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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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19 hours ago, Rings said:

1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t.

2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t.

3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage scale and save a ton of money for five years and build around him...we are still paying Ryan so that isn’t a thing, and we have no money to surround that person with talent.

4) The flawed logic of “we won’t be drafting this high in a long time we we have to take our QB of the future”. This is wrong for two reasons.  QBs taken in the top five have been less successful then the rest of the fist round, and that includes trade ups so it isn’t always bad teams,  second, and most importantly, if we are going to be drafting later the next few years, that means we are winning...with Matt Ryan...so we don’t need a QB right now.

5) Our offense will look night and day better once DK is gone.  He made everyone on offense, including Ryan, look worse than they are.

6) We gave up 44 points today, had a fluke INT and they took a knee on our side of the field, and some think QB is the problem.

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about.

have you said who you wanted the team to draft with the 4th overall pick? If not who are you looking at drafting at that spot?

 

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Just now, AllStarHandyMan said:

have you said who you wanted the team to draft with the 4th overall pick? If not who are you looking at drafting at that spot?

 

I would prefer to trade out.  Honestly not thrilled with anyone yet (I haven’t done much tape on draft prospects yet), but from the top few slotted that I’ve seen, I’d rather stockpile picks.  We need depth and have holes on defense, we have no money in FA.  If we are going to compete next year we need more talent and the only way to do that cheaply is in the draft.  I’d love it if they traded down more than once even, although that’s a pipe dream.  

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1 minute ago, Rings said:

I would prefer to trade out.  Honestly not thrilled with anyone yet (I haven’t done much tape on draft prospects yet), but from the top few slotted that I’ve seen, I’d rather stockpile picks.  We need depth and have holes on defense, we have no money in FA.  If we are going to compete next year we need more talent and the only way to do that cheaply is in the draft.  I’d love it if they traded down more than once even, although that’s a pipe dream.  

ok you are on the boat with me.

yet im ok with drafting a QB right here at #4 IF! we cant trade down. would you be ok with taking the best player available here even if its a QB if you can trade down? 

 

my dream would be a trade down with WAS and getting that extra 2 and the two 3rds they have too. and more if we can... 

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2 minutes ago, AllStarHandyMan said:

ok you are on the boat with me.

yet im ok with drafting a QB right here at #4 IF! we cant trade down. would you be ok with taking the best player available here even if its a QB if you can trade down? 

 

my dream would be a trade down with WAS and getting that extra 2 and the two 3rds they have too. and more if we can... 

I personally don’t like the concept because you aren’t going to play him year one or two.  The best part of having a QB on a rookie contract is that they make so little, and since it’s the highest paid position normally, you get the biggest savings...and you are throwing that away for at least the next two years until Ryan’s dead cap money wouldn’t be stupid high.  Fourth pick overall will have a cap hit of about 4mil, compare that to QB contracts right now that are easily in the range of 30mil per year.  So by having the QB on that deal for the first four years, you could add 26mil worth of talent around them.  We basically would be cutting that benefit in half.  I know Ryan won’t be here forever, but I’d rather wait until he’s going to be out the next year at least to make that selection.  That’s just my preference though.

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19 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

To me it comes down to the evaluations.  If the new regime is in agreement that Fields or Wilson is a franchise QB, you draft him.  I mentioned it in another thread but it’s similar to the Saints heading into 2017.  They were picking 11th and tried to move up for Mahomes. Imagine if they were successful or drafted D. Watson over Lattimore.  Brees was still a Pro Bowl QB but their outlook would be much, much better right now.

If there is no agreement on a QB, trade out and stack top 100 picks.  This isn’t the year to draft a non-QB at #4

I disagree.  Lattimore elevated their defense from average to dominant.  

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I think some people are not being realistic. Stop judging Matt Ryan by 2010 metrics or what you think a good QB looks like. In today's game, Matt Ryan isn't a top 5 QB. He isn't a top 10 QB. 

Go to ESPN and look at the QB ratings or passers ratings and tell me where he ranks for 2020. He is middle of the pack at best. That is part of the reason why we have 4 wins. A 13 year vet making his type of money HAS to be more consistent and give us an advantage.  12 4k yard passers, Ryan has the lowest QBR of them all. I know the difference is small, but the NFL is a game of inches. A clutch moment here or there, a great read and throw is what makes the difference. The difference between the 8th and 14th place guy may not be statistically big, but 14 teams don't make the playoffs. A lot of guys you wouldn't think about out played Matt Ryan this year. 

