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Do you think that the Falcons can get their QB of the future with their 3rd or 4th round pick?


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Lawrence will be gone by 4, of course. I have serious concerns about Fields' vision/decision making and he seems slow to make his reads - which will be lethal in the NFL. That leaves Zach Wilson. If the Falcons want a QB of the future and they fall in love with Wilson, and he's available at 4, then they should get him. I don't see any viable QB of the future guys after round 1. There could be a Russell Wilson - but there probably isn't - statistically at least.

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I keep seeing this argument from people regarding taking a QB early in the 1st, and Tom Brady is always the excuse.  But here is reality:  25* of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL were 1st round picks. 

Mac Jones won't make it out of the 1st. If posters think a top 10 QB (even top 5) is a crapshoot for a QB, and it is to a degree. Try coming up with the next face of the Falcons from the 3rd or 4th ro

I might be wrong. I hear the next six are all just DEs.

I’m not pretending to know exactly who our unknown GM and unknown coaches will agree to select in their first few rolling picks. Or even if their bosses will stand down and let them orchestrate the picks without meddling. 
 

But the more I think about this question I want to know why would we want to pick the centerpiece late? Either we need a next QB or we don’t. We have a contingency backup already. So my opinion which is meaningless is pick from the best available in the best draft position we’ve had in decades or don’t waste a pick for a desperation option.  Especially since QB isn’t the only position we should be planning for. 
 

Y’all know I’m not all in on Ryan but he’ll be good enough if we fill enough other gaps. So I think it would be a waste of a lineman or tackle or safety pick to grab a QB in the 4th who we’re probably not going to utilize next year. 
 

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37 minutes ago, PointSwayzee said:

Again what is your point?

With that half baked premise, Chris Redman would have done the same thing when Ryan was a rookie. Or was Matt Ryan the lone QB in the history of football that could breakdown film better than NFL veterans...please. Was Chris Redman better than Matt Ryan, the moment he arrived in Flowery Branch(my guess is yes)

Your argument is wildly flawed.

 

Oh, it’s fully baked. Nice and warm, right out of the oven.

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1 hour ago, EpicBird said:

Lawrence will be gone by 4, of course. I have serious concerns about Fields' vision/decision making and he seems slow to make his reads - which will be lethal in the NFL. That leaves Zach Wilson. If the Falcons want a QB of the future and they fall in love with Wilson, and he's available at 4, then they should get him. I don't see any viable QB of the future guys after round 1. There could be a Russell Wilson - but there probably isn't - statistically at least.

I heard Zach Wilson was an entitled brat. Although you could say the same thing about Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

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1 hour ago, Killing Floor said:

I’m not pretending to know exactly who our unknown GM and unknown coaches will agree to select in their first few rolling picks. Or even if their bosses will stand down and let them orchestrate the picks without meddling. 
 

But the more I think about this question I want to know why would we want to pick the centerpiece late? Either we need a next QB or we don’t. We have a contingency backup already. So my opinion which is meaningless is pick from the best available in the best draft position we’ve had in decades or don’t waste a pick for a desperation option.  Especially since QB isn’t the only position we should be planning for. 
 

Y’all know I’m not all in on Ryan but he’ll be good enough if we fill enough other gaps. So I think it would be a waste of a lineman or tackle or safety pick to grab a QB in the 4th who we’re probably not going to utilize next year. 
 

We are not winning anything next year.

Lets all be very realistic and take off the "Brotherhood" glasses. Even if everything goes correct, what is the ceiling of this team next year or the next 2? So, we continue to flounder for another 2 years, which would make a full 6 since the SB, what then? More mid teen draft picks and maybe develop some mid round QB. Seems like a really sound decision there🤥. Guess maybe then you want to be one of those teams that has to mortgage their future and trade up to be in position to draft a top rated QB(oh wait we are in that position now??)

God bless the next OC in here because some believe we are a good OC from the SB. I don't see this team remotely as good as some around here. Every year there is a new excuse and we should have been "this record" or "that record".

We were 4-12 and suck in every single phase of the game. As do all the other 4-12 teams in the history of football.

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25 minutes ago, PointSwayzee said:

We are not winning anything next year.

