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The truth about that number 4 pick


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2 hours ago, thanat0s said:

I’m just talking about at pick four, as the OP was addressing. Sewell is the bpa there by all accounts, if one assumes QB isn’t a need.

And I don’t agree at all that Matthews can’t play guard, but those are just our opinions. There is no doubt that adding Sewell immediately injects our line with a huge amount of new talent. 

He’s the obvious guy if we pick at 4, and don’t consider that handful of defenders worth the pick. Give me the closest thing to a sure thing with that pick, regardless of position. 

We have to nail pick 4.  Sewell is a can't miss. Barring crazy off field drama or hideous injury.

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.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should

It's a good year to have high picks in each round with fresh sets of eyes from a new GM and coach who can look at our situation and our team without bias. 

True things about the #4 pick: 1. It is one pick after the #3 pick. 2. It is one pick before the #5 pick. Prove me wrong.

When I see the words “the truth” on this board, as your title suggests, I immediately look to see whose posting :lol:.

We have quite a few who even have that type of slogan in their board names hahaha, and usually it’s an indicator that whatever they post is a total load of bogus crap served up to fit their agenda. 
 

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3 hours ago, falconsd56 said:

The reality is we're 4 and 12 football team... We like to think that we have more talent than that and that we should have won more games... which I think both statements would be very accurate but at the end of the day we were four and 12 and finish on a five game losing streak.

There is a reason why we hired a new GM and a new head coach.

To your point I think taking anything off of the table would be pretty silly.... I think outside of punter, kicker, Long snapper, punt returner...all options are on the table.

Outside of those clear positions....I think TE and receiver will be two other positions that we stay away from in the first... atleast at 4. 

Everything else is possible.

I understand your point. But I think this falcons season is the aberration to "you are what your record is". We had opportunity to win and in most cases we were winning in 5 other games and a few that had win percentages in the 95+ range. Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego and the 1st Tampa game. 9-7 looks crazy different than 4-12.

These games were not lost due to "thinking we have more talent than we do". They were flat out lost by coaching. Dirk throwing 3 times and only running 17 secs off the clock. Not covering an onside kick (the crap defense coaching shouldnt have allowed the comeback to begin with.) Running the ball in detroit instead of kneeling. Zero adjustments at half time during TB game. And the SD game where once again we threw instead of run to kill clock and force them to use time outs.

What you dont see is, "wow player X was beaten weekly he has to be replaced" or "we just couldnt sstop the run" or , "if we only had player X, then Y would have happened".

Yes we need pass rush and NO PLAYER should be off the board at the #4 pick. But I feel the 4-12 record leads people to believe we have trash players and that is not accurate.

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4 hours ago, JDaveG said:

.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should insist we must get a QB at 4 no matter what.  So the truth is that nobody should be surprised if someone like Fields falls to us and we take him, and nobody should be surprised if we're down to the 3rd or 4th QB and we don't, and nobody should be surprised if Fields falls to us and we pass.

The reason for all this is simple.  The team's math is not based on fans wish casting Matt Ryan out of town (or for him to retire as a Falcon).  The team is looking at where the holes on the team are and which players will best improve the team with those picks.  For better or worse, QB is not really a hole.  We could use a backup, we do not need a starter.  So the FO is not going to go into the draft saying "QB or bust."  But neither are they going into the draft saying "we cannot under any circumstances take a QB at no. 4."  

They are going to try as best they can to fill the major holes in FA, but we're hamstrung by the cap this year, and then they are going to try to maximize talent on the team without reaching for perceived need in the draft.  Fontenot has been a part of a Saints organization that took a d-lineman or o-lineman with their first draft pick 4 of the past 5 years, and 6 of the past 10.  They have also drafted 2 corners, a safety and a WR in that 10 year period, and they ended up trading the WR away and lost the safety (Vacarro) in FA.  That team builds by acquiring talent, and specifically they built this current team by fortifying the trenches.  I don't think Fontenot is going to come over here, look at this roster, and say "we must get a QB."  I also don't think he's going to leave the most talented player on the board simply because we don't need a QB today.  I would not at all be surprised to see us take Sewell if he is there at 4 either.

So don't be surprised at whatever happens.  People saying "we must do this" or "we can't do that" are missing the boat.  Fontenot and Smith will do whatever they think makes the team better, and we'll find out what that is on draft day and really not before then.

This is the year to trade down and grab as many picks and load up. Either ways we can guess which way it is going to go by start of FA. I will be looking at restructuring of the existing contracts.

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I agree Falcons have many holes a trade down would be the best option. Also I heard Brugler say he thinks Julio is gone. If so imagine the ammo the Falcons would have.

1.Falcs trade 4 down to whoever (San Fran? Etc) get back at least a 1st and 2nd. 

2. Falcs trade Julio forca 1st and 3rd.

Falcs have 2 first 2 2nds and 3rds.

1. Falcs 1st rounder Patrick Surtain

2. Falcons 1st rounder (def end Penn State)

3. Falcons 2nd rd (Jerome Williams running back) I doubt Najee Harris falls this far

4. Falcons 2nd rd Jevon Holland

2 3rd rds.. I think the 3rd rds given up to Saints are comp picks.Falcons would have some decent players left to fill other holes .

This is how you run a draft with so  many needs.

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4 minutes ago, Falconsailorman said:

 

2 3rd rds.. I think the 3rd rds given up to Saints are comp picks.Falcons would have some decent players left to fill other holes .

This is how you run a draft with so  many needs.

We dont have to give the Saints nothing.  The league will award those picks AFTER the GM has been here for 2 years.

We lose nothing,

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7 hours ago, falconsd56 said:

Indeed.

You can make the case that Smith would be the best player on the board. If he is there at 4.

