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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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8 minutes ago, lju713 said:

If Sewell isnt there at 4 and a QB is, we may as well take Matt's replacement. KC did it and never looked back. Nobody could've predicted Mahomes would be that good. We have to strike while the iron is hot💪🏾

the difference is KC was already a playoff team without Mahomes.  And if you notice, Andy Reid waited a year to draft a qb.

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1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t. 2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t. 3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage s

I think our chance of winning one in the next three years is higher with Ryan than a QB we could take this year.  After that you take a QB that gives you a better chance the following five years than

With a better OC and a better defense, why couldn't we??

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On 1/12/2021 at 4:22 PM, Dr Long Shot said:

I'm focused on all things. I didn't take Super Bowls away just illustrated that the people picking QB top 10 the last 20 years won superbowls 0.7% of the time within a 3-20 year time frame of doing so. Just for context.

But back to bust rates. Let's do what you say and compare apples to apples by position. Let's define a bust as someone who was either benched or out of the league by year 5. Let's also take a look at "home runs" since some posters are saing that Qbs are the better "home run" pick. Let's define these as those that have a Hall of Fame probability score of over 70 points in Pro Football Reference. I'm taking a sample from all top 10 picks from the 2016 season (to have enough time for the bust criteria) to 1998. Here is the breakdown by position:

  • QBs: 30 total picks: 18 Busts. 4 HoFer probables. That's a 60% bust probability vs 13% HoFer 
  • DBs: 10 total picks: 4 Busts, 1 HoFer. - 40% vs 10%.
  • LBrs: 14 total picks: 4 Busts, 4 Hofers - 29% vs 29%
  • Tackles: 25 total picks: 3 Busts, 2 HoFers - 12% vs 8% 
  • RBs: 17 total picks: 3 Busts, 3 HoFers - 18% vs 18%
  • WRs: 26 total picks: 11 Busts, 5 HoFers - 42% vs 19%
  • DTs: 15 total picks: 5 Busts, 1 HoFer - 33% vs 6.6%
  • DEs: 27 total picks: 11 Busts, 3 HoFers - 41% vs 11%

So to sum it up. Yes, QBs bust at an amazingly higher rate in the top 10 than ANY other position. And to top it off it really does not have any higher % of hitting a "home run" than any other pick, with WRs, Rbs, and LBrs all offering a higher chance at a future Hall of Famer. Now, consider we already have one of those extremely unlikely HoFers under contract for 40 million a year at QB... and there is no way to move him without butchering our cap. So how in the world are we going to conclude QB is the "smart" pick when we have holes all up and down the roster outside of QB. In fact Qb was probably strongest performing position last year in the entire team perhaps outside of WR.

BTW here is the complete list of all players for anyone doubting or curious: Bolded are the busts and Bolded in purple are the HoFer probables according to Pro Football Reference.

QBs: Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Luck, Griffin, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Bradford, Mat Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan, Jam Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinert, Alex Smith, Eli, Rivers, Palmer, Leftwich, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith,  PaytonLeaf.

DBs: Jalen Ramsey, Eli Apple, Justin Gilbert, Dee Miliner, Morris Claiborne, Mark Barron, Stephone Gilmore, Pat Peterson, Eric Berry, Joe Haden. 

LBers: Leonard Floyd, Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr, Luke Kuechly Von MillerRolando Mclain, Aaron Curry, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Lavar Arrington, Brian Urlacher, Chris Claiborne.

Tackles: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Greg Robinson, Jake Mathews, Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, Matt Kalil, Tyron Smith, Trent WilliamsRussell Okung, Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, D'Brickashaw Fergusan, Robert Gallery, Jordan Gross, Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Leonard Davis, Chris Samuels, Kyle Turley.

RBs:  Zeke, Gurley, Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller, Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush,  Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams,  LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Fred Taylor.

WRs: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tavon Austin, Justin Blackmon, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Darius Hayword-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Charles Rodgers, Andre Johnson, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, Torry HoltDavid Boston.

