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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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24 minutes ago, Rings said:

The difference is Rudolph was actively losing them games, Ben is not.  The fact that you use wins and losses as your argument for him is very telling.  Say it with me.

Wins.
Aren’t.
A.
QB.
Stat.
 

You are letting records skew your vision.  Go watch them play.  Put on the tape.  They did not play better than Ryan.  They also play in QB friendly schemes and Ryan does not, no one is being schemed open.  Ryan has a shorter YPA than Brees because of check downs, not because of designed shorter throws.  Ben had the shortest time to throw and when he was forced to hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds he fell off a cliff going from a 101.4 passer rating to a 72.2, the largest drop off amongst starting QBs.  Brees also has the #1 rushing DVOA and the #2 defensive DVOA backing him up, which helps.

Time to Throw
1. Ben
7. Brees
19. Ryan

Deep Passing Adj Completion %
(Brees had roughly 1/3 the attempts as Ryan and Brees)
Ryan: 47.4%
Brees: 46.2%
Ben: 32.9%

Passing for First Downs
2. Atlanta
18. Pittsburgh
23. New Orleans

PFF Grades
11. Ryan
21. Brees
25. Ben

Defensive Takeaways per Game
2. Pittsburgh
3. New Orleans
19. Atlanta

Average Starting Field Position
1. New Orleans
6. Pittsburgh
17. Atlanta

Yards per Drive
13. Atlanta
16. New Orleans
25. Pittsburgh

Did Ryan have a great year?  No.  But he was put in worse situations, particularly in the second half of games, than the other two.  But if you think he played worse than Ben, you haven’t watched them play, you are completely ignoring coaching differences and situational football and focusing on box score stats and team records too much.  Not to mention if you put Taysom Hill or Mason Rudolph on this team with Dirk calling plays and they get blown out every game.  Coaching matters.  New Orleans nor Pitt would ever call 21 pass plays and 4 run plays in the second half when up 17-0 against Tampa.


 

Boy, you really had to dig deep to build such a flimsy case.

Ryan = Senyor 18-30 Squared

...and if you think Ryan wasn’t actively losing games for the Falcons the last three years, well...what color is the sky in your world.

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6 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Boy, you really had to dig deep to build such a flimsy case.

Ryan = Senyor 18-30 Squared

...and if you think Ryan wasn’t actively losing games for the Falcons the last three years, well...what color is the sky in your world.

You are living in your own delusional world with your Ryan hate agenda. Get a life.

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34 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Boy, you really had to dig deep to build such a flimsy case.

Ryan = Senyor 18-30 Squared

...and if you think Ryan wasn’t actively losing games for the Falcons the last three years, well...what color is the sky in your world.

“Boy?”  Please dude, save the name calling, save the cute quotes and anecdotes.  We are allowed to disagree without trying to degrade each other.  I would challenge that you probably watched a lot of falcons games, very few if any Saints and Steelers games unless they played ATL or were prime time games, and are relying on Sport Centers’ takes and box scores stats and team success.

I watch a ton of football, I have three TVs going every Sunday, Falcons on the main screen, Browns on right TV and either NFC South or AFC North Rivals for those two teams.  I’ve watched a lot of both Steelers and Saints games this year because of that.  I also don’t just follow Falcons podcasts, radio, sites, Twitter account.  I follow unbiased sources, NFL podcasts as a whole, follow NFL people on Twitter and dive deep into situational stats to paint a better holistic picture than only focusing on what happens in our games to see if those stats line up with the eye test.

That said, I’m not saying I know more than you or that my opinion is worth more, but I would challenge I have watched more of those two teams this year and equal amounts of Falcons play and because of that I think I have a more balanced opinion and evaluation.  In my opinion Ryan has been asked to do more in our offense and has been put in worse situations during the game than Ben or Brees and when those two were asked to do similar things struggled much more than Ryan.  Ryan has to play like a top 5-10 QB for us to win games, if he plays like a middle of the pact or bad we lose.  Ben and Brees could have off games, play bad, or not play at all, and that team still wins.  Just look at the record over the last two years of when Brees or Ben were out.  Winning record combined, and I highly doubt you think Rudolph or Hill are better than Ryan, even as much as you dislike him.
 

