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NFL Wildcard Weekend Thread


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2 minutes ago, Michael Scott said:

Show those numbers please. You are dead wrong

Analytics say a team never improves their chances at coming from behind Punting down 19. Win % goes to nothing...but goes up a bit if you convert...but if we want to rely on the Browns allowing TDs in 4 plays every drive? Sure that’s one way to become the ONLY team to win in that same scenario that opted to punt.

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2 minutes ago, Michael Scott said:

Show those numbers please. You are dead wrong

I'm not. Going for it was the right call. Punt did nothing to help the Steelers win probability. Winning percentage drops from 18% to 11% with a punt in that situation. Titans made the same mistake in their game.

 

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1 minute ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Analytics say a team never improves their chances at coming from behind Punting down 19. Win % goes to nothing...but goes up a bit if you convert...but if we want to rely on the Browns allowing TDs in 4 plays every drive? Sure that’s one way to become the ONLY team to win in that same scenario that opted to punt.

Man you are exhausting with your analytics. There are ALWAYS other things to consider in these situations, many of which you would only know if you are actually coaching the team on the sidelines and understand the psyche and emotions and injury situations and various other intangibles going on with your team at that moment. 

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1 minute ago, KRUNKuno said:

nah I really think that punt sealed it.  steelers offense had been moving at will.  no need to punt there.

 

If anything, you could argue you save more time by letting Browns potentially get ball back if they were gonna score anyway.

All of this is in large part shaped around time remaining relative to the score.

When completely dumb series of plays happen like Browns getting gashed for a quick TD? That skews the usually predictive way to understand who actually has control of win scenarios.

Relying on one sided drives and easy scores isn’t reliable football even if it happens once every million tries.

Or every few games if you are the Falcons! :ninja:

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3 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

Their defense can’t get a stop anymore. Doubt it happens at this point. 

When this much time was remaining(8-9mins?), it was 28-12 and then we opted into the shot play where Free whiffed...otherwise it would be akin to Steelers getting a turnover right now but having to drive the field. It’s unlikely Pitt wins without gift turnovers and more quick scores. Just run clock. Can’t lose unless you make it easy for them.

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