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The ABF Classic Film Series: The Deer Hunter (1978) Thread


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1 hour ago, lostone said:

He is the worst... just an awful person.  

I don’t know about an awful person, but he’s definitely naive and clueless about the current political environment.  I hope that Senate Dems remind Manchin of this after every single GOP filibuster and especially after the GOP ends the filibuster when they get the majority back.  

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At this point, maybe the best option available to Schumer is to have all of those votes on major legislation and let the GOP filibuster all of them, and at each step highlight that fact to Joe Manchin.  And then go ahead and have a vote on changing the filibuster rules — maybe not a complete elimination but at least a “standing filibuster” and put the onus on the minority to sustain it instead of the current situation where the majority has to break it.  And let Manchin and Sinema and any others go on record supporting the filibuster.  In other words, just have a very open and public demonstration of the problems with the filibuster and then have a vote and put as much public pressure as possible on those wanting to keep it.  Might not work in the end, but at the very least it will force Manchin/Sinema to publicly defend their terrible and naive arguments.  

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11 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

At this point, maybe the best option available to Schumer is to have all of those votes on major legislation and let the GOP filibuster all of them, and at each step highlight that fact to Joe Manchin.  And then go ahead and have a vote on changing the filibuster rules — maybe not a complete elimination but at least a “standing filibuster” and put the onus on the minority to sustain it instead of the current situation where the majority has to break it.  And let Manchin and Sinema and any others go on record supporting the filibuster.  In other words, just have a very open and public demonstration of the problems with the filibuster and then have a vote and put as much public pressure as possible on those wanting to keep it.  Might not work in the end, but at the very least it will force Manchin/Sinema to publicly defend their terrible and naive arguments.  

Also this…

Because he doesn't support getting rid of the filibuster, Manchin urged Senate leadership to update and pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, a narrower elections bill that has the support of Republican Rep. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The proposal is a far less sweeping bill than S.1, but brings back major pieces of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, including a provision that requires states to consult with the federal government before making major changes to their voting rules.

^^^Call his bluff.  Put that bill on the Senate floor for a vote and watch the GOP block it by filibuster.  And then make Manchin defend his naivety.  

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7 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

At this point, maybe the best option available to Schumer is to have all of those votes on major legislation and let the GOP filibuster all of them, and at each step highlight that fact to Joe Manchin.  And then go ahead and have a vote on changing the filibuster rules — maybe not a complete elimination but at least a “standing filibuster” and put the onus on the minority to sustain it instead of the current situation where the majority has to break it.  And let Manchin and Sinema and any others go on record supporting the filibuster.  In other words, just have a very open and public demonstration of the problems with the filibuster and then have a vote and put as much public pressure as possible on those wanting to keep it.  Might not work in the end, but at the very least it will force Manchin/Sinema to publicly defend their terrible and naive arguments.  

The fact the Sinema wasn't effectively finished when she did a performative dance while voting down a minimum wage increase tells me that the system may be beyond hope. 

You scoffed at many of us who said that Biden is going to 28-3 the election, and that's fair. But it certainly appears that the Democrats are going to 28-3 this legislative term. They implored us all to get out and vote, saying that it was the most important election of our lifetimes. And it worked. They got the White House and congress, turning states like GA and AZ blue in the process. If they don't pass anything of substance, good luck in getting people to buy that line again in '22 or '24.

 

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Hey, at least the Democrats have their future 1/6 commissions to look forward to. That's what 2022/2024 voters are going to want to hear about, especially after corporate media talking heads spend four years talking about unmasking the Republican representatives who helped plan it.

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Dimitroff built a roster destined to rot a little more every year, going from a Super Bowl contender to a 4-12 team that can't even sign its draft picks. At least they're not going to try to keep the old core on life support another year or two.

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36 minutes ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

The fact the Sinema wasn't effectively finished when she did a performative dance while voting down a minimum wage increase tells me that the system may be beyond hope. 

