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The Falcons and Trade Possibilities


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Not looking at players on rookie contracts because that'd take forever and generate less discussion. This is more about cap savings.

For the record - I would hate most of these trades and a lot of my favorite players are here. Not advocating for or against any of these trades, just putting the info out there, saying what makes the most sense if the new staff wants to move on from the player in question, and discussing possible compensation. Feel free to come to your own conclusions about which trades we should actually make.

Matt Ryan (costs 3.5 mil, save 23 mil post-June 1st or midseason)

It doesn't make sense to try and trade Ryan before the draft, but if there's a team after June 1st still needing a QB and this org has a lot of confidence in a rookie they took at 4, it'd free up a ton of space. San Francisco could make sense, or a place like Denver with someone like Lock sitting behind him. While some might say Ryan won't land much compensation due to "age," he's only 35 and will start the year at 36. Not even mentioning the obvious Brees and Brady in their 40s comparisons, guys like Rivers are playing at 39. And if Ryan isn't as good where he is traded, the cap isn't nearly as prohibitive with us eating his pro-rated signing bonuses. If Ryan is traded, he'll definitely land a 2nd and 4th at worst, but likely a 1st plus.

Julio Jones (costs 200k, save 15.3 mil post-June 1st or midseason)

Much like Ryan, any kind of Julio trade before June 1st means you're paying for a top-paid player to not even be on your team. Not to mention, you're likely to get more for Julio if you trade him mid-season when a team is dealing with injuries or if they think a receiver will push them over the top (see: Sanu for a 2nd). Julio can easily net either a 1st from a contender (read: late 1st) or a 2nd and a day 3 pick.

Grady Jarrett (save 9.8 mil, save 15.3 mil post-June 1st or midseason)

Grady can be traded at any time to net at least one 1st rounder and likely more. He's one of the best 3 DTs in the NFL on a reasonable contract that becomes even more reasonable with us taking a chunk of that pro-rated guaranteed money.

Deion Jones (saves 780k, save 8.7 mil post-June 1st or midseason)

LBs as good as Debo almost never get traded. Even ones close to as good as Debo are only traded if they have behavioral problems (see: Jamie Collins) and it's hard to project what Debo would be worth given LBs are devalued in today's NFL. Would anyone trade Debo for 2nd midseason and rolling cap relief? Ehhhh. 

Dante Fowler (save 9.3 mil, save 14 mil post-June 1st or midseason)

This is one I could more realistically see happening early. If there's a team that thinks they can max Fowler out at the double digit sacks we saw before, they can get him for a reasonable first year number since we take a good chunk of that guaranteed money. And if he fails, there's hardly any dead money left, so he's an easy cut either midseason or year 3. I think a 4th round pick is the sweet spot here, but even a 5th is ok if he isn't factoring into the team's plans.

Jake Matthews (save 1.4 mil, save 13 mil post-June 1st or midseason)

This becomes way more likely if we stay at our pick and take Sewell. Matthews is still an upper echelon left tackle, but if Sewell is adjusting well and we need to round out the roster after June 1st, it could make sense to make this move. If other teams are wanting to shore up their OL, it makes sense to trade a 2nd round pick for a guy like Matthews on a relatively reasonable contract for a LT.

Ricardo Allen (save 6.3 mil, save 6.3 mil post-June 1st or midseason)

This is a weird one, but I think they'll at least try to shop Rico before cutting him. Either way, Rico won't be on the team in 2021, but a 5th or 6th rounder would be a nice parting gift if someone likes his play and wants to ensure they land him. If not, we save the same money regardless.

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Allen should just be among the cuts. I really don't see a way he's retained. The 7th (Allen), 8th (Carpenter), 9th (Bailey), and 10th (Davison) highest cap hits on our roster for 2021, I see as obvious cuts; don't really see how they won't be

Fowler (5th highest) really depends on if we can find a partner. With that guaranteed salary, you're basically just trading him to make the cap space dump.

After that, you've got over half (even with the highest cap projections) of your cap taken up by 5 players. That's what really concerns me. Suppose we don't trade anyone else, it's going to be very difficult to field a competitive team with no real cap space. It's why I'm not really calling for the trades of the top cap holders, but I can understand it at least. If you go come to the conclusion that we can't reach the postseason, and/or do anything when you get there, then there's an argument to be made, that the better choice in the long term is just to clear the cap, and start fresh in 2022.

