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QB Draft Narrative


Sidecar Falcon
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QB Draft Narrative   

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  1. 1. If we were to draft a QB in the 1st round, I would want us to...

    • Start the rookie and bench Ryan.
      0
    • Start the rookie and trade/release Ryan.
    • Let them compete and start the better QB
    • Start Ryan and bench/groom the rookie QB until Ryan’s contract ends.
    • Start Ryan and bench/groom the rookie QB until he’s prepared to take over.


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A highly debated topic on this board recently has been the possibility of drafting a QB in the first round.

Those of us that either want it to happen, or opened to the idea, are typically labeled as “Ryan Haters”.

The prevailing notion held by those opposed to this, is that anyone that wants us to draft a QB in the first round, wants us to get rid of Matt Ryan immediately.

I disagree with this notion, I don’t believe this is the prevailing feeling among those wanting to/open to drafting a QB; but I could be wrong. This is where the poll comes in. 

So this hypothetical question goes out to anyone who wants to, or is open to the idea, of drafting a QB. 

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Start Ryan for a couple of reasons.  First, we aren't getting Lawrence, and Wilson is the only remaining one I think is remotely ready to start in the NFL and produce at a competent level.  I didn't choose "let them compete" because it honestly won't be a competition.  Ryan will win.

Second, until we get the scheme sorted out, basic things like receivers being where they are supposed to be and line protection and even just basic things like getting the team lined up properly are going to be problems.  Ryan is equipped to deal with that.  Fields and Lance are not.

The reality is anyone we take not named Trevor Lawrence is going to have somewhat of a learning curve.  Ryan is going to be here, and he's going to be getting paid huge money.  Let him earn it by starting over a rookie.  When the rookie is ready, we can decide whether to move on from Ryan or stick with him and continue to let the rookie back him up.  There is no need to rush the process.

Of course, for all those reasons, I'm not really high on taking a QB top five in any event.

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If you draft a QB in the top 5 and can't play him right away, you shouldn't draft him.

Ryan would need to go for whatever you can get for him.

Otherwise, you're handcuffing too much of your salary to one position and putting your team/staff in the inevitable position of addressing a QB controversy when Ryan throws two picks in week 5.

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Just now, Run 'n' Shoot said:

If you draft a QB in the top 5 and can't play him right away, you shouldn't draft him.

Ryan would need to go for whatever you can get for him.

Otherwise, you're handcuffing too much of your salary to one position and putting your team/staff in the inevitable position of addressing a QB controversy when Ryan throws two picks in week 5.

He can't go because the dead cap hit would be crippling.  So he's here through 2021 at the earliest.

That is highly unlikely to change no matter who we draft.

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Just now, Run 'n' Shoot said:

That's why my general position is you cannot draft a QB.

That's kind of where I am too.  Plus I don't think anyone not named Trevor Lawrence is worthy of a top 5 pick.  I think Lance and, to a much lesser degree, Fields are projects.  I think Wilson is unproven, damaged and too small framed.

They could all end up being great QBs, no doubt.  But you don't take big risks with top 5 picks.  And most of the folks wanting any of the top 4 QBs in the top 5 picks just want another QB.  Though, if we take Trask or Jones in the 2nd, they'll probably all throw a fit over that too.

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28 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

Start Ryan for a couple of reasons.  First, we aren't getting Lawrence, and Wilson is the only remaining one I think is remotely ready to start in the NFL and produce at a competent level.  I didn't choose "let them compete" because it honestly won't be a competition.  Ryan will win.

Second, until we get the scheme sorted out, basic things like receivers being where they are supposed to be and line protection and even just basic things like getting the team lined up properly are going to be problems.  Ryan is equipped to deal with that.  Fields and Lance are not.

The reality is anyone we take not named Trevor Lawrence is going to have somewhat of a learning curve.  Ryan is going to be here, and he's going to be getting paid huge money.  Let him earn it by starting over a rookie.  When the rookie is ready, we can decide whether to move on from Ryan or stick with him and continue to let the rookie back him up.  There is no need to rush the process.

