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WHY I don't want to draft a QB this year


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if zach wilson lands on our laps we take him no questions asked. if not then i agree.

Give me Mac Jones over Wilson.

I don’t think the line is that bad.  Scheme change will help drastically, we don’t know what we really have in Hennesey or Gono, and we haven’t seen McGary in a competent scheme. I agree with no QB

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5 hours ago, Faithful Falcon said:

Draft a QB, or we could be having this same debate next season.  

 

But Ryan is just under a new coach, and Sewell is just a rookie (if we draft him).

Look, I've been a Matt Ryan Fan, and Defender. It's time to move on. I apologize that Kyle Shanahan put the gun to Matt's head, and told him to keep running pass plays in the Super Bowl.

Give me Fields, Wilson, or Lance. I'm cool with that.

 

5 hours ago, Faithful Falcon said:

It can be done we are at 4 

QBs Taken Top 5 Last 22 Years

20 - Joe Burrow
20 - Tua Tagovaliloa
19 - Kyler Murray
18 - Baker Mayfield
18 - Sam Darnold
17 - Mitch Trubisky
16 - Jared Goff
16 - Carson Wentz
15 - Jameis Winston
15 - Marus Mariota
14 - Blake Bortles
12 - Andrew Luck
12 - Robert Griffin III
11 - Cam Newton
10 - Sam Bradford
09 - Matthew Stafford
08 - Matt Ryan
07 - JaMarcus Russell
06 - Vince Young
05 - Alex Smith
04 - Eli Manning
04 - Philip Rivers
03 - Carson Palmer
02 - David Carr
01 - Michael Vick
99 - Tim Couch 
98 - Peyton Manning
98 - Ryan Leaf

How many of those would you want over Matt Ryan?  The myth you have to take a QB top 5 is busted, incorrect and stupid.  You have to go back to 98 to take Peyton Manning to get a QB hands down better than Ryan in the top five. 

Round one?  Yes.  Top five?  No.

Desperate, bad teams take QBs top 5 and it rarely works out.

 

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6 minutes ago, Rings said:

Why?  They aren’t playing for another year or two.  It’s a waste of the rookie contract savings.  It’s pointless.

1st round rookie contracts are 4 years with a 5th year option.  Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes and Brady did not play as rookies all three were ready to play when they got their opportunity. You need a back up QB, Matt Ryan could get injured at anytime,   Matt Schaub was making nearly 5 million as the back up QB so you are not wasting money. 

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21 minutes ago, insight said:

1st round rookie contracts are 4 years with a 5th year option.  Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes and Brady did not play as rookies all three were ready to play when they got their opportunity. You need a back up QB, Matt Ryan could get injured at anytime,   Matt Schaub was making nearly 5 million as the back up QB so you are not wasting money. 

How many of those were a top 5 pick?  Zero.

I never said don't draft a backup QB.  I never said don't take a QB in the first round.  I said don't take one top 5.  Also, the 5th year option jumps drastically so the savings is much less, but still some.

Brady played in the old CBA and was a 6th round pick so that example is beyond worthless. 
Rodgers was also the old CBA so again, the savings was very different then vs now...not near as much.  
The only one in the current CBA was Mahomes who didn't even sit out a full season.

4th overall makes about 4mil, a franchise QB averages about what Matt makes at 30mil... It is a massive savings.

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6 hours ago, Rings said:

 

QBs Taken Top 5 Last 22 Years

20 - Joe Burrow
20 - Tua Tagovaliloa
19 - Kyler Murray
18 - Baker Mayfield
18 - Sam Darnold
17 - Mitch Trubisky
16 - Jared Goff
16 - Carson Wentz
15 - Jameis Winston
15 - Marus Mariota
14 - Blake Bortles
12 - Andrew Luck
12 - Robert Griffin III
11 - Cam Newton
10 - Sam Bradford
09 - Matthew Stafford
08 - Matt Ryan
07 - JaMarcus Russell
06 - Vince Young
05 - Alex Smith
04 - Eli Manning
04 - Philip Rivers
03 - Carson Palmer
02 - David Carr
01 - Michael Vick
99 - Tim Couch 
98 - Peyton Manning
98 - Ryan Leaf

How many of those would you want over Matt Ryan?  The myth you have to take a QB top 5 is busted, incorrect and stupid.  You have to go back to 98 to take Peyton Manning to get a QB hands down better than Ryan in the top five. 

