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The truth about that number 4 pick


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53 minutes ago, dapanch420 said:

Well hate to say, but if zach wilson is there @ #4 then youre going to be dissapointed my friend.

You missed the point of this entire post.  You have no clue what the future GM will do.  Just because you see a position as a need, and like a certain player, doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.  In fact there is a much higher likelihood that they don’t draft Wilson at 4 if he’s there than they do.

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1 hour ago, JDaveG said:

.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should insist we must get a QB at 4 no matter what.  So the truth is that nobody should be surprised if someone like Fields falls to us and we take him, and nobody should be surprised if we're down to the 3rd or 4th QB and we don't, and nobody should be surprised if Fields falls to us and we pass.

The reason for all this is simple.  The team's math is not based on fans wish casting Matt Ryan out of town (or for him to retire as a Falcon).  The team is looking at where the holes on the team are and which players will best improve the team with those picks.  For better or worse, QB is not really a hole.  We could use a backup, we do not need a starter.  So the FO is not going to go into the draft saying "QB or bust."  But neither are they going into the draft saying "we cannot under any circumstances take a QB at no. 4."  

They are going to try as best they can to fill the major holes in FA, but we're hamstrung by the cap this year, and then they are going to try to maximize talent on the team without reaching for perceived need in the draft.  Fontenot has been a part of a Saints organization that took a d-lineman or o-lineman with their first draft pick 4 of the past 5 years, and 6 of the past 10.  They have also drafted 2 corners, a safety and a WR in that 10 year period, and they ended up trading the WR away and lost the safety (Vacarro) in FA.  That team builds by acquiring talent, and specifically they built this current team by fortifying the trenches.  I don't think Fontenot is going to come over here, look at this roster, and say "we must get a QB."  I also don't think he's going to leave the most talented player on the board simply because we don't need a QB today.  I would not at all be surprised to see us take Sewell if he is there at 4 either.

So don't be surprised at whatever happens.  People saying "we must do this" or "we can't do that" are missing the boat.  Fontenot and Smith will do whatever they think makes the team better, and we'll find out what that is on draft day and really not before then.

I kinda agree with you ... But no way you take Fields before Wilson 

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1 minute ago, thanat0s said:

The only way it becomes a viable option is if we get a team like Miami or Baltimore to give us a 1 for Julio. 
 

That could be used on a safety or edge, which we desperately need. 

Indeed.

The other scenario is that we have a very productive free agent. Where we address most of the glaring concerns of safety, edge, corner etc.

I know everybody talks about the cap **** but if the cap goes to 195 and we just make a few moves then we will have plenty of space to land 2 or 3 guys.

There's going to be a lot of potential free agents that we will ties to that would really help.

Is just going to be interesting to see how the fresh set of eyes views the roster.

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5 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Mathews would be a terrible guard. Trade down a few slots, let the Bengals get Sewell and then take Slater. No movement necessary and we have a guy that can play every spot on the line at a high level instead of being locked into a tackle.

Or just take Slater if he's your guy.  Taylor Lewan has worked out pretty well for the Titans, and he went several picks after Matthews did.  If you like Slater better, no sense in risking that someone else does too.  Just take him at 4.

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2 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

Or just take Slater if he's your guy.  Taylor Lewan has worked out pretty well for the Titans, and he went several picks after Matthews did.  If you like Slater better, no sense in risking that someone else does too.  Just take him at 4.

Or that. I just feel we need to add picks to climb out of this cap hole, but there's a good possibility slater would go too.

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8 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Mathews would be a terrible guard. Trade down a few slots, let the Bengals get Sewell and then take Slater. No movement necessary and we have a guy that can play every spot on the line at a high level instead of being locked into a tackle.

Yes.

The truth is , most tackles would make terrible guards.

Just as most guards can not play tackle.

There are exceptions but the guys who can play "all along " the Oline with any consistent quality are few and far between.

Especially in the NFL.

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2 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Mathews would be a terrible guard. Trade down a few slots, let the Bengals get Sewell and then take Slater. No movement necessary and we have a guy that can play every spot on the line at a high level instead of being locked into a tackle.

I’m just talking about at pick four, as the OP was addressing. Sewell is the bpa there by all accounts, if one assumes QB isn’t a need.

And I don’t agree at all that Matthews can’t play guard, but those are just our opinions. There is no doubt that adding Sewell immediately injects our line with a huge amount of new talent. 