Of course, for all those reasons, I'm not really high on taking a QB top five in any event.

Post of the year. My thoughts align with yours nearly 100%. 

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IMO one of the biggest advantages to having a starting QB on a rookie deal is so that you have the financial flexibility to surround them with the best talent available, thus making their transition to the NFL as seamless as possible.

Keeping Ryan & having the rookie sit on the bench for a year or 2 is essentially a massive waste of that advantage.

So to me, the only way it makes sense to get the most from investing in a QB in the 1st is if you plan on having him start right away. That means you don't screw around with blowing a top 5 pick by taking the 3rd or 4th best QB in this class just to have them sit on the bench.

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Just now, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I agree that I don't want to draft a QB with this high of a pick. If you do, then blow the whole thing up. Trade Ryan, JJ, release JM, and take the cap hits now for a complete rebuild.

I personally, would draft the OL from Oregon, or Parsons, and try to win now.

We can't just take the cap hits now though.  We'd have to cut other players to get under the cap to begin with.  We aren't just blowing those three guys up.  We're releasing productive players we need to be able to compete.  That isn't a recipe for success.

Still, +1 because you're right -- if you take a QB top 5 you're committing to blowing it up eventually anyway.  Ryan and Jones are on notice at that point.

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3 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

That's kind of where I am too.  Plus I don't think anyone not named Trevor Lawrence is worthy of a top 5 pick.  I think Lance and, to a much lesser degree, Fields are projects.  I think Wilson is unproven, damaged and too small framed.

They could all end up being great QBs, no doubt.  But you don't take big risks with top 5 picks.  And most of the folks wanting any of the top 4 QBs in the top 5 picks just want another QB.  Though, if we take Trask or Jones in the 2nd, they'll probably all throw a fit over that too.

Great points. I’m not against the idea of drafting a QB, I would trust that the FO was making the right long term decision for the franchise. I don’t mind losing some games in the interim if it meant that there was a light at the end of the tunnel. Cap space is an issue but that’s going to be an issue regardless if we draft a QB or not. Even if we draft Parson or Sewell, I doubt those single draft picks turn the corner on this organization.

I believe Ryan has two years left and I would like to get as much QB knowledge out of him to impart on a rookie QB. Much like Joe Horn did with Roddy.

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4 minutes ago, k-train said:

IMO one of the biggest advantages to having a starting QB on a rookie deal is so that you have the financial flexibility to surround them with the best talent available, thus making their transition to the NFL as seamless as possible.

Keeping Ryan & having the rookie sit on the bench for a year or 2 is essentially a massive waste of that advantage.

So to me, the only way it makes sense to get the most from investing in a QB in the 1st is if you plan on having him start right away. That means you don't screw around with blowing a top 5 pick by taking the 3rd or 4th best QB in this class just to have them sit on the bench.

The initial cap space involved with the QB position would be considerable. And I agree that it eliminates the ability to be flexible in the short term. However I also don’t see us being contenders in the short term either. So for me, it’s a wash.

History shows us that if you don’t have a QB then your chances of being a contender are low. Ryan is more than capable of being serviceable and good in the short term, it’s the long term I worry about. I personally believe he has two years left before he’s no longer viable. Which is why I’m open to the idea of drafting one.

In those two years we could develop the pieces for long term success. Unfortunately it’ll cost us Ryan and Jones, which sucks. 

Ryan’s value is in his football knowledge/acumen, that information is way too valuable to just let walk out of here without bestowing it onto someone. Ryan is scheme versatile and a Jack of all trades. That knowledge could help turn a raw talented prospect into a star in two years. 

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4 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

Great points. I’m not against the idea of drafting a QB, I would trust that the FO was making the right long term decision for the franchise. I don’t mind losing some games in the interim if it meant that there was a light at the end of the tunnel. Cap space is an issue but that’s going to be an issue regardless if we draft a QB or not. Even if we draft Parson or Sewell, I doubt those single draft picks turn the corner on this organization.

I believe Ryan has two years left and I would like to get as much QB knowledge out of him to impart on a rookie QB. Much like Joe Horn did with Roddy.