DTs: Marcell Dareus, N'damukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, B.J. Raji, Glenn DorseySedrick Ellis, Amobi Okoye, Leonard Williams, Dewayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims, John Henderson, Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Corey Simon, 

DEs: Joey Bosa, Deforest Buckner, Clowney, Dion Jordan, Ezekial Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Aldon Smith, Tyson Aluolu, Dante FowlerVic Beasley, Tyson Jackson, Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, Mario Williams, Kevin WilliamsTerrell Suggs, Julius Peppers,  Justin Smith, Andre Carter, Jamal Reynolds, Courtney Brown, Andre Wadsworth, Grant Wistrom, Greg Ellis.

 

 

 

This is an excellent post.

Something I find fascinating about the draft is the weird little exceptions. Like, Mingo almost died during a preseason game as a rookie. Amobi Okoye showed so much promise at 20 but never got better. Justin Blackmon smoked his way out of the league.

There's so many different ways a player can go wrong beyond struggling on the field. Peria Jerry looked like he was going to be a monster for us, but that knee injury as a rookie effectively ended his career. He lost his burst. We see stuff like that all the time, and it's so strange to look at as a single list.

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11 hours ago, jidady said:

This is an excellent post.

Something I find fascinating about the draft is the weird little exceptions. Like, Mingo almost died during a preseason game as a rookie. Amobi Okoye showed so much promise at 20 but never got better. Justin Blackmon smoked his way out of the league.

There's so many different ways a player can go wrong beyond struggling on the field. Peria Jerry looked like he was going to be a monster for us, but that knee injury as a rookie effectively ended his career. He lost his burst. We see stuff like that all the time, and it's so strange to look at as a single list.

Truth.  So many variables effect the growth of a player.  Wrong scheme, poor/great coaching, wrong culture, and the distractions outside the game and the maturity of the player.  It's amazing really that teams hit on players at all sometimes.  You can scout and assess all you like, but you can never be 💯 on any one.  

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On 2/28/2021 at 11:21 PM, vanhino said:

I hate to break it to you, but a veteran former MVP starting QB who is still playing at a high level isn't going to play for $10 million per year...........it's not happening! 

Please enlighten me as to what the front office should have done in 2018 instead of signing Ryan. Should they have let Ryan walk after the 2018 season and promoted Matt Schaub to starting QB? Should they have drafted Dwayne Haskins in the 2019 draft? What should they have done?

I didn't say he needed to be paid 10 million a year. WTH are you talking about? I just said Ryan's contract is a problem. Ryan is a good QB being paid elite money. I don't blame Ryan for accepting the money. I blame the front office of the Falcons, and indirectly all the teams, for creating such disparity for what starting QBs make.

Even then this wouldnt be a problem if the owners didn lie and make a cap, under the guise of parity, simply because they didnt want to pay more money to the players. Its BS.

Since that is the circumstances, QBs have an overinflated chunk of the cap, and to pay a decent QB, the team has to be willing to make sacrifices somewhere else. So unless you can build a team around a relatively inexpensive rookie contract if you have a great rookie, teams will overpay in one position, and hope that QB is elite to carry the rest of the team. Matt isn't. He shouldnt need to be either. His team should also be good IF the team can afford it. The team cant due to cap restrictions.

 

So unless the team has Brady who is willing to be paid less that market value, and to get people to go to the team, being paid less, because they believe they can have a good chance of winning a Super Bowl, it aint going to happen.

 

Right now the team needs a miracle to turn around a bad D in time that Ryan is still decent, all within a small window.

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22 hours ago, Intellectually Honest said:

I didn't say he needed to be paid 10 million a year. WTH are you talking about? I just said Ryan's contract is a problem. Ryan is a good QB being paid elite money. I don't blame Ryan for accepting the money. I blame the front office of the Falcons, and indirectly all the teams, for creating such disparity for what starting QBs make.

Even then this wouldnt be a problem if the owners didn lie and make a cap, under the guise of parity, simply because they didnt want to pay more money to the players. Its BS.

Since that is the circumstances, QBs have an overinflated chunk of the cap, and to pay a decent QB, the team has to be willing to make sacrifices somewhere else. So unless you can build a team around a relatively inexpensive rookie contract if you have a great rookie, teams will overpay in one position, and hope that QB is elite to carry the rest of the team. Matt isn't. He shouldnt need to be either. His team should also be good IF the team can afford it. The team cant due to cap restrictions.

