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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t. 2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t. 3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage s

I think our chance of winning one in the next three years is higher with Ryan than a QB we could take this year.  After that you take a QB that gives you a better chance the following five years than

With a better OC and a better defense, why couldn't we??

6 hours ago, vanhino said:

Ryan being able to help the Falcons win a Super Bowl? He had the 4th highest passer rating in Super Bowl history and the highest passer rating of any losing QB in Super Bowl history! The man played his tail off in that game and the Falcons should have won! What more could he have done?

 

Presently, Dirk Koetter is one of the worst (if not THE worst) OCs in the NFL! Absolutely no creativity on offense and they are running the wrong offense for Ryan's skill set. Instead of Air Coryell, the Falcons need to be running the WCO. With a capable OC (like Shanahan was), Ryan would look much better.

 

And let's talk about the defense, shall we? The defense was ranked 25th the year that the Falcons went to the Super Bowl! How many teams with defenses ranked that low have ever reached the Super Bowl? 

 

The defense this year has been atrocious! It has shown signs of being better ever since Quinn was fired, but it definitely needs improvement. Hopefully next year, things will be pointing upward.

What does Ryan's play in the 2017 SB have to do with how he will play in 2021 and beyond?

Edited by Intellectually Honest
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3 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

What does Ryan's play in the 2017 SB have to do with how he will play in 2021 and beyond?

My point is that Ryan has played at an MVP level in the past and continues to play extremely well overall in spite of terrible coaching. Do you think that Koetter has done a good job coaching the offense? I think that he has been awful! The defense this year has been atrocious overall. None of this is Ryan's fault and he is not the problem of this team.

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On 1/5/2021 at 9:51 PM, vanhino said:

My point is that Ryan has played at an MVP level in the past and continues to play extremely well overall in spite of terrible coaching. Do you think that Koetter has done a good job coaching the offense? I think that he has been awful! The defense this year has been atrocious overall. None of this is Ryan's fault and he is not the problem of this team.

So in other words you just assume he still can play like that. Any evidence of that in 2020?

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4 hours ago, BLM said:

Packers drafted a qb with rodgers at helm.  They are a more successful organization than us.  

Yeah, but they screwed up for the wrong reason. They don't want to pay a QB who IS still playing at an elite level, while the Falcons want to play a mediocre QB who WAS elite 3 years ago as if he still is.

Rodgers doesn't have this great supporting cast that Falcon fans constantly whine that Ryan needs to get to that level. Rodgers also has been doing it for most of his career, while Ryan you could say had 2 elite years. The rest he has been up and down between mediocre and good. And now he is falling on the wrong side of mediocre and there is no evidence he will go back to 2017 form.

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The problem is saying that if the Falcons draft Wilson or Fields they have their QB for 10-15 years. Look at all the teams that said that and they are already gone well before the 10-15 years. No one says we're going to draft a QB in Rd 1 and he'll be gone after 4 years. In 3-4 years the Falcons will have to rebuild anyways so they should trade back and pick up some picks and use one of them to get a running back, DL, OL, etc. This team has too many holes that need filing.

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9 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

So in other words you just assume he still can play like that. Any evidence of that in 2020?

Ryan outplayed Mahomes (who is considered the gold standard of NFL quarterbacking by many people) 2 weeks ago:

 

Matt Ryan quarterback rating: 81.4

Patrick Mahomes quarterback rating: 67.5

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6 hours ago, Rings said:

I’ll give you Rodgers and Brady, but But have you watched Brees or Big Ben play this year at all?  They aren’t the reason they are winning games, the #1 & #2 ranked defenses are.  Rivers is debatable.

🤣 

Matt Ryan isn’t the reason we’re winning games either.  Because we’re only winning 37.5% of them over the last 3 years.

Brees and Big Ben weren’t their best selves this year, but they were still better than Ryan.

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26 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

🤣

Matt Ryan isn’t the reason we’re winning games either.  Because we’re only winning 37.5% of them over the last 3 years.

Brees and Big Ben weren’t their best selves this year, but they were still better than Ryan.

No, they weren’t.  Careers?  Yes.  This year?  Absolutely not.  But we will just have to disagree on that.  