Has that ever actually happened w/ a QB though? I feel like most of the time the vet QB isn't too keen on going out of his way to help a youngster who's gunning for his job achieve that goal. I don't recall ever hearing a QB who developed behind an aging star talk about how much the vet helped them progress. Just seems like it's almost always the opposite.

On top of that, Matt Ryan seems like a dude who is very good at figuring out what he needs to focus on for himself, but I'm not convinced he's out there coaching up the younger guys on the roster at his position w/ any real effectiveness. We've never seen much development out of the backup QBs since Ryan got to Atlanta, and have always had to get a vet (Redman, Schaub, etc) to be the #2 QB on the depth chart. If he had any inkling of an ability to impart wisdom of the position unto young QBs, you'd think at least one in 12 years would've been able to challenge for that #2 spot in the very least... or gone on to another team and succeeded due to what he learned under Ryan... but nope.

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Well, I have made my stance clear, but will say it here as well. 

if you take a guy top 5 you should play him. If he isn’t good enough to unseat Ryan then he isn’t good enough to go top 5 to this team, or Ryan isn’t bad enough to justify drafting his replacement that high. Better off taking a guy round 2-3 with a plus skill set and letting him learn.

so, to the question asked...if we take one with our top pick as is stands now (pick 4-5), you trade Ryan to let him a start somewhere else. It is best for both parties to avoid a QB controversy in the locker room...not to mention no chance the team pays that contract for a backup.

I am trying to remember the last time a QB was taken top 5 or so with a franchise QB on the roster. Brees was looking like a bust when they took Rivers, regardless of how it turned out. Kurt Warner was looking done when they took Eli, but he was also a stop gap signing, unlike Ryan.

It’s a question with some wiggle room though...so my secondary answer is - if you would trade back up to the end of round 1 and take a QB, it’s an open competition. If he can beat out Ryan so be it, but likely not gonna happen.

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Who's the last QB taken in the top 4 who didn't start at some point as a rookie?

Even incredibly raw talents like Michael Vick and JaMarcus Russell got onto the field by the end of their rookie seasons

I just don't see the point in taking Fields or Wilson at #4 if they're going to sit on the bench while Ryan plays out his contract. Give me Sewell, Parsons, or Chase and let's build around the players we have right now

A new culture and a capable offensive coordinator will do this team a world of good with the solid nucleus of players we have on both sides of the ball right now

I know it seems silly to pass on a QB when you're in the top 5, but I really don't think this is a situation where Lawrence is Marino and then we get our choice between Elway or Kelly

It's more like Lawrence is Luck and then we get our choice between Griffin III or Tannehill

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1 minute ago, blizzard_falcon said:

Who's the last QB taken in the top 4 who didn't start at some point as a rookie?

Even incredibly raw talents like Michael Vick and JaMarcus Russell got onto the field by the end of their rookie seasons

I just don't see the point in taking Fields or Wilson at #4 if they're going to sit on the bench while Ryan plays out his contract. Give me Sewell, Parsons, or Chase and let's build around the players we have right now

A new culture and a capable offensive coordinator will do this team a world of good with the solid nucleus of players we have on both sides of the ball right now

I know it seems silly to pass on a QB when you're in the top 5, but I really don't think this is a situation where Lawrence is Marino and then we get our choice between Elway or Kelly

It's more like Lawrence is Luck and then we get our choice between Griffin III or Tannehill

Last one I can remember was Carson Palmer. I think he sat his entire rookie season after going 1 overall. I could be wrong there even. Point is slim to none in today’s NFL. 

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I've gone over to the dark side in that if Wilson is there, you take him, and sit him for a year. Then use the rest of our picks to improve other areas of need. We could be anywhere from 40 to 70 million over the cap next year. Help via FA isnt coming.

I just dont see a rookie LBer, or ANOTHER 1st rd offensive lineman being the difference in us winning a SB. 

Lock down the next 13 years now, while we have the chance.