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

You are letting records skew your vision.  Go watch them play.  Put on the tape.  They did not play better than Ryan.  They also play in QB friendly schemes and Ryan does not, 

What did you just type? 

This is beyond ridiculous, Ryan threw the ball 626 times this year, and was in 600's since 2018. Not a single QB threw the ball more the last 3 years. Brady, and Mahomes plays in a similar scheme fyi. 

Wins and Losses are attached to QBs, whether this is fair or not. This is why Brady is considered the concensus greatest QB to ever play. 

I am not saying Ryan isn't a really good player, but he isn't above being replaced. Heck the saints have been planning to replace brees for a long time and he is way better than Ryan, they just haven't gotten in position to snag the right player. 

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3 minutes ago, QBat3 said:

What did you just type? 

This is beyond ridiculous, Ryan threw the ball 626 times this year, and was in 600's since 2018. Not a single QB threw the ball more the last 3 years. Brady, and Mahomes plays in a similar scheme fyi. 

Wins and Losses are attached to QBs, whether this is fair or not. This is why Brady is considered the concensus greatest QB to ever play. 

I am not saying Ryan isn't a really good player, but he isn't above being replaced. Heck the saints have been planning to replace brees for a long time and he is way better than Ryan, they just haven't gotten in position to snag the right player. 

How does quantity of throws dictate being in a QB friendly scheme?  LOL.  I’m ridiculous...

And Brees “was” better than Ryan, he wasn’t this year.  This isn’t a “me” take.  Most people who cover the NFL would agree with that as well.

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

no one is being schemed open.  Ryan has a shorter YPA than Brees because of check downs, not because of designed shorter throws.  

You guys act like this is a conspiracy by DK and the Deep state to make Ryan hover .2 yards below his career YPA average. Ryan is playing as well as he has always played, he may not be putting up career numbers but he is not drastically below his career averages in yards, tds, or YPA. Granted Koetty sucks for other reasons, but being a pass friendly OC is not one of them. 

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32 minutes ago, QBat3 said:

You guys act like this is a conspiracy by DK and the Deep state to make Ryan hover .2 yards below his career YPA average. Ryan is playing as well as he has always played, he may not be putting up career numbers but he is not drastically below his career averages in yards, tds, or YPA. Granted Koetty sucks for other reasons, but being a pass friendly OC is not one of them. 

Again...quantity does not equal quality. 

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4 minutes ago, Rings said:

Again...quantity does not equal quality.  Try to keep up.

Did his quality significantly dip? No? Then your argument holds no water. If anything it's on the QB to produce the YPA and TDs and not so much the OC. In his scheme Kutty should get you the YPA considering his affinity to throw downfield. Jameis averaged 7.7 YPA in 2015, and only 6.7 YPA with Payton this year. Players gotta execute. 

I would say we need a balanced OC to help ryan out, with the run game. Long term we gotta get a QB in here especially because he is at the age where QBs start to get hurt, and or they play can dip. 

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On 1/4/2021 at 8:56 AM, mqg96 said:

Okay, how old will Matt Ryan be going into next season? How old will Julio Jones be heading into next season? You don't build around a 36 year old QB and a 32 year old receiver. I'm sorry,

 

and there's a big difference between the 3 years in a row we missed the postseason from 2013-2015 compared to the 3 years in a row we missed the postseason from 2018-2020. We made a significant drop from 2012 to 2013, but our records from 2013-2015 in spite the change from Mike Smith to Dan Quinn, 4-12, 6-10, 8-8, we kept improving year after year until our 11-5 Super Bowl season in 2016.

 

From 2018-2020, 7-9, 7-9, 4-12, and we were 10-6 in 2017 and 3rd in the NFC South (barely made the playoffs as a #6 seed), we have gotten worse and worse each year since the Super Bowl collapse.

 

Matt Ryan is aging, he's no longer clutch like he was earlier in his career. Okay, sure, in the Bucs game we scored 27 and the defense gave up 44, but guess what? Our defense played well against the Chiefs, Chargers, Saints (the 2nd time), what did our offense do with Matt Ryan as the QB?

