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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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28 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

I have done it in the past and the bust rate (out of the league within 5 season) in the first round is around 35%, lower in the top 5 probably. Odds of getting a pro bowler is around 30% as well. Much higher than QB.

And taking a quick glance at some random top 10s, doesn't seem like the top 10 rate is much different than the first round rate overall. There are a few exceptions with some totally loaded top 10s, but they are offset by years where entire top 10s yield almost no pro bowls. Julio's draft was loaded af, every non QB drafted was a pro bowler. But then you look at Matt Ryan's draft and outside of Ryan you don't have a single franchise player and only two others made a pro bowl and one of those (Chris Long) had to retire early because of injuries. Shows me draft position is probably a little overrated. 

 

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1) You draft a QB when your current QB is bad...ours isn’t. 2) You draft a QB when your QB is ending his career...ours isn’t. 3) You draft a QB so you can take advantage of the rookie wage s

With a better OC and a better defense, why couldn't we??

I think our chance of winning one in the next three years is higher with Ryan than a QB we could take this year.  After that you take a QB that gives you a better chance the following five years than

5 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

He needs to pray a team like SF trades up.

If he ends up in Jacksonville, New York or Atlanta the poor kid is gonna be ruined.

Yeah, scheme fit and coaching are two of the critical component's in a QB's success. Most of the guys we're discussing have enough tools to succeed in the NFL. The question is who can unlock them in the player. Some of that comes down to personal responsibility, but Mahomes wouldn't be what he is if the Jets had drafted him.

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6 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

He needs to pray a team like SF trades up.

If he ends up in Jacksonville, New York or Atlanta the poor kid is gonna be ruined.

Atlanta has on3 of the best owners so i dont k ow where youre getting at about ruining someone. 

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53 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

Posted this on another thread but it was a bit off topic so I'll post it here so it doesn't get lost. Interesting look at all QBs drafted top 10, the ten years before we drafted Matt Ryan and the ten years after we drafted MR. And this is how they compare to Ryan.

Here is every QB drafted in top 10 in the previous 10 drafts before Ryans and their career accomplishments:

  •  Jamarcus Russell(won 7 games)
  • Vince Young(won 31 games)
  •  Matt Leinert (won 8 games)
  •  Alex Smith (27th all time in yards, 18th in wins)
  • Eli Manning (12th in wins, 8th in yards, 9th in Tds)
  • Philip Rivers (8th in wins, 5th in yards, and 5th tds), 
  • Carson Palmer (30th in wins, 14th in yards, 13th in tds)
  • Byron Leftwich (24 career wins)
  • David Carr (23 wins)
  • Joey Harrington (26 wins)
  • Michael Vick (61 wins)
  • Tim Couch (22 wins)
  • Donovan McNabb (19th in wins, 25th in yards, 31st in Tds)
  • Akili Smith (3 wins)
  • Payton Manning (GOAT)
  • Ryan Leaf (Biggest bust of all time)

That's it. In this entire list the ammount of superbowls accumulated is 4. Take away the Manning's and the number is 0.

Ok. Let's compare Ryan to all the QBs drafted a decade after he was drafted from 2009-2018. Out of every single QB drafted in the top 10 during that span, an illustrious list which includes the likes of Blake Bortles, Jamies Winston, Blain Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Carzon Wentz, Josh rosen, Robert Griffith... ok, ok, there's actually good ones there too specifically Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford. and... Goff I guess? Well out of all these players there is exactly 1 (!) who has a higher career AV per season than Ryan's 14.7. (192total AV / 13 season). Out of all these players thare are only 2 that average more wins per season than Ryan's 9. (Josh Allen and Mahomes). That's it. 

Outside of Mahomes the cumulative amount of superbowls won by the aproximately 20 QBs drafted top 10 from 2009-2018 is... *drumroll*: 0. 

