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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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1 minute ago, tbhawksfan said:

If aggresive is reaching or trading up to reach; then yeah they were very aggressive. TD and DQ just finished 3 losing seasons with a very good QB and a great WR and left this team in shambles; cap wise and player wise

That was my point, they traded up a lot, which made the team very top heavy and no depth.  They have been far from conservative during the draft.

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18 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Yes the Defense was awful today and for sure takes the blame for this game. You would have to be blind or ignorant to argue that.

But last I checked this is a 16 game season. What about last week vs KC? What about the Chargers? What about both games against the Saints? Detroit? Carolina (1st time)? Our defense did enough to win all 5 of those games and our offense laid an egg. In 4 of those 5 Ryan was bad with the only good game being against KC. 

Let's not pretend our defense had played bad the entire year. Since Quinn was fired our defense played well in mostly every game. They went to crap in the 2nd half vs the Bucs the first time and were awful from the opening whistle in this last game. They did enough to win the other 9 games under Raheem yet we only won 4 of them.

Is that all on Matt Ryan? Of Course not, but lets not act like the guy does not deserve blame as well. Everyone is too worried about Matt Ryan's stats and that's been the case since early on his career. So worried about him having the most yards in his first X amount of seasons.. Instead of worrying about what actually matters...Winning. And this goes for more than just Ryan, this is a flaw in our fanbase. How many times do we lose and see people posting personal stat accomplishments right after. Who..Fking..Cares. We lost! In 6 of our last 8 seasons we have been .500 or worse, that is awful. 

In reference to your points made...Alex Smith was not bad or on the verge of retirement. He had the Chiefs going to the playoffs every year yet even still the Chiefs traded up for Mahomes when they saw an opportunity to set their franchise up long-term. They also kept Alex a year while letting Mahomes learn from the bench. They then moved him in a trade the following offseason (The same we could do next offseason with Ryan freeing up a ton of space) 

Does drafting a QB at 4 help us in 2021? Not likely but possible.
Does drafting a guy like Parsons or Surtain change our defense & turn us into a superbowl contender in 2021? Not likely but possible.

The question is, Between those 2 scenarios what set's us up possibly for long term success. No player is a sure thing. The QB could be a bust as could the defensive player. But in a perfect world where both are good players, What helps us in the long term? Football is a game of chess not checkers.

I agree with most of what you said, and I’m not against taking a shot on a guy for the future per say, just not at four.

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4 minutes ago, Rings said:

I agree with most of what you said, and I’m not against taking a shot on a guy for the future per say, just not at four.

You tell me who we could draft that you could immediately plug in and not have to worry about. A guy that would have such an impact to deliver us from a 4-12 season... 

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6 hours ago, Rings said:

1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t.

2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t.

3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage scale and save a ton of money for five years and build around him...we are still paying Ryan so that isn’t a thing, and we have no money to surround that person with talent.

4) The flawed logic of “we won’t be drafting this high in a long time we we have to take our QB of the future”. This is wrong for two reasons.  QBs taken in the top five have been less successful then the rest of the fist round, and that includes trade ups so it isn’t always bad teams,  second, and most importantly, if we are going to be drafting later the next few years, that means we are winning...with Matt Ryan...so we don’t need a QB right now.

5) Our offense will look night and day better once DK is gone.  He made everyone on offense, including Ryan, look worse than they are.

6) We gave up 44 points today, had a fluke INT and they took a knee on our side of the field, and some think QB is the problem.

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about.

Although I have multiple feelings about how I feel we should approach the draft; I don’t believe you completely write off taking a QB. I’ll answer these numbers accordingly.

1) This is inaccurate. Although there are numerous mitigating factors as to why you draft a QB; I’ll address only a few. You also draft a QB when yours is getting older. You also draft a QB when the system requires it. You also draft a QB if your current QB is average. These are just a few. While I don’t subscribe to the narrative that Ryan is bad, I do believe he is physically regressing. A good scheme can mitigate the aging process but it won’t stop it. There is merit to having Ryan’s successor here to learn from him. Transition will be easier.

2) See above. I personally believe Ryan has about 2 years left before he becomes a liability. On the same token, you don’t wait to draft a QB when you don’t have one. The notion that you need to be QB-less in order to take one isn’t a recipe for long term success. Empirical evidence shows that having a viable backup leads to long term success.