Round one?  Yes.  Top five?  No.

Desperate, bad teams take QBs top 5 and it rarely works out.

 

Just to play devil's advocate, the reason a quarterback might work out later in the 1st round is because they are, by definition, going to a better team with better players and coaches. Picking a quarterback in the top 5 typically means they're going to a bad team with possibly bad coaches. The last time we picked a QB in the top 5 we paired him with a scheme that helped him find early success and gave him Pro Bowl WRs, Pro Bowl RBs, a HOF TE, a Pro Bowl LT, and signed one of the best to play center in modern day. 

Most top 5 quarterbacks don't get that luxury. Now we don't have quite the talent right this second that Matt enjoyed at our peak, but to be able to sit and learn behind Matt is a luxury none of those top 5 QBs got either. 

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1 hour ago, Power I said:

Just to play devil's advocate, the reason a quarterback might work out later in the 1st round is because they are, by definition, going to a better team with better players and coaches. Picking a quarterback in the top 5 typically means they're going to a bad team with possibly bad coaches. The last time we picked a QB in the top 5 we paired him with a scheme that helped him find early success and gave him Pro Bowl WRs, Pro Bowl RBs, a HOF TE, a Pro Bowl LT, and signed one of the best to play center in modern day. 

Most top 5 quarterbacks don't get that luxury. Now we don't have quite the talent right this second that Matt enjoyed at our peak, but to be able to sit and learn behind Matt is a luxury none of those top 5 QBs got either. 

I disagree with the bad team take.  Jets?  Browns?  Yeah.  But that’s just on the surface, no offense as you’re not the only one to say it, but I disagree.  If you look at each pick, majority of those teams had some success but it was in spite of the QB, not because of them. Wether that was scheme or a great defense.

Eagles won a SB after Wentz, but he was hurt and Foles outperformed him.  

Rams went to a SB with Goff, but Goff hasn’t played well.  

Eli Manning’s team won two Super Bowls, outside of those two playoff runs was pretty average to bad.

Bears are a playoff team and Mitch holds them back.  

Jameis couldn’t beat out Taysom Hill on his second team, a playoff team.  

Mariota got benched for Tannehill on a playoff team.  

No one was willing to pay Cam after playing in a Super Bowl and signed for pennies.

Bortles was on a playoff team in Jax with a stud defense and he had two awesome WR and was still bad.

I could go on but you get the point.

How many top 5 QBs recently sit for a year, let alone two?  I just can’t see us taking a QB top five, the first ever pick for our new GM, and then say you just sit out the next year or two and learn. If we trade back to mid or late first, that’s fine.  Fourth overall?  Makes no sense to me, someone will want a QB to play now, wether it’s a coach or GM fighting to keep a job, and will likely be willing to pay for one.  

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18 hours ago, Killing Floor said:

In before the cussing!

Matt Ryan has the 2nd longest time in pocket in the NFL averaging 2.6 seconds all season. Only Bake has more time at 2.7. Add to that Ryan’s very high quantity of air yards.  And only 15 scrambles all season.  He gets blitzed on 3rd down because any coach knows cover Ridley and Jones and blitz and Ryan grounds the ball.  It’s a defensive no-brainer.  So blame the right tackle.  Ryan had all effin day because we have a good O line.  