He is among the most decorated CFB history and we have had fantastic luck with Alabama receivers.

But with Julio, Ridley,Gage and Oz who could be a fantastic 3rd wr,.....taking a wr at 4 would melt this place faster than a dragon on game of thrones.

 

 

Smith's body/frame will prevent him from being the 1st WR taken(Chase), let alone the best overall rated player.

Edited by PointSwayzee
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The draft is not as interesting to me as the moves we will make prior to the draft and shortly there after.  Whatever we do, 7+ solid players will be selected.  What we choose to do then, who we invite, who we release and who we sign will be far more interesting.  We will see what kind of team we will be building and what happens long-term. 

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2 hours ago, runshoot said:

I understand your point. But I think this falcons season is the aberration to "you are what your record is". We had opportunity to win and in most cases we were winning in 5 other games and a few that had win percentages in the 95+ range. Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego and the 1st Tampa game. 9-7 looks crazy different than 4-12.

These games were not lost due to "thinking we have more talent than we do". They were flat out lost by coaching. Dirk throwing 3 times and only running 17 secs off the clock. Not covering an onside kick (the crap defense coaching shouldnt have allowed the comeback to begin with.) Running the ball in detroit instead of kneeling. Zero adjustments at half time during TB game. And the SD game where once again we threw instead of run to kill clock and force them to use time outs.

What you dont see is, "wow player X was beaten weekly he has to be replaced" or "we just couldnt sstop the run" or , "if we only had player X, then Y would have happened".

Yes we need pass rush and NO PLAYER should be off the board at the #4 pick. But I feel the 4-12 record leads people to believe we have trash players and that is not accurate.

I’ve mentioned it before and I’m totally serious. This is the best 4-12 Atlanta team I’ve seen. I’ve seen lots and lots of worse Falcons seasons. 

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5 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Mathews would be a terrible guard. Trade down a few slots, let the Bengals get Sewell and then take Slater. No movement necessary and we have a guy that can play every spot on the line at a high level instead of being locked into a tackle.

Yeah moving him or Kaleb would be very foolish. Good tackle doesn’t guarantee good guard and vice versa. Matthews skill set far better suited for tackle. I would definitely be good with trading down and taking Slater

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11 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I’ve mentioned it before and I’m totally serious. This is the best 4-12 Atlanta team I’ve seen. I’ve seen lots and lots of worse Falcons seasons. 

We are in a much better position than we were the last time we were 4-12 (2013). At this point that year, we had Ryan, Julio, Roddy, HD, and Blalock on offense and Babs, Tru, and Alford on defense as the only players avg or + 

This team, using same parameters, has Ryan, Julio, Ridley, Gage, Hurst, Matthews, Lindstrom, McGary on offense and Grady, Debo, Foye, Terrell on D. While the defense only has 1 more player listed than the 2013, each one of them is significantly better than the 2013 defenders 

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5 hours ago, thanat0s said:

Well said. 

 I believe the top three picks will be QBs by somebody, anyway, so we’ll see who they consider the 2-3 guys worth pick four. 
 

Sewell, Parsons, Farley, Surtain, Paye, and Rousseau would seem the guys most likely to be in our short list. After looking at their pattern, my early money says Sewell will be our guy, and Matthews will slide inside. 
 

Both like filling the trenches, and our HC will want the best offensive line he can field for his QB and run game. 
 

I’m not saying it’s 100% impossible they draft a QB, but even if one is there at 4, I’d put the odds at 90+% against. It’s the least productive use of that pick.

If they draft a guy, think Newman or Trask in round 3-4, not pick 4. I think it’s much more likely we get a cheap vet FA for that spot. It’s not like Matt misses games.

 

Exactly my thoughts. Either they fix LG or trade down a few spots and go with the top defensive prospect. Arthur Smith was brought in because the FO believes he can maximize whats left of Matt Ryan and Julio. Dont need to have 4th overall money sitting its a waste especially when they are over the cap as we speak. 

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41 minutes ago, Rings said:

You do know what generational talent means, yes?

I do, do you? See attached and see if you can find Marino in the generational quarterback conversation

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://fansided.com/2019/08/26/trevor-lawrence-next-generational-quarterback/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwjHovODzabuAhWxmuAKHYjOD1cQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2saH1eL-axX-7kvHLxLrKE&ampcf=1

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22 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

You can link multiple sites that will all define it different.  Some say that it’s someone who changed a franchise, some say it’s once in a generation talent (although time frame is loosely defined, some 10 years, some 20), some say it is someone who was the very best at their position for a decade.  So it’s a fair point you made, I just look at it as the elite of elite over a sustained period of time.  I also think Elway was overrated and that Marino was better, but that’s just me.

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1 hour ago, GrimeyKidd said:

Exactly my thoughts. Either they fix LG or trade down a few spots and go with the top defensive prospect. Arthur Smith was brought in because the FO believes he can maximize whats left of Matt Ryan and Julio. Dont need to have 4th overall money sitting its a waste especially when they are over the cap as we speak. 

Zackly!

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8 hours ago, thanat0s said:

The only way it becomes a viable option is if we get a team like Miami or Baltimore to give us a 1 for Julio. 
 

That could be used on a safety or edge, which we desperately need. 

Don’t rule out the raiders...missing out twice in a row for the playoffs, Gruden needs a WR1 and might be a suitor.

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If Fontenot is anything like Loomis he will build from the inside out. In my opinion Loomis tended to draft scheme specific vs BPA. There have been plenty of times pundits and fans accused NO of reaching for a player or making head scratching FA signings but obviously it has worked for them. Their scouting department has been really good at finding players that fit both need and scheme. As much as we hate NO around here you can’t deny their front office has run circles around ours and many others around the league. 

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