So yea. People seem to not understand how extremely unlikely it is that we'll walk away with a future franchise QB with this top 5 pick. Odds we draft a big time bust are high, assuming the last 20+ years are a good barometer the likelyhood is around 60-65%. The odds we draft a QB who will be better than Ryan has been the last 3-4 years is probably lower than that. 

The most shocking thing to me is that the cumulitive amount of superbowls won by the 40-45 Qbs drafted in the top 10 is 5 by three players. 

Ok now do this for every other position. Results will be the same.

There’s no guaranteed recipe for a SB. I find this type of thinking extremely flawed since it’s predicated on the QB being the sole reason why a team wins the SB, which is false. Not to mention you can’t exclude actual SB winners to skew the results to your narrative. Present the results accurately. By this rational/standard we shouldn’t have taken Ryan in 2008.

A more accurate analysis would be to correlate top 10 QB picks as it relates to helping their teams get to a winning record, how many drafts jr takes to build the team, and how long it takes to get to the playoffs. In the end the QB can’t do it alone, you still have to build the team in general  

No one is saying it’ll be easy to find a franchise QB, however when you have a premium pick, you have more options to select from. You can choose the best prospects available and aren’t limited by you draft position.

You know what most burgeoning competitive teams do have in common? Cap room. Case in point Miami, completely churned their roster, traded star players, accumulated picks and maneuvered the FA masterfully with stellar signings (big and small). There were no sacred cows. If we’re expecting a 180 degree turnaround then you can’t half @ss it for an antiquated sense of loyalty to any single player.

Most people want to draft a QB so that we have a successor in place. It’s not a “win now” move. It’s building for the future.

Contrary to popular belief Ryan has been regressing physical for a few years. I doubt we can build a contender by the time Ryan’s contract is up.

While it’s never a guarantee that drafting a QB will warrant success, in order to build a sustained contender you need a viable QB behind center. 

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9 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

He needs to pray a team like SF trades up.

If he ends up in Jacksonville, New York or Atlanta the poor kid is gonna be ruined.

Correct.  He could go to Jacksonville though and succeed with Urban Myer, but only Myer.  Myer would have total control there and wouldn't put up with no mess concerning his quarterback.

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1 minute ago, dapanch420 said:

Atlanta has on3 of the best owners so i dont k ow where youre getting at about ruining someone. 

Ownership's terrific, but Arthur Blank never blocked an incoming pass rusher. We've had line issues on both sides of the ball for the body of a decade. Blank's been the owner that entire time. There's only so much he can do.

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31 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

I have done it in the past and the bust rate (out of the league within 5 season) in the first round is around 35%, lower in the top 5 probably. Odds of getting a pro bowler is around 30% as well. Much higher than QB.

You’re kind of all over the place with your argument. Are you more focused on bust rate or SB wins? You made it a point to take away SB wins from QBs. 

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Just now, jidady said:

Ownership's terrific, but Arthur Blank never blocked an incoming pass rusher. We've had line issues on both sides of the ball for the body of a decade. Blank's been the owner that entire time. There's only so much he can do.

We have 3 first rounders on the oline i positively sure they under producing more because of koetters incompetence then anything else. Having a good oc will have th3m playing to their potential

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Just now, dapanch420 said:

We have 3 first rounders on the oline i positively sure they under producing more because of koetters incompetence then anything else. Having a good oc will have th3m playing to their potential

Koetter's not even their position coach. He's not a great OC by any stretch, despite his reputation, but it's unreasonable to blame a decade of failure on a single OC anyway.

No rookie QB could come in and succeed if the offensive line continues to play at its current level. Atlanta's top seven have PFF grades of:

77.2

75.5

65.7

64.1

56.1

54.4

47.0

That's two above average starters, two below average starters, and three guys who shouldn't start/take the field. Any rookie QB who entered our lineup would get swarmed. We have a 13-year veteran who has continually struggled with pass protection breakdowns, and that dude has won MVP and been voted for four Pro Bowls.

