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Projecting “trade down” partners - using draft values


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4 minutes ago, Rings said:

Don’t use jimmy johnsons trade chart, it’s decades old and isn’t realistic anymore.

It depends on the team. Some use the Harvard chart, which people can look at here:

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/pages/the-harvard-trade-value-chart

There's a third one that's less popular, and most teams have quants who have modified the chart to fit the team's current needs. However, the old Jimmy Johnson chart works well as a baseline for setting expectations.

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With us sitting at the 4th pick there will be 2 of 3 early first round projected QBs available. Two players between either Justin Fields, Zach Wilson & Trey Lance will be available at #4. Lets tak

We don’t trade and we stay put. One of those guys is there BAM!  You have your starting QB for the next 10-15 years.  

The team to watch is the Dolphins.   Sitting on that #3 with a playoff roster already in place.  They are a textbook case for trading down.  Stockpile depth and make a run.  Heck the Jets might trade

44 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I think the 49ers will trade their 12th overall, 2nd round pick (44th Overall) in 2021 and 1st in 2022 for our 4th overall.  They will select Zach Wilson.  
 

Maybe we can get Trey Lance at 12th

If we do that... then grab Surtain or Caleb keep building the D... you can get a QB next year with 2 first rounders..

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40 minutes ago, Ghosts of Glanville said:

The team to watch is the Dolphins.   Sitting on that #3 with a playoff roster already in place.  They are a textbook case for trading down.  Stockpile depth and make a run.  Heck the Jets might trade down too if they decide to stick with Darnold.  
 

This could be a wild year in the top 5

Sewell there at #3 is perfect for them...and Tua.

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6 minutes ago, jidady said:

It depends on the team. Some use the Harvard chart, which people can look at here:

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/pages/the-harvard-trade-value-chart

There's a third one that's less popular, and most teams have quants who have modified the chart to fit the team's current needs. However, the old Jimmy Johnson chart works well as a baseline for setting expectations.

I study and compile every trade every year, jimmy johnsons is the least accurate.  Rich hills is the most, as his gets updated.  It is going to change with value in the top 3 depending on quality of QBs teams want to trade up for, but holistically Johnson’s isn’t close anymore.

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Just now, Rings said:

I study and compile every trade every year, jimmy johnsons is the least accurate.  Rich hills is the most.  

I feel like we've talked about this before. Last time, I pointed out that coincidence plays a part. Sometimes, a team's need combined with unusual circumstances will make one chart look viable than the rest. But that's the third one I was referencing. If people reading the thread are interested, you can find it here:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

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Just now, jidady said:

I feel like we've talked about this before. Last time, I pointed out that coincidence plays a part. Sometimes, a team's need combined with unusual circumstances will make one chart look viable than the rest. But that's the third one I was referencing. If people reading the thread are interested, you can find it here:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

Quality of QBs available at the top will always swing charts, but outside of top three that can swing, Hill’s matches up the best.  I use his value now exclusively in my draft program because of monitoring it over the last seven years.  

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26 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

F points.  You got me F’d up if you think I’m trading out of pick 4 just to pick up a 2nd round pick. 

A second round pick should be a high-level starter in this league. Meanwhile, top 10 picks are as likely to bust as to ball out. Getting a free second round pick for dropping a couple of spots in the first round is our dream scenario for the 2021 draft.

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With our luck whoever we trade with with have a deep playoff run and we will have another 6 win season and have a mid and late first round pick. 

We are not bad enough to suck this bad next year, but I don't see a playoff team either. I would just take the bpa this year.

The reality is we have had Matt and Julio and all we do is get close. We couldn't win in the playoffs. Now we can't even get to the playoffs.

 

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7 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

If Parsons, Sewell, or Fields is there, take em. Otherwise (and maybe even then), trade into that 6/7/8 range but not much further down. You wanna get an impact playmaker with a spot this high.

I say no to Sewell. I get that he’s supposed to be the next best LT, but Jake is fine. So doesn’t make us better to me. At 4 you want a real difference maker or QB.

