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Ryan's Legacy and the Next QB


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As evidenced in many threads, I'm not super impressed with any QB option in the draft. That said, I'm not staunchly opposed to any of the top "wish list" guys either. I think the QB position is one place where this organization has high standards. We have enjoyed a high level of QB play for over a decade. My response in many threads can be summed ups as: Will this guy's career equal Matt Ryan's?

As I sat quietly and reflected this morning, it finally sunk in to me that "Matt Ryan's" career is unique. While he doesn't have a gaudy collection of hardware, by every football stat known to the position he has a solid HOF resume. Therefore, there is a lot of room for the next guy to be outstanding, and still not = Ryan. Perhaps the "Ryan" standard is something I should reconsider personally. Over the history of the NFL, a very low percentage of first round QBs meet that standard statistically. 

For all of the pain Falcons fans have felt over the years, we now rightly expect a lot out of the QB position. The downside of that is I think we have so many doubts about organizational direction and leadership that we also look at whoever stands behind center and silently think: "Obiwan, you're our only hope." 

Matt Ryan is one of the only guys to ever play the position who is both a serious HOF candidate and generally regarded by his team's supporter as ultimately not good enough. Weather he was not good enough to beat every other team in the NFL or if he was just not good enough to overcome organizational weakness is something we will continue to debate. I think this is the root of the reason why so many are focused on the next QB and looking for the guy with the most potential super hero attributes. 

I close with this question: Is it likely that the legacy of the next Falcons QB is more likely to be determined by how well the GM and HC search goes than by how well he matches up to Matt Ryan statistically? 

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My theory? Just win baby. If you win championships, nobody is going to critique your form. If we have a sufficiently strong organization (scouting, coaching, roster/cap management, adaptability, etc.), the next QB will be wildly successful. There is no need to hold prospects to the Ryan standard. 

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17 minutes ago, falcndave said:

My theory? Just win baby. If you win championships, nobody is going to critique your form. If we have a sufficiently strong organization (scouting, coaching, roster/cap management, adaptability, etc.), the next QB will be wildly successful. There is no need to hold prospects to the Ryan standard. 

This, but there's a lot of intangible stuff too. Not a one size fits all deal

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26 minutes ago, falcndave said:

I close with this question: Is it likely that the legacy of the next Falcons QB is more likely to be determined by how well the GM and HC search goes than by how well he matches up to Matt Ryan statistically? 

Absolutely.  And I say absolutely because the legacy of the current Falcons QB is very much determined by poor coaching and roster management.  

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29 minutes ago, falcndave said:

As evidenced in many threads, I'm not super impressed with any QB option in the draft. That said, I'm not staunchly opposed to any of the top "wish list" guys either. I think the QB position is one place where this organization has high standards. We have enjoyed a high level of QB play for over a decade. My response in many threads can be summed ups as: Will this guy's career equal Matt Ryan's?

As I sat quietly and reflected this morning, it finally sunk in to me that "Matt Ryan's" career is unique. While he doesn't have a gaudy collection of hardware, by every football stat known to the position he has a solid HOF resume. Therefore, there is a lot of room for the next guy to be outstanding, and still not = Ryan. Perhaps the "Ryan" standard is something I should reconsider personally. Over the history of the NFL, a very low percentage of first round QBs meet that standard statistically. 

For all of the pain Falcons fans have felt over the years, we now rightly expect a lot out of the QB position. The downside of that is I think we have so many doubts about organizational direction and leadership than we also look at whoever stands behind center and silently think: "Obiwan, you're our only hope." 

Matt Ryan is one of the only guys to ever play the position who is both a serious HOF candidate and generally regarded by his team's supporter as ultimately not good enough. Weather he was not good enough to beat every other team in the NFL or if he was just not good enough to overcome organizational weakness is something we will continue to debate. I think this is the root of the reason why so many are focused on the next QB and looking for the guy with the most potential super hero attributes. 

I close with this question: Is it likely that the legacy of the next Falcons QB is more likely to be determined by how well the GM and HC search goes than by how well he matches up to Matt Ryan statistically? 

I wouldn’t make either of those factors mutually exclusive.  Both are equally important.  Our team had one but couldn’t quite muster the second part dammit.

