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Projecting “trade down” partners - using draft values


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With us sitting at the 4th pick there will be 2 of 3 early first round projected QBs available. Two players between either Justin Fields, Zach Wilson & Trey Lance will be available at #4. Lets take a look at the draft pick value chart and show what this would yield us at a minimum (based on the assumption that the value chart is followed). https://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

The 4th overall pick according to the “value chart” is worth 1800 points. 

Who’s willing to trade and may be interested in a QB?

Dallas Cowboys #10 (1300 points)Jerry Jones refused to pay Dak and now after the brutal injury the Cowboys could be a good partner to trade down with. What we’d get according to draft values: 10th and the Cowboys 2nd round pick (480 points), we could probably get more from them but this is the “minimum return”

49ers #12 (1200 points): Shanny needs a QB to build his franchise around. What we’d get: 12th pick, and the 49ers 2nd (460) & 3rd (210)

Patriots #15 (1050 points): Bill B can’t take losing with Cam Newton and watching his old QB play well for another franchise, the Pats will be aggressive here. What we’d get: 15th pick, their 2nd (430) round picks (this years and next)

The Eagles (6th), Lions (7th), and Panthers (8th) aren’t necessarily targeting QBs but you can’t put it past any of them that they’d want to draft a Trey Lance or Zach Wilson since they all have question marks at QB - whether it’s the aging Stafford, the unproven Hurts or the underperforming Teddy B there is a risk any of them could take a “franchise QB”. If the Cowboys, 49ers, & Pats are interested in a QB they will want to leapfrog those teams making us the most likely partner for them to trade up with and “land their QB”. 
 

Could be pretty interesting here folks but we should have lots of leverage at the #4 pick this year. 

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The team to watch is the Dolphins.   Sitting on that #3 with a playoff roster already in place.  They are a textbook case for trading down.  Stockpile depth and make a run.  Heck the Jets might trade down too if they decide to stick with Darnold.  
 

This could be a wild year in the top 5

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2 minutes ago, Godzilla1985 said:

We don’t trade and we stay put. One of those guys is there BAM!  You have your starting QB for the next 10-15 years.  

Possibly, but we will have Matt Ryan as our QB next year (45 million guaranteed with a cap hit of 49 million if we cut/trade). I do think with the right OC and a better defense Matt Ryan could be a solid QB for us for the next 3 years. 

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2 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

Possibly, but we will have Matt Ryan as our QB next year (45 million guaranteed with a cap hit of 49 million if we cut/trade). I do think with the right OC and a better defense Matt Ryan could be a solid QB for us for the next 3 years. 

Maybe. We can still get the QB and have him being groomed under Ryan.  

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1 minute ago, Ghosts of Glanville said:

The team to watch is the Dolphins.   Sitting on that #3 with a playoff roster already in place.  They are a textbook case for trading down.  Stockpile depth and make a run.  Heck the Jets might trade down too if they decide to stick with Darnold.  
 

This could be a wild year in the top 5

I agree that the Jets may trade down if the new coach feels comfortable with Darnold. I'll reiterate that I don't see any reason for the Dolphins or Jags to trade down, though. Miami picks at #18, #35, and #50 after #3. Unless we're talking multiple first round picks in future drafts, they don't gain enough to move back.

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1 minute ago, Ghosts of Glanville said:

The team to watch is the Dolphins.   Sitting on that #3 with a playoff roster already in place.  They are a textbook case for trading down.  Stockpile depth and make a run.  Heck the Jets might trade down too if they decide to stick with Darnold.  
 

This could be a wild year in the top 5

Yeah you’re right but they will more than likely draft Sewell. They need a LT to protect their franchise QB in Tua and Sewell is projected as one of the best LT’s to come into the NFL in 10+ years. Especially because it’s a pick they got from the Texans, it makes way to much sense for them to take Sewell, which is the smarter decision for them since they won 10 games this year and don’t need a rebuild. 

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3 minutes ago, jidady said:

I agree that the Jets may trade down if the new coach feels comfortable with Darnold. I'll reiterate that I don't see any reason for the Dolphins or Jags to trade down, though. Miami picks at #18, #35, and #50 after #3. Unless we're talking multiple first round picks in future drafts, they don't gain enough to move back.

Yeah, dolphins won 10 games and barely misses the playoffs. They don’t need to stockpile picks. They’re gonna take Sewell to protect their franchise QB, Tua. Darnold is going into the final year of his rookie contract and will only make $900k (“only” haha, but that’s cheap for a QB). They are more than likely moving on from Darnold and will probably take Fields and try to trade Darnold while he still is under contract. 

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2 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

Yeah you’re right but they will more than likely draft Sewell. They need a LT to protect their franchise QB in Tua and Sewell is projected as one of the best LT’s to come into the NFL in 10+ years. Especially because it’s a pick they got from the Texans, it makes way to much sense for them to take Sewell, which is the smarter decision for them since they won 10 games this year and don’t need a rebuild. 