He’s the obvious guy if we pick at 4, and don’t consider that handful of defenders worth the pick. Give me the closest thing to a sure thing with that pick, regardless of position. 

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6 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

Indeed.

The other scenario is that we have a very productive free agent. Where we address most of the glaring concerns of safety, edge, corner etc.

I know everybody talks about the cap **** but if the cap goes to 195 and we just make a few moves then we will have plenty of space to land 2 or 3 guys.

There's going to be a lot of potential free agents that we will ties to that would really help.

Is just going to be interesting to see how the fresh set of eyes views the roster.

Yeah, it is. And I don’t buy into the ‘we can’t sign a guy because of the cap!’ crowd noise around here. Those bean counters are paid big money to figure that out, and they don’t get their information from some random website cap simulator. 

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Just now, thanat0s said:

Yeah, it is. And I don’t buy into the ‘we can’t sign a guy because of the cap!’ crowd noise around here. Those bean counters are paid big money to figure that out, and they don’t get their information from some random website cap simulator. 

the big part of it is that no one really knows how the contracts are actually structured... They just see the raw numbers which are often very different than actual numbers used for cap purposes.

 

If we want a guy and feel that he is the guy then we will be competitive for whoever that is..... This I am sure of.

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11 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

I’m just talking about at pick four, as the OP was addressing. Sewell is the bpa there by all accounts, if one assumes QB isn’t a need.

And I don’t agree at all that Matthews can’t play guard, but those are just our opinions. There is no doubt that adding Sewell immediately injects our line with a huge amount of new talent. 

He’s the obvious guy if we pick at 4, and don’t consider that handful of defenders worth the pick. Give me the closest thing to a sure thing with that pick, regardless of position. 

I'd put Sewell at guard before Mathews. Sewell is a 330 pound people mover. At the very worst he'd be a dominant run blocker.

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Tbh If we don’t draft Fields I’ll be upset it seems destined at this point he’s generational ... you don’t just say oh I’ll get a QB next year ... look how many busts were drafted after Matt Ryan in the 1st until 2017 

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1 hour ago, JDaveG said:

.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should insist we must get a QB at 4 no matter what.  So the truth is that nobody should be surprised if someone like Fields falls to us and we take him, and nobody should be surprised if we're down to the 3rd or 4th QB and we don't, and nobody should be surprised if Fields falls to us and we pass.

The reason for all this is simple.  The team's math is not based on fans wish casting Matt Ryan out of town (or for him to retire as a Falcon).  The team is looking at where the holes on the team are and which players will best improve the team with those picks.  For better or worse, QB is not really a hole.  We could use a backup, we do not need a starter.  So the FO is not going to go into the draft saying "QB or bust."  But neither are they going into the draft saying "we cannot under any circumstances take a QB at no. 4."  

They are going to try as best they can to fill the major holes in FA, but we're hamstrung by the cap this year, and then they are going to try to maximize talent on the team without reaching for perceived need in the draft.  Fontenot has been a part of a Saints organization that took a d-lineman or o-lineman with their first draft pick 4 of the past 5 years, and 6 of the past 10.  They have also drafted 2 corners, a safety and a WR in that 10 year period, and they ended up trading the WR away and lost the safety (Vacarro) in FA.  That team builds by acquiring talent, and specifically they built this current team by fortifying the trenches.  I don't think Fontenot is going to come over here, look at this roster, and say "we must get a QB."  I also don't think he's going to leave the most talented player on the board simply because we don't need a QB today.  I would not at all be surprised to see us take Sewell if he is there at 4 either.

So don't be surprised at whatever happens.  People saying "we must do this" or "we can't do that" are missing the boat.  Fontenot and Smith will do whatever they think makes the team better, and we'll find out what that is on draft day and really not before then.

Precisely.  I don’t see why it’s so difficult for most folks to just sit back with a wait & see approach rather than get all emotionally invested on what their idea of our only choice should be.  
It just puts you in a position of hating 75% of our options at #4. Which then means that we have to put up with all your negative cow manure for the entire tenure of our new front office & coaching staff! :doh:

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7 minutes ago, JetJones11 said:

Tbh If we don’t draft Fields I’ll be upset it seems destined at this point he’s generational ... you don’t just say oh I’ll get a QB next year ... look how many busts were drafted after Matt Ryan in the 1st until 2017 

What is generational about him? His arm isn't special. Is it because he runs? Because half the NFL does that now. Theres nothing generational about him

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56 minutes ago, HASHBROWN3 said:

