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Now that the GM is likely in place......Draft Strategy


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ok,  so Terry Fontenot is the guy.    Ian Rappoport I believe is fed information from league office since he works for NFL Network - he is usually money in the bank on his reporting so I believe it is correct that we are running w/ this.

 

I wanted to now focus on draft strategy.   As I was talking w/ my longtime Falcons friend on the phone today discussing Fontenot - the draft strategy became clear to me - well, the TWO STRATEGIES:

 

1) Draft the Franchise QB at #4

2) Trade Down

 

I disagree w/ anyone suggesting there should be a 3rd option.   If Justin Fields and/or Zach Wilson drop to #4 and Fontenot either doesn't like them OR doesn't believe now is the time to draft the replacement QB - then TRADE DOWN.   Some NFL team will be smitten with one of those QBs - who would likely be available at #4.       If we get an offensive minded HC  (Smith, Brady or Hackett) and he doesn't want Fields/Wilson then that is good enough for me at this point - what choice do I have?   Like I have always said, once we make the HC pick, the GM pick and the draft pick - your mine - you are a Falcon, let's ride.

 

TRADE DOWN: As nice as it would be to have an elite LB prospect like a Micah Parsons or an elite CB prospect like a Patrick Surtain - we all know this 4-12 team needs a lot.   This high position, if not spent on a QB, should be sold to the highest bidder.   Let's say we get Arthur Smith.    Smith may look at Najee as a poor-man's Travis Henry (he's not as big but just for arguments sake - go w/ it).     Well you certainly aren't spending a top 5 pick on Najee - but you might trade down a 1-2 times in first round and build up a lot of draft capital and do so.    I am not really into the 1st round RB strategy but just using as an example.

Maybe 2021, the year after Dimitroff fired, is the time to do the "Reverse Julio" trade  (and before that gets started, I liked the Julio trade).     Obviously you gotta do better than Cleveland did w/ all those picks.

One thing that will be fun in the 2021 draft is possible new draft philosophies and a more willingness to be a trade down guy than what TD did.   Let's be honest, we all knew there were basically THREE strategies in the Dimitroff playbook.   1) We draft for need early, 2) Stay Put,  3) Trade Up.......that was about it.   Will be fun to see a new fresh take on how to build a team.   (and btw, for all of Dimitroff's mistakes, he was best GM in Falcons history by a long shot).

Anyway, I really do think it is that simple.    

Trade Example:

Let's say Shanahan/Lynch/Niners fall in love w/ QB Zach Wilson/BYU and Fontenot and Falcons HC don't like him and aren't planning on taking a QB this year.   Niners have the 12th pick overall.    More than likely, if Niners wanted to move from #12 to #4, a package would probably include 1st(#12), 2nd(#44) and 2022 1st rd pick.

 

QB:    if new regime is in love w/ Fields or Wilson and they believe them a star/elite QB in the making,  then you make that pick and let them season for a year on the bench.

 

one

or

the other

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7 picks. 7 QBs.

ok,  so Terry Fontenot is the guy.    Ian Rappoport I believe is fed information from league office since he works for NFL Network - he is usually money in the bank on his reporting so I believe it is

Absolutely no draft scenario is can't miss. Not a single one  

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1 minute ago, JDaveG said:

I mean, you can say there can't be a 3rd option, but if those 3 QBs go top 3 and nobody wants to trade up, we have to make a non-QB pick at 4 (or pick another QB, which I believe would be colossally stupid).

I believe a team would potentially trade up for sewell. In a draft not absolutely loaded with qbs he would be a top 2 pick. Tons of teams need ot as well.

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1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

I believe a team would potentially trade up for sewell. In a draft not absolutely loaded with qbs he would be a top 2 pick. Tons of teams need ot as well.

I'm fine trading up.  My hypothetical, though, was that no one wanted to (or not at a value we deemed sufficient).  If that happens, do you pick the 4th best QB or take Sewell or another player?

Personally, if the team just says "we don't need a QB" and nobody wants to trade up for Fields or Wilson, I'm cool with that too.  I trust the new GM more than people on this board, myself included.