I hope you’re right and they lock in on Sewell.  My great fear is Carolina leapfrogging us to nab their QB of the future.   It may depend on how the other LTs grade out.  As long as Sewell remains well ahead of the others they probably stay put.  

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2 minutes ago, Ghosts of Glanville said:

I hope you’re right and they lock in on Sewell.  My great fear is Carolina leapfrogging us to nab their QB of the future.   It may depend on how the other LTs grade out.  As long as Sewell remains well ahead of the others they probably stay put.  

Sewell is the #2 prospect in the entire draft behind Lawrence, however the Jets need a QB more than an LT, so this is why Sewell should fall in Miami’s lap which meets their top need. 

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12 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I think the 49ers will trade their 12th overall, 2nd round pick (44th Overall) in 2021 and 1st in 2022 for our 4th overall.  They will select Zach Wilson.  
 

Maybe we can get Trey Lance at 12th

If they want him that bad I don't see why we couldn't also get a 4th rounder this year and even an additional pick next year on top of the 1st. That I would do, but for only a 2nd and future 1st? Maybe if we have no desire to draft a QB but I find that hard to believe. I am a Lance fan but hoping he's there at 12 is risky if that was the plan

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

there's gotta be a gm on a hot seat somewhere depserate to make a splash that would give up 2 firsts and 2 seconds for that pick.

With all of the QB hype this feels like a year that some team is gonna crack and overpay severely to move up.   It all comes down to what the new regime decides.  If our guy is gone by 4 we could still make out like bandits

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Just now, Foo Falcors said:

If they want him that bad I don't see why we couldn't also get a 4th rounder this year and even an additional pick next year on top of the 1st. That I would do, but for only a 2nd and future 1st? Maybe if we have no desire to draft a QB but I find that hard to believe. I am a Lance fan but hoping he's there at 12 is risky if that was the plan

This assessment was done based on the point value of picks. It didn’t factor in the extra teams would give up to move into their spot to get their guy. I’m sure people will give up more than mentioned but this was based on a “minimum return”. 

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3 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

This assessment was done based on the point value of picks. It didn’t factor in the extra teams would give up to move into their spot to get their guy. I’m sure people will give up more than mentioned but this was based on a “minimum return”. 

I understand that. I'm just saying realistically we can definitely get more and likely would. Its better to think realistically

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5 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

F points.  You got me F’d up if you think I’m trading out of pick 4 just to pick up a 2nd round pick. 

The likelihood is that we’d get substantially more, but this is the “bare minimum” based on the scoring system the NFL uses when valuing draft picks. This didn’t factor in the leverage we have based on a team wanting what we have because that’s more speculative than anything else. 

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39 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

With us sitting at the 4th pick there will be 2 of 3 early first round projected QBs available. Two players between either Justin Fields, Zach Wilson & Trey Lance will be available at #4. Lets take a look at the draft pick value chart and show what this would yield us at a minimum (based on the assumption that the value chart is followed). https://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

The 4th overall pick according to the “value chart” is worth 1800 points. 

Who’s willing to trade and may be interested in a QB?

Dallas Cowboys #10 (1300 points)Jerry Jones refused to pay Dak and now after the brutal injury the Cowboys could be a good partner to trade down with. What we’d get according to draft values: 10th and the Cowboys 2nd round pick (480 points), we could probably get more from them but this is the “minimum return”

49ers #12 (1200 points): Shanny needs a QB to build his franchise around. What we’d get: 12th pick, and the 49ers 2nd (460) & 3rd (210)

Patriots #15 (1050 points): Bill B can’t take losing with Cam Newton and watching his old QB play well for another franchise, the Pats will be aggressive here. What we’d get: 15th pick, their 2nd (430) round picks (this years and next)

The Eagles (6th), Lions (7th), and Panthers (8th) aren’t necessarily targeting QBs but you can’t put it past any of them that they’d want to draft a Trey Lance or Zach Wilson since they all have question marks at QB - whether it’s the aging Stafford, the unproven Hurts or the underperforming Teddy B there is a risk any of them could take a “franchise QB”. If the Cowboys, 49ers, & Pats are interested in a QB they will want to leapfrog those teams making us the most likely partner for them to trade up with and “land their QB”. 
 

Could be pretty interesting here folks but we should have lots of leverage at the #4 pick this year. 

Don’t use jimmy johnsons trade chart, it’s decades old and isn’t realistic anymore.

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19 minutes ago, matty72780 said:

This assessment was done based on the point value of picks. It didn’t factor in the extra teams would give up to move into their spot to get their guy. I’m sure people will give up more than mentioned but this was based on a “minimum return”. 

It was a really good and well thought out post. It's the kind I'd like to see more on this board as we enter draft season. Well done.

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