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Why Taking a QB at #4 Won’t...and Shouldn’t...Happen


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Posted this on another thread but it was a bit off topic so I'll post it here so it doesn't get lost. Interesting look at all QBs drafted top 10, the ten years before we drafted Matt Ryan and the ten years after we drafted MR. And this is how they compare to Ryan.

Here is every QB drafted in top 10 in the previous 10 drafts before Ryans and their career accomplishments:

  •  Jamarcus Russell(won 7 games)
  • Vince Young(won 31 games)
  •  Matt Leinert (won 8 games)
  •  Alex Smith (27th all time in yards, 18th in wins)
  • Eli Manning (12th in wins, 8th in yards, 9th in Tds)
  • Philip Rivers (8th in wins, 5th in yards, and 5th tds), 
  • Carson Palmer (30th in wins, 14th in yards, 13th in tds)
  • Byron Leftwich (24 career wins)
  • David Carr (23 wins)
  • Joey Harrington (26 wins)
  • Michael Vick (61 wins)
  • Tim Couch (22 wins)
  • Donovan McNabb (19th in wins, 25th in yards, 31st in Tds)
  • Akili Smith (3 wins)
  • Payton Manning (GOAT)
  • Ryan Leaf (Biggest bust of all time)

That's it. In this entire list the ammount of superbowls accumulated is 4. Take away the Manning's and the number is 0.

Ok. Let's compare Ryan to all the QBs drafted a decade after he was drafted from 2009-2018. Out of every single QB drafted in the top 10 during that span, an illustrious list which includes the likes of Blake Bortles, Jamies Winston, Blain Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Carzon Wentz, Josh rosen, Robert Griffith... ok, ok, there's actually good ones there too specifically Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford. and... Goff I guess? Well out of all these players there is exactly 1 (!) who has a higher career AV per season than Ryan's 14.7. (192total AV / 13 season). Out of all these players thare are only 2 that average more wins per season than Ryan's 9. (Josh Allen and Mahomes). That's it. 

Outside of Mahomes the cumulative amount of superbowls won by the aproximately 20 QBs drafted top 10 from 2009-2018 is... *drumroll*: 0. 

So yea. People seem to not understand how extremely unlikely it is that we'll walk away with a future franchise QB with this top 5 pick. Odds we draft a big time bust are high, assuming the last 20+ years are a good barometer the likelyhood is around 60-65%. The odds we draft a QB who will be better than Ryan has been the last 3-4 years is probably lower than that. 

The most shocking thing to me is that the cumulitive amount of superbowls won by the 40-45 Qbs drafted in the top 10 is 5 by three players. 

Edited by Dr Long Shot
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I think our chance of winning one in the next three years is higher with Ryan than a QB we could take this year.  After that you take a QB that gives you a better chance the following five years than

With a better OC and a better defense, why couldn't we??

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On 1/9/2021 at 5:29 PM, dapanch420 said:

picking top 4 in a draft that has 3 qb's with superstar potential, and people want to pass on them? when ours is phyisically declining and in his late 30's. Yall must really hate this team.

The problem is people say we should draft QB X and try and support their argument by trashing Ryan

If we stick at 4th overall I’m taking a QB, but it has nothing to do with Ryan, who is still playing at a very high level.  I love Ryan, but if the team is sold on QB X you draft him.  Not only do you secure your QB of the future, but you gets tons of cap relief in 12 months plus a 1st round pick in the Ryan trade.

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13 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

TL/DR To sum up the thread, its a crap shoot taking a QB.

The same people who wanted Sark gone so bad which brought two swell years of Dirk, are the same that think the grass is greener and moving on from Ryan will be an automatic upgrade.  As much as I hate it, there is less of a chance of the next QB we take being more successful than Ryan than them being less successful than him.  It’s a numbers game.  Could they be better?  Yes.  Will they likely be?  No.  But...arm strength and mobility and stuff.

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12 minutes ago, Rings said:

The same people who wanted Sark gone so bad which brought two swell years of Dirk, are the same that think the grass is greener and moving on from Ryan will be an automatic upgrade.  As much as I hate it, there is less of a chance of the next QB we take being more successful than Ryan than them being less successful than him.  It’s a numbers game.  Could they be better?  Yes.  Will they likely be?  No.  But...arm strength and mobility and stuff.

Exactly. And why be married to the idea of drafting a QB top 5 when QBs drafted later in the draft the last 20 years have had as much or more success, and a much lesser cap hit? There will be many chances at drafting the QB of the future, but when our cap is completely tied to Ryan at least for another 2 seasons it's premature to draft a guy now and tie up even more money in one position. Furthermore even if we "hit" on the QB we'll have 2 years of a light cap hit before we have to give him a mammoth contract all over again. Timing makes no sense to go all in at QB right now. 

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22 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

The problem is people tend to support QB X and try and support their argument by trashing Ryan

If we stick at 4th overall I’m taking a QB, but it has nothing to do with Ryan, who is still playing at a very high level.  I love Ryan, but if the team is sold on QB X you draft him.  Not only do you secure your QB of the future, but you gets tons of cap relief in 12 months plus a 1st round pick in the Ryan trade.

You can be "sold" on any number of QBs and they'll still bust spectacularily. Oakland was "sold" on Jamarcus, Texans were "sold" on Carr, Eagles were super "sold" on Wentz so much so they extended him to a massive deal. 

Are we really sold Zach Wilson and Fields will be the best QB prospects that will come out from here to 2021-2023 hands down no dobut about it? Odds are they won't be. 

