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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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3 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Boy, you really had to dig deep to build such a flimsy case.

Ryan = Senyor 18-30 Squared

...and if you think Ryan wasn’t actively losing games for the Falcons the last three years, well...what color is the sky in your world.

Also, YPA includes YAC, it also includes incompletions, as well as throw aways, so that number can be skewed.  It’s simply total yards divided by attempts.  After looking into it Ryan actually had a much higher average depth of target than Brees did. 

Ryan: 9.4
Ben: 8.0
Brees: 6.8

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1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t. 2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t. 3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage s

I think our chance of winning one in the next three years is higher with Ryan than a QB we could take this year.  After that you take a QB that gives you a better chance the following five years than

With a better OC and a better defense, why couldn't we??

18 minutes ago, Rings said:

Also, YPA includes YAC, it also includes incompletions, as well as throw aways, so that number can be skewed.  It’s simply total yards divided by attempts.  After looking into it Ryan actually had a much higher average depth of target than Brees did. 

Ryan: 9.4
Ben: 8.0
Brees: 6.8

Deeper and deeper...

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1 hour ago, Lornoth said:

Not necessarily. If you don't have even the threat of a running game the other team can sell out for the pass, leading to more of those throws being incompletes (or worse). Koetter's propensity for throwing it deep also leads to more incompletions than any offense Brees has ever been in. Add in the fact that these incompletes on 1st or 2nd down lead to Ryan being forced to throw the ball into tighter windows further down the field on 3rd down to keep the drive going, and it's a jacob's ladder effect of poor results. 

You're right in correcting me that it's not necessarily the volume of throws (though that is indicative of larger issues), but you have to see how those throws came about to see why Ryan's offense has been anything but QB friendly the last few years. 

That is true, but Brady and Mahomes have similar issues still put up great numbers, and the Steelers were #31 in 2018. You can still have a good enough offense without a run game, just not great. 

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42 minutes ago, Rings said:

Also, YPA includes YAC, it also includes incompletions, as well as throw aways, so that number can be skewed.  It’s simply total yards divided by attempts.  After looking into it Ryan actually had a much higher average depth of target than Brees did. 

Ryan: 9.4
Ben: 8.0
Brees: 6.8

Imagine playcalling like...existing or being “reality“. 👀😩😁

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17 hours ago, Rings said:

I like accurate information so I can make an informed decision.  I’m sorry you don’t like or can’t comprehend that kind of info.

57-71

18-30 twice during that stretch.

Sorry the simple facts destroy your ‘depth of target’ justifications for substandard results.

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4 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

57-71

18-30 twice during that stretch.

Sorry the simple facts destroy your ‘depth of target’ justifications for substandard results.

What are you even referencing?  Record?  As in TEAM record?  Your rebuttal to Ryan vs Brees depth of target and why RYAN isn’t good enough is a TEAM STAT?  

I understand now, my fault for thinking I could have a logical football conversation with you.  Enjoy your weekend. 

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On 1/4/2021 at 12:43 AM, Rings said:

1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t.

2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t.

3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage scale and save a ton of money for five years and build around him...we are still paying Ryan so that isn’t a thing, and we have no money to surround that person with talent.

4) The flawed logic of “we won’t be drafting this high in a long time we we have to take our QB of the future”. This is wrong for two reasons.  QBs taken in the top five have been less successful then the rest of the fist round, and that includes trade ups so it isn’t always bad teams,  second, and most importantly, if we are going to be drafting later the next few years, that means we are winning...with Matt Ryan...so we don’t need a QB right now.

5) Our offense will look night and day better once DK is gone.  He made everyone on offense, including Ryan, look worse than they are.

6) We gave up 44 points today, had a fluke INT and they took a knee on our side of the field, and some think QB is the problem.

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about.

Well said Rings !  Rookie QBs take time to develop, like reading defenses, throwing on time with different drops etc. Josh Rosen was terrible his first two years with his completion pct. He has finally improved this year.  The Falcons are not in a complete rebuild mode. Drafting a young QB at #4 would be senseless, we have other more pressing needs. We should trade down and pick up those extra picks to get the patches we need for the O line, D Line , RB and CB. Then we will be competitive again.