3) This is inaccurate. Cap money is a concern but it’s not as much of a concern as you may be think. Most people believe that cap is the end all be all of the league, it’s not, it’s a puzzle piece. Getting a QB on a rookie scale helps with being able to move on from them, thus creating more parity. Oddly enough Ryan was never on the rookie pay scale. So the notion that you can’t invest heavily in a QB position and be successful isn’t true. Offensively the team is pretty loaded with talent to help any QB succeed. We need a few pieces to complete the offense but otherwise we are in decent shape. Defensively we suck @ss. That needs the most work.

4) I wouldn’t say it’s “flawed logic” as much as having a narrow minded view on how the game works. Same could be said about the people opposed to drafting a QB. Drafting a QB at 4 has merit as does several other strategies. To limit our options isn’t wise, that’s how you miss out on talent. Comparing QBs to any other position in football is a false equivalency. When you draft a QB you’re essentially drafting for the future, not the present. This is regardless of if you play them. No rookie has ever taken a team to the Super Bowl. And before this goes further, yes you can win with an older QB. However when referencing these older QBs people conveniently forget to mention when they won their 1st SB. Of the current older QB crop I believe that Brees won his the latest, which was 31; Ryan is 36. Time is not on his side. That being said, getting rid of Ryan won’t magically solve our issues. Even with Ryan at the helm and a good HC, I see us finishing maybe 10-6, or around that neighborhood. A complete turn around but this is how this team with its current talent level should finish. I suspect we’ll be solid with a new HC; I don’t expect us to be world beaters or SB contenders. Going back to my original hypothesis that Ryan has 2 years left of viability, I doubt we can build a true SB contending team in that time frame. We can get close though, which is why drafting a QB holds water, for continuity purposes. If we do draft top ten again it’ll be because Ryan fell off a cliff and we failed to find a viable successor, or disregarded trying to find one. In that case we are now wasting career years for multiple players hitting their prime years. Personally I’d rather be prepared for the future. I’d rather have a QB and not need one, than to need a QB and not have one.

5) Koetter didn’t set the bar that high. If we bring in the right scheme we can be viable offensively again. While I do agree that Koetter deserves his share of the blame for offensive woes, I also am critical of Ryan. His play has diminished and it wasn’t completely because of play calling. His ball lost zip, his long ball had more hang time, his reaction time has slowed down, etc. All things that are inherently physical traits. Don’t get me wrong, these can be mitigated with the right scheme but after awhile you can’t scheme any longer; Father Time catches up.

6) RB is a problem. DE is a problem. LG is a problem. CB is a problem. S is a problem. QB is a problem. However QB is a problem for different reasons than just play. I think there are posters that ignore that to fit the narrative that it’s a “Ryan hater” thing. Which it seldom ever is. Some of us just want to be prepared.

To be honest, Jets have a better/more loyal fan base than us as a whole. While I agree that Ryan gets more than is fair share of criticism; he also gets absolved of wrong doing way more than a fair share as well. Most Falcons fans on these boards don’t watch other teams; let alone several. When you are able to observe and appreciate what other teams do and struggle with, makes you appreciate what you have. Ryan is without a shadow of a doubt the best QB the Falcons ever had, and it’s not even close. That being said, it doesn’t always mean he will be the best QB this franchise ever had. However once Ryan’s career is over you’ll have those same Ryan huggers/haters coming out of the woodwork to explain why the new QB is better/worse than him. Love Ryan and while he set the bar high in terms of play, it’s not unobtainable. 

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So I look at it this way. Ryan has been in Atlanta for many years and really hasn't had any real competition at backup. So he has basically had job security his whole time here. Why not draft a QB now for our future and see if we can light a fire in Ryan for a year or two. Much like the Jordan Love pick has done for Aaron Rodgers. I know we have a lot more pressing issues than Ryan, but I want a change in culture and I really don't care where it starts. Hopefully the new GM can give us that much needed change and get some great picks and free agents for next year

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31 minutes ago, joeyg2033 said:

You tell me who we could draft that you could immediately plug in and not have to worry about. A guy that would have such an impact to deliver us from a 4-12 season... 