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Winning can keep any 'he's not Matt' arguments from getting out of hand, but given enough time, many of the same people clamoring to replace Matt while he's got tons of great football left in him, will be calling for the next QBs head. 😄

It's simply fantasy for anyone to think the next guy, or the guy after that, will become Matt Ryan. Those are the unicorns and bigfoots (feet?) of NFL QBs. Let's just hope the next guy is, say, Jarred Goff level first. Competent and good at his job without wrecking the team's chances of winning.  

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I would say a combination of both, if the team wins a ring(s) and the QB is a Jared Goff/Jimmy G middle of the pack type of guy no one’s going to think of his talent as being on par with Matt’s. Now if he’s a big contribution to playoff wins and SBs then it absolutely play in his favor. However if the team sucks but he’s balling statistically say similar to Deshaun Watson then the stats would be the determining factor.

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21 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Winning can keep any 'he's not Matt' arguments from getting out of hand, but given enough time, many of the same people clamoring to replace Matt while he's got tons of great football left in him, will be calling for the next QBs head. 😄

It's simply fantasy for anyone to think the next guy, or the guy after that, will become Matt Ryan. Those are the unicorns and bigfoots (feet?) of NFL QBs. Let's just hope the next guy is, say, Jarred Goff level first. Competent and good at his job without wrecking the team's chances of winning.  

I don't think this will be popular today, but it will hold up over time. Well said.

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5 minutes ago, dapanch420 said:

Nobody was impressed by ryan before h3 got drafted and look how that turn out. Give these young guys a chance.

I was. The night I saw this kid I'd never heard of whip it around vs Ga Tech, I was like who is that guy, and why isn't he on my team?

 

I'm all for giving kids a chance, but when my current guy is still playing at a very high level, who that young guy is, is a discussion for a few years down the road. 

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Matt Ryan will forever be our greatest QB.  Sadly. I think his entire career, although by any measurement a resounding success, will be marred by the overall malaise of our teams culture.  He is almost an outlier in our teams history.  He is in fairly good company with past bright spots that all were like finding the last snickers bar in a garbage bag full of three musketeers.  

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59 minutes ago, HASHBROWN3 said:

I wouldn’t make either of those factors mutually exclusive.  Both are equally important.  Our team had one but couldn’t quite muster the second part dammit.

They are not binary or mutually exclusive. That said, I think one is more important than the other. I think you can "hide" an adequate QB in a great organization. Not sure it works the other way around. 

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15 minutes ago, Killing Floor said:


Draft the best next guy so he’ll be ready when his number is called. 
Why wouldn’t we?

 

Reading through all the related threads, I think this position is close to being an consensus assuming one of the top 3 prospects make it to the 4th pick. 

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58 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Winning can keep any 'he's not Matt' arguments from getting out of hand, but given enough time, many of the same people clamoring to replace Matt while he's got tons of great football left in him, will be calling for the next QBs head. 😄

It's simply fantasy for anyone to think the next guy, or the guy after that, will become Matt Ryan. Those are the unicorns and bigfoots (feet?) of NFL QBs. Let's just hope the next guy is, say, Jarred Goff level first. Competent and good at his job without wrecking the team's chances of winning.  

I mean it's entirely within the realm of possibility we draft the next future hall of fame QB. It's just extremely unlikely. 

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18 minutes ago, Killing Floor said:

Wins are the only stat that matters. That’s why the scoreboard is so big. 
Ryan has been extraordinary for the team and the city over the years. 

Draft the best next guy so he’ll be ready when his number is called. 
Why wouldn’t we?

 

We are going to have to do it at some point. Just that with a top 4 pick and 50% of our cap tied to untradable QB and WR it seems like maybe right now is no thte best time. 

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26 minutes ago, Killing Floor said:

Wins are the only stat that matters. That’s why the scoreboard is so big. 
Ryan has been extraordinary for the team and the city over the years. 

 

 

Yes...but. Y=f(x). Outputs (Y) are a function (f) of the inputs (x). 

In other words: The inputs of the coaches and players (often stats) are fairly critical to achieving the desired outcome (wins). 

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Yeah I think there is Matt Ryan and everyone else. Just like in New England there was Brady and everyone else. It’s the same in GB and NO. There are no guarantees that the next guy is Ryan. But there is a certainty that Ryan won’t play forever. In my opinion now is the best pick position and we should strike. But if our other gaps were addressed this winter and we pick a QB next year first (Sam Howell?) the end result would be the same. 