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On 1/8/2021 at 12:12 AM, vanhino said:

Ryan outplayed Mahomes (who is considered the gold standard of NFL quarterbacking by many people) 2 weeks ago:

 

Matt Ryan quarterback rating: 81.4

Patrick Mahomes quarterback rating: 67.5

 So your reasoing is Mahomes is great QB that has a bad game, and Ryan did better than Mahomes that week, therefore Ryan can win a SB. Google "relative privation".

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On 1/4/2021 at 12:43 AM, Rings said:

1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t.

2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t.

3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage scale and save a ton of money for five years and build around him...we are still paying Ryan so that isn’t a thing, and we have no money to surround that person with talent.

4) The flawed logic of “we won’t be drafting this high in a long time we we have to take our QB of the future”. This is wrong for two reasons.  QBs taken in the top five have been less successful then the rest of the fist round, and that includes trade ups so it isn’t always bad teams,  second, and most importantly, if we are going to be drafting later the next few years, that means we are winning...with Matt Ryan...so we don’t need a QB right now.

5) Our offense will look night and day better once DK is gone.  He made everyone on offense, including Ryan, look worse than they are.

6) We gave up 44 points today, had a fluke INT and they took a knee on our side of the field, and some think QB is the problem.

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about.

In support of your excellent post might I add the following for discussion 

 

I know that this is a broken record and some will disagree, but stats matter to a point. Are they the end-all? Nah, but over an appropriate sample size, even the most basic of stats are pretty **** indicators of success and great descriptors of capability and inherent risk.

Here is QBs average stats across 13 yr period:

4290 yds, 28 total TDs, 12 ints

this includes a sophomore year as the outlier with under 3k yds. 
‘remarkably, even the MVP season wasn’t a massive outlier. A bit.

We can say stats are meaningless if we’re talking a QB with less than 5 years. But over 13 years? Thro in only 3 missed games over 13 years, which is important because if you are not available, you cannot add value.

‘the reason I bring this up is @Vandymade a huge and valid point the QB is a piece of the whole, not the whole enchilada (ok I paraphrased a bit)

whats remarkable is this years stat line was 4581 yds, 28 total TDs and 11 ints.

now, I’ll go geeky since stats are my game in real life. If I’m actually refining my analysis I’d have to include the following as limiting factors and assumptions:

1) the system. Is it a high success  percentage with more effort and sometimes lesser reward type system like bill Walsh’s or Andy Reid’s even? Or is at low success percentage but possible higher reward with less effort system like all the dam coryell based systems?

2) running game efficiency and effectiveness. I think that we all agree that rarely, if ever, do we see a truly great QB system without this

—I didn’t break down but at first glance, the worst seasons of this QB (which are still consistent overall) were in systems with ineffective and inefficient running games

3) overall defense. There is a symbiotic relationship between a defense, which by definition “protects a lead” and the idea of an offense which by definition “increases a lead. A bit simplistic, but still valid

4) coaching. Coaches are leaders and in military parlance the leader is ultimately responsible to put his troops in a position of success. Risk is mitigated or increased by strategic and tactical decisions. Without strategy and tactics, a soldier is just a dude with a gun. With strategy and tactics he’s a capability, add in right team mix and we have a force multiplier 

i don’t see decline in durability, statistical output, predictably of success vs non success.

‘Money is probably the only possible negative, but let’s be real. QB salaries and contracts tend to be sunk costs over a longer period than other positions.

‘if I’m a GM and HC with an old owner, who’s probably impatient  will take a path of less risk and integrate more capability. Unless there is a mandatory rebuild strategy implemented 

one last factor, did y’all know that Todd Gurley had zero TDs his last 6 games? And only one fishing TD (Ito smith) occurred over that 6 game stretch?

that’s indicative of a horrid scheme, bad and predictable play calling and also places an enormous load on the back of the QB and receivers in a high risk situation. Remarkably except for saints games (knowledge of opponent?), this QB was sensational over that same 6 game stretch

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On 1/4/2021 at 8:30 PM, autigerfan said:

Could make sense especially if we traded down to 10-12 and got an extra 2nd and 3rd this year.  