There is simply no mathematical discussion here.  Only reason Ryan gets sacked is he waits too long to make a decision. He has all day in football terms. But sure, wait all day and the pocket collapses so must be the guard’s fault.  The complaint here on TATF is that league leading protection of pocket isn’t enough for Ryan to make better decisions under pressure. It’s the NFL. The QB is SUPPOSED to be under pressure. The WL depends on how they handle it. Maybe move his feet and we won’t be sitting here at 4-12 next year. 

lol there are 7 other QBs with 2.6. Half the QBs in the league had 2.5 or over. 

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11 hours ago, Rings said:

It makes perfect sense.  It just doesn’t support your “Ryan is the worst” logic, so you may not be able to comprehend it.

Lmao it makes no sense hence the only reason you can spew such ignorance. I’d love for you to Quote where I said “Ryan is the worst.” See how the works? Facts, things you lack. Comprehension as well, but we both know that now don’t we? 
 

I said take the play making QB at 4 and sit him, ala Packers (Two times now) and Chargers in 05. This gives Ryan two years maybe three to prove his worth. You popped in and said the dumbest crap I’ve ever read and the crazy thing is YOU THINK IT MAKES SENSE 😂😂😂

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11 hours ago, Rings said:

 

QBs Taken Top 5 Last 22 Years

20 - Joe Burrow
20 - Tua Tagovaliloa
19 - Kyler Murray
18 - Baker Mayfield
18 - Sam Darnold
17 - Mitch Trubisky
16 - Jared Goff
16 - Carson Wentz
15 - Jameis Winston
15 - Marus Mariota
14 - Blake Bortles
12 - Andrew Luck
12 - Robert Griffin III
11 - Cam Newton
10 - Sam Bradford
09 - Matthew Stafford
08 - Matt Ryan
07 - JaMarcus Russell
06 - Vince Young
05 - Alex Smith
04 - Eli Manning
04 - Philip Rivers
03 - Carson Palmer
02 - David Carr
01 - Michael Vick
99 - Tim Couch 
98 - Peyton Manning
98 - Ryan Leaf

How many of those would you want over Matt Ryan?  The myth you have to take a QB top 5 is busted, incorrect and stupid.  You have to go back to 98 to take Peyton Manning to get a QB hands down better than Ryan in the top five. 

Round one?  Yes.  Top five?  No.

Desperate, bad teams take QBs top 5 and it rarely works out.

 

Falcons first end history

Vick - Elite playmaker

Ryan - Great QB 

Bartkowski - Great QB

 

sounds like it has worked out for us in the past my guy.

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I would say wait for 2022 but the QB's coming out next year look horrible so while I do thing we should not get a QB this year, we need too based on what's coming out next year...And you have to think about it like this, how many times are we going to have a top 5 pick? Take advantage, draft your QB of the future and sit him to learn from Matt. Its the simplest and most long term approach. 

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19 hours ago, jetpac said:

image.thumb.png.56a800f692776862aafbbd4e80ef71c6.png

 

Average Time in the pocket... MATT HAS THE MOST.

 

But yea its our OL...

Actually, that chart shows he’s tied for second with 8 other teams at 2.6 seconds and the shortest time is 2.1.    You need to select pressure and sort by pocket time.   
You are on air yards at which he is ranked number 1.
The problem is long developing plays and no run game and not adjusting.  

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10 hours ago, Rings said:

How many of those were a top 5 pick?  Zero.

I never said don't draft a backup QB.  I never said don't take a QB in the first round.  I said don't take one top 5.  Also, the 5th year option jumps drastically so the savings is much less, but still some.

Brady played in the old CBA and was a 6th round pick so that example is beyond worthless. 
Rodgers was also the old CBA so again, the savings was very different then vs now...not near as much.  
The only one in the current CBA was Mahomes who didn't even sit out a full season.

4th overall makes about 4mil, a franchise QB averages about what Matt makes at 30mil... It is a massive savings.

The GM and Head Coach will determine if the QB's in this draft is worthy of the 4th pick based on whether they believe the player can become the Franchise QB of the future.  The GM's draft board should decide who is picked based on their value assessment, not some arbitrary rational not to use a Top 5 pick on a QB. 