Lets all be very realistic and take off the "Brotherhood" glasses. Even if everything goes correct, what is the ceiling of this team next year or the next 2? So, we continue to flounder for another 2 years, which would make a full 6 since the SB, what then? More mid teen draft picks and maybe develop some mid round QB. Seems like a really sound decision there🤥. Guess maybe then you want to be one of those teams that has to mortgage their future and trade up to be in position to draft a top rated QB(oh wait we are in that position now??)

God bless the next OC in here because some believe we are a good OC from the SB. I don't see this team remotely as good as some around here. Every year there is a new excuse and we should have been "this record" or "that record".

We were 4-12 and suck in every single phase of the game. As do all the other 4-12 teams in the history of football.

I agree that we are looking at a 2-3 year road. But I think we can be closer to 6-7 wins next year and that might be a tougher place to pick a QB.  And I get that all miracles will need to happen for an entirely new staff to win “fast”.  
I’ve been accused of being a hater of Ryan, I don’t hate him but I do believe his vision and long game and mobility are fading so in order to “show up” in our division we need to add a short game and boost our secondary. I don’t hate Ryan but I 100% believe it’s time to plan for the successor and unless we go backwards we’re not picking this low again.  

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7 hours ago, Falcons Fan MVP said:

I heard Zach Wilson was an entitled brat. Although you could say the same thing about Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers and Brady think highly of themselves and demand excellence and total commitment from their teammates. I don’t have a problem with that. If Wilson is cut from that cloth, I’m good with it. If he’s a Ryan Leaf kind of spoiled brat, that’s another thing altogether. 

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9 hours ago, PointSwayzee said:

Again what is your point?

With that half baked premise, Chris Redman would have done the same thing when Ryan was a rookie. Or was Matt Ryan the lone QB in the history of football that could breakdown film better than NFL veterans...please. Was Chris Redman better than Matt Ryan, the moment he arrived in Flowery Branch(my guess is yes)

Your argument is wildly flawed.

 

soooooo you weren't around when Ryan beat out Redmond his rookie year, you know that year his first pro pass was a touchdown and he went on to win offensive rookie of the year?? that guy who was said to have a tremendous football IQ and had that 'it factor'. who amazed the staff by the way he broke down plays and tape 

LMAO  I think I see something here that actually IS wildly flawed

 

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It comes down to how much the staff feels QB is an immediate need. We can mention all the QBs taken in later rounds that have been successful, but all of those guys were unexpected surprises and exceed expectations, they were not QB desperate teams who just decided they can wait until rounds 3-6 because they are that good at scouting.

when Brady was taken in round 6 they had Bledsoe...NE didn’t enter that draft saying “we need a QB now, but will wait until round 6 to address it.” Guarantee They were as surprised as everyone with how Brady turned out.

Same with SEA...they didn’t have as sure thing as Bledsoe, but pre draft they spent good money on the UFA QB from the Chargers, who was a hot name to be a starter...they then took Wilson to have competition there, but not with the expectation that he would be the day one starter. Again they got lucky.

Schaub, Romo, Warner...all guys that exceeded expectations, teams got lucky. None of those guys were brought as mid- late round or UDFA guys to be the answer.

so, if ATL feels they need to replace Ryan right away and QB is an immediate need, they will take a guy at 4. When teams NEED a QB, they take them as early as possible, because it’s that important a position.

That said, if the Falcons feel they have 2-3 more years with Ryan they are more likely to take a guy anywhere after the top pick and develop him, while addressing more urgent needs. obviously this isn’t a guarantee or absolute, but precedent shows this is how teams generally address QB...especially if the team has a lot of needs and can’t afford a luxury pick (ie Packers w Love).

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Whether the Falcons draft Fields or Wilson or some other team you still have to remember what makes great Qbs.

1. Do they do alot of film study to get better. Work ethic.

2. Knowing that NFL defenses will find their weakness can they adjust to defenses?

3.Are they teachable or know it alls not taking direction.

4. Do they have a high Qb IQ? Feel for the game and intangibles you can't teach.

It wasn't long ago Josh Rosen was a high pick. RG 3 also alot of press clippings but neither hasxehat it takes to be stars.