Strike while the QB position is rich in the draft and you have the pick and assets to land a quality guy for your future. 

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3 minutes ago, isproab said:

I think some people are not being realistic. Stop judging Matt Ryan by 2010 metrics or what you think a good QB looks like. In today's game, Matt Ryan isn't a top 5 QB. He isn't a top 10 QB. 

Go to ESPN and look at the QB ratings or passers ratings and tell me where he ranks for 2020. He is middle of the pack at best. That is part of the reason why we have 4 wins. A 13 year vet making his type of money HAS to be more consistent and give us an advantage.  12 4k yard passers, Ryan has the lowest QBR of them all. I know the difference is small, but the NFL is a game of inches. A clutch moment here or there, a great read and throw is what makes the difference. The difference between the 8th and 14th place guy may not be statistically big, but 14 teams don't make the playoffs. A lot of guys you wouldn't think about out played Matt Ryan this year. 

Strike while the QB position is rich in the draft and you have the pick and assets to land a quality guy for your future. 

Agreed, lets secure I future now...then aid in our problems of today 

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18 hours ago, Em_Jae20 said:

You draft the best player available to you at your spot in the draft.  I don't understand how passing on a Justin Fields or Zach Wilson just because you have an MVP level QB helps the team get markedly better for the future.  No position in football is more valuable than the QB and you have a legitimate shot to have 2 great ones on your team at one time.  I mean, when was the last time we had a backup to Matt that could legitimately win us multiple games?  The better teams in the league consistently draft the best player available, look at Baltimore.  Not exactly the same situation, but they still had a Super Bowl winning QB and drafted his replacement in the first round.

Flacco isn't really a good comparison as he has never been what you would consider to be a franchise QB.  Honestly there are a lot of parallels between he and Eli Manning.  The point is that Flacco was essentially a game manager who was in steep decline when the Ravens drafted his replacement.  I think most are in agreement that Ryan can still perform at a high level if supported by a running game.  

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6 minutes ago, autigerfan said:

Flacco isn't really a good comparison as he has never been what you would consider to be a franchise QB.  Honestly there are a lot of parallels between he and Eli Manning.  The point is that Flacco was essentially a game manager who was in steep decline when the Ravens drafted his replacement.  I think most are in agreement that Ryan can still perform at a high level if supported by a running game.  

My thoughts still remain that you draft the best play available to you in most situations.  And if that player is a QB, which could very well be our case this year, you pull the trigger and take that QB.  We can take a QB at 4 and still put a team and offense in place around Matt and compete next season

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39 minutes ago, isproab said:

I think some people are not being realistic. Stop judging Matt Ryan by 2010 metrics or what you think a good QB looks like. In today's game, Matt Ryan isn't a top 5 QB. He isn't a top 10 QB. 

Go to ESPN and look at the QB ratings or passers ratings and tell me where he ranks for 2020. He is middle of the pack at best. That is part of the reason why we have 4 wins. A 13 year vet making his type of money HAS to be more consistent and give us an advantage.  12 4k yard passers, Ryan has the lowest QBR of them all. I know the difference is small, but the NFL is a game of inches. A clutch moment here or there, a great read and throw is what makes the difference. The difference between the 8th and 14th place guy may not be statistically big, but 14 teams don't make the playoffs. A lot of guys you wouldn't think about out played Matt Ryan this year. 

Strike while the QB position is rich in the draft and you have the pick and assets to land a quality guy for your future. 

“Stop judging Matt Ryan by 2010 metrics...”

Then references QBR...literally a metric that was invented in 2010.

If you judge how good a QB is on QBR or quarterback rating, you’re stuck in 2010.

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57 minutes ago, Rings said:

I personally don’t like the concept because you aren’t going to play him year one or two.  The best part of having a QB on a rookie contract is that they make so little, and since it’s the highest paid position normally, you get the biggest savings...and you are throwing that away for at least the next two years until Ryan’s dead cap money wouldn’t be stupid high.  Fourth pick overall will have a cap hit of about 4mil, compare that to QB contracts right now that are easily in the range of 30mil per year.  So by having the QB on that deal for the first four years, you could add 26mil worth of talent around them.  We basically would be cutting that benefit in half.  I know Ryan won’t be here forever, but I’d rather wait until he’s going to be out the next year at least to make that selection.  That’s just my preference though.