 If the  draft board  says they can find a franchise QB in round  2  or 6 so be it, but if they screw up the pick the team will be set back for years and they will probably lose their jobs. 

Why did we draft Matt Ryan with the #3 pick?  In 2008 the Falcons had Chris Redman and Joey Harrington which were still serviceable.  Based on your logic we should have never drafted Matt Ryan, with the 3rd pick because we had cap space tied up with Mike Vick and could find a QB later in the draft.   

Replacing older players  with younger less expensive talent is a massive savings.  If you can have your QB of the future sit and learn the NFL  behind a good QB I think it helps their development. 

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20 hours ago, jetpac said:

WHY I don't care if you don't want to draft a QB this year. And why we should.

The chances of us drafting this high again in the future is slim. You get the playmaking QB that is available to you at #4 now (Groom him) give Matt 2-3 more years and you have your future set.

This^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

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9 minutes ago, insight said:

The GM and Head Coach will determine if the QB's in this draft is worthy of the 4th pick based on whether they believe the player can become the Franchise QB of the future.  The GM's draft board should decide who is picked based on their value assessment, not some arbitrary rational not to use a Top 5 pick on a QB. 

 If the  draft board  says they can find a franchise QB in round  2  or 6 so be it, but if they screw up the pick the team will be set back for years and they will probably lose their jobs. 

Why did we draft Matt Ryan with the #3 pick?  In 2008 the Falcons had Chris Redman and Joey Harrington which were still serviceable.  Based on your logic we should have never drafted Matt Ryan, with the 3rd pick because we had cap space tied up with Mike Vick and could find a QB later in the draft.   

Replacing older players  with younger less expensive talent is a massive savings.  If you can have your QB of the future sit and learn the NFL  behind a good QB I think it helps their development. 

I would barely say Harrington or Redman were serviceable, that year was a train wreck.  We needed a QB and it made sense.  There was no window of success, coach walked out on team, star QB in jail, a rebuild was the only option.  We aren’t in rebuild mode yet in my eyes, although it is on the horizon.  We have a lot of talent on this team still.  It will come down to wether or not the GM sees it that way or if they want to cut ties with Ryan.  I’m not saying never draft a QB in the top five, I’m saying the notion that you have to take one top five to get a franchise QB is false.  Most of the  best QBs in the league were taken later than that.  Therefor I would prefer if they are going to take a QB round one they traded back so we can add more talent as we won’t be able to through free agency with our cap space where it is.

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1 hour ago, jetpac said:

Lmao it makes no sense hence the only reason you can spew such ignorance. I’d love for you to Quote where I said “Ryan is the worst.” See how the works? Facts, things you lack. Comprehension as well, but we both know that now don’t we? 
 

I said take the play making QB at 4 and sit him, ala Packers (Two times now) and Chargers in 05. This gives Ryan two years maybe three to prove his worth. You popped in and said the dumbest crap I’ve ever read and the crazy thing is YOU THINK IT MAKES SENSE 😂😂😂

I popped in?  I’ve been on these boards for almost 2 decades.  Your examples are not apples to oranges.  Favre and Rivers were both in the old CBA prior to the new rookie wage scale, and Jordan Love was taken at pick 26, not 4.  If you take a QB top 5, they aren’t sitting year one.  If you want a future QB trade back and get more picks that can impact the team this year and next while that QB sits.

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22 minutes ago, insight said:

The GM and Head Coach will determine if the QB's in this draft is worthy of the 4th pick based on whether they believe the player can become the Franchise QB of the future.  The GM's draft board should decide who is picked based on their value assessment, not some arbitrary rational not to use a Top 5 pick on a QB. 

 If the  draft board  says they can find a franchise QB in round  2  or 6 so be it, but if they screw up the pick the team will be set back for years and they will probably lose their jobs. 

Why did we draft Matt Ryan with the #3 pick?  In 2008 the Falcons had Chris Redman and Joey Harrington which were still serviceable.  Based on your logic we should have never drafted Matt Ryan, with the 3rd pick because we had cap space tied up with Mike Vick and could find a QB later in the draft.   