 

We lost our final 6 games to end this disastrous 4-12 season, and remember, our strong 6-2 finish in 2019 was supposed to carry into 2020, but did it? I don't think so. Will losing all these close games in 2020 carry into 2021? Hmmmm. Yeah, we better draft a QB top 4 and make the harsh changes that will put the pressure on Matt Ryan and change the culture of this franchise. 

what did the offense do? they went down the field twice and Powell fumbled one possession and the 2nd one they drove it again and scored a TD to take the lead how is that not a GWD the defense choked again and let them score right after. Then Matt took them down the field again and had a chance to tie and go to OT but koo missed cuz of the wind once again how is that not a GED (Game Extending Drive).

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On 1/4/2021 at 8:57 AM, TheDirtyWordII said:

Winning Percentage 2018-2020

Matt Ryan - 37.5%
Sam Darnold - 35.1%

Now, you can be a Ryan fan and if that’s your gig, so be it.  But let’s understand that our grass over here has been brown for quite some time.

imaging putting all the weight on one person

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20 minutes ago, QBat3 said:

Did his quality significantly dip? No? Then your argument holds no water. If anything it's on the QB to produce the YPA and TDs and not so much the OC. In his scheme Kutty should get you the YPA considering his affinity to throw downfield. Jameis averaged 7.7 YPA in 2015, and only 6.7 YPA with Payton this year. Players gotta execute. 

I would say we need a balanced OC to help ryan out, with the run game. Long term we gotta get a QB in here especially because he is at the age where QBs start to get hurt, and or they play can dip. 

My last post was a bit condescending, I apologize.  Was pissed off at something out and it wasn’t targeted at you.  I fixed it.

Dirk doesn’t scheme WRs open, again this is widely known.  He also doesn’t give his line much help.  If receivers aren’t open and line isn’t protecting on their own, and we call no RB screens or other things to negate a pass rush, that is on the OC.  Which is why I think if we get a creative play caller, many peoples tune on Ryan will change next year.

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53 minutes ago, QBat3 said:

What did you just type? 

This is beyond ridiculous, Ryan threw the ball 626 times this year, and was in 600's since 2018. Not a single QB threw the ball more the last 3 years. Brady, and Mahomes plays in a similar scheme fyi. 

Wins and Losses are attached to QBs, whether this is fair or not. This is why Brady is considered the concensus greatest QB to ever play. 

I am not saying Ryan isn't a really good player, but he isn't above being replaced. Heck the saints have been planning to replace brees for a long time and he is way better than Ryan, they just haven't gotten in position to snag the right player. 

Imagine thinking throwing the ball that much actually helps you as a QB. It would have been a lot more 'friendly' to Ryan if Koetter ran the ball and let him use playaction instead of dropping him back every play with nowhere to throw the ball. Arm fatigue is also a thing when you're throwing the ball 40 times a game.

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

The difference is Rudolph was actively losing them games, Ben is not.  The fact that you use wins and losses as your argument for him is very telling.  Say it with me.

Wins.
Aren’t.
A.
QB.
Stat.
 

You are letting records skew your vision.  Go watch them play.  Put on the tape.  They did not play better than Ryan.  They also play in QB friendly schemes and Ryan does not, no one is being schemed open.  Ryan has a shorter YPA than Brees because of check downs, not because of designed shorter throws.  Ben had the shortest time to throw and when he was forced to hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds he fell off a cliff going from a 101.4 passer rating to a 72.2, the largest drop off amongst starting QBs.  Brees also has the #1 rushing DVOA and the #2 defensive DVOA backing him up, which helps.

Time to Throw
1. Ben
7. Brees
19. Ryan

Deep Passing Adj Completion %
(Brees had roughly 1/3 the attempts as Ryan and Brees)
Ryan: 47.4%
Brees: 46.2%
Ben: 32.9%

Passing for First Downs
2. Atlanta
18. Pittsburgh
23. New Orleans

PFF Grades
11. Ryan
21. Brees
25. Ben

Defensive Takeaways per Game
2. Pittsburgh
3. New Orleans
19. Atlanta

Average Starting Field Position
1. New Orleans
6. Pittsburgh
17. Atlanta

Yards per Drive
13. Atlanta
16. New Orleans
25. Pittsburgh

Did Ryan have a great year?  No.  But he was put in worse situations, particularly in the second half of games, than the other two.  But if you think he played worse than Ben, you haven’t watched them play, you are completely ignoring coaching differences and situational football and focusing on box score stats and team records too much.  Not to mention if you put Taysom Hill or Mason Rudolph on this team with Dirk calling plays and they get blown out every game.  Coaching matters.  New Orleans nor Pitt would ever call 21 pass plays and 4 run plays in the second half when up 17-0 against Tampa.


