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First attempt at a mocks for 2021


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WIthout knowing a whole lot about the prospects yet (I don't usually start reading up/watching film until the offseason), this is what I came up with on my first mock for the 2021 draft.  Would you be happy if things shook out like this on draft day?  In both cases I did some trading around. 

Don't blame me for who was available.. this is using the PFN mock draft machine.  

 

1st:

 

 

 

image.png

 

 

2021-1-2-B.JPG

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35 minutes ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

For the 1st two.  Hard to pass up a future replacement for Ryan when this high in the draft.

Using PFF Grades, Top QBs in 2020 Drafted Pick 5 or Earlier

11) Ryan
12) Murray
13) Stafford
14) Mayfield
17) Rivers
19) Burrow
23) Goff
24) Newton
31) Alex Smith
32) Wentz
33) Tua
34) Trubisky
36) Darnold

Not a single top 10 QB this year was taken top five in their draft.  Trade back, get more picks, then take one.  That way if you miss you still have something to show for it.

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1 hour ago, RYNE said:

Nixon is really good. I am an Iowa fan. He’s always disruptive. 
 

And Najee Harris is my guy in this draft 

This video shows you the type of player and character he has. What type of defense to Iowa run?

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1 minute ago, Rings said:

Using PFF Grades, Top QBs in 2020 Drafted Pick 5 or Earlier

11) Ryan
12) Murray
13) Stafford
14) Mayfield
17) Rivers
19) Burrow
23) Goff
24) Newton
31) Alex Smith
32) Wentz
33) Tua
34) Trubisky
36) Darnold

Not a single top 10 QB this year was taken top five in their draft.  Trade back, get more picks, then take one.  That way if you miss you still have something to show for it.

I'm leaning this way myself.  Old school I am, but a defense should be able to get to the QB and play sound defense.  The offense should be able to impose it's will on the opponent.  And that starts with a warrior line and brutal running game.  

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

Using PFF Grades, Top QBs in 2020 Drafted Pick 5 or Earlier

11) Ryan
12) Murray
13) Stafford
14) Mayfield
17) Rivers
19) Burrow
23) Goff
24) Newton
31) Alex Smith
32) Wentz
33) Tua
34) Trubisky
36) Darnold

Not a single top 10 QB this year was taken top five in their draft.  Trade back, get more picks, then take one.  That way if you miss you still have something to show for it.

At least to me, that's more symptomatic of top 5 picks going to teams that are already bad. And in cases where that isn't true, the teams that drafted the top 5 QBs you're talking about are far better, to the point they either had playoff success or were outright league MVPs. This analysis just doesn't make much sense tbh. 

Regarding the drafts - I dig the first one depending on the FA period, not a huge fan of the 2nd. 

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7 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

At least to me, that's more symptomatic of top 5 picks going to teams that are already bad. And in cases where that isn't true, the teams that drafted the top 5 QBs you're talking about are far better, to the point they either had playoff success or were outright league MVPs. This analysis just doesn't make much sense tbh. 

Regarding the drafts - I dig the first one depending on the FA period, not a huge fan of the 2nd. 

Correct.  Point is scheme matters a ton, taking someone in the top five doesn’t guarantee success.  So trade back, get more picks, still take a qb in round one if you desire.  But we never pick this high, let’s get more than just a backup qb for the next year or two out of it.  I hate taking running backs high.  What if you traded back and got the next qb on your list and a second round pick that you used to take a stud rb that everyone wants?  But still have your current 2nd to take the top pass rusher, safety or cb?  I’d feel much better about that.

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I like every pick you made except the Lance pick in both drafts.  I have no interest in him in the top 20 picks and have him as my 6th best QB in this draft around the mac jones and kyle trask area but a little behind those 2.    Any of Lawrence, Fields, and Wilson im good on in the top 10 and am cool with a QB that early. 

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After hurdling over that Notre Dame player Najee Harris is more of a hot comodity now than a week ago, so I like that pick.

I went crazy moving down in a mock draft ended up with only 3 picks between 50 and 100.

Alijah Vera-Tucker g

Elijah Molden nb

Myjai Sanders edge

Also picked up 3 rd 1 picks

                          4 rd 2 picks

                          3 rd 3 picks

Not realistic but a bit of fun wasting my own time.

 

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9 hours ago, Rings said:

Using PFF Grades, Top QBs in 2020 Drafted Pick 5 or Earlier

11) Ryan
12) Murray
13) Stafford
14) Mayfield
17) Rivers
19) Burrow
23) Goff
24) Newton
31) Alex Smith
32) Wentz
33) Tua
34) Trubisky
36) Darnold

Not a single top 10 QB this year was taken top five in their draft.  Trade back, get more picks, then take one.  That way if you miss you still have something to show for it.

So you're really gonna use the when they were drafted excuse for this one? 

Who won it all last season?

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12 hours ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

WIthout knowing a whole lot about the prospects yet (I don't usually start reading up/watching film until the offseason), this is what I came up with on my first mock for the 2021 draft.  Would you be happy if things shook out like this on draft day?  In both cases I did some trading around. 