Yeah like one possible bust QB is going to change everything. Thank god youre not in control on the team. 🙄

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1 minute ago, FalconinPA said:

So I look at it this way. Ryan has been in Atlanta for many years and really hasn't had any real competition at backup. So he has basically had job security his whole time here. Why not draft a QB now for our future and see if we can light a fire in Ryan for a year or two. Much like the Jordan Love pick has done for Aaron Rodgers. I know we have a lot more pressing issues than Ryan, but I want a change in culture and I really don't care where it starts. Hopefully the new GM can give us that much needed change and get some great picks and free agents for next year

I agree we need a change somewhere/somehow. But I don't think Love is making Aaron sweat at all. Aaron probably said "who? Good luck with that." When they drafted love.

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2 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

I agree we need a change somewhere/somehow. But I don't think Love is making Aaron sweat at all. Aaron probably said "who? Good luck with that." When they drafted love.

Your probably right, but it did ruffle his feathers a bit. There was nonstop coverage of how unhappy he was with the pick. 

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Just now, FalconinPA said:

Your probably right, but it did ruffle his feathers a bit. There was nonstop coverage of how unhappy he was with the pick. 

Yes it did. I saw an interview about it recently. It probably did piss Aaron off some, which can be a motivator.

But now it appears Aaron is actually mentoring him (according to the short interview I saw).

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Okay, how old will Matt Ryan be going into next season? How old will Julio Jones be heading into next season? You don't build around a 36 year old QB and a 32 year old receiver. I'm sorry,

 

and there's a big difference between the 3 years in a row we missed the postseason from 2013-2015 compared to the 3 years in a row we missed the postseason from 2018-2020. We made a significant drop from 2012 to 2013, but our records from 2013-2015 in spite the change from Mike Smith to Dan Quinn, 4-12, 6-10, 8-8, we kept improving year after year until our 11-5 Super Bowl season in 2016.

 

From 2018-2020, 7-9, 7-9, 4-12, and we were 10-6 in 2017 and 3rd in the NFC South (barely made the playoffs as a #6 seed), we have gotten worse and worse each year since the Super Bowl collapse.

 

Matt Ryan is aging, he's no longer clutch like he was earlier in his career. Okay, sure, in the Bucs game we scored 27 and the defense gave up 44, but guess what? Our defense played well against the Chiefs, Chargers, Saints (the 2nd time), what did our offense do with Matt Ryan as the QB?

 

We lost our final 6 games to end this disastrous 4-12 season, and remember, our strong 6-2 finish in 2019 was supposed to carry into 2020, but did it? I don't think so. Will losing all these close games in 2020 carry into 2021? Hmmmm. Yeah, we better draft a QB top 4 and make the harsh changes that will put the pressure on Matt Ryan and change the culture of this franchise. 

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8 hours ago, Rings said:

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about.

Winning Percentage 2018-2020

Matt Ryan - 37.5%
Sam Darnold - 35.1%

Now, you can be a Ryan fan and if that’s your gig, so be it.  But let’s understand that our grass over here has been brown for quite some time.

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

Love was taken at 26 overall, not 4.  Love hasn’t seen the field to my knowledge, so I don’t know how that helps the argument.  It may be a good example in a few years but right now it looks like a wasted pick because Rodgers is playing lights out.  What if they had taken an impact player on offense or defense instead?  
 

I never said we shouldn’t take a QB at all in April, but we shouldn’t take one at 4 overall.  Also, Ryan cap hit has been minimal compared to other teams with great defenses the last few years, so that isn’t the reason our defense sucks.  The defense literally got better when they fired the head coach.  Did Ryan’s cap hit get smaller when Quinn got fired to make this happen?  Coaching is by far the biggest reason this team struggled.  

I agree it’s time to start thinking about the future after Ryan, but we also have to fix LG, C, RB, CB, S, both EDGE spots and we need depth all over so we don’t have practice squad quality people seeing the field like we have the last few years.  We have to recoup picks TD threw away to trade up so many time in the first round.  I’d feel much better if they traded back and added a couple extra picks to help address those roles because we won’t have money in free agency to do anything with.  If they drop back to middle of the first or late first and then take a QB, I’m good with it, because we will have gotten multiple other picks to address needs that will help in 2021.

Dude, we get it you love you some Matt Ryan.  I believe we all did once during his tenure here but the majority of the Fan base is ready to turn the page on both him and injury prone Julio. Though, I believe Julio still has something left; I don't feel that way with Ryan.  He is what he is, as some have said a statue back there and he throws a flat deep ball.

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1 hour ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

If that's the case, then why has TD gotten the reputation that he has?

 

Some of his dealings may have not worked out, but the Falcons have been anything but conservative under TD.