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Oh and the last bit I'll add is that the worst thing about the whole situation of going QB is we guarantee that no matter what, one of either 40 million or 10 million dollars of cap will be relegated to the bench next season... It's just so incredibly sub-optimal. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

You can be "sold" on any number of QBs and they'll still bust spectacularily. Oakland was "sold" on Jamarcus, Texans were "sold" on Carr, Eagles were super "sold" on Wentz so much so they extended him to a massive deal. 

Are we really sold Zach Wilson and Fields will be the best QB prospects that will come out from here to 2021-2023 hands down no dobut about it? Odds are they won't be. 

Exactly. The fact that Wilson has people comparing him to Rodgers and Mahomes is setting him up for complete and utter failure. Same for Lawrence and Fields honestly. 

And to add to your point on the Eagles and Wentz, not only did they extend him, they traded a king's ransom to move up and get him. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

You can be "sold" on any number of QBs and they'll still bust spectacularily. Oakland was "sold" on Jamarcus, Texans were "sold" on Carr, Eagles were super "sold" on Wentz so much so they extended him to a massive deal. 

Are we really sold Zach Wilson and Fields will be the best QB prospects that will come out from here to 2021-2023 hands down no dobut about it? Odds are they won't be. 

Prospects bust.  It happens.  Sometimes it’s on the player while just as often it’s on the organization.  
 

I am sold on Wilson but my thoughts are irrelevant.  It’s the new regime that matters and they have to trust their evaluations.  If they don’t do that then we have bigger issues

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3 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

Oh and the last bit I'll add is that the worst thing about the whole situation of going QB is we guarantee that no matter what, one of either 40 million or 10 million dollars of cap will be relegated to the bench next season... It's just so incredibly sub-optimal. 

The entire rookie class will win not count 5- 6 million against our cap.  That’s not really an issue

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Just now, FalconsIn2012 said:

Prospects bust.  It happens.  Sometimes it’s on the player while just as often it’s on the organization.  
 

I am sold on Wilson but my thoughts are irrelevant.  It’s the new regime that matters and they have to trust their evaluations.  If they don’t do that then we have bigger issues

Of course prospects bust but if our QB busts we will have wasted a #4 pick on someone that will give us absolutely nothing and eat up the most cap room. We can draft Surtain and even if he busts we can still trot him out there and get some production without nuking our chances at winning.

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1 minute ago, Dr Long Shot said:

Of course prospects bust but if our QB busts we will have wasted a #4 pick on someone that will give us absolutely nothing and eat up the most cap room. We can draft Surtain and even if he busts we can still trot him out there and get some production without nuking our chances at winning.

Ok, let’s try it this wa:

If our pick at #4 busts it doesn’t matter if we went QB or positional player;

But if the pick is a home run, would you rather it be a QB or Positional player.

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2 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

Of course it's an issue lol. You want 6 million out there on the field or the bench? If you start him than you put Ryan's 40 million *** on the bench. 

That’s the entire rookie class counting 6 mill, not  just one player.  For perspective, last years entire class counted 2.8 million against the cap

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Just now, Macknsweetjones said:

None issue ..yall creating a narrative just to negate the idea of drafting a qb 

Thats why I hope Justin Fields and his agent stay as far away from the Falcons as possible.  The guy is too good to be put in that kind of polarizing situation. 

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3 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I see comparing the top 10 QBs taken within a certain time period. To be fair I think this should be done for all positions to show how volatile the draft can be.  

I have done it in the past and the bust rate (out of the league within 5 season) in the first round is around 35%, lower in the top 5 probably. Odds of getting a pro bowler is around 30% as well. Much higher than QB.

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4 minutes ago, Spts1 said:

Thats why I hope Justin Fields and his agent stay as far away from the Falcons as possible.  The guy is too good to be put in that kind of polarizing situation. 

Sounds like society.  And honestly, good point.  

I lived in San Antonio years ago.  The city was split in taking Sean Elliot or Danny Ferry.  The team took Elliot.  But the division spilled over constantly and I remember Elliot getting really irritated about it.  Division is never good, polarizing division is even worse.

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2 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

Sounds like society.  And honestly, good point.  

I lived in San Antonio years ago.  The city was split in taking Sean Elliot or Danny Ferry.  The team took Elliot.  But the division spilled over constantly and I remember Elliot getting really irritated about it.  Division is never good, polarizing division is even worse.

Bingo. Thanks for being honest.

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39 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

It's like doubling down on an 8 when the dealer's got a 10. Especially when you've got all your money tied up at the same position already.

Right. It's a total non-starter as an idea unless we can trade Ryan anyway, something that's not even possible until after the currently scheduled draft date.

Also, we just scored 25 points per game with our former MVP QB. We won four games. It's the other side of the ball where we need to focus. A rookie QB coming in will make the situation worse, not better...through no fault of their own.

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23 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

That’s the entire rookie class counting 6 mill, not  just one player.  For perspective, last years entire class counted 2.8 million against the cap

Joe Burrow alone counted $6.5 million against the cap in 2020. Andrew Thomas, the #4 pick, counted $5.881 million, and a QB would cost more than that.

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24 minutes ago, Spts1 said:

Thats why I hope Justin Fields and his agent stay as far away from the Falcons as possible.  The guy is too good to be put in that kind of polarizing situation. 

He needs to pray a team like SF trades up.

If he ends up in Jacksonville, New York or Atlanta the poor kid is gonna be ruined.

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