Precisely.  I don’t see why it’s so difficult for most folks to just sit back with a wait & see approach rather than get all emotionally invested on what their idea of our only choice should be.  
It just puts you in a position of hating 75% of our options at #4. Which then means that we have to put up with all your negative cow manure for the entire tenure of our new front office & coaching staff! :doh:

💯

people who are convinced one way or another are being way too emotional about this.

i would love a tradedown, would be really happy with ANY pick at #4, and would throw my tv through the window if we traded up.....which i suppose would be quite emotional of me :D

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1 hour ago, thanat0s said:

I’m just talking about at pick four, as the OP was addressing. Sewell is the bpa there by all accounts, if one assumes QB isn’t a need.

And I don’t agree at all that Matthews can’t play guard, but those are just our opinions. There is no doubt that adding Sewell immediately injects our line with a huge amount of new talent. 

He’s the obvious guy if we pick at 4, and don’t consider that handful of defenders worth the pick. Give me the closest thing to a sure thing with that pick, regardless of position. 

if he falls to #4 sewell is bpa for sure.

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59 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

What is generational about him? His arm isn't special. Is it because he runs? Because half the NFL does that now. Theres nothing generational about him

My question, too. In fact, if they did draft him, my immediate thought would be, they did that to get the locals to show up on Sunday, not win games. 
 

It’d be entirely a PR move to get the local kid. 

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21 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

My question, too. In fact, if they did draft him, my immediate thought would be, they did that to get the locals to show up on Sunday, not win games. 
 

It’d be entirely a PR move to get the local kid. 

We saw how well that worked out with Gurley and

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Just allow our GM & HC to work the draft unobstructed by external or internal (AB/RM) influence. 
I think most of us open minded people would stand behind our 1st Rd pick whether it includes a QB or not.

Just go on & shake out that jiggy, open side of your brain & give it some fresh air & sunshine so it can grow into something less selfish, miserable & hateful.  :lol: 

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3 hours ago, JDaveG said:

.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should insist we must get a QB at 4 no matter what.  So the truth is that nobody should be surprised if someone like Fields falls to us and we take him, and nobody should be surprised if we're down to the 3rd or 4th QB and we don't, and nobody should be surprised if Fields falls to us and we pass.

The reason for all this is simple.  The team's math is not based on fans wish casting Matt Ryan out of town (or for him to retire as a Falcon).  The team is looking at where the holes on the team are and which players will best improve the team with those picks.  For better or worse, QB is not really a hole.  We could use a backup, we do not need a starter.  So the FO is not going to go into the draft saying "QB or bust."  But neither are they going into the draft saying "we cannot under any circumstances take a QB at no. 4."  

They are going to try as best they can to fill the major holes in FA, but we're hamstrung by the cap this year, and then they are going to try to maximize talent on the team without reaching for perceived need in the draft.  Fontenot has been a part of a Saints organization that took a d-lineman or o-lineman with their first draft pick 4 of the past 5 years, and 6 of the past 10.  They have also drafted 2 corners, a safety and a WR in that 10 year period, and they ended up trading the WR away and lost the safety (Vacarro) in FA.  That team builds by acquiring talent, and specifically they built this current team by fortifying the trenches.  I don't think Fontenot is going to come over here, look at this roster, and say "we must get a QB."  I also don't think he's going to leave the most talented player on the board simply because we don't need a QB today.  I would not at all be surprised to see us take Sewell if he is there at 4 either.

So don't be surprised at whatever happens.  People saying "we must do this" or "we can't do that" are missing the boat.  Fontenot and Smith will do whatever they think makes the team better, and we'll find out what that is on draft day and really not before then.

Ah,,, You'd make a good politician !!  A thread with every situation possible.. Your bond to be right with one of your thoughts.  You've got them all covered . Even a broken clock is right twice a day.. lol   Good  job...

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The pick will be either:

  • Trade down (then take O-line/Dline/RB)
  • Fields/Lawrence (if one falls to 4)

 

The least likely pick (but not unrealistic) would be an O-lineman or D-lineman they fall in love with or lock onto.  I do see a QB being taken with one of our first 4 picks.

 

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2 hours ago, JetJones11 said:

Tbh If we don’t draft Fields I’ll be upset it seems destined at this point he’s generational ... you don’t just say oh I’ll get a QB next year ... look how many busts were drafted after Matt Ryan in the 1st until 2017 

How is he generational when he isn’t even the best QB in his draft class?

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