Don't blame me for who was available.. this is using the PFN mock draft machine.  

 

1st:

 

 

 

image.png

 

 

2021-1-2-B.JPG

A lot of offense, a couple corners and no defensive line guys except some mid-round stiffs.
 

Always suspected TD lurked around in here. :ninja:

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1 hour ago, Faithful Falcon said:

So you're really gonna use the when they were drafted excuse for this one? 

Who won it all last season?

Mahomes, who was drafted 10th overall.  The only QB taken in the top five in that draft...Trubisky.  Thanks for further proving my point.

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8 minutes ago, Rings said:

Mahomes, who was drafted 10th overall.  The only QB taken in the top five in that draft...Trubisky.  Thanks for further proving my point.

You haven't proven 💩. Tribisky was s mistake from the start. Ryan is a part of our bad team. He has had success. Mayfield is doing well this year. Bad team gets the top picks. No sense in talking down on picking a QB.

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2 hours ago, Faithful Falcon said:

You haven't proven 💩. Tribisky was s mistake from the start. Ryan is a part of our bad team. He has had success. Mayfield is doing well this year. Bad team gets the top picks. No sense in talking down on picking a QB.

Mayfield has had a handful of good games but Ryan is playing better than him.  Funny how you can skew the perception of those two because of how the teams around them are performing and wins/losses.  

How many middle of the pack teams have traded up into the top 5 to get a QB and then the QBs aren’t good?  Chiefs traded up to 10 for Mahomes, Houston traded up for Watson at 12, Baltimore traded up to 32 for Lamar.  My point is you don’t need to be top 5 to get your guy, in fact a lot of top five QBs haven’t panned out.  I’m not saying don’t take one in round one, I’m saying you don’t need to be top five to get the best QB.  In fact it doesn’t even increase the likelihood of them being good.  I’m saying trade down, get more picks and take your guy in the middle of the first if that’s what you want.

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8 minutes ago, Rings said:

Mayfield has had a handful of good games but Ryan is playing better than him.  Funny how you can skew the perception of those two because of how the teams around them are performing and wins/losses.  

How many middle of the pack teams have traded up into the top 5 to get a QB and then the QBs aren’t good?  Chiefs traded up to 10 for Mahomes, Houston traded up for Watson at 12, Baltimore traded up to 32 for Lamar.  My point is you don’t need to be top 5 to get your guy, in fact a lot of top five QBs haven’t panned out.  I’m not saying don’t take one in round one, I’m saying you don’t need to be top five to get the best QB.  In fact it doesn’t even increase the likelihood of them being good.  I’m saying trade down, get more picks and take your guy in the middle of the first if that’s what you want.

Your point is moot. All of those guys could have easily been a top 5 pick. People said the same thing about the 2008 NFL Draft.

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17 minutes ago, Faithful Falcon said:

Your point is moot. All of those guys could have easily been a top 5 pick. People said the same thing about the 2008 NFL Draft.

They could have, but they weren’t, which is why the point is 100% relevant.  People seem to think you HAVE to be in the top 5 to get a franchise QB, and history not only tells us you don’t have to, it tells you it doesn’t even increase your chances.

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5 minutes ago, Rings said:

They could have, but they weren’t, which is why the point is 100% relevant.  People seem to think you HAVE to be in the top 5 to get a franchise QB, and history not only tells us you don’t have to, it tells you it doesn’t even increase your chances.

History also should not determine what decisions you make in the draft. Hindsight is good, but Foresight is better.

Ryan is still good, but it's time to draft his replacement. If you have the chance to pick one of the top guys up, you pull the trigger. 

The other side of that is, other teams like the Saints, Niners, Patriots, Bucs, Colts, and Washington also may be interested in those QBs.

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16 hours ago, Herr Doktor said:

I'm leaning this way myself.  Old school I am, but a defense should be able to get to the QB and play sound defense.  The offense should be able to impose it's will on the opponent.  And that starts with a warrior line and brutal running game.  

A good running game would cure so many ills on this football team.   

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10 hours ago, Faithful Falcon said:

History also should not determine what decisions you make in the draft. Hindsight is good, but Foresight is better.

Ryan is still good, but it's time to draft his replacement. If you have the chance to pick one of the top guys up, you pull the trigger. 

The other side of that is, other teams like the Saints, Niners, Patriots, Bucs, Colts, and Washington also may be interested in those QBs.

We can agree to disagree then.  History should have a large impact on what you do in the future, not saying history from the 60s, but history in the last 5-10 years.  Absolutely.  Experience is a thing for a reason.  Analytics is a thing based on trends.  You don’t know what the future holds, you know what happened in the passes, that is smarter than winging it on gut feeling.  I’m of the belief you don’t draft a QB until you want to play them.  You don’t need to sit them forever anymore.  Take advantage of their cheap salary for five years.  If you sit them for 2 years you are cutting their cheap window almost in half.

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