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What we need to Happen in to get 3rd Pick *UPDATED*


PriMeTiiMe
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Update: New England got curb stomped by Buffalo. Our Only chance of getting the #3 pick at this point is if Houston beats Indy in Week 17.

Week 16

Patriots Win vs Bills
Note: If Buffalo beats New England tonight our only chance of getting the #3 pick is if Houston beats Indianapolis in Week 17. 

Week 17 
Seahawks lose to 49ers 
Cowboys lose to Giants
Chargers lose to Chiefs
Patriots win vs Jets

Translation: Not likely happening. Week 16 went as bad as possible when it comes to SOS for us and as good as possible for the Texans now making it borderline impossible.

For those that want the math and the long version, Our Opponents currently have 3 more wins than the Texans opponents. We need New England to win Tonight to draw that down to 2.

Atlanta Schedule
Seattle 11-4
Dallas 6-9
Chicago 8-7
Green Bay 12-3
Carolina 5-10
Minnesota 6-9
Detroit 5-10
Carolina 5-10
Denver 5-10
New Orleans 11-4
Las Vegas 7-8
New Orleans 11-4
Chargers 6-9
Tampa Bay 10-5 
Chiefs 14-1
Tampa Bay 10-5
---------
132-108

Houston Schedule
Kansas City 14-1
Baltimore 10-5
Pittsburg 12-3
Minnesota 6-9
Jacksonville 1-14
Tennessee 10-5
Green Bay 12-3
Jacksonville 1-14
Cleveland 10-5
New England 7-8 (*If they win tonight)
Detroit 5-10
Indianapolis 10-5
Chicago 8-7
Indianapolis 10-5
Cincinnatti 4-10-1
Tennessee 10-5
----------------
130-109-1

Teams Falcons/Texans Both Played once and Don't Matter Win or Lose in Week 17

  • Chicago
  • Green Bay
  • Detroit
  • Minnesota
  • Kansas City

Divisional Matchup Teams that Don't Matter

  • Carolina or New Orleans will get 2 Wins added/2 Losses added to Falcons Schedule
  • Jacksonville or Indianapolis will get 2 Wins added/2 Losses added to Texans Schedule
  • We Lose to Tampa Bay they will get 2 Wins Added to Falcons Schedule
  • Houston Lose to Tennessee they will get 2 Wins Added to Texans Schedule

We Want to Lose:

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys
  • Broncos/Raiders (Play Each other so 1 is guaranteed to win/lose)
  • Chargers 

We Want to Win

  • Ravens/Bengals (Play each other so 1 is guaranteed to win/lose)
  • Browns/Steelers (Play Each other so 1 is guaranteed to win/lose)
  • New England

Again, We need 2 more losses than Houston gets in week 17

We know the 2 AFC North matchups will guarantee them 2 wins and 2 losses. New England plays the Jets which is a good chance for a 3rd win. That is 3-2 in those 3 sets of games.

We know one of the Broncos/Raiders will win so that guarantees us 1 win and 1 loss. If Seahawks, Cowboys and Chargers all lose that gives us a 1-4 record in those 4 sets of games. Our SOS would be half a game lower than the Texans thanks to that Tie they have therefor we would get the #3 pick.

Edited by PriMeTiiMe
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1 minute ago, Herr Doktor said:

3 or 4?  In all honesty, who cares?  We have a great shot at an immense talent, or, have the leverage for trade down scenarios.  It's a great place to be, and a rare opportunity.

Agreed. It was actually quite nice not winning meaningless games this year and falling to 16. I'm actually quite excited for this draft.

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1 minute ago, Herr Doktor said:

3 or 4?  In all honesty, who cares?  We have a great shot at an immense talent, or, have the leverage for trade down scenarios.  It's a great place to be, and a rare opportunity.

I mostly agree, but I will say that it matters immensely if we want Parsons. There's a great shot the Dolphins take Parsons with the Texans old pick if it's at 3.

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1 minute ago, Francis York Morgan said:

I mostly agree, but I will say that it matters immensely if we want Parsons. There's a great shot the Dolphins take Parsons with the Texans old pick if it's at 3.

Absolutely.  Without a clear idea of coaching or GM, we have no clue.  I was looking at it from the macro sense.  I think one of our biggest failures as a team is sticking to our guns.  We tend to knee jerk react to situations.  The best teams stick to their board and press on.  One player (for the most part) should not make or break your team or draft.

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24 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Week 16
Patriots Win vs Bills
Note: If Buffalo beats New England tonight our only chance of getting the #3 pick is if Houston beats Indianapolis in Week 17. 