Id rather get a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year but your right. The best way to draft is 2012s way. Horde top 100 picks. The draft is just such a crazy shoot these days. Always was but seems more so the past 15 years or so

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On 1/5/2021 at 3:52 PM, jetpac said:

Y'all are so weird. It would take (according to yall) THREE 1st and THREE 2nd and THREE 3rd to get from 4 to 1.... But from 4 to 10 we'd get an extra second and third. So you want to give up a chance to get someone like Fields or Wilson to get an additional second and third? I'm so glad we have professionals running this team. 

Fields is going to be nothing special. Hes not a super special prospect. Hes by no means a cant miss guy. If you don't have a cant miss guy #4 the value is to trade back. Especially since it isnt a position of need

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3 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

 So your reasoing is Mahomes is great QB that has a bad game, and Ryan did better than Mahomes that week, therefore Ryan can win a SB. Google "relative privation".

You wanted me to provide evidence of Ryan playing well in 2020. I provided evidence that Ryan outplayed the last Super Bowl MVP head to head! Make all of the excuses that you want for Mahomes, but the fact is Ryan outplayed him while playing on a far worse team.

 

How about you provide evidence that the offensive play calling by Koetter has been good in 2020? Also, please provide evidence that the Falcons run game has been good.

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39 minutes ago, vanhino said:

You wanted me to provide evidence of Ryan playing well in 2020. I provided evidence that Ryan outplayed the last Super Bowl MVP head to head! Make all of the excuses that you want for Mahomes, but the fact is Ryan outplayed him while playing on a far worse team.

 

How about you provide evidence that the offensive play calling by Koetter has been good in 2020? Also, please provide evidence that the Falcons run game has been good.

You didn't provide evidence that Ryan can win a SB in 2021 or beyond. You showed that one week, Ryan played better than Mahomes. Not that Ryan even did great that week, but Mahomes did poorly and Ryan did better.

 

As for Koetter, you are asking me to defend a position I don't have. Don't try to burden shift. You obviously didn't google relative privation. If you did, you would have realized the flaw in your reasoning.

 

So this is what a relative privation is:

https://academy4sc.org/topic/fallacy-of-relative-privation-all-problems-are-relative/

Also, using your reasoning ANY QB can win the SB if they had one better week than Mahomes. So it is a non-sequitur to boot. We could cut Matt Ryan, avoid using a number 1 in any future draft on any QB, and just find any QB that's cheaper that did better than Mahomes for 1 week in a head to head. Seems totally reasonable right?

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2 hours ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Fields is going to be nothing special. Hes not a super special prospect. Hes by no means a cant miss guy. If you don't have a cant miss guy #4 the value is to trade back. Especially since it isnt a position of need

I agree, I'm not really sold on Fields. But Wilson? Man if he's there you GOT to take him.

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47 minutes ago, Intellectually Honest said:

You didn't provide evidence that Ryan can win a SB in 2021 or beyond. You showed that one week, Ryan played better than Mahomes. Not that Ryan even did great that week, but Mahomes did poorly and Ryan did better.

 

As for Koetter, you are asking me to defend a position I don't have. Don't try to burden shift. You obviously didn't google relative privation. If you did, you would have realized the flaw in your reasoning.

 

So this is what a relative privation is:

https://academy4sc.org/topic/fallacy-of-relative-privation-all-problems-are-relative/

Also, using your reasoning ANY QB can win the SB if they had one better week than Mahomes. So it is a non-sequitur to boot. We could cut Matt Ryan, avoid using a number 1 in any future draft on any QB, and just find any QB that's cheaper that did better than Mahomes for 1 week in a head to head. Seems totally reasonable right?

You can't provide any evidence that Ryan can't win a SB in 2021 or beyond. I believe that he still can.