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2 minutes ago, 1989Fan said:

Good post. If this team traded Grady I’d be done 😂 

Of all our highest cap hits, trading Grady would surprise me the most, followed by Deion Jones

Then it's between Ryan, Julio, and Matthews

The rest of the top 10 I'd be surprised if we don't move on from them this offseason

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1 minute ago, hjerry said:

Of all our highest cap hits, trading Grady would surprise me the most, followed by Deion Jones

Then it's between Ryan, Julio, and Matthews

The rest of the top 10 I'd be surprised if we don't move on from them this offseason

Yeah, they're building blocks (Grady and Debo) and honestly, their contracts are pretty reasonable right now. But you never know how the new guys will see this roster.

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Great post. My opinion is we do not trade any of the top 5 before mid-season (Ryan, Grady, Julio, Matthews, and Debo). If I am a new head coach and GM, I would take a shot with the current core and see how we look mid season.

If we have another bad 1st half of the season, I think you start looking at blowing things up. I think Matthews and Julio would be the first to be traded. It is easier to trade a WR/LT and they are always positions of need. Ryan would be challenging since it would be a midseason trade and it is tough for QB's. It would have to be a special circumstance like going to SF.

No matter what happens I don't think you trade Grady or Debo. They are young and on reasonable contracts. No reason to trade them for draft picks. You only trade people when you risk losing them for nothing or they are too expensive.

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1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

I don’t let it be known I want to trade any of my well paid guys I let teams come knocking to try and leverage better value.I don’t go offering first because teams will then no we are in the desperation stakes to move them then value will be less offered.

We already know that teams came knocking about the Matt, Julio, and Matthews during the season up until the trade deadline. I'd say it's safe to say, they'll start calling again as soon as we have a GM

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1 minute ago, Malachore said:

Been his nickname for as long as he's been here.

Pretty sure that's what his mom calls him.

Don't think I have ever once heard someone refer to him as that, especially a grown man but good to know. 😂

Edited by PriMeTiiMe
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26 minutes ago, Jpg428gggg said:

Great post. My opinion is we do not trade any of the top 5 before mid-season (Ryan, Grady, Julio, Matthews, and Debo). If I am a new head coach and GM, I would take a shot with the current core and see how we look mid season.

that's where my heads at. not necessarily the "take a shot" part, but the new staff will probably use next season as more of an evaluation period. i could see a huge roster turnover by 2022, and an almost total turnover by 2023, but won't be as much this offseason as people think.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

that's where my heads at. not necessarily the "take a shot" part, but the new staff will probably use next season as more of an evaluation period. i could see a huge roster turnover by 2022, and an almost total turnover by 2023, but won't be as much this offseason as people think.

That is what makes the most sense.  I just don't see a total nuke job next year.  Oh people will be gone, but the core will stay unless they get offers that they cannot refuse.  Weirder things have happened.

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16 minutes ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

that's where my heads at. not necessarily the "take a shot" part, but the new staff will probably use next season as more of an evaluation period. i could see a huge roster turnover by 2022, and an almost total turnover by 2023, but won't be as much this offseason as people think.

Yeah, I agree that a whole season makes the most sense. My thinking is that if things go south quickly then we could try to trade one of our assets to a desperate team for more compensation. A Sanu type trade...

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Just one point I want to mention about the possible trading of Ryan and Julio

 

No, trading them does nothing to help our cap space THIS YEAR, but it does save us roughly 65 MILLION on 2022's cap. It would give us a TON of flexibility to re-work some contracts (grady, debo, mathews) to give us some cap relief this year. It helps our cap situation immensely no matter how you look at it. Savings don't have to just come from this year.

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4 hours ago, Jpg428gggg said:

Yeah, I agree that a whole season makes the most sense. My thinking is that if things go south quickly then we could try to trade one of our assets to a desperate team for more compensation. A Sanu type trade...

Yeah. It also gives the new guys time to feel things out and see how different players look in their scheme. It makes sense in pretty much every way for most of these guys besides Allen and Fowler (though tbh even Fowler could look better next year)

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On 1/8/2021 at 12:30 PM, 1989Fan said:

Good post. If this team traded Grady I’d be done 😂 

The better question is why wouldn't you trade him?  I believe odds are certainly leaning towards the Falcons drafting a QB this draft.  We are not a Super bowl contender if we just add another couple draft picks to the roster.  Jarrett has two years left on his contract at $20.8 and $23.8 for 21/22.  San Fran traded Buckner for the 13th pick in the draft.  If you could get close to this value do it.

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