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The truth about that number 4 pick


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.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should insist we must get a QB at 4 no matter what.  So the truth is that nobody should be surprised if someone like Fields falls to us and we take him, and nobody should be surprised if we're down to the 3rd or 4th QB and we don't, and nobody should be surprised if Fields falls to us and we pass.

The reason for all this is simple.  The team's math is not based on fans wish casting Matt Ryan out of town (or for him to retire as a Falcon).  The team is looking at where the holes on the team are and which players will best improve the team with those picks.  For better or worse, QB is not really a hole.  We could use a backup, we do not need a starter.  So the FO is not going to go into the draft saying "QB or bust."  But neither are they going into the draft saying "we cannot under any circumstances take a QB at no. 4."  

They are going to try as best they can to fill the major holes in FA, but we're hamstrung by the cap this year, and then they are going to try to maximize talent on the team without reaching for perceived need in the draft.  Fontenot has been a part of a Saints organization that took a d-lineman or o-lineman with their first draft pick 4 of the past 5 years, and 6 of the past 10.  They have also drafted 2 corners, a safety and a WR in that 10 year period, and they ended up trading the WR away and lost the safety (Vacarro) in FA.  That team builds by acquiring talent, and specifically they built this current team by fortifying the trenches.  I don't think Fontenot is going to come over here, look at this roster, and say "we must get a QB."  I also don't think he's going to leave the most talented player on the board simply because we don't need a QB today.  I would not at all be surprised to see us take Sewell if he is there at 4 either.

So don't be surprised at whatever happens.  People saying "we must do this" or "we can't do that" are missing the boat.  Fontenot and Smith will do whatever they think makes the team better, and we'll find out what that is on draft day and really not before then.

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.....and it's really simple.  The team should, and I think the team will, rank the players available there.  I do not think they will take QB off the board, but I also do not think they will or should

It's a good year to have high picks in each round with fresh sets of eyes from a new GM and coach who can look at our situation and our team without bias. 

True things about the #4 pick: 1. It is one pick after the #3 pick. 2. It is one pick before the #5 pick. Prove me wrong.

The reality is we're 4 and 12 football team... We like to think that we have more talent than that and that we should have won more games... which I think both statements would be very accurate but at the end of the day we were four and 12 and finish on a five game losing streak.

There is a reason why we hired a new GM and a new head coach.

To your point I think taking anything off of the table would be pretty silly.... I think outside of punter, kicker, Long snapper, punt returner...all options are on the table.

Outside of those clear positions....I think TE and receiver will be two other positions that we stay away from in the first... atleast at 4. 

Everything else is possible.

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Just now, falconsd56 said:

The reality is we're 4 and 12 football team... We like to think that we have more talent than that and that we should have won more games... which I think both statements would be very accurate but at the end of the day we were four and 12 and finish on a five game losing streak.

There is a reason why we hired a new GM and a new head coach.

To your point I think taking anything off of the table would be pretty silly.... I think outside of punter, kicker, Long snapper, punt returner...all options are on the table.

Outside of those clear positions....I think TE and receiver will be two other positions that we stay away from in the first... atleast at 4. 

Everything else is possible.

Agree.  I wouldn't say I'd be mad taking a WR, but he'd better be head and shoulders the best player left on the board at 4, and I don't think either of them will be.

At 4, I think the choice is going to come down to the board.  I can't imagine them saying "we will never take a QB with the 4th pick," and I can't imagine them saying "we must take a QB with the 4th pick."  It's going to come down to which QB and where he ranks against other players still on the draft board at that time.

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Just now, JohnnyFranchise said:

we can speculate on who's qb2 all we want but we won't know for sure until april 29th

And for each team, it just depends on how they rank them.  You can make a case for Fields over Lawrence.  I wouldn't, but I've seen others do it.  And the biggest thing everyone should remember is, no one is right or wrong about that.  Nobody here knows how these guys are going to play in the NFL.  You can't measure a man's heart.  You can't measure how he's going to fit on the team that drafts him.  There are reasons highly touted prospects bust and guys nobody thought would be able to play turn into Pro Bowlers.

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I’m not gonna be mad if they take a QB at # 4 unless it’s not Lawrence, Fields, or Wilson.  I don’t think drafting a QB is the right pick but I understand the logic if it’s one of these 3 and they don’t have the opportunity to trade down.  It’s that simple for me.  Chances are this draft is going to define this regime so I hope they get it right, whether I like what they do or not.  

