. 

I, uh, had a moment in my office. 

I just want one of them to get their driver's license so I can stop being a taxi driver... Between Ballet, Dance, Horse lessons, soccer, tennis, plus all the other activities, I'm over it...

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