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1 hour ago, falcndave said:

As evidenced in many threads, I'm not super impressed with any QB option in the draft. That said, I'm not staunchly opposed to any of the top "wish list" guys either. I think the QB position is one place where this organization has high standards. We have enjoyed a high level of QB play for over a decade. My response in many threads can be summed ups as: Will this guy's career equal Matt Ryan's?

As I sat quietly and reflected this morning, it finally sunk in to me that "Matt Ryan's" career is unique. While he doesn't have a gaudy collection of hardware, by every football stat known to the position he has a solid HOF resume. Therefore, there is a lot of room for the next guy to be outstanding, and still not = Ryan. Perhaps the "Ryan" standard is something I should reconsider personally. Over the history of the NFL, a very low percentage of first round QBs meet that standard statistically. 

For all of the pain Falcons fans have felt over the years, we now rightly expect a lot out of the QB position. The downside of that is I think we have so many doubts about organizational direction and leadership that we also look at whoever stands behind center and silently think: "Obiwan, you're our only hope." 

Matt Ryan is one of the only guys to ever play the position who is both a serious HOF candidate and generally regarded by his team's supporter as ultimately not good enough. Weather he was not good enough to beat every other team in the NFL or if he was just not good enough to overcome organizational weakness is something we will continue to debate. I think this is the root of the reason why so many are focused on the next QB and looking for the guy with the most potential super hero attributes. 

I close with this question: Is it likely that the legacy of the next Falcons QB is more likely to be determined by how well the GM and HC search goes than by how well he matches up to Matt Ryan statistically? 

I think your are making it more complicated than it needs to be.  If the next QB can be a starter and play for 10+ years for this team, that's all you can ask for.  If he turns out to be like Joe Flacco, winning a championship but falling behind Matt Ryan's career numbers and no MVP, no Falcons fan is going to care.  The championship is all that matters.

Matt doesn't have a championship.  He still has a HOF career when things are very favorable for QBs.  This is a pass happy era.  Lots of yards, high completion percentage and less emphasis placed on a running game.  Ryan doesn't have anything to be ashamed of.  Sure, he like the rest of us which 2016 ended differently.  He is in the tail end of his career.  Things have lined up perfectly for the organization.  They have a very high pick in a strong QB class.  Do the right things and make a pick for your future.

 

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1 minute ago, Beast-N-Da-Sheetz said:

We could get a guy that might not ever put up the kind of numbers that Ryan has, but he could also be a multiple SB winner. Depends on what you prefer...

Yes. That was the message in the OP. If the organization is strong, no need to either look for the next Matt Ryan or try to improve on him. If you do, great. However, its not required for success.

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2 minutes ago, isproab said:

I think your are making it more complicated than it needs to be.  If the next QB can be a starter and play for 10+ years for this team, that's all you can ask for. 

That was the theme of the OP. Our conclusions are the same.

"Complicated" is an interesting take and I'll think about that for future posts. I'm a fairly narrative poster in style. I like to use examples, comparisons, and stories. I see how that could seem complicated in a Twitter world. 

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It really comes down to answering this basic question: in 2022, what option leaves the organization in a better position moving forward:  

• With Ryan: the team will have 62 million in cap space to help build another winner around Ryan.  Ryan will be almost 37 years old at this time

• Without Ryan: the team will have over 119 million to build a team around the newQB plus an additional 1st round pick once Ryan is traded 6/1.  New franchise QB will be 21-22 years old at this time

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1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

It really comes down to answering this basic question: in 2022, what option leaves the organization in a better position moving forward:  

• With Ryan: the team will have 62 million in cap space to help build another winner around Ryan.  Ryan will be almost 37 years old at this time

• Without Ryan: the team will have over 119 million to build a team around the newQB plus an additional 1st round pick once Ryan is traded 6/1.  New franchise QB will be 21-22 years old at this time

To me, that isn't really the question for this particular thread. It is certainly a key question for the next FO. The question I'm digging at here is more simplistic. Does the next guy have to be as good as or better than Matt Ryan for this organization to win championships? The answer is an obvious, "no." However, it does make for interesting discussion. 

I would propose that [insert best ever NFL QB here] couldn't promise one championship over their career within a weak organization. It could happen, but it would take some luck and some bad things happening to stronger organizations. 

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