 

You are fixated on Ryan, and Ryan only, for some reason. Ryan is an important part of the Falcons but he isn't the only part. NO QB can win games by themselves. Football is a team sport and QBs need good offensive playcalling and decent defenses to win (none of which Ryan has). Talking about burden shifting, you blame Ryan for all offensive woes. You not having a position regarding Koetter is baffling to me.

 

It would be very hard to find a QB right now that has outplayed Mahomes head to head. Ryan did, and the Falcons will keep him and hopefully get good offensive playcalling and a decent defense. Then the Falcons will start to win games.

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1 hour ago, vanhino said:

You can't provide any evidence that Ryan can't win a SB in 2021 or beyond. I believe that he still can.

 

You are fixated on Ryan, and Ryan only, for some reason. Ryan is an important part of the Falcons but he isn't the only part. NO QB can win games by themselves. Football is a team sport and QBs need good offensive playcalling and decent defenses to win (none of which Ryan has). Talking about burden shifting, you blame Ryan for all offensive woes. You not having a position regarding Koetter is baffling to me.

 

It would be very hard to find a QB right now that has outplayed Mahomes head to head. Ryan did, and the Falcons will keep him and hopefully get good offensive playcalling and a decent defense. Then the Falcons will start to win games.

I never claimed that he can't. I believe he probably won't and the older he gets that probability grows larger. You are still burden shifting.

As far as fixation goes, I am OK if the Falcons won a SB with Ryan. I am not anti-Ryan. I am just pro Falcons, with or without Ryan. It seems you want the Falcons to win a SB for Ryan rather than the other way around.

Also you are just being stubborn with your poor reasoning. As if being stubborn will make it truer.  Ryan will be 36. Most QBs do not win a SB at that age. You can find exceptions. But unless the team is great, it's highly unlikely.

But it is you who are fixated on Ryan. You say the Falcons have a worse team than the Chiefs. Ryan is part of that team. You speak as if it's Ryan + the Falcons. That Ryan needs better players for HIM to win a SB. Did you ever consider that the Falcons could use a better QB to win a SB? Anyway, even using YOUR belief, by the time Ryan gets this defense you crave so much, he will be that much older, and that much less likely to succeed.

I agree with Cowherd when he says Ryan needs virtually perfect offense to be great. Problem is it will never be that way, and Ryan fans like you will always have an excuse that "we just need better players to surround him". It will either be other offensive players or defensive players, or the coach.

You accept an unfalsifiable hypothesis, since you have no way to accept that Ryan is a problem. He isn't a horrible QB, but he isn't great either. Great QBs carry their team. Based on YOUR belief, you think the team needs to be great to carry Ryan to a SB win. Even if that hypothetical played out, he isn't worth the money, if indeed that did happen since Ryan more or less would be along for the ride.

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1 hour ago, Intellectually Honest said:

I never claimed that he can't. I believe he probably won't and the older he gets that probability grows larger. You are still burden shifting.

As far as fixation goes, I am OK if the Falcons won a SB with Ryan. I am not anti-Ryan. I am just pro Falcons, with or without Ryan. It seems you want the Falcons to win a SB for Ryan rather than the other way around.

Also you are just being stubborn with your poor reasoning. As if being stubborn will make it truer.  Ryan will be 36. Most QBs do not win a SB at that age. You can find exceptions. But unless the team is great, it's highly unlikely.

But it is you who are fixated on Ryan. You say the Falcons have a worse team than the Chiefs. Ryan is part of that team. You speak as if it's Ryan + the Falcons. That Ryan needs better players for HIM to win a SB. Did you ever consider that the Falcons could use a better QB to win a SB? Anyway, even using YOUR belief, by the time Ryan gets this defense you crave so much, he will be that much older, and that much less likely to succeed.

I agree with Cowherd when he says Ryan needs virtually perfect offense to be great. Problem is it will never be that way, and Ryan fans like you will always have an excuse that "we just need better players to surround him". It will either be other offensive players or defensive players, or the coach.

