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Would you be upset with a full on 2019 style Dolphins rebuild this off-season?


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I know there are pretty much two camps on this board. The draft a QB camp and the roll with Ryan camp. Well I'm curious as to how both camps would feel about something similar to this. The Dolphins tr

I'd rather see us make an attempt at least instead of just salting away the rest of Matt and Julios careers with nothing to show for it. If we don't think we can win in the next 2 years it's in everyb

It could work, it could blow up in our faces and we land a top 5 pick...oh wait. That's where we are now.

7 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I'm talking about the 21 cap bro. We still have to field a team of some sort. 

If we trade Ryan, JJ, cut Matthews, Rico, Carpenter, Bailey, and Davidson, and then renegotiate Fowler, Jones, and Jarrett that gets us to about $8M under the cap with an entire draft to sign, and about 32 roster spots to fill and pay. With $8M.

You have no idea how far under it gets us because no cap number has been set. That 176 number will not happen. That is 25 mil less than this year. Just not happening

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52 minutes ago, Malachore said:

I don't think there's any chance a team would give up 2 1st round picks for Matt Ryan or a first round pick for Julio (especially with how broken down he was this year).

My thoughts exactly.  Everyone in the NFL is cognizant of the cap issues.  No way does anyone take these players.  Ryan in San Fran with Shanny would be fun to see.

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2 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

My thoughts exactly.  Everyone in the NFL is cognizant of the cap issues.  No way does anyone take these players.  Ryan in San Fran with Shanny would be fun to see.

The cap issues are only ours tho. His cap hit to another team would only be 23 mil. Easily a bargain for a contending team.

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1 hour ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

We can get down to 168 mil in commitments by max restructuring Grady, Deebo and Fowler. It pushes a significant chunk of their money to the 2022 cap, but thats ok because we just offloaded 3 huge contracts. We'd still be like 135 million under the cap in 2022 doing this and two of those big contracts would expire in 2023 anyway. Theres always a way, it's just how far the new staff wants to take it.

From a financial aspect, this would be daunting, but if it were doable, Blank and the new regime would be motivated to go for broke.

This team has been losing fans for the past several years. There's still an undercurrent of lingering disgust and disappointment over the SB collapse.

The Falcons likely feel the need to shake things up, separate themselves from the Quinn era and go in an entirely new direction.

There's going to be a rebuild of sorts, it's just a matter of whether it includes Matt and Julio immediately or a year or so down the road. I'm up for whatever.

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1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

You have no idea how far under it gets us because no cap number has been set. That 176 number will not happen. That is 25 mil less than this year. Just not happening

I'll play your game.

Let's say the cap doesn't change a cent from 2020. We'd be right at $33M under with the changes already listed. We'd still have to sign ~28 people to the roster to have a 53 man team. Some of them will be draft choices with slotted salaries ... the current estimated 2021 Rookie Cap Pool for the Falcons is $11M ( before the trades ). Any additional draft picks makes that number go up.

Cutting it awfully close, and that is with the 2020 cap as the bottom end.

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3 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I'll play your game.

Let's say the cap doesn't change a cent from 2020. We'd be right at $33M under with the changes already listed. We'd still have to sign ~28 people to the roster to have a 53 man team. Some of them will be draft choices with slotted salaries ... the current estimated 2021 Rookie Cap Pool for the Falcons is $11M ( before the trades ). Any additional draft picks makes that number go up.

Cutting it awfully close, and that is with the 2020 cap as the bottom end.

Obviously 2021 will be close, probably real close, but what other choice do we have? Trading all three guys only costs us an additional 2.5 mil. If we keep all 3 guys we still have the exact same problem minus 2.5 mil.

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18 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Obviously 2021 will be close, probably real close, but what other choice do we have? Trading all three guys only costs us an additional 2.5 mil. If we keep all 3 guys we still have the exact same problem minus 2.5 mil.

We have tons of choices.

And if they do cut the cap less than 2020's we definitely can't entertain moving JJ, and probably not Matt. We may have to ask those guys to restructure just to field a team.

Edit: I'm not making these numbers up.

Edited by Geneaut
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3 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

We have tons of choices.

And if they do cut the cap less than 2020's we definitely can't entertain moving JJ, and probably not Matt. We may have to ask those guys to restructure just to field a team.

Our choices are fix the cap or don't. We have to get rid of a few big contracts to fix it. It's the only way.....in 2022 we already have 172 million tied up in 20 players....They're never going to cut the cap that low though or the Saints will literally have to forfeit because they're almost 100 mil over that number

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Just now, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Our choices are fix the cap or don't. We have to get rid of a few big contracts to fix it. It's the only way.....in 2022 we already have 172 million tied up in 20 players....They're never going to cut the cap that low though or the Saints will literally have to forfeit because they're almost 100 mil over that number

You can't break the 21 cap to fix the 22 cap is what I'm saying. I don't make the salary cap rules.

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1 minute ago, Geneaut said:

You can't break the 21 cap to fix the 22 cap is what I'm saying. I don't make the salary cap rules.

The 2021 cap is already broke. We are on the books for 202 million. Make all 3 of these trades and we're on the books for 204.5 million. Its the exact same situation. The only difference is that now we can actually move money to 2022 because we just freed up 100+ million. We can't move jack to 2022 right now because we have 172 million in 20 players already.

 

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1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

The 2021 cap is already broke. We are on the books for 202 million. Make all 3 of these trades and we're on the books for 204.5 million. Its the exact same situation. The only difference is that now we can actually move money to 2022 because we just freed up 100+ million. We can't move jack to 2022 right now because we have 172 million in 20 players already.

 

Yes we can move stuff to 2022 ... that is how the cap works. It's more than likely exactly how it is going to have to work especially if the 21 cap is reduced.