 

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On 1/4/2021 at 1:22 AM, vanhino said:

You build through the draft. Draft a good RB (Najee Harris is my choice) and draft good players on D. That, along with getting a good head coach, OC, and DC, and the odds of winning go up tremendously.

I agree, A great O# would take us a long way, And we're only missing a few major players.. WE should easily get the missing players in this draft. Plus get two unstoppable DTs ,, two would even be better ,, same for DEs.

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2 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

You’re kind of all over the place with your argument. Are you more focused on bust rate or SB wins? You made it a point to take away SB wins from QBs. 

I'm focused on all things. I didn't take Super Bowls away just illustrated that the people picking QB top 10 the last 20 years won superbowls 0.7% of the time within a 3-20 year time frame of doing so. Just for context.

But back to bust rates. Let's do what you say and compare apples to apples by position. Let's define a bust as someone who was either benched or out of the league by year 5. Let's also take a look at "home runs" since some posters are saing that Qbs are the better "home run" pick. Let's define these as those that have a Hall of Fame probability score of over 70 points in Pro Football Reference. I'm taking a sample from all top 10 picks from the 2016 season (to have enough time for the bust criteria) to 1998. Here is the breakdown by position:

  • QBs: 30 total picks: 18 Busts. 4 HoFer probables. That's a 60% bust probability vs 13% HoFer 
  • DBs: 10 total picks: 4 Busts, 1 HoFer. - 40% vs 10%.
  • LBrs: 14 total picks: 4 Busts, 4 Hofers - 29% vs 29%
  • Tackles: 25 total picks: 3 Busts, 2 HoFers - 12% vs 8% 
  • RBs: 17 total picks: 3 Busts, 3 HoFers - 18% vs 18%
  • WRs: 26 total picks: 11 Busts, 5 HoFers - 42% vs 19%
  • DTs: 15 total picks: 5 Busts, 1 HoFer - 33% vs 6.6%
  • DEs: 27 total picks: 11 Busts, 3 HoFers - 41% vs 11%

So to sum it up. Yes, QBs bust at an amazingly higher rate in the top 10 than ANY other position. And to top it off it really does not have any higher % of hitting a "home run" than any other pick, with WRs, Rbs, and LBrs all offering a higher chance at a future Hall of Famer. Now, consider we already have one of those extremely unlikely HoFers under contract for 40 million a year at QB... and there is no way to move him without butchering our cap. So how in the world are we going to conclude QB is the "smart" pick when we have holes all up and down the roster outside of QB. In fact Qb was probably strongest performing position last year in the entire team perhaps outside of WR.

BTW here is the complete list of all players for anyone doubting or curious: Bolded are the busts and Bolded in purple are the HoFer probables according to Pro Football Reference.

QBs: Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Luck, Griffin, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Bradford, Mat Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan, Jam Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinert, Alex Smith, Eli, Rivers, Palmer, Leftwich, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith,  PaytonLeaf.

DBs: Jalen Ramsey, Eli Apple, Justin Gilbert, Dee Miliner, Morris Claiborne, Mark Barron, Stephone Gilmore, Pat Peterson, Eric Berry, Joe Haden. 

LBers: Leonard Floyd, Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr, Luke Kuechly Von MillerRolando Mclain, Aaron Curry, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Lavar Arrington, Brian Urlacher, Chris Claiborne.

Tackles: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Greg Robinson, Jake Mathews, Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, Matt Kalil, Tyron Smith, Trent WilliamsRussell Okung, Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, D'Brickashaw Fergusan, Robert Gallery, Jordan Gross, Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Leonard Davis, Chris Samuels, Kyle Turley.

RBs:  Zeke, Gurley, Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller, Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush,  Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams,  LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Fred Taylor.

WRs: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tavon Austin, Justin Blackmon, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Darius Hayword-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Charles Rodgers, Andre Johnson, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, Torry HoltDavid Boston.