Yea I understand. I agree I want to build for the future and also go all in. I just want the best we can get. Like more picks helps us alot too. Yet also a 5th year option with us cutting or trading ryan after the 202q season could also help too. We have alot of ways to go that could work thats what makes me excited 

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

I brought up Donald and that the fans appreciate him and he isn’t near as good as Ryan.  I never brought up wins or losses as it’s a team stat.  Scoring points is also a team stat.  I don’t think Ryan is void of blame or doesn’t have his faults.  But he isn’t the one holding this offense, or team back.

He certainly isn’t propelling it forward...for $30M/year, I’d expect a better bull case for Ryan than ‘wins and points are a team stat’...

So what exactly is your beloved Ryan responsible for given his financial premium?

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42 minutes ago, Rings said:

“Stop judging Matt Ryan by 2010 metrics...”

Then references QBR...literally a metric that was invented in 2010.

If you judge how good a QB is on QBR or quarterback rating, you’re stuck in 2010.

My point is people look at what a good QB looked like then and are still using that. Those QBR numbers combine the performance numbers and you get a rating ever year. The formula is the same, but as player output goes up, so does that rating. 

Throwing for 4k is not great any longer. Rookies do that. Just like QBs today, the most successful ones have athletic "feet". 60% completions percentage doesn't make you special or one of the best. 

What ever metric you want...Matt Ryan is falling behind as other guys are passing him. Yards themself are not enough. We all know when you trail and can't keep pace offensively you throw, throw, throw. On top of the fact that we can't run the ball. Yes these are problems as well, but Matt isn't playing at a high enough level to be a difference maker. 

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12 minutes ago, isproab said:

My point is people look at what a good QB looked like then and are still using that. Those QBR numbers combine the performance numbers and you get a rating ever year. The formula is the same, but as player output goes up, so does that rating. 

Throwing for 4k is not great any longer. Rookies do that. Just like QBs today, the most successful ones have athletic "feet". 60% completions percentage doesn't make you special or one of the best. 

What ever metric you want...Matt Ryan is falling behind as other guys are passing him. Yards themself are not enough. We all know when you trail and can't keep pace offensively you throw, throw, throw. On top of the fact that we can't run the ball. Yes these are problems as well, but Matt isn't playing at a high enough level to be a difference maker. 

12 QBs threw for 4K + yards this season, only 1 rookie which was Herbert.  

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4 minutes ago, CraigSmackDaddy said:

12 QBs threw for 4K + yards this season, only 1 rookie which was Herbert.  

You are correct, but that is the territory we are in now. Some other guys were close in past years. Overall, I'm trying to say is young QBs, the best ones, come out hot. Seems like the ones that get the most doubt have risen to the occasion lately. 

We are seeing it more and more. So the level of QB play in my opinion is high.  Ryan has been passed by. He isn't a top 10 QB. Not getting younger. Taking steps bac statistically....draft a young QB 

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24 minutes ago, isproab said:

My point is people look at what a good QB looked like then and are still using that. Those QBR numbers combine the performance numbers and you get a rating ever year. The formula is the same, but as player output goes up, so does that rating. 

Throwing for 4k is not great any longer. Rookies do that. Just like QBs today, the most successful ones have athletic "feet". 60% completions percentage doesn't make you special or one of the best. 

What ever metric you want...Matt Ryan is falling behind as other guys are passing him. Yards themself are not enough. We all know when you trail and can't keep pace offensively you throw, throw, throw. On top of the fact that we can't run the ball. Yes these are problems as well, but Matt isn't playing at a high enough level to be a difference maker. 

No one on offense is...which is why I think Dirk is the biggest reason everyone, I causing Ryan, looks worse than they actually are.

Speaking of which, is he fired yet?

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1 minute ago, Rings said:

No one on offense is...which is why I think Dirk is the biggest reason everyone, I causing Ryan, looks worse than they actually are.

Speaking of which, is he fired yet?

Nobody likes Dirk. His offense sucks. Its part of the problem too. 

If we had a great OC, great running game and a relly good D with the same offensive weapons... All we would need is a game manager at QB. 

If everything else is perfect the QB doesn't have to be more than average. How often does that happen? How long would it take to get a great D, running game, and OC so Ryan could have the perfect team to guide. In other words, so he could the weakest link. 

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1 hour ago, isproab said:

Nobody likes Dirk. His offense sucks. Its part of the problem too. 

If we had a great OC, great running game and a relly good D with the same offensive weapons... All we would need is a game manager at QB. 