Replacing older players  with younger less expensive talent is a massive savings.  If you can have your QB of the future sit and learn the NFL  behind a good QB I think it helps their development. 

Did you really just compare having harrington and redmon to having ryan? Really? 

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40 minutes ago, Atlchamp99 said:

I would say wait for 2022 but the QB's coming out next year look horrible so while I do thing we should not get a QB this year, we need too based on what's coming out next year...And you have to think about it like this, how many times are we going to have a top 5 pick? Take advantage, draft your QB of the future and sit him to learn from Matt. Its the simplest and most long term approach. 

Awesome, love me some peak .500 ball. And then we have nobody ready to go when we can finally walk from this albatross of Ryan's contract. What do you think, maybe get a dude in the 3-5 rounds and groom him, that the plan? 

So when we are average at best in 21' and picking around 15th or 22' picking around 15 again(again some good peak .500 ball)..what year do we need to mortgage the future to up to get the guy we need and could get in this draft? 

Just do not understand the idea of waiting? The window is 100% closed and the team is a mess all over the place? What is the goal over the next 2 years with no qb successor? Meaning, if your not grooming the future now what is the goal of the team if the eyes are focused on today? 

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3 minutes ago, PointSwayzee said:

Awesome, love me some peak .500 ball. And then we have nobody ready to go when we can finally walk from this albatross of Ryan's contract. What do you think, maybe get a dude in the 3-5 rounds and groom him, that the plan? 

So when we are average at best in 21' and picking around 15th or 22' picking around 15 again(again some good peak .500 ball)..what year do we need to mortgage the future to up to get the guy we need and could get in this draft? 

Just do not understand the idea of waiting? The window is 100% closed and the team is a mess all over the place? What is the goal over the next 2 years with no qb successor? Meaning, if your not grooming the future now what is the goal of the team if the eyes are focused on today? 

Name one team that sat a top 5 pick for a full year or two. Just one. 

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1 minute ago, Rings said:

I would barely say Harrington or Redman were serviceable, that year was a train wreck.  We needed a QB and it made sense.  There was no window of success, coach walked out on team, star QB in jail, a rebuild was the only option.  We aren’t in rebuild mode yet in my eyes, although it is on the horizon.  We have a lot of talent on this team still.  It will come down to wether or not the GM sees it that way or if they want to cut ties with Ryan.  I’m not saying never draft a QB in the top five, I’m saying the notion that you have to take one top five to get a franchise QB is false.  Most of the  best QBs in the league were taken later than that.  Therefor I would prefer if they are going to take a QB round one they traded back so we can add more talent as we won’t be able to through free agency with our cap space where it is.

 I agree with everything you said about 2007 but I do think we are in a mini rebuild mode.  We had the same 4-12 record this year as we did back with Chris Redman and no coach.   2016 was five years ago,  after  3 losing seasons in a row, I'm just  ready for change.

Regardless of who and where we pick in the draft I hope we are able to turn this thing around soon. 

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18 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Did you really just compare having harrington and redmon to having ryan? Really? 

I wanted Dorsey that year. Matt Ryan exceeded all expectations but he was far from a sure thing at the time. Matt Ryan didn't even start his 1st two years at Boston college and was a older prospect when he came out. 

 

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10 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Name one team that sat a top 5 pick for a full year or two. Just one. 

You are missing the point. Most teams picking in the top 5 are terrible teams who are starting over. They usually move on from the veteran QB and start a rookie.

We have had 3 losing seasons in a row but people refuse to acknowledge we are a bad team that needs to rebuild to win.

Since 2016 this team has been on the decline,  Falcons fans come up with every excuse why were losing.  It's the offensive line,  it's pass rush, it's the  secondary, it 's the running back, it's offensive coordinator, its the defensive coordinator, its the Head coach, its the GM and the Owner. 

The bottom line is you are who your record says you are. 

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