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2 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

Agree.  I wouldn't say I'd be mad taking a WR, but he'd better be head and shoulders the best player left on the board at 4, and I don't think either of them will be.

At 4, I think the choice is going to come down to the board.  I can't imagine them saying "we will never take a QB with the 4th pick," and I can't imagine them saying "we must take a QB with the 4th pick."  It's going to come down to which QB and where he ranks against other players still on the draft board at that time.

Indeed.

You can make the case that Smith would be the best player on the board. If he is there at 4.

He is among the most decorated CFB history and we have had fantastic luck with Alabama receivers.

But with Julio, Ridley,Gage and Oz who could be a fantastic 3rd wr,.....taking a wr at 4 would melt this place faster than a dragon on game of thrones.

 

 

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1 minute ago, CraigSmackDaddy said:

I’m not gonna be mad if they take a QB at # 4 unless it’s not Lawrence, Fields, or Wilson.  I don’t think drafting a QB is the right pick but I understand the logic if it’s one of these 3 and they don’t have the opportunity to trade down.  It’s that simple for me.  Chances are this draft is going to define this regime so I hope they get it right, whether I like what they do or not.  

I don't know that it will.  If we take a QB, then I'm assuming the owner is going to be patient and understand Rome is not built in a day.  Taking a QB is not a "win now" move.

The only people who think it is are those who blame Matt Ryan for everything that goes wrong with this team.  And those people are stupid.

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yeah, I stated this in another thread and I am in agreement w/ you.   Basically, nothing should be ruled out and everything on the table.   Fontenot, scouting staff and Smith need to do their due diligence on the QBs and the every other position/prospect.

A new regime should look at ALL WAYS to get better.

Also looking at ALL WAYS to get better shouldn't be limited to a 1-2 year timeframe.

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Well said. 

 I believe the top three picks will be QBs by somebody, anyway, so we’ll see who they consider the 2-3 guys worth pick four. 
 

Sewell, Parsons, Farley, Surtain, Paye, and Rousseau would seem the guys most likely to be in our short list. After looking at their pattern, my early money says Sewell will be our guy, and Matthews will slide inside. 
 

Both like filling the trenches, and our HC will want the best offensive line he can field for his QB and run game. 
 

I’m not saying it’s 100% impossible they draft a QB, but even if one is there at 4, I’d put the odds at 90+% against. It’s the least productive use of that pick.

If they draft a guy, think Newman or Trask in round 3-4, not pick 4. I think it’s much more likely we get a cheap vet FA for that spot. It’s not like Matt misses games.

 

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If a QB is taken, I hope it's Fields. It would be hard to pass on him if he falls to #4, which ironically would be just one pick lower than Dimitroff's first ever draft choice, which turned into Matt Ryan. Different situations though. Falcons don't necessarily need to draft a QB this year as opposed to 2008. 

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10 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

Indeed.

You can make the case that Smith would be the best player on the board. If he is there at 4.

He is among the most decorated CFB history and we have had fantastic luck with Alabama receivers.

But with Julio, Ridley,Gage and Oz who could be a fantastic 3rd wr,.....taking a wr at 4 would melt this place faster than a dragon on game of thrones.

 

 

The only way it becomes a viable option is if we get a team like Miami or Baltimore to give us a 1 for Julio. 
 

That could be used on a safety or edge, which we desperately need. 

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2 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Well said. 

 I believe the top three picks will be QBs by somebody, anyway, so we’ll see who they consider the 2-3 guys worth pick four. 
 

Sewell, Parsons, Farley, Surtain, Paye, and Rousseau would seem the guys most likely to be in our short list. After looking at their pattern, my early money says Sewell will be our guy, and Matthews will slide inside. 
 

Both like filling the trenches, and our HC will want the best offensive line he can field for his QB and run game. 
 

I’m not saying it’s 100% impossible they draft a QB, but even if one is there at 4, I’d put the odds at 90+% against. It’s the least productive use of that pick.

If they draft a guy, think Newman or Trask in round 3-4, not pick 4. I think it’s much more likely we get a cheap vet FA for that spot. It’s not like Matt misses games.

 

Mathews would be a terrible guard. Trade down a few slots, let the Bengals get Sewell and then take Slater. No movement necessary and we have a guy that can play every spot on the line at a high level instead of being locked into a tackle.

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