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Projecting “trade down” partners - using draft values


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With us sitting at the 4th pick there will be 2 of 3 early first round projected QBs available. Two players between either Justin Fields, Zach Wilson & Trey Lance will be available at #4. Lets tak

We don’t trade and we stay put. One of those guys is there BAM!  You have your starting QB for the next 10-15 years.  

The team to watch is the Dolphins.   Sitting on that #3 with a playoff roster already in place.  They are a textbook case for trading down.  Stockpile depth and make a run.  Heck the Jets might trade

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1 hour ago, xSICKxWITHxITx said:

I explained it to you or someone in another thread.

Better playcalling may elevate your offensive line by a few slots but it’s not going to take your offensive line from bottom of the league to the top 10, let’s be realistic here. 

Edited by matty72780
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Points are fine when it's a trade for any position other than some team needing a QB. You absolutely rob them of more picks because everybody knows QB is the hardest position to find a guy.

Beyond that, you try to trade with an AFC team, in case that QB becomes good. No need to have competition in your own conference for playoff spots. 

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11 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I think the 49ers will trade their 12th overall, 2nd round pick (44th Overall) in 2021 and 1st in 2022 for our 4th overall.  They will select Zach Wilson.  
 

Maybe we can get Trey Lance at 12th

the broncos would probably get him though

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11 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

If Parsons, Sewell, or Fields is there, take em. Otherwise (and maybe even then), trade into that 6/7/8 range but not much further down. You wanna get an impact playmaker with a spot this high.

nobody needs a qb in that range tho 

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47 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

This is an intriguing topic.  Trade down fascinates me.  As a lay person when speaking of college football, is this a draft deep in all respects where trading down would be a benefit?  

Heading into the 2020 draft, the consensus was that 2021 dwarfed it in talent.

However, COVID, opt outs, and the weirdness of shortened seasons will make draft evaluations extremely challenging. If someone shows up at the combine and bombs after skipping the season, they may fall from top 15 all the way to the fifth or sixth round.

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12 hours ago, matty72780 said:

With us sitting at the 4th pick there will be 2 of 3 early first round projected QBs available. Two players between either Justin Fields, Zach Wilson & Trey Lance will be available at #4. Lets take a look at the draft pick value chart and show what this would yield us at a minimum (based on the assumption that the value chart is followed). https://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

The 4th overall pick according to the “value chart” is worth 1800 points. 

Who’s willing to trade and may be interested in a QB?

Dallas Cowboys #10 (1300 points)Jerry Jones refused to pay Dak and now after the brutal injury the Cowboys could be a good partner to trade down with. What we’d get according to draft values: 10th and the Cowboys 2nd round pick (480 points), we could probably get more from them but this is the “minimum return”

49ers #12 (1200 points): Shanny needs a QB to build his franchise around. What we’d get: 12th pick, and the 49ers 2nd (460) & 3rd (210)

Patriots #15 (1050 points): Bill B can’t take losing with Cam Newton and watching his old QB play well for another franchise, the Pats will be aggressive here. What we’d get: 15th pick, their 2nd (430) round picks (this years and next)

The Eagles (6th), Lions (7th), and Panthers (8th) aren’t necessarily targeting QBs but you can’t put it past any of them that they’d want to draft a Trey Lance or Zach Wilson since they all have question marks at QB - whether it’s the aging Stafford, the unproven Hurts or the underperforming Teddy B there is a risk any of them could take a “franchise QB”. If the Cowboys, 49ers, & Pats are interested in a QB they will want to leapfrog those teams making us the most likely partner for them to trade up with and “land their QB”. 
 

Could be pretty interesting here folks but we should have lots of leverage at the #4 pick this year. 

No to this whole thread. Period.

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35 minutes ago, jidady said:

Heading into the 2020 draft, the consensus was that 2021 dwarfed it in talent.

However, COVID, opt outs, and the weirdness of shortened seasons will make draft evaluations extremely challenging. If someone shows up at the combine and bombs after skipping the season, they may fall from top 15 all the way to the fifth or sixth round.