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4 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

Yes we can move stuff to 2022 ... that is how the cap works. It's more than likely exactly how it is going to have to work especially if the 21 cap is reduced.

So lets move it to 2022....now we have 20 players under contract with even more money against the cap. We didn't fix anything. We pushed it to next year. How are you not understanding this? The money won't just disappear. The chickens come home to roost eventually.

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4 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

So lets move it to 2022....now we have 20 players under contract with even more money against the cap. We didn't fix anything. We pushed it to next year. How are you not understanding this? The money won't just disappear. The chickens come home to roost eventually.

OK. Now lets talk the real world. Today the 21 cap is $176M. Your plan does not work. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Those are the FACTS. 

Until that changes this thread is MOOT.

Jesse Jackson – The 'One SNL a Day' Project

Edited by Geneaut
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1 minute ago, Geneaut said:

OK. Now lets talk the real world. Today the 21 cap is $176M. Your plan does not work. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Those are the FACTS. 

Until that changes this thread is MOOT.

 

Today the cap is nothing because no 2021 cap has been set. What real world are you speaking of? What facts are you speaking of?

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1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

I'm not sure how the fact that no cap has been set is moot when you're trying to tell me that the cap is 176 million.

Just say you're wrong and move on. Don't speak of facts and then bring none.

Moot. Until otherwise directed the NFL Cap is set at a floor of $176M.

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The cap will have to go up cause there is another game on the schedule.

Not sure if the NFLPA has to ratify it or not, but with an additional game, you will likely have a few more roster spots and the price of the talent will rise.

I cant get Beyonce to do an extra show without giving her more money to do it... thats not the way entertainment works.

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I’d be fine with it. Rebuilding is horrible and could take years, but at this point I see no realistic prospects of significant success over the next 2 seasons with Matt and Julio - so I think it’s best to start taking the pain and starting with a clean slate in cap terms in 2022. 

Having said that, I can see the sense in taking a QB at #4 and allowing him to learn for a season behind Matt Ryan 

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2 hours ago, Geneaut said:

Moot. Until otherwise directed the NFL Cap is set at a floor of $176M.

Pretty sure that was worst case scenario, if no games were played at all.
Good bet that the owners and the players union will work out a deal where they take money from future caps and add them to the 2021 cap, keep it close to what it was for this year.

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7 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

I know there are pretty much two camps on this board. The draft a QB camp and the roll with Ryan camp. Well I'm curious as to how both camps would feel about something similar to this. The Dolphins traded LT Laremy Tunsil and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick for boat loads of picks over the next two drafts. Obviously people will have different opinions on values of players so don't focus on that part too much. It's just an estimate.

Before anybody says that no team will take on these guys contracts, well, their new team will not pay nearly as much for them as we do. Any guaranteed money left on a players contract we have to eat. For example trading Matt Ryan would only be a 23 million dollar cap hit to his new team instead of the 40 mil it would cost us because 17 mil of that is bonus money and we have to eat it. Julio Jones would cost a team 15 million for this year and then 11.5 million for the final two years of his contract. That is a bargain. That buys you Kenny Stills in the free agency market right now.

So lets say the new regime comes in here and tells Blank, "Yes, I'll be your coach but under the condition that I do it my way with the players I want" Blank agrees and the purge begins.

 

The Atlanta Falcons trade QB Matt Ryan to the San Fran 49ers for their 2021 1st rounder (pick 14 currently) and a 2022 1st rounder. (A trade comp is the Carson Palmer trade when he went to the Raiders. The Bengals received two 1sts and a 3rd.). We gain no cap relief from trading Ryan this year, but we will gain close to 50 mil in 2022.

The idea of year one isn't to fix the cap for 2021, it's to fix it for 2022.

So what other assets do we have that could net us cap relief while capitalizing on any value they have left? Julio Jones obviously. I think a contending team like the Ravens would be dying for his services instead of drafting another bust receiver. Having to constantly account for Julio will make their running game even deadlier as those safeties can't creep up in the box. He helps their whole offense.

The Atlanta Falcons trade WR Julio Jones to the Baltimore Ravens for their 2021 1st round pick (currently pick #24). Again, no cap relief this year, but it's about clearing space for next year.

 

One last trade I can see is a possibility is the potential to move on from LT Jake Mathews. He's still relatively young in offensive lineman years and he is an above average player. Laremy Tunsil netted the Dolphins two 1st rounders+. I would estimate Jake to be worth at least a late first or a 2nd and a future 2nd.

Let every single free agent walk except for Koo and collect any and all comp picks for 2022.

Making these three trades could possibly net us at least two more 1sts and a 2nd in this draft and another 1st in 2022 and we would also be 150 million UNDER the 2022 cap.

 

Now we head into the draft with these picks

#4

#14

#24

#35

another possible 2nd from the Mathews trade

#68

#99

And then to add on top of all of this we still have three 5th rounders and two 6th rounders.

 

Lets see some mocks based on that and see what the team looks like then.

 

Do I think this is likely? No, not really, but it's fun to look at.

 

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't be upset. My expectations are wide open. However, I don't think the Falcons need a complete roster detonation to compete with the top teams in the league. I'm interested to see how the new regime approaches it. 

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6 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Trade Ryan, Julio and Mathews and cut Rico, Carpenter, Bailey and Davison. This puts us at 187 mil in commitments. It really just depends on what the cap is actually going to be. People have said anywhere from 176 million to 200 million. Nobody knows for sure, but I'm willing to bet its much higher than that 176 million. That puts 11 teams over the cap right from the jump. That will never fly with the NFLPA. Nobody would be getting paid.

Just to double check this — that includes the accelerated signing bonuses from those 3 contracts all hitting the cap in 2021?

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