 

So unless the team has Brady who is willing to be paid less that market value, and to get people to go to the team, being paid less, because they believe they can have a good chance of winning a Super Bowl, it aint going to happen.

 

Right now the team needs a miracle to turn around a bad D in time that Ryan is still decent, all within a small window.

Ryan doesn't make elite money compared to other starting quarterbacks. He is ranked 9th in salary and makes less than Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. 

 

The quarterback position is the most important on the field, which is why they are paid the most money. You can blame the Falcons front office, the front offices of other teams, the owners, Roger Goodell, and the sun rising in the east, but it won't change this fact. Good veteran starting quarterbacks cost a lot of money. The Falcons front office paid Ryan what they felt his market value was. I have no problem with that.

 

The Falcons don't need a miracle to turn around the D. They already have a new and capable DC and will draft help on defense. There will also be help regarding free agents. Like I have said before, this is the NFL, and things turn around quickly.

 

 

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On 3/1/2021 at 7:05 PM, lju713 said:

If Sewell isnt there at 4 and a QB is, we may as well take Matt's replacement. KC did it and never looked back. Nobody could've predicted Mahomes would be that good. We have to strike while the iron is hot💪🏾

Mahomes wasn’t a top 5 pick.  Smith didn’t have a 49mil cap hit the following season.  The Chiefs were a playoff team before taking Mahomes.  This isn’t apples to apples at all.

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

Mahomes wasn’t a top 5 pick.  Smith didn’t have a 49mil cap hit the following season.  The Chiefs were a playoff team before taking Mahomes.  This isn’t apples to apples at all.

True. Would you trade make with Denver and hope Lance falls🤔

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26 minutes ago, lju713 said:

True. Would you trade make with Denver and hope Lance falls🤔

I don’t want a QB this draft.  Don’t forget KC went from 27th to 10 to get Mahomes, and Houston from 25 to 12 to get Watson.  People keep acting like it’s now or never because we have a high pick, which isn’t the case.  Depending how Ryan plays this year and if they do anything with his contract should determine if we look at a QB in next years draft when it’s much easier to move on from him and take advantage of a cheap rookie contract.

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11 hours ago, Rings said:

I don’t want a QB this draft.  Don’t forget KC went from 27th to 10 to get Mahomes, and Houston from 25 to 12 to get Watson.  People keep acting like it’s now or never because we have a high pick, which isn’t the case.  Depending how Ryan plays this year and if they do anything with his contract should determine if we look at a QB in next years draft when it’s much easier to move on from him and take advantage of a cheap rookie contract.

Im just thinking about the future man. Matt is 35 or 36yrs old and that 41m cap hit is BRUTAL. I love Matt and everything he has done for the city and franchise. I just think a new GM and HC will want their own QB. The 2022 class of QBs is unimpressive or not as deep/talented as this 1. Whomever we draft is sitting a yr anyway.

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30 minutes ago, lju713 said:

Im just thinking about the future man. Matt is 35 or 36yrs old and that 41m cap hit is BRUTAL. I love Matt and everything he has done for the city and franchise. I just think a new GM and HC will want their own QB. The 2022 class of QBs is unimpressive or not as deep/talented as this 1. Whomever we draft is sitting a yr anyway.

I get it, rather than typing it all out again I talk about most your concerns in the initial post of this thread.  As far as next years QB class, we have no clue what that looks like.  Joe Burrow was a nobody until his last year and went one overall and broke how many college QB records.  There are a lot of QBs who were behind someone who had now moved on that will jump on people’s radars this year, so it’s pointless to look at a QB class a year out.  It also makes you look at Lance who only played one game and didn’t look good in it this year, had he played the whole season at that pace he wouldn’t even be talked about as a first rounder.

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21 minutes ago, Rings said:

I get it, rather than typing it all out again I talk about most your concerns in the initial post of this thread.  As far as next years QB class, we have no clue what that looks like.  Joe Burrow was a nobody until his last year and went one overall and broke how many college QB records.  There are a lot of QBs who were behind someone who had now moved on that will jump on people’s radars this year, so it’s pointless to look at a QB class a year out.  It also makes you look at Lance who only played one game and didn’t look good in it this year, had he played the whole season at that pace he wouldn’t even be talked about as a first rounder.