DTs: Marcell Dareus, N'damukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, B.J. Raji, Glenn DorseySedrick Ellis, Amobi Okoye, Leonard Williams, Dewayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims, John Henderson, Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Corey Simon, 

DEs: Joey Bosa, Deforest Buckner, Clowney, Dion Jordan, Ezekial Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Aldon Smith, Tyson Aluolu, Dante FowlerVic Beasley, Tyson Jackson, Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, Mario Williams, Kevin WilliamsTerrell Suggs, Julius Peppers,  Justin Smith, Andre Carter, Jamal Reynolds, Courtney Brown, Andre Wadsworth, Grant Wistrom, Greg Ellis.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, TheTrue7 said:

On a serious note though, nice job with that post. Some bust considerations are somewhat subjective, but I certainly appreciate what you put into it.

Yup, there are some borderlines but 99.9% of the time I stuck to the criteria... The most "borderline" cases are Roy Williams who was still technically starting at year 6 though not an impact player, and Vic and Fowler who should be on the non bust list since they both started at year 5. But I wasn't going to put either of these bums as non busts.

Also you could also make arguments for QBs such as Alex Smith, Palmer, and even Vick as being busts for the franchises that drafted them... but they met the criteria.

At tackle you could certainly add two or three more players to the bust list, but I didn't because they all met the starter at year five and beyond criteria. Even if we are generous with QBs and add those borderlines at other positions you still don't see as many players busts as often or as badly IMO. 

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On 1/12/2021 at 4:22 PM, Dr Long Shot said:

I'm focused on all things. I didn't take Super Bowls away just illustrated that the people picking QB top 10 the last 20 years won superbowls 0.7% of the time within a 3-20 year time frame of doing so. Just for context.

But back to bust rates. Let's do what you say and compare apples to apples by position. Let's define a bust as someone who was either benched or out of the league by year 5. Let's also take a look at "home runs" since some posters are saing that Qbs are the better "home run" pick. Let's define these as those that have a Hall of Fame probability score of over 70 points in Pro Football Reference. I'm taking a sample from all top 10 picks from the 2016 season (to have enough time for the bust criteria) to 1998. Here is the breakdown by position:

  • QBs: 30 total picks: 18 Busts. 4 HoFer probables. That's a 60% bust probability vs 13% HoFer 
  • DBs: 10 total picks: 4 Busts, 1 HoFer. - 40% vs 10%.
  • LBrs: 14 total picks: 4 Busts, 4 Hofers - 29% vs 29%
  • Tackles: 25 total picks: 3 Busts, 2 HoFers - 12% vs 8% 
  • RBs: 17 total picks: 3 Busts, 3 HoFers - 18% vs 18%
  • WRs: 26 total picks: 11 Busts, 5 HoFers - 42% vs 19%
  • DTs: 15 total picks: 5 Busts, 1 HoFer - 33% vs 6.6%
  • DEs: 27 total picks: 11 Busts, 3 HoFers - 41% vs 11%

So to sum it up. Yes, QBs bust at an amazingly higher rate in the top 10 than ANY other position. And to top it off it really does not have any higher % of hitting a "home run" than any other pick, with WRs, Rbs, and LBrs all offering a higher chance at a future Hall of Famer. Now, consider we already have one of those extremely unlikely HoFers under contract for 40 million a year at QB... and there is no way to move him without butchering our cap. So how in the world are we going to conclude QB is the "smart" pick when we have holes all up and down the roster outside of QB. In fact Qb was probably strongest performing position last year in the entire team perhaps outside of WR.

BTW here is the complete list of all players for anyone doubting or curious: Bolded are the busts and Bolded in purple are the HoFer probables according to Pro Football Reference.

QBs: Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Luck, Griffin, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Bradford, Mat Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan, Jam Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinert, Alex Smith, Eli, Rivers, Palmer, Leftwich, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith,  PaytonLeaf.