That could be a good thing for teams, terrible for the player...

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13 hours ago, Godzilla1985 said:

We don’t trade and we stay put. One of those guys is there BAM!  You have your starting QB for the next 10-15 years.  

Washington and Philly thought the same thing with Haskins and Hurts. Browns thought the same thing about Manzel.  Stop assuming we have a starting QB for the next 10-15 years.  We have a possible candidate but nothing is guaranteed.

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3 minutes ago, coastiemike said:

Washington and Philly thought the same thing with Haskins and Hurts. Browns thought the same thing about Manzel.  Stop assuming we have a starting QB for the next 10-15 years.  We have a possible candidate but nothing is guaranteed.

What? Hurts has started all of 4 games. Why are you even comparing him to Haskins or Manziel LOL. Not to mention Hurts was a late 2nd round pick.

In his 4 starts, he finished with 400+ yards in 2 of them while having 8 TDs to 3 INTs. He stunk against Washington's godly D-Line but played good in the other 3 games.
 

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The best move in my eye, as of right now today, would be to trade down. Loading up on 2022 picks is probably a better plan for the future. The QB class is deeper. Stingley would be perfect on the other side of the field with AJ. Kayvon Thibodeaux will probably be the top EDGE guy, but the class in general will be a deep one with others like Karlaftis from Purdue, Zach Harrison, and Nolan Smith.

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I want a year where we have more picks than there are rounds for once. Banking on 6 picks to fill 6 holes isnt working. Trade down, add players and increase the chances of finding several starters that will benefit this team. You may be able to swing rouseau (miami de that opted out), trask, and najee harris before the end of round 2. Then you would have the preseason top de on the board, a qb that i believe is being slept on, and a game changing back from 15 miles from my house. 😜

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18 hours ago, KRUNKuno said:

F points.  You got me F’d up if you think I’m trading out of pick 4 just to pick up a 2nd round pick. 

Minimum requirement for a team wanting to trade up into the top five for a QB at our original pick: one 2021 secound round, one 2022 first round pick, of course in addition to swapping whatever 2021 first round pick they may have.

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12 hours ago, FalconOdense said:

A good chance the number 1 defensive prospect will be waiting for us at 4

This is where I'm am. IF you don't take the BPA on your board at 4...you better be getting a fortune to fall into the 10-20 range...and I'm talking future 1sts and 2nds/3rds this year. Fleece them if you fall more than 5 spots.

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10 hours ago, coastiemike said:

Washington and Philly thought the same thing with Haskins and Hurts. Browns thought the same thing about Manzel.  Stop assuming we have a starting QB for the next 10-15 years.  We have a possible candidate but nothing is guaranteed.

Manziel was the 22nd pick, Haskins was the 16th, Hurts was 53rd. This may be the dumbest comparison I’ve ever seen. 
 

There is a HUGE drop off when it comes to middle to late first round talent compared to a top 4 pick. Sure nothing is guaranteed but we will more than likely have a much worse pick than 4 in 2022 (even if we finish 7-9 we will be in the middle rounds). Wouldn’t it make sense to take a chance on a top tier QB and get a Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen type player (all drafted within top 7) to be our future? 

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2 hours ago, matty72780 said:

Manziel was the 22nd pick, Haskins was the 16th, Hurts was 53rd. This may be the dumbest comparison I’ve ever seen. 
 

There is a HUGE drop off when it comes to middle to late first round talent compared to a top 4 pick. Sure nothing is guaranteed but we will more than likely have a much worse pick than 4 in 2022 (even if we finish 7-9 we will be in the middle rounds). Wouldn’t it make sense to take a chance on a top tier QB and get a Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen type player (all drafted within top 7) to be our future? 

Ok then JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf. Tim Couch. Akili Smith.  Heath Shuler. Art Schlichter. Rick Mirer. Jack Thompson. Mike Phipps. Joey Harrington.  David Carr.  Better? All drafted in top 3.

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