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

No, they weren’t.  Careers?  Yes.  This year?  Absolutely not.  But we will just have to disagree on that.  

PIT gave up fewer yards last year than this year.  The difference between last years PIT team that went 8-8 and the one that went 12-4 is they got BB back.  The 4 win differential was equal to Ryan’s 16 game output.

The only stat that Ryan exceeds Brees in was YPG which was a function of the amount of attempts Ryan had.  Otherwise, in a decline year for Brees, YPA/Comp %/TD production/turnover ratio...he was superior.

But keep livin’ the dream over there.

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On 1/4/2021 at 12:43 AM, Rings said:

1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t.

2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t.

3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage scale and save a ton of money for five years and build around him...we are still paying Ryan so that isn’t a thing, and we have no money to surround that person with talent.

4) The flawed logic of “we won’t be drafting this high in a long time we we have to take our QB of the future”. This is wrong for two reasons.  QBs taken in the top five have been less successful then the rest of the fist round, and that includes trade ups so it isn’t always bad teams,  second, and most importantly, if we are going to be drafting later the next few years, that means we are winning...with Matt Ryan...so we don’t need a QB right now.

5) Our offense will look night and day better once DK is gone.  He made everyone on offense, including Ryan, look worse than they are.

6) We gave up 44 points today, had a fluke INT and they took a knee on our side of the field, and some think QB is the problem.

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about.

OK, let's tackle each of your points.

Numbers 1 and 2 has been disproven by the GB Packers.  Drafting a talented QB, when he is the best player available has turned out well for them.  I don't see a reason why it should not turn out well for us.

3.  We need a back-up for Ryan.  Schaub costed us a few million every year, so drafting a cheap one is a savings.  Benkert (sp) is nothing special and does not appear to be the heir to Ryan's throne.  

4.  I have not seen that statistic.  Keep in mind that teams that draft a QB after the top 10, usually have a reasonably good team that does not require the rookie to step in and lead the offense.  So, drafting a QB later and allowing for him to develop gives said QB a leg up on the guys that are thrown in to the fire.  

This argument does not apply to the Falcons because regardless of who we take, that guy ain't starting for at least a year.

5.   We have no idea what our offense will look like when DK is gone.  He may have a lousy scheme, but switching to a new guy has historically been associated with a poor first season.  

6.  No one thinks that our failures are on Ryan.  The overwhelming majority of people that support the idea of drafting a QB in the first round believe that Ryan is getting up in age and will likely start to decline.  Another reason for the interest in QB prospects is because this draft is weak at pass rushers and strong with QB's.

Jets fans that support Sam Darnold see that he is very young and has not had a decent supporting cast.  People that are open to drafting Ryan's replacement see an aging QB that has a lot of talent around him.  

A rebuild is needed right now.  If you can make the case that other positions are the BPA, then I am with you.  However, right now, it appears that the BPA may very well be a QB.  It would be a major mistake to pass up on the opportunity.  

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16 hours ago, BLM said:

Packers drafted a qb with rodgers at helm.  They are a more successful organization than us.  

The GB reference is interesting because they did it twice with 2 QB in a row.

The difference is in both cases, they were already winning, but that aside... it created a tough scenario for them because each time the starter rose up and defended their position.

Rodgers only took over for Favre after a very messy breakup, after Favre continued to show mastery at the position and that tore the fanbase in different directions.  Favre went on to the NFC Championship game where a series of AP fumbles and the Saints bountygate tactics kept him out the Super Bowl.  Rodgers now has led the team to the top seed going into the playoffs and nobody is seeing the Love kid taking over very soon at all.

So, what if the Falcons draft a QB at 4 and Ryan syncs up with an offensive genius HC and OC and runs off a monster season?  Or two.  And now his contract is more salary cap friendly, what do you do?  Some might say having 2 great QBs is a good position to be in and it may be right, but there is only one ball ... and eventually your defense is going to still have to defend any lead the QB gives them.

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2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

PIT gave up fewer yards this year than last.  The difference between last years PIT team that went 8-8 and the one that went 12-4 is they got BB back.  The 4 win differential was equal to Ryan’s 16 game output.

The only stat that Ryan exceeds Brees in was YPG which was a function of the amount of attempts Ryan had.  Otherwise, in a decline year for Brees, YPA/Comp %/TD production/turnover ratio...he was superior.