 

You didn’t have to kill the guy.

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1 minute ago, Rings said:

My last post was a bit condescending, I apologize.  Was pissed off at something out and it wasn’t targeted at you.  I fixed it.

Dirk doesn’t scheme WRs open, again this is widely known.  He also doesn’t give his line much help.  If receivers aren’t open and line isn’t protecting on their own, and we call no RB screens or other things to negate a pass rush, that is on the OC.  Which is why I think if we get a creative play caller, many peoples tune on Ryan will change next year.

No one is calling for Ryan to be replaced based on his play or at least not on his play alone. Ryan did have a good season. It's just that he is 36 and we aren't winning it all with him at this point. If anything he is on the back end of his career and his play will dip soon. I disagree that Koetty doesn't scheme anyone open, he is average. There are plenty of plays where Julio and Ridley were open this year and the ball was dropped or thrown too late or too high. You are right though we pass entirely too much and he didn't get the OL much help. When he did change up his scheme and went to max protect, people were complaining that we ran a play with 2wrs. I think we can do better than Koetty but it's crazy to expect Shanny's 2016 offense next year. At this point we are chasing shadows and we should be thinking about the future of the falcon long term. 

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10 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

Imagine thinking throwing the ball that much actually helps you as a QB. It would have been a lot more 'friendly' to Ryan if Koetter ran the ball and let him use playaction instead of dropping him back every play with nowhere to throw the ball. Arm fatigue is also a thing when you're throwing the ball 40 times a game.

While those are valid points for a better overall offense, technically they should lead to some great QB stats. For example Big Ben threw 675 times in 2018 and had an absurd 5200 yards and 34 tds.  In 08 Brees threw 635 times for 5037 yards and 34 Tds. Those are QB friendly offenses, just not suitable for a winning formula. 

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18 minutes ago, QBat3 said:

While those are valid points for a better overall offense, technically they should lead to some great QB stats. For example Big Ben threw 675 times in 2018 and had an absurd 5200 yards and 34 tds.  In 08 Brees threw 635 times for 5037 yards and 34 Tds. Those are QB friendly offenses, just not suitable for a winning formula. 

Not necessarily. If you don't have even the threat of a running game the other team can sell out for the pass, leading to more of those throws being incompletes (or worse). Koetter's propensity for throwing it deep also leads to more incompletions than any offense Brees has ever been in. Add in the fact that these incompletes on 1st or 2nd down lead to Ryan being forced to throw the ball into tighter windows further down the field on 3rd down to keep the drive going, and it's a jacob's ladder effect of poor results. 

You're right in correcting me that it's not necessarily the volume of throws (though that is indicative of larger issues), but you have to see how those throws came about to see why Ryan's offense has been anything but QB friendly the last few years. 

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58 minutes ago, QBat3 said:

No one is calling for Ryan to be replaced based on his play or at least not on his play alone. Ryan did have a good season. It's just that he is 36 and we aren't winning it all with him at this point. If anything he is on the back end of his career and his play will dip soon. I disagree that Koetty doesn't scheme anyone open, he is average. There are plenty of plays where Julio and Ridley were open this year and the ball was dropped or thrown too late or too high. You are right though we pass entirely too much and he didn't get the OL much help. When he did change up his scheme and went to max protect, people were complaining that we ran a play with 2wrs. I think we can do better than Koetty but it's crazy to expect Shanny's 2016 offense next year. At this point we are chasing shadows and we should be thinking about the future of the falcon long term. 

The sad part is, even if we bring in his replacement in April, and I hope we can.  That kid won't win anytime soon either.  And would have to play on a team full of holes should he start day one.  I cannot argue against a QB this year if he fits what we want to do moving forward.  And frankly we won't know anything until we get our new regime in the door.  

Ryan allows us to win.  And make no mistake, the team wishes to win.  However, the door has been opened for change.  

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