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1 hour ago, k-train said:

Has that ever actually happened w/ a QB though? I feel like most of the time the vet QB isn't too keen on going out of his way to help a youngster who's gunning for his job achieve that goal. I don't recall ever hearing a QB who developed behind an aging star talk about how much the vet helped them progress. Just seems like it's almost always the opposite.

On top of that, Matt Ryan seems like a dude who is very good at figuring out what he needs to focus on for himself, but I'm not convinced he's out there coaching up the younger guys on the roster at his position w/ any real effectiveness. We've never seen much development out of the backup QBs since Ryan got to Atlanta, and have always had to get a vet (Redman, Schaub, etc) to be the #2 QB on the depth chart. If he had any inkling of an ability to impart wisdom of the position unto young QBs, you'd think at least one in 12 years would've been able to challenge for that #2 spot in the very least... or gone on to another team and succeeded due to what he learned under Ryan... but nope.

Happened a few times. Happened with Smith & Mahomes, Montana & Young, Fitzpatrick & Tua. And to a much lesser extent Favre & Rodgers, but I feel that was more of Rodgers learning by seeing.

The 2nd part is simple to. Both Redman and Schaub have been in the league than Ryan. They are what they are. They also aren’t athletically gifted enough to turn that knowledge into anything tangible on the field. We have never invested in a young QB to be a backup. The only other QB we drafted was Sean Renfree in the 7th round. Knowledge only goes so far, it can’t overcome talent and ability  

 

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1 hour ago, k-train said:

Has that ever actually happened w/ a QB though? I feel like most of the time the vet QB isn't too keen on going out of his way to help a youngster who's gunning for his job achieve that goal. I don't recall ever hearing a QB who developed behind an aging star talk about how much the vet helped them progress. Just seems like it's almost always the opposite.

On top of that, Matt Ryan seems like a dude who is very good at figuring out what he needs to focus on for himself, but I'm not convinced he's out there coaching up the younger guys on the roster at his position w/ any real effectiveness. We've never seen much development out of the backup QBs since Ryan got to Atlanta, and have always had to get a vet (Redman, Schaub, etc) to be the #2 QB on the depth chart. If he had any inkling of an ability to impart wisdom of the position unto young QBs, you'd think at least one in 12 years would've been able to challenge for that #2 spot in the very least... or gone on to another team and succeeded due to what he learned under Ryan... but nope.

Umm yes it has happened. Aaron Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Jordan Love, also selected in the first round is doing it now.

And help or not, it's developing him. The reigning QB is not a coach so I wouldn't expect him to be the groomer. That's the coaches job.

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According to Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, there is now optimism that the NFL salary cap in 2021 could be significantly higher than $175 million. In fact, the possibility exists for it to be set around the range of $195 million in the best-case scenario.

This might determine which path the new leadership might go.

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40 minutes ago, Someday soon said:

According to Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, there is now optimism that the NFL salary cap in 2021 could be significantly higher than $175 million. In fact, the possibility exists for it to be set around the range of $195 million in the best-case scenario.

This might determine which path the new leadership might go.

Bill Polian made reference to this. How the league would make sure that teams wouldn’t go over the cap. 

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Until he can’t produce anymore, I’m playing our HOF QB, and I’m building the team around him.

I’d bet money the new GM and HC will feel the same. There is nothing to be gained for a new HC by gutting the most important position in sports and play draft roulette. Especially when that player is still years from being ineffective. 

It’s the easiest way to become an ex-HC. 

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3 hours ago, celtiksage said:

Umm yes it has happened. Aaron Rodgers sat 3 years behind Favre. Jordan Love, also selected in the first round is doing it now.

And help or not, it's developing him. The reigning QB is not a coach so I wouldn't expect him to be the groomer. That's the coaches job.

For the record, those two guys were drafted 24th and 26th, too. If we were in the 20s and someone said let’s take QB X who is a solid prospect and is a value at that spot, then that’d be fine.

 

I 99.9% guarantee everybody that Green Bay wouldn’t have drafted either of those guys if they were picking in the top ten. They’d have taken someone who would impact that team immediately. 

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