DBs: Jalen Ramsey, Eli Apple, Justin Gilbert, Dee Miliner, Morris Claiborne, Mark Barron, Stephone Gilmore, Pat Peterson, Eric Berry, Joe Haden. 

LBers: Leonard Floyd, Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr, Luke Kuechly Von MillerRolando Mclain, Aaron Curry, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Lavar Arrington, Brian Urlacher, Chris Claiborne.

Tackles: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Greg Robinson, Jake Mathews, Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, Matt Kalil, Tyron Smith, Trent WilliamsRussell Okung, Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, D'Brickashaw Fergusan, Robert Gallery, Jordan Gross, Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Leonard Davis, Chris Samuels, Kyle Turley.

RBs:  Zeke, Gurley, Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller, Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush,  Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams,  LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Fred Taylor.

WRs: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Tavon Austin, Justin Blackmon, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Darius Hayword-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Charles Rodgers, Andre Johnson, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, Torry HoltDavid Boston.

DTs: Marcell Dareus, N'damukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, B.J. Raji, Glenn DorseySedrick Ellis, Amobi Okoye, Leonard Williams, Dewayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims, John Henderson, Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Corey Simon, 

DEs: Joey Bosa, Deforest Buckner, Clowney, Dion Jordan, Ezekial Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Aldon Smith, Tyson Aluolu, Dante FowlerVic Beasley, Tyson Jackson, Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, Mario Williams, Kevin WilliamsTerrell Suggs, Julius Peppers,  Justin Smith, Andre Carter, Jamal Reynolds, Courtney Brown, Andre Wadsworth, Grant Wistrom, Greg Ellis.

You use these figures as if they are a determining factor as to why we should not draft a QB; when in reality these figures suggest that no position will drafted in the first round will help this team out day one. There seems to be a fundamental disconnect for the large majority of the posters on this board. D@mn near all of us when faced with the potential of drafting a QB, would want him to sit behind Matt Ryan to learn.

The question isn’t if Ryan can still go. He’s good enough and is serviceable. The question is will he be good enough and serviceable by the time we have the team built up to where it needs to be. Based on the physical regressions I’ve been seeing, myself and a few others (including pundits/analysts/etc) believe Ryan’s playing time is drawing close to end. Can we win a SB with Ryan? Yes. Is it probable? No.

One thing is for sure is that nearly every team to win a SB had a marquee QB. Drafting one is a conversation that needs to take place, and ultimately will make sense based on our circumstance.

All that being said, while Ryan is HOF worthy, he’s not necessarily HOF bound. In another thread I speculated that if Ryan does get into the HOF, he won’t be a first ballot and it’ll probably get in between 6-8 years, probably closer to the 8 year mark.

Bottomline of all this is you don’t wait to draft a QB when you don’t have one. Drafting a QB, while risky, is necessary for long term success. 

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On 1/10/2021 at 4:36 PM, vanhino said:

You are burden shifting by blaming all of the Falcons' problems on Ryan. It's funny that you fail to acknowledge the ineptness of Koetter's play calling and the defense. If you are truly pro Falcons, you would address these problems, but to you, Ryan is the only problem on this team. Do you honestly think that getting a "better" QB, and THAT alone, will allow the Falcons to win a SB? I sure hope not!

I want the Falcons to win a SB WITH Ryan, not FOR him, and they still can WITH changes. This is the NFL and NOT college football. In college football, it typically takes 3-4 years for a new college coach to turn a bad college football team around. The Falcons were 4-12 and an absolute dumpster fire in 2007. In 2008, with a new GM, HC, and QB, the Falcons were 11-5 and went to the playoffs. Teams can turn things around very quickly in the NFL.

 

I didn't blame any of the Falcons problems on Ryan nor did I burden shift. Ryan is not a problem. His contract is. I blame the front office.

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