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6 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I mean, you can say there can't be a 3rd option, but if those 3 QBs go top 3 and nobody wants to trade up, we have to make a non-QB pick at 4 (or pick another QB, which I believe would be colossally stupid).

point taken.    I would just be surprised if they went 1, 2, 3 just like that.   I suppose it's possible.   that would really suck as I want the new GM to at least have the option of ransoming off the pick.

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9 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Trade Ryan and julio burn it down completely or trade down. Those are the options imo

 

I don't see the brass wanting to go full nuclear option.  They still have to put ***** in the stands.  If they mail it in, who the **** will shell out the already obscene price to watch?

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Just now, g-dawg said:

point taken.    I would just be surprised if they went 1, 2, 3 just like that.   I suppose it's possible.   that would really suck as I want the new GM to at least have the option of ransoming off the pick.

Me too.  My nightmare scenario would be the Jets taking a QB and then Miami trading out of their pick to a QB (or Sewell) hungry team.

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Just now, JDaveG said:

Me too.  My nightmare scenario would be the Jets taking a QB and then Miami trading out of their pick to a QB (or Sewell) hungry team.

i wouldn't care if Sewell went at #3 as I don't believe he is in play for Falcons anyway.

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2 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I'm fine trading up.  My hypothetical, though, was that no one wanted to (or not at a value we deemed sufficient).  If that happens, do you pick the 4th best QB or take Sewell or another player?

Personally, if the team just says "we don't need a QB" and nobody wants to trade up for Fields or Wilson, I'm cool with that too.  I trust the new GM more than people on this board, myself included.

What?? How is that possible.

Sure we don't have connections or access to the same information, nor do we have  the chance to work players out and pick their brain and see how much information that they can retain but.....we have youtube!

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10 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I mean, you can say there can't be a 3rd option, but if those 3 QBs go top 3 and nobody wants to trade up, we have to make a non-QB pick at 4 (or pick another QB, which I believe would be colossally stupid).

If we got to trade up for a qb then we have to do it. We wont be in this position for a long time

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3 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

But if the Dolphins trade down, that lessens the chance that we will be able to.

yeah but I don't really see anyone trading up for Sewell do you?   when is the last time an NFL team traded up into the top 5 and selected a Left Tackle?

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This is the draft you grab a franchise type quarterback when you are in the position the Falcons are in.  The drafts coming up don't look this good at quarterback. If they don't, then they are saying they can win a championship right now with the right coach and tweaks to the roster.

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7 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

What?? How is that possible.

Sure we don't have connections or access to the same information, nor do we have  the chance to work players out and pick their brain and see how much information that they can retain but.....we have youtube!

exactly.   YouTube is the most successful tool in all of scouting.   also helps if the music is good with the highlights.

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

yeah but I don't really see anyone trading up for Sewell do you?   when is the last time an NFL team traded up into the top 5 and selected a Left Tackle?

I don't.  I think if one of the top 3 QBs is there, though, and Miami doesn't take Sewell or one of the WRs, they could trade down and kneecap us.

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Just now, Spts1 said:

This is the draft you grab a franchise type quarterback when you are in the position the Falcons are in.  The drafts coming up don't look this good at quarterback. If they don't, then they are saying they can win a championship right now with the right coach and tweaks to the roster.

as a GM/Scout, it all comes down to if you believe Fields or Wilson are elite/star type players.    If you do, you draft the one of these guys you think there is - and you forget about the other strategies.  If you don't, then you don't and you embrace the "trade down" and see how much young talent we can bring in over the next two drafts and hope you "luck" into a QB along the way.

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2 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I don't.  I think if one of the top 3 QBs is there, though, and Miami doesn't take Sewell or one of the WRs, they could trade down and kneecap us.

certainly agree with that.   In that scenario, if the 3rd QB is Fontenot's guy - you may make the offer to move up one spot though.   It would suck as it would probably take our 2nd round pick but if the QB taken was the next Watson or Rogers, no one would care 3 years from now.

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