 

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Like I said last year.. we should have taken Herbert for the future.. he's going to be one of the top 2 QBs in the league probably as soon as next season. I had him on both FF leagues and he produced almost exactly the same numbers as Tannehill . I had both on my FF team that won it all ,, But just imagine how good he will be with a couple more seasons ?? The sky is the limit for him ,, no wait.. only if his team gives him a good OL ..

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What is the bust rate of high QB picks? How about the "mediocre" rate?

Pretty high I'd say. 

Whatever it is, invert it and that's how many picks you need to get your franchise qb.

If 50% of attempts to get a franchise qb fail, then you need to allocate _two_ picks at least. Really, 3. (And that fail rate is probably higher than 50%).

There's nothing worse than being in a QB famine in the NFL. Plenty of teams suck for years because of it, and I don't want us to be one.

Frankly, the rational thing to do is pick 2 QBs this year and at least one next year, groom them all and see what happens. (No GM will likely do it because it looks bad, but it's probably the right thing to do).

 

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42 minutes ago, Draftnut57 said:

Like I said last year.. we should have taken Herbert for the future.. he's going to be one of the top 2 QBs in the league probably as soon as next season. I had him on both FF leagues and he produced almost exactly the same numbers as Tannehill . I had both on my FF team that won it all ,, But just imagine how good he will be with a couple more seasons ?? The sky is the limit for him ,, no wait.. only if his team gives him a good OL ..

1. he went well before we picked.

2. don’t care about FF, and it is not an indicator of team success.

that said he is a very promising QB.

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19 minutes ago, DriveHomeSafelyAtlantaWins said:

What is the bust rate of high QB picks? How about the "mediocre" rate?

Pretty high I'd say. 

Whatever it is, invert it and that's how many picks you need to get your franchise qb.

If 50% of attempts to get a franchise qb fail, then you need to allocate _two_ picks at least. Really, 3. (And that fail rate is probably higher than 50%).

There's nothing worse than being in a QB famine in the NFL. Plenty of teams suck for years because of it, and I don't want us to be one.

Frankly, the rational thing to do is pick 2 QBs this year and at least one next year, groom them all and see what happens. (No GM will likely do it because it looks bad, but it's probably the right thing to do).

 

Bust rate (out of the league or benched before their first contract is up) is 60% in the top 10 from 1998-2016. Out of those remaining 40% that "pan out" around 25% are good but not great. 

Here is the complete list of top 10 QBs from 1998-2016. Busts in Bold, non busts in purple. 

QBs: Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Luck, Griffin, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Bradford, Mat Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan, Jam Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinert, Alex Smith, Eli, Rivers, Palmer, Leftwich, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith,  PaytonLeaf.

 

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1 hour ago, 1989Fan said:

1. he went well before we picked.

2. don’t care about FF, and it is not an indicator of team success.

that said he is a very promising QB.

FF goes by the  exact production of the player..  Herbert and Tannehill both were in the top two QBs this season... 

Point is ,, Yes,, it is an indicator of how well a team plays...  If the QB AINT RIGHT , no TEAM WILL DO WELL. They are the one person that has to do his job better than anybody else on the team.. :shrug:  I thought everybody knew that... And that's why when a team drafts in Real NFL .. and even in your FFL.. If you don't get a top QB,, you can for get  it.. your not going anywhere without a top QB. 

And that's why i say , if the Fo is going to take a QB , we should take one with our first round .. #4....

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On 1/12/2021 at 8:35 AM, PointSwayzee said:

Mac Jones won't make it out of the 1st. If posters think a top 10 QB (even top 5) is a crapshoot for a QB, and it is to a degree. Try coming up with the next face of the Falcons from the 3rd or 4th round. Better yet, if your a GM do you make that bet?

I swear if I see one more Tom Brady reference. For every Tom Brady I give you 100 Kurt Kittner's, Turk Schoenert's and the mythical Tony G.

Or R Leaf...my bad he's a 1st

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On 1/12/2021 at 8:27 AM, Falcons Fan MVP said:

Someone like Mac Jones maybe?

What's the latest round that you think the Falcons could draft a good quarterback for the future in this year's draft class?

 

I think Mac could sneak into the 1st round.  He has likely solidified himself as a day 2 pick at the least.  Stranger things have happened of course. 

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