Week 17 
Seahawks lose to 49ers 
Cowboys lose to Giants
Chargers lose to Chiefs
Patriots win vs Jets

Translation: Not likely happening. Week 16 went as bad as possible when it comes to SOS for us and as good as possible for the Texans now making it borderline impossible.

For those that want the math and the long version, Our Opponents currently have 3 more wins than the Texans opponents. We need New England to win Tonight to draw that down to 2.

Atlanta Schedule
Seattle 11-4
Dallas 6-9
Chicago 8-7
Green Bay 12-3
Carolina 5-10
Minnesota 6-9
Detroit 5-10
Carolina 5-10
Denver 5-10
New Orleans 11-4
Las Vegas 7-8
New Orleans 11-4
Chargers 6-9
Tampa Bay 10-5 
Chiefs 14-1
Tampa Bay 10-5
---------
132-108

Houston Schedule
Kansas City 14-1
Baltimore 10-5
Pittsburg 12-3
Minnesota 6-9
Jacksonville 1-14
Tennessee 10-5
Green Bay 12-3
Jacksonville 1-14
Cleveland 10-5
New England 7-8 (*If they win tonight)
Detroit 5-10
Indianapolis 10-5
Chicago 8-7
Indianapolis 10-5
Cincinnatti 4-10-1
Tennessee 10-5
----------------
130-109-1

Teams Falcons/Texans Both Played once and Don't Matter Win or Lose in Week 17

  • Chicago
  • Green Bay
  • Detroit
  • Minnesota
  • Kansas City

Divisional Matchup Teams that Don't Matter

  • Carolina or New Orleans will get 2 Wins added/2 Losses added to Falcons Schedule
  • Jacksonville or Indianapolis will get 2 Wins added/2 Losses added to Texans Schedule
  • We Lose to Tampa Bay they will get 2 Wins Added to Falcons Schedule
  • Houston Lose to Tennessee they will get 2 Wins Added to Texans Schedule

We Want to Lose:

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys
  • Broncos/Raiders (Play Each other so 1 is guaranteed to win/lose)
  • Chargers 

We Want to Win

  • Ravens/Bengals (Play each other so 1 is guaranteed to win/lose)
  • Browns/Steelers (Play Each other so 1 is guaranteed to win/lose)
  • New England

Again, We need 2 more losses than Houston gets in week 17

We know the 2 AFC North matchups will guarantee them 2 wins and 2 losses. New England plays the Jets which is a good chance for a 3rd win. That is 3-2 in those 3 sets of games.

We know one of the Broncos/Raiders will win so that guarantees us 1 win and 1 loss. If Seahawks, Cowboys and Chargers all lose that gives us a 1-4 record in those 4 sets of games. Our SOS would be half a game lower than the Texans thanks to that Tie they have therefor we would get the #3 pick.

wow we could of had at least 11 wins up to this point man that blows

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Just now, Mescalito said:

No chance the Patriots win tonight.  Belichick is smart and knows his job is secure.  He wants the higher draft pick and will somehow make sure his team loses.  He's probably already had a conversation with Kraft about it.

Its highly unlikely for sure. It makes it clear cut for week 17 if Buffalo beats them tonight.

Texans win + Falcons Loss = Pick #3
Texans Loss + Falcons Loss = Pick #4

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1 minute ago, Dirtier Bird said:

In draft trade value there’s a second round pick in between picks 3 and 4. So I care. 

This. That's why every pick this high up matters so much. We aren't talking the difference of Pick 17 or 18 here.

Not to mention in a QB heavy draft and so many teams needing a QB upgrade their could be a chance at a massive haul for the team picking #3.

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1 minute ago, falconfanEST1989 said:

You forgot the #1 thing that needs to happen......... we have to lose....and we all know the falcons will win this game... dropping us to 9th or 10th..    its our destiny...   the fans want a top 5 pick the Falcons will win.... bet on that....        thanks again 2020 

Certainly possible. If we win, at worst we will be Pick 10 if everyone picks 5-9 losses.

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Just now, matty72780 said:

Or if we want to make it easy. We lose, Texans win in week 17 = we pick @ 3. 

Obviously but the chances they beat the Titans are slim. They need to win if they want to win the South and make the playoffs.

Not to mention, Deshaun Watson could miss the game (Claims he will play but we'll see)

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2 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

I mostly agree, but I will say that it matters immensely if we want Parsons. There's a great shot the Dolphins take Parsons with the Texans old pick if it's at 3.

 

If we assume that the first two teams go for QB's, we will have a shot at Parsons or Sewell. We will also have a chance to trade down with a team that is desperate for a QB. 

That is a nice position to draft!

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  • PriMeTiiMe changed the title to What we need to Happen in to get 3rd Pick *UPDATED*

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