But keep livin’ the dream over there.

The difference is Rudolph was actively losing them games, Ben is not.  The fact that you use wins and losses as your argument for him is very telling.  Say it with me.

Wins.
Aren’t.
A.
QB.
Stat.
 

You are letting records skew your vision.  Go watch them play.  Put on the tape.  They did not play better than Ryan.  They also play in QB friendly schemes and Ryan does not, no one is being schemed open.  Ryan has a shorter YPA than Brees because of check downs, not because of designed shorter throws.  Ben had the shortest time to throw and when he was forced to hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds he fell off a cliff going from a 101.4 passer rating to a 72.2, the largest drop off amongst starting QBs.  Brees also has the #1 rushing DVOA and the #2 defensive DVOA backing him up, which helps.

Time to Throw
1. Ben
7. Brees
19. Ryan

Deep Passing Adj Completion %
(Brees had roughly 1/3 the attempts as Ryan and Brees)
Ryan: 47.4%
Brees: 46.2%
Ben: 32.9%

Passing for First Downs
2. Atlanta
18. Pittsburgh
23. New Orleans

PFF Grades
11. Ryan
21. Brees
25. Ben

Defensive Takeaways per Game
2. Pittsburgh
3. New Orleans
19. Atlanta

Average Starting Field Position
1. New Orleans
6. Pittsburgh
17. Atlanta

Yards per Drive
13. Atlanta
16. New Orleans
25. Pittsburgh

Did Ryan have a great year?  No.  But he was put in worse situations, particularly in the second half of games, than the other two.  But if you think he played worse than Ben, you haven’t watched them play, you are completely ignoring coaching differences and situational football and focusing on box score stats and team records too much.  Not to mention if you put Taysom Hill or Mason Rudolph on this team with Dirk calling plays and they get blown out every game.  Coaching matters.  New Orleans nor Pitt would ever call 21 pass plays and 4 run plays in the second half when up 17-0 against Tampa.


 

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1 hour ago, etherdome said:

OK, let's tackle each of your points.

Numbers 1 and 2 has been disproven by the GB Packers.  Drafting a talented QB, when he is the best player available has turned out well for them.  I don't see a reason why it should not turn out well for us.

3.  We need a back-up for Ryan.  Schaub costed us a few million every year, so drafting a cheap one is a savings.  Benkert (sp) is nothing special and does not appear to be the heir to Ryan's throne.  

4.  I have not seen that statistic.  Keep in mind that teams that draft a QB after the top 10, usually have a reasonably good team that does not require the rookie to step in and lead the offense.  So, drafting a QB later and allowing for him to develop gives said QB a leg up on the guys that are thrown in to the fire.  

This argument does not apply to the Falcons because regardless of who we take, that guy ain't starting for at least a year.

5.   We have no idea what our offense will look like when DK is gone.  He may have a lousy scheme, but switching to a new guy has historically been associated with a poor first season.  

6.  No one thinks that our failures are on Ryan.  The overwhelming majority of people that support the idea of drafting a QB in the first round believe that Ryan is getting up in age and will likely start to decline.  Another reason for the interest in QB prospects is because this draft is weak at pass rushers and strong with QB's.

Jets fans that support Sam Darnold see that he is very young and has not had a decent supporting cast.  People that are open to drafting Ryan's replacement see an aging QB that has a lot of talent around him.  

A rebuild is needed right now.  If you can make the case that other positions are the BPA, then I am with you.  However, right now, it appears that the BPA may very well be a QB.  It would be a major mistake to pass up on the opportunity.  

Green Bay didn’t take Love at four so people that keep making this argument miss the point.  I’m not against them taking a QB in the first round, but not at four.  Trade back to middle of the first?  Sure.  Not top 10 though.  Although that should only happen if they are 100% set on moving on from Ryan after next year so you can take advantage of the rookie QB contract.

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19 hours ago, irrevelantfalconsfan said:

Well let's say some miracle happens and Trevor is on the board.

 

Then we'd be stupid NOT to take him.

If he is there at 4 he would have had to murder someone and ATL wouldn’t take him.  Pot gas mask wouldn’t even let him drop to four lol.

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