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Really trying here to envision the best for Arthur Smith, Falcons - Steve Hummer


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If this Arthur Smith transplant takes, if the Falcons can successfully bring just parts of his offensive vision to life — at my age, this is what passes for fantasy — what a grand new day that would be. I hear crowds cheering, birds singing and the voices of No. 1 broadcast teams returned to Atlanta.

 

Some of the numbers accompanying the Falcons new coach to town from Tennessee are like candles in the darkness. Granted, it is difficult to fully predict the same kind of production blossoming from these Falcons, but we owe the new guy the benefit of trying.

One would hope that Arthur A — Blank — hired Arthur B — Smith — because he was doing something better in Nashville than what was happening in Atlanta. One supposes that among the core principles we hear so much about in everything Blank does is this: Upgrade from Dirk Koetter.

For two seasons, Smith coordinated the Titans offense. Working with an all-day-long running back — Derrick Henry — and a reclaimed quarterback — Ryan Tannehill — he managed many things the Falcons couldn’t behind their OC Koetter.

And, so, we try to envision the Falcons of the near future in light of what the new guy has done:

What is this, do we see an offense of beautiful and intricate design, one that defies prediction and keeps a defense on its heels with a play-action passing game that is filthy? (After Buffalo, the Titans had the most passing yards this season off play-action).

Of course, to make that work will require a believable running game. Add together the yardage of the Falcons top three rushers in 2020 and you’re still 600 shy of Henry’s 2,027 yards. Whatever became of Todd Gurley, anyway?

Yes, running the ball matters. It doesn’t always pay off – Henry was held to 40 yards and the Titans limited to 13 points in a playoff loss to Baltimore a week ago. But there remains a certain fundamental importance to running, that being to football what 4/4 time is to music. So, perhaps envision the Falcons investing in a running back by at least the second day of the draft.

And dare Falcons fans look for a team they can actually watch at the end with eyes wide open, rather than looking away from the inevitable, impending crash? (Tennessee was fifth this season in second-half scoring, the Falcons 24th).

Here’s looking ahead and hoping to find a team that doesn’t treat just getting into the red zone like the end of the workday. It seems that getting those last few yards are as hard as getting the last three outs in baseball. And the Falcons just couldn’t convincingly close. (The Falcons were 26th in red zone scoring efficiency, the Titans No. 2).

Envision an offense that moves the ball with clarity and authority. Say, like a Tennessee offense this year that had twice the number of rushing touchdowns as the Falcons (26 to 13) and was a tick better in converting on both third down (45.4% to the Falcons 43.9%) and fourth (64.7% to 57.6%).

Optimistically, imagine a coach squeezing the tube and getting the last best days from Matt Ryan. Smith doesn’t need to work nearly the magic he did with Tannehill. In six seasons with Miami, Tannehill was a borderline bust. He hooks up with Tennessee and its new offensive coordinator in 2019, and he is the comeback player of the year. Leads the league in quarterback rating that year, ranks fifth this season.

Ryan doesn’t require nearly that much reno work. He doesn’t have to throw for nearly 5,000 yards as he did in his MVP season of 2016, just be somewhat more efficient and circumspect with his throws (he’s had 25 interceptions in 31 games these last two seasons while Tannehill has had 13 in 28 games).

In fact, might we envision getting more out of Ryan while he actually throws less?

And don’t worry Calvin Ridley. We still see plenty ahead for you. The Smith fellow isn’t running the single wing. Receivers can prosper in his offense — witness second-year man A.J. Brown in Tennessee, all-rookie one year, a Pro Bowl pick the next.

When hiring a new coach, it’s always nice to indulge in these best-case scenarios as long as possible, at least until his introductory press conference.

And, oh, yes, it would be nice when looking forward to see the Falcons playing a little defense, too. That still matters on some level in this game.

https://www.ajc.com/sports/further-review-blog/really-trying-here-to-envision-the-best-for-arthur-smith-falcons/D4DO6ALTMJHOFP6HFW66LVIOOQ/

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51 minutes ago, Ians0280 said:

The article says you muat have a believable running game to sell the play action pass.then it says only buffalo had more yards off play action.as far as i know buffalo has no running game to speak of.i could be wrong though.

Shanahan certainly disputes that notion.  The idea is to be committed to running the ball, not necessarily good at it.  Committing to run plays means the linebackers can't just sit back.  The safeties can't just sink deep.  It keeps both on the balls of their feet and makes them hesitate, which of course opens up both the run and the pass.

I think it's nonsense.  You commit to running the football and you do it win lose or draw.  And you design your offense around the blocking and spacing assignments in the run game.  Shanahan does it.  La Fleur does it.  Stefanski does it.  The elder Shanahan and Kubiak did it.  Not all of them had identically effective run games, but they all do it.

Also, Arthur Smith does it.  Because it works.

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I mean, don't get me wrong.  You can't run for negative yards every play and have it work.  But wide zone schemes tend to get positive yardage, which helps the play caller stay committed to the run.  You can still guess situationally what they might do, but they can out-guess you too.  That's where the fun part comes in.

It's boring when everyone sees 11 or 10 personnel and they know you're going to pass.  That's easy for the defense and frustrating for you.  Looking at you Dirk Koetter.

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2 hours ago, Ians0280 said:

The article says you muat have a believable running game to sell the play action pass.then it says only buffalo had more yards off play action.as far as i know buffalo has no running game to speak of.i could be wrong though.

You would be correct. It’s a myth you have to be a good running team or “establish the run” for PA to be effective. This is one where the numbers very clearly tell the story. Most announcers have not caught up to this I’m sure you’ve heard on game days

That said, his notion that there remains a certain fundamental element to running in football is correct. A good run game has value. You obviously never want an ineffective running game.. it’s just that if you do have a bad one you don’t need to abandon PA whatsoever, it will still work

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3 hours ago, JDaveG said:

Shanahan certainly disputes that notion.  The idea is to be committed to running the ball, not necessarily good at it.  Committing to run plays means the linebackers can't just sit back.  The safeties can't just sink deep.  It keeps both on the balls of their feet and makes them hesitate, which of course opens up both the run and the pass.

I think it's nonsense.  You commit to running the football and you do it win lose or draw.  And you design your offense around the blocking and spacing assignments in the run game.  Shanahan does it.  La Fleur does it.  Stefanski does it.  The elder Shanahan and Kubiak did it.  Not all of them had identically effective run games, but they all do it.

Also, Arthur Smith does it.  Because it works.

 

Yep, Ole' Mike Shanahan was a master of it.

 

He was able to have an effective run game most of the time with just about anybody.

 

Does anyone remember Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson or Reuben Droughns???

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