If everything else is perfect the QB doesn't have to be more than average. How often does that happen? How long would it take to get a great D, running game, and OC so Ryan could have the perfect team to guide. In other words, so he could the weakest link. 

I can’t anymore with the logic of this fan base that doesn’t understand the impact a coaching staff has on the team, good or bad.  Ryan doesn’t need perfection around him, he needs to not have someone actively making everyone on offense worse.  He hasn’t had a top ten defense since he’s been in the league.  He hasn’t had an average run game in 2 years.  You make all of those things average and this team is a playoff team.

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23 hours ago, vanhino said:

With a better OC and a better defense, why couldn't we??

Every team's chances with their current QB increases if that teams talent increases. This isn't an argument for Matt Ryan. It applies to ANY QB. You seem more interested in the Falcons winning a SB for Ryan, than Ryan being able to help the Falcons win a SB.

Edited by Intellectually Honest
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10 hours ago, thanat0s said:

I'm certain I've been a fan of this team much longer than you've been alive. If you think for one second that I'd ever waste my time trying to justify myself to you, you're dumber than I imagine. 

 

Stay gold, Pony Boy... stay gold.

Aren't personal insults against the rules? just because you don't like his point which is a good one doesn't mean you should savage him. 

Edited by QBat3
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On 1/4/2021 at 12:43 AM, Rings said:

1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t.  Our QB is getting worse, on the wrong side of thirty and will get "bad" soon. We got maybe 2 decent years with Ryan. So right now he is mediocre and on the decline.

2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t. His career isn't ended simply because the Falcons signed him for another several years and currently have no other QB that's better. So it's a technicality. 

3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage scale and save a ton of money for five years and build around him...we are still paying Ryan so that isn’t a thing, and we have no money to surround that person with talent. So far the only fair point.

4) The flawed logic of “we won’t be drafting this high in a long time we we have to take our QB of the future”. This is wrong for two reasons.  QBs taken in the top five have been less successful then the rest of the fist round, and that includes trade ups so it isn’t always bad teams,  second, and most importantly, if we are going to be drafting later the next few years, that means we are winning...with Matt Ryan...so we don’t need a QB right now. Correlation does not equate to causation. Teams can win or lose in spite of their QB, not necessarily because of them.

5) Our offense will look night and day better once DK is gone.  He made everyone on offense, including Ryan, look worse than they are. Pure speculation. Team may be better, or worse or the same.

6) We gave up 44 points today, had a fluke INT and they took a knee on our side of the field, and some think QB is the problem. QB are not just about stats. Failed 3rd down conversions, catches that are caught from behind (poor ball placement), and inflated stats during garbage time i.e. teams well ahead playing prevent, doesn't show up in the stats. This is a correlation.

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about. This is a relative privation and red herring. Whether the Jets fans are hard core supporters of Darnold is irrelevant if the Falcons should or shouldn't draft a QB or if the Falcon fans should be hard core supporters of Ryan.

Responses in bold.

Edited by Intellectually Honest
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10 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

Every team's chances with their current QB increases if that teams talent increases. This isn't an argument for Matt Ryan. It applies to ANY QB. You seem more interested in the Falcons winning a SB for Ryan, than Ryan being able to help the Falcons win a SB.

Ryan being able to help the Falcons win a Super Bowl? He had the 4th highest passer rating in Super Bowl history and the highest passer rating of any losing QB in Super Bowl history! The man played his tail off in that game and the Falcons should have won! What more could he have done?

 

Presently, Dirk Koetter is one of the worst (if not THE worst) OCs in the NFL! Absolutely no creativity on offense and they are running the wrong offense for Ryan's skill set. Instead of Air Coryell, the Falcons need to be running the WCO. With a capable OC (like Shanahan was), Ryan would look much better.

 

And let's talk about the defense, shall we? The defense was ranked 25th the year that the Falcons went to the Super Bowl! How many teams with defenses ranked that low have ever reached the Super Bowl? 

 

The defense this year has been atrocious! It has shown signs of being better ever since Quinn was fired, but it definitely needs improvement. Hopefully next year, things will be pointing upward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, autigerfan said:

Could make sense especially if we traded down to 10-12 and got an extra 2nd and 3rd this year.  

Y'all are so weird. It would take (according to yall) THREE 1st and THREE 2nd and THREE 3rd to get from 4 to 1.... But from 4 to 10 we'd get an extra second and third. So you want to give up a chance to get someone like Fields or Wilson to get an additional second and third? I'm so glad we have professionals running this team. 

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