Great points.  This is why we play the games.

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On 1/12/2021 at 1:46 AM, theDIRTYcode said:

If you believe in taking BPA....that's gonna be a QB at 4, whether it be Fields or Zach Wilson. Yall need to get on the phone and start finding a trading partner, cause if we take Parsons or Surtain at 4 with Zach Wilson on the board imma flip my ****....not really, but I'm going bitxh about it.

Parsons, surtain, farley, sewell all have better value as bpa

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2 hours ago, lju713 said:

Im just thinking about the future man. Matt is 35 or 36yrs old and that 41m cap hit is BRUTAL. I love Matt and everything he has done for the city and franchise. I just think a new GM and HC will want their own QB. The 2022 class of QBs is unimpressive or not as deep/talented as this 1. Whomever we draft is sitting a yr anyway.

It's not as deep right now. Wait till the pundits get started with next years draft and the next best things since gravy. These guys are not going to impact a team enough to be rated as highly as they are.

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

I get it, rather than typing it all out again I talk about most your concerns in the initial post of this thread.  As far as next years QB class, we have no clue what that looks like.  Joe Burrow was a nobody until his last year and went one overall and broke how many college QB records.  There are a lot of QBs who were behind someone who had now moved on that will jump on people’s radars this year, so it’s pointless to look at a QB class a year out.  It also makes you look at Lance who only played one game and didn’t look good in it this year, had he played the whole season at that pace he wouldn’t even be talked about as a first rounder.

💯

sam howell will be as good as any qb in this draft. and that's not to mention guys like slovis, nix, thompson-robinson, morgan, purdy, ridder, daniels, etc, etc, etc.

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What frustrates me is that some folks who are supposed to know football look at the falcons and immediately assume we need a qb. I sometimes think that it's a knee jerk reaction to having the #4 pick, the overinflation of qb talent in this draft, and the cap h*** created by td in pushing Ryan's cap hit back. Ryan is not making a killing comparatively with his base salary. I ask the question, how would these same people feel if it were c young, a donald, or anyone of that caliber sitting at #4?

     Doesn't it seem weird and offsetting that the qb who led his team to a 13 win undefeated season and won a natty isn't even ranked in the top 10 or 15? Everyone brings up that he was surrounded by talent, coaching, etc., and they want a qb who can take the team on his back and lead them to championships. I beg the question, how many of these higher rated qb's did that? Both clemson and osu had excellant teams, but that elite, gifted qb couldn't carry them.

Nuff said, ryan is here for probably next 2 years, if the fo sees someone they like during that time period...cool. But, until that time comes, I hope they fill the field with as many top 100 players as possible so that our qb doesn't have to carry the team.

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3 hours ago, Rings said:

I get it, rather than typing it all out again I talk about most your concerns in the initial post of this thread.  As far as next years QB class, we have no clue what that looks like.  Joe Burrow was a nobody until his last year and went one overall and broke how many college QB records.  There are a lot of QBs who were behind someone who had now moved on that will jump on people’s radars this year, so it’s pointless to look at a QB class a year out.  It also makes you look at Lance who only played one game and didn’t look good in it this year, had he played the whole season at that pace he wouldn’t even be talked about as a first rounder.

Two names for the 2022 draft class to keep an eye on. Brock Purdy of Iowa State and Sam Howell of North Carolina.

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Pretty much I am reading here that Matt Ryan is our only hope and that anything else would be worse than him... 32 teams in the league, and only 3 of them had worse records than Matt Ryan and the Falcons. 

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24 minutes ago, itsryanwonder said:

Pretty much I am reading here that Matt Ryan is our only hope and that anything else would be worse than him... 32 teams in the league, and only 3 of them had worse records than Matt Ryan and the Falcons. 

Everyone loves Deshaun Watson and his team won the same number of games as Matt Ryan's team. 🤷‍♂️

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27 minutes ago, itsryanwonder said:

Pretty much I am reading here that Matt Ryan is our only hope and that anything else would be worse than him... 32 teams in the league, and only 3 of them had worse records than Matt Ryan and the Falcons. 

No, you're reading what you want....projecting

There were 3 TEAMS worse than the falcons. Had very little to do with qb.

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