I feel like QB is a waste also, because Matt easily has 2-5 years left. I’m okay drafting a QB late 1st, 2nd or 3 to learn. If we took a QB at 4 he has to be a great QB the next 10-15 years and if there is a guy like that then take him.

 

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6 hours ago, FalconsAirMiles said:

I dont see anyone trading up unless teams fall in love with Zach Wilson that his stock values trends up and which case the Falcons should draft him. Otherwise in that scenario a team trades with the Dolphins to get Zach Wilson at 3.

Zach Wilson threw for 425 yards, 3 TDs with a QB rating of 210.6 in the bowl BYU just won. Also, don’t forget about Trey Lance, he’s also projected as a top 10 pick. Those three teams I mentioned need a QB bad, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens. 

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8 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

If Parsons, Sewell, or Fields is there, take em. Otherwise (and maybe even then), trade into that 6/7/8 range but not much further down. You wanna get an impact playmaker with a spot this high.

Agreed.

Just be smart and strategic, not starry-eyed and emotional like in here. :ninja:

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35 minutes ago, xSICKxWITHxITx said:

I say no to Sewell. I get that he’s supposed to be the next best LT, but Jake is fine. So doesn’t make us better to me. At 4 you want a real difference maker or QB.

I feel like QB is a waste also, because Matt easily has 2-5 years left. I’m okay drafting a QB late 1st, 2nd or 3 to learn. If we took a QB at 4 he has to be a great QB the next 10-15 years and if there is a guy like that then take him.

 

24. ATLANTA FALCONS

The story of the 2020 Falcons will start with the offensive line after they posted the worst pass-blocking (67.2) and run-blocking (58.2) grades of the Matt Ryan era.
 

I wouldn’t call that “fine”. The Dolphins ranked dead last so with them being 3rd Sewell is gone. 

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1 minute ago, matty72780 said:

24. ATLANTA FALCONS

The story of the 2020 Falcons will start with the offensive line after they posted the worst pass-blocking (67.2) and run-blocking (58.2) grades of the Matt Ryan era.
 

I wouldn’t call that “fine”. The Dolphins ranked dead last so with them being 3rd Sewell is gone. 

I explained it to you or someone in another thread.

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6 hours ago, falconfanEST1989 said:

There is no way in **** we trade back to 10th 12th or 15th and not get their 2022 1st pick 

Like I said, this is based solely off of the draft pick evaluation numbers as a “minimum rate of return”, this does not take into account the desire for one of those teams to move up and what they’re willing to give as that’s much harder to predict. This is based off of the minimum we’d receive based on the numbers NFL teams use to value draft positions. 

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8 hours ago, Ghosts of Glanville said:

I hope you’re right and they lock in on Sewell.  My great fear is Carolina leapfrogging us to nab their QB of the future.   It may depend on how the other LTs grade out.  As long as Sewell remains well ahead of the others they probably stay put.  

I would love for us to draft Sewell. 

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8 minutes ago, abcranford2 said:

I would love for us to draft Sewell. 

Me too but Miami’s oline ranked 32nd, they just drafted their franchise QB in Tua last year, and now they’re going to have a crack at the best LT to come out of college in the last decade. Sewell is gone @ 3 to Miami, without a doubt. Miami has the 3rd, 18th, 35th and 50th pick, they aren’t trading back with anyone. They went 10-6, they don’t need a rebuild, Sewell is their guy. 

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9 hours ago, Ghosts of Glanville said:

The team to watch is the Dolphins.   Sitting on that #3 with a playoff roster already in place.  They are a textbook case for trading down.  Stockpile depth and make a run.  Heck the Jets might trade down too if they decide to stick with Darnold.  
 

This could be a wild year in the top 5

Unfortunately, this is very likely.  I think that after more scrutiny, Sewell will not be viewed in the same realm as a generational LT, so the Dolphins may be willing to trade down, pick up an OT later and add even more draft picks.    

I think the Dolphins will trade down with a QB-needy team.  

We might be in a spot to trade down, if there are teams desperate for the best WR.  Chase looks like the real deal and could be the top WR in the league five years out of the next ten.  If that happens, we will have to settle for less in draft picks.    

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