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The truth about that number 4 pick


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5 hours ago, Rings said:

How is he generational when he isn’t even the best QB in his draft class?

He is and his career will prove so .. and go look back at his hs recruiting any other year he’d be the #1 prospect by a mile him and Trevor just happen to be born the same year 

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.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should

It's a good year to have high picks in each round with fresh sets of eyes from a new GM and coach who can look at our situation and our team without bias. 

True things about the #4 pick: 1. It is one pick after the #3 pick. 2. It is one pick before the #5 pick. Prove me wrong.

10 hours ago, JDaveG said:

.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should insist we must get a QB at 4 no matter what.  So the truth is that nobody should be surprised if someone like Fields falls to us and we take him, and nobody should be surprised if we're down to the 3rd or 4th QB and we don't, and nobody should be surprised if Fields falls to us and we pass.

The reason for all this is simple.  The team's math is not based on fans wish casting Matt Ryan out of town (or for him to retire as a Falcon).  The team is looking at where the holes on the team are and which players will best improve the team with those picks.  For better or worse, QB is not really a hole.  We could use a backup, we do not need a starter.  So the FO is not going to go into the draft saying "QB or bust."  But neither are they going into the draft saying "we cannot under any circumstances take a QB at no. 4."  

They are going to try as best they can to fill the major holes in FA, but we're hamstrung by the cap this year, and then they are going to try to maximize talent on the team without reaching for perceived need in the draft.  Fontenot has been a part of a Saints organization that took a d-lineman or o-lineman with their first draft pick 4 of the past 5 years, and 6 of the past 10.  They have also drafted 2 corners, a safety and a WR in that 10 year period, and they ended up trading the WR away and lost the safety (Vacarro) in FA.  That team builds by acquiring talent, and specifically they built this current team by fortifying the trenches.  I don't think Fontenot is going to come over here, look at this roster, and say "we must get a QB."  I also don't think he's going to leave the most talented player on the board simply because we don't need a QB today.  I would not at all be surprised to see us take Sewell if he is there at 4 either.

So don't be surprised at whatever happens.  People saying "we must do this" or "we can't do that" are missing the boat.  Fontenot and Smith will do whatever they think makes the team better, and we'll find out what that is on draft day and really not before then.

Well thought out.

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9 hours ago, JDaveG said:

I don't know that it will.  If we take a QB, then I'm assuming the owner is going to be patient and understand Rome is not built in a day.  Taking a QB is not a "win now" move.

The only people who think it is are those who blame Matt Ryan for everything that goes wrong with this team.  And those people are stupid.

Well said sir.

 

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10 hours ago, JDaveG said:

.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should insist we must get a QB at 4 no matter what.  So the truth is that nobody should be surprised if someone like Fields falls to us and we take him, and nobody should be surprised if we're down to the 3rd or 4th QB and we don't, and nobody should be surprised if Fields falls to us and we pass.

The reason for all this is simple.  The team's math is not based on fans wish casting Matt Ryan out of town (or for him to retire as a Falcon).  The team is looking at where the holes on the team are and which players will best improve the team with those picks.  For better or worse, QB is not really a hole.  We could use a backup, we do not need a starter.  So the FO is not going to go into the draft saying "QB or bust."  But neither are they going into the draft saying "we cannot under any circumstances take a QB at no. 4."  

They are going to try as best they can to fill the major holes in FA, but we're hamstrung by the cap this year, and then they are going to try to maximize talent on the team without reaching for perceived need in the draft.  Fontenot has been a part of a Saints organization that took a d-lineman or o-lineman with their first draft pick 4 of the past 5 years, and 6 of the past 10.  They have also drafted 2 corners, a safety and a WR in that 10 year period, and they ended up trading the WR away and lost the safety (Vacarro) in FA.  That team builds by acquiring talent, and specifically they built this current team by fortifying the trenches.  I don't think Fontenot is going to come over here, look at this roster, and say "we must get a QB."  I also don't think he's going to leave the most talented player on the board simply because we don't need a QB today.  I would not at all be surprised to see us take Sewell if he is there at 4 either.

So don't be surprised at whatever happens.  People saying "we must do this" or "we can't do that" are missing the boat.  Fontenot and Smith will do whatever they think makes the team better, and we'll find out what that is on draft day and really not before then.

Draft a qb and keep it moving...

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2 hours ago, shockerfalcon said:

If Fontenot is anything like Loomis he will build from the inside out. In my opinion Loomis tended to draft scheme specific vs BPA. There have been plenty of times pundits and fans accused NO of reaching for a player or making head scratching FA signings but obviously it has worked for them. Their scouting department has been really good at finding players that fit both need and scheme. As much as we hate NO around here you can’t deny their front office has run circles around ours and many others around the league. 

I remember this board laughing at the Ryan Ramczyk pick the same year we picked Takk. Fast forward four years, one is an All-Pro, one didn't finish his rookie contract with the team. Falcons also picked Duke Riley with Alex Anzalone on the board. One started in the post season, another was traded three years in. The list goes on.

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1 hour ago, NashvilleFalcon01 said:

I remember this board laughing at the Ryan Ramczyk pick the same year we picked Takk. Fast forward four years, one is an All-Pro, one didn't finish his rookie contract with the team. Falcons also picked Duke Riley with Alex Anzalone on the board. One started in the post season, another was traded three years in. The list goes on.

Anzalone is terrible

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8 hours ago, NashvilleFalcon01 said:

I remember this board laughing at the Ryan Ramczyk pick the same year we picked Takk. Fast forward four years, one is an All-Pro, one didn't finish his rookie contract with the team. Falcons also picked Duke Riley with Alex Anzalone on the board. One started in the post season, another was traded three years in. The list goes on.

Coaching matters though. Riley is playing well on another team now. Because he was never coddled like Vic. 

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20 hours ago, Duff_Man said:

True things about the #4 pick:

1. It is one pick after the #3 pick.

2. It is one pick before the #5 pick.

Prove me wrong.

That's honestly the best.. and most honest analysis I've read all offseason.

*** Side note, no one knows what we're going to do.  Sit back and enjoy.  Have a Coke

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15 hours ago, Herr Doktor said:

The draft is not as interesting to me as the moves we will make prior to the draft and shortly there after.  Whatever we do, 7+ solid players will be selected.  What we choose to do then, who we invite, who we release and who we sign will be far more interesting.  We will see what kind of team we will be building and what happens long-term. 

Preach!!

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19 hours ago, thanat0s said:

My question, too. In fact, if they did draft him, my immediate thought would be, they did that to get the locals to show up on Sunday, not win games. 
 

It’d be entirely a PR move to get the local kid. 

If we draft him at 4 without trading up I might not think that.

But if we trade up to get anyone, this will be my exact thought. The new FO will be looking to make a big splash and stamp their name to something to excite the masses.

This draft is going to define this team for a very long time I expect. Moving up will indicate to me that it's just a flash in the pan FO trying to sell tickets and generate immediate hype (when have we seen this before?).

Otherwise, I plan on being very objective. These guys will do their homework (I hope). It should be fun to watch along with acquisitions and cuts along the way.

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On 1/18/2021 at 11:23 AM, JDaveG said:

Who is going to be disappointed and why?

A whole lot of Falcon fans if he turns out to be what many say he can be. It’s not everyday or every year you have the opportunity to grab a QB that has some of Mahomes and A Rodgers qualities. A non QB will not have or define the long term success of this franchise like Lawernce Wilson or maybe Fields. It’s going to be a pissing contest with all the opinions until draft day. I don’t know if there’s a right or wrong way to know until it’s plays out. I’m all in for Wilson based on studying his body of work. 

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