You accept an unfalsifiable hypothesis, since you have no way to accept that Ryan is a problem. He isn't a horrible QB, but he isn't great either. Great QBs carry their team. Based on YOUR belief, you think the team needs to be great to carry Ryan to a SB win. Even if that hypothetical played out, he isn't worth the money, if indeed that did happen since Ryan more or less would be along for the ride.

That’s a false narrative that “great QB’s carry their teams.” No they don’t. No QB ever has outside of maybe Peyton for 1 or 2 years in Indy. All QB’s need to be set up for success. Look at Russell Wilson. He’s considered a top 2 QB and his team lost today, at home, to a team who started its backup. That doesn’t mean Wilson blew it. So many things that happen in games are completely out of the QB’s control 

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6 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

I never claimed that he can't. I believe he probably won't and the older he gets that probability grows larger. You are still burden shifting.

As far as fixation goes, I am OK if the Falcons won a SB with Ryan. I am not anti-Ryan. I am just pro Falcons, with or without Ryan. It seems you want the Falcons to win a SB for Ryan rather than the other way around.

Also you are just being stubborn with your poor reasoning. As if being stubborn will make it truer.  Ryan will be 36. Most QBs do not win a SB at that age. You can find exceptions. But unless the team is great, it's highly unlikely.

But it is you who are fixated on Ryan. You say the Falcons have a worse team than the Chiefs. Ryan is part of that team. You speak as if it's Ryan + the Falcons. That Ryan needs better players for HIM to win a SB. Did you ever consider that the Falcons could use a better QB to win a SB? Anyway, even using YOUR belief, by the time Ryan gets this defense you crave so much, he will be that much older, and that much less likely to succeed.

I agree with Cowherd when he says Ryan needs virtually perfect offense to be great. Problem is it will never be that way, and Ryan fans like you will always have an excuse that "we just need better players to surround him". It will either be other offensive players or defensive players, or the coach.

You accept an unfalsifiable hypothesis, since you have no way to accept that Ryan is a problem. He isn't a horrible QB, but he isn't great either. Great QBs carry their team. Based on YOUR belief, you think the team needs to be great to carry Ryan to a SB win. Even if that hypothetical played out, he isn't worth the money, if indeed that did happen since Ryan more or less would be along for the ride.

Just lol @ this 'perfect offense' narrative. Was it perfect in 2016? No. We just had a competent play caller. Every single qb needs a running game and a defense. Why do you think we keep blowing games late? No way to kill the clock, no way to stop the other team. That is football 101 and no qb putting on a falcons uniform will change that.

 

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58 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Just lol @ this 'perfect offense' narrative. Was it perfect in 2016? No. We just had a competent play caller. Every single qb needs a running game and a defense. Why do you think we keep blowing games late? No way to kill the clock, no way to stop the other team. That is football 101 and no qb putting on a falcons uniform will change that.

 

"LOL" isn't a rebuttal.

Even when we had Shanny, it was Shanny who was blamed for the loss. You have unfalsafiable hypothesis. What is the LIKELINESS of Ryan having  a talented team overall as his MVP year again by the time his current contract is over?

I don't want to hear about possibility. Sure it's possible. I want you to tell me the odds. Will Ryan be as good as he was as he gets older? Will the team be good enough and improve fast enough? Remember to be a SB winning TEAM, all the pieces need to be in place at THE SAME TIME.

Right now Ryan is playing mediocre. So not are you guys hoping that the other positions will improve, but that Ryan will improve back to his old form, and all of that has to occur SIMULTANEOUSLY within the next couple of years. He has a 2 year window MAX. After this contract with Ryan is over, you can bet the Falcons are not going to resign him unless Ryan seriously improves or he asks for a lot less money.

You guys sound like MAGA right now denying we will get a new president. That is always the excuse. It's always someone else's fault ever since he been here. You are making my case for me.

So in order for Ryan to win a SB we need:

New GM

New HC

NEW OC

NEW DC

NEW defensive players

NEW offensive players

maybe we can add special teams?

Does the team need new scouting department also?

And they all have to be good enough and IMPROVE FAST enough, within the next couple of years just so you can tell me "You were wrong".

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

 

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