You scoffed at many of us who said that Biden is going to 28-3 the election, and that's fair. But it certainly appears that the Democrats are going to 28-3 this legislative term. They implored us all to get out and vote, saying that it was the most important election of our lifetimes. And it worked. They got the White House and congress, turning states like GA and AZ blue in the process. If they don't pass anything of substance, good luck in getting people to buy that line again in '22 or '24.

 

The point I was making about the 28-3 election thing was more about false sense of certainty and the need to think probabilistically about things like elections.  It wasn’t that I thought Trump had no chance of winning, it was that I realized all of the data pointed to Biden winning with a small (10% according to 538) chance of a Trump win.  Yet people on these boards were declaring that Biden absolutely, positively, definitively undeniably without any question whatsoever was going to lose.  And I recognize some of that was more of “avoiding a jinx” thing.  But still, people speak about these things with far, far more certainty than is warranted.  

And Manchin/Sinema just allowing the entire agenda to fail because of GOP filibuster probably will hurt Dems in next year’s elections, I suspect.  Speaking of the midterms, I still say the biggest influence will be the state of the economy and Biden’s approval ratings next summer.  Funny enough, I was just playing around with a midterm forecast and it showed that the president’s approval in August was the single best predictor of midterm outcomes.  But Biden’s approval is probably also going to depend on the economy and what legislation Dems passed.  So it’s all kind of interrelated.  That’s just a way of saying that I agree with you, though I think they will get more credit for the stimulus and infrastructure and other things passed via reconciliation if the economy is doing really well next year.  So it’s not all policy.  A lot of it is the economy and presidential approval.  

Still, according to my model (which is NOT final and is VERY tentative right now), even if Biden’s approval is at 52% next year, Dems will still lose about 24 seats in the House.  And I’m not sure in today’s political environment that we can expect a president’s approval to be much higher than that.  I see a lot of talk about how Dems might hold their majorities next year given the right circumstances, and that’s possible but doesn’t seem very likely at this point in time.  

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10 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

The point I was making about the 28-3 election thing was more about false sense of certainty and the need to think probabilistically about things like elections.  It wasn’t that I thought Trump had no chance of winning, it was that I realized all of the data pointed to Biden winning with a small (10% according to 538) chance of a Trump win.  Yet people on these boards were declaring that Biden absolutely, positively, definitively undeniably without any question whatsoever was going to lose.  And I recognize some of that was more of “avoiding a jinx” thing.  But still, people speak about these things with far, far more certainty than is warranted.  

And Manchin/Sinema just allowing the entire agenda to fail because of GOP filibuster probably will hurt Dems in next year’s elections, I suspect.  Speaking of the midterms, I still say the biggest influence will be the state of the economy and Biden’s approval ratings next summer.  Funny enough, I was just playing around with a midterm forecast and it showed that the president’s approval in August was the single best predictor of midterm outcomes.  But Biden’s approval is probably also going to depend on the economy and what legislation Dems passed.  So it’s all kind of interrelated.  That’s just a way of saying that I agree with you, though I think they will get more credit for the stimulus and infrastructure and other things passed via reconciliation if the economy is doing really well next year.  So it’s not all policy.  A lot of it is the economy and presidential approval.  

Still, according to my model (which is NOT final and is VERY tentative right now), even if Biden’s approval is at 52% next year, Dems will still lose about 24 seats in the House.  And I’m not sure in today’s political environment that we can expect a president’s approval to be much higher than that.  I see a lot of talk about how Dems might hold their majorities next year given the right circumstances, and that’s possible but doesn’t seem very likely at this point in time.  

Does your model account for the changes in voting laws in places like GA and TX? Like when one of those red state legislatures arbitrarily decide that a Democrat cheated so they simply overturn the results?

Because that's the kind up stuff that's going to happen when no voting rights legislation is passed. But Manchin seems to value his power as a "swing vote" over the prospect of permanent minority rule. 

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  • Mr. Hoopah! changed the title to The ABF Classic Film Series: The Deer Hunter (1978) Thread

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