 

you mean by moving up and getting Julio or wasting picks on Vick Beasley and McKinley who both have been anything but stellar and I know you will say, "he was the NFL sack leader" and I will give you that but has he done since than? I will wait, oh I know; was allowed to walk, signed with Titans, Titans cut him, Raiders signed  him,  how many sacks does he have now? Please don't let me start with McKinley, he was worst than Beasley? If that what you mean by aggressive than you and I have two different definition for that word. 

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9 hours ago, Rings said:

1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t.

2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t.

3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage scale and save a ton of money for five years and build around him...we are still paying Ryan so that isn’t a thing, and we have no money to surround that person with talent.

4) The flawed logic of “we won’t be drafting this high in a long time we we have to take our QB of the future”. This is wrong for two reasons.  QBs taken in the top five have been less successful then the rest of the fist round, and that includes trade ups so it isn’t always bad teams,  second, and most importantly, if we are going to be drafting later the next few years, that means we are winning...with Matt Ryan...so we don’t need a QB right now.

5) Our offense will look night and day better once DK is gone.  He made everyone on offense, including Ryan, look worse than they are.

6) We gave up 44 points today, had a fluke INT and they took a knee on our side of the field, and some think QB is the problem.

It blows my mind that Jets fans fight for Sam Darnold who has accomplished nothing and this fan base is so blind they want to flush Ryan down the toilet.  I am at the point where I almost want it to happen so I can call every person on here out when the grass isn’t greener and they realize Ryan is the best QB this franchise has ever had and for some reason people did nothing but **** on him his whole career, mainly because they have no clue what they are talking about.

PREACH!!!!!  MR2 is NOT the problem!!

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10 minutes ago, blknoble357 said:

you mean by moving up and getting Julio or wasting picks on Vick Beasley and McKinley who both have been anything but stellar and I know you will say, "he was the NFL sack leader" and I will give you that but has he done since than? I will wait, oh I know; was allowed to walk, signed with Titans, Titans cut him, Raiders signed  him,  how many sacks does he have now? Please don't let me start with McKinley, he was worst than Beasley? If that what you mean by aggressive than you and I have two different definition for that word. 

 

TD is known for being aggressive good or bad.

 

You were wrong about the Falcons being conservative under TD's watch.

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14 minutes ago, blknoble357 said:

Dude, we get it you love you some Matt Ryan.  I believe we all did once during his tenure here but the majority of the Fan base is ready to turn the page on both him and injury prone Julio. Though, I believe Julio still has something left; I don't feel that way with Ryan.  He is what he is, as some have said a statue back there and he throws a flat deep ball.

Well that’s just it isn’t it... some feel Ryan has more left in the tank.  **** at least he’s on the field.  I love Julio and would hate to see him in another uni but it doesn’t matter how good he is if he’s always injured.  Can you honestly tell me that you think he’ll play all 16 games next season?  With that said, I don’t trade or release him due to the cap hit either at least not until post 6-1-22.   
 

I’ve said it multiple times now but will say it again, I don’t think we should draft a QB at # 4 but if we do I’m not gonna be mad.  I at least get the reasoning.  We need help on defense and need a running game far more than a new QB though.  You draft a QB and don’t fix the defense and still have no running game and this team won’t even be competitive with Lawrence or Fields.  I’d bet my savings on that!  If you wanna setup the next starting QB for the Falcons then spend these high picks this year on defense, RB, and a left guard.  If Ryan is bad as some of you say then we’ll be drafting high again next year to take that mobile QB you’re clamoring for.  

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

Flacco was garbage, the defense won the Super Bowl, same when Dilferbwas a “Super Bowl Winnjng QB”.  They also traded back into the first to take Jackson at 32 overall, not 4.  

Not true. The defense carried the team to the playoffs but Flacco was exceptional in the Super Bowl. Re-watch the game.

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As for the top 5-10 myth, here is the draft history from the past 5 years. Herbert who was the 3rd QB taken last year has turned into a star player;

2020: Herbert#6, Tua, Burrow.

2019: Murray, Daniel Jones.

2018: Mayfield and Darnold.

2017: Trubisky.

2016: Goff and Wentz. 

Most of the QBs taken aren't busts, and its just as likely if not more likely to draft a Derrick Brown, Okudeh, or a Clellin Farrell. Most of our defensive top 10 picks have been busts. May I remind you or Aundray Bruce, Beasley, or Ludacris? 

Edited by QBat3
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