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Falcons Mock Draft - 12/15/2020 - projected overall pick#4


g-dawg
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NFL Draft Order as of today

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

as of today, Falcons are picking 7th.   Same record as Chargers(4th now), Cowboys(5th) and Panthers(6th).    Looking at schedules, I could see each of those teams winning one more game.    I feel confident the Falcons can go for the hat trick of losing twice to Tampa and once to the SB champs.    Assumptions a many, but if so,  Falcons would finish w/ the 4th overall pick.

Now onto the mock:

2021 NFL Draft (at "The Mistake on the Lake")

image.jpeg.800d5fab09accb85001306f802cd58f3.jpeg

 

1) NY Jets - QB Trevor Lawrence - Clemson

2) Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Justin Fields - Ohio State

3) Cincinnati Bengals - OT Penei Sewell - Oregon

4) Atlanta Falcons - QB Trey Lance - NDSU

2021 NFL Draft: North Dakota State QB Trey Lance, a likely first-round  pick, declares after only fall game - CBSSports.com

G-Dawg:   This is - no doubt - a "Boom or Bust" pick and Lance isn't ready to be NFL starter on Day#1.   I will freely admit it.   Many of you will hate the pick and I understand it.   This is perfect situation to draft Lance though.   He can sit for a year and learn, season and develop - much the way talented players like Mahomes and Rogers did.   To those saying  "this doesn't make us better in 2021" - you are absolutely correct - it doesn't.    This is a long-term investment in the franchise.   For many years the Falcons have been making a lot of "short term moves" - drafting for whatever the pressing need is for that particular year - the team has regressed.   The star players are aging. The SB window was missed.   Falcons are firmly out of the window.   Matt Ryan, will still a very good QB, is slipping.   Julio is becoming more injury prone and will be 32 years old next year.     Moves need to be made.    I would hang onto Matt for another year and let Trey sit and learn.   If someone wanted to trade for Julio and we could do it, I would do it.   Falcons have some good receivers now in Calvin and Gage and we can always draft more.    

As to Trey Lance himself, the biggest thing to test in off-season and something GM and scouting staff needs to be comfortable with is his ability to be accurate w/ the ball.   The kid is a superior athlete and the tape shows this - he has the needed size and strength for the position.   I have watched a lot of highlights on the kid and he runs in a pile like a running back - very strong.   Plays aggressive - and he is the "anti Matt Ryan" in the redzone - a REAL redzone threat both passing and running.    Throws well to the Tight End.   Zach Wilson is more NFL ready now, but has a lower ceiling in my opinion.   Kyle Trask and Mac Jones have much lower ceilings and fringe starting/likely NFL back-up type careers.   Falcons could play it safe and just draft a really good cornerback like a Patrick Surtain or Caleb Fairly but you don't get many shots at a potential true franchise QB - and Trey Lance has that high of an upside in my opinion if he has the head to process and is developed properly by a great offensive mind at OC and QB coach.

 

#2-036)  Atlanta Falcons - Jevon Holland, FS - Oregon

DuckSportsAuthority - Upon further review: Top grades - Auburn

G-Dawg:    The true playmaker the Falcons crave and need on the back-end.   Has both the ability to be a single-high safety, erase angles and make plays all over the field.   Tremendous balls skills and great length for the position at 6'1".   He also has Kick Return/ Punt Return ability as well.    If he was Earl Thomas or Eric Berry he would be a top 15 pick - he isn't quite that, but would be a tremendous upgrade from what we have now and a Day#1 starter.

#3-068) Atlanta Falcons - Javonte Williams, RB - North Carolina (5'10", 220lbs)

Devy Dose Rising Star Week 11: Javonte Williams | Dynasty Nerds

G-Dawg:  Great "one cut and go" runner and soft hands out of the backfield.   Powerful runner as well.   Young/fresh legs as he ran a tandem with another great back in this draft as well.

#4-105) Alec Lindstrom, OG/C - Boston College (yes, Chris' lil' bro)

Boston College offensive lineman Alec Lindstrom waits to snap the... News  Photo - Getty Images

G-Dawg:   I will FREELY admit that part of the allure here is that he is Chris' lil' brother.   Not so much that "it would be cool" to have two brothers on the same team as much as  - 1) DNA the same,   2) typically the work ethic the same,  3) similar attitudes, etc.   Alec is a good player in his own right and comes from football family.    When picking in the 4th round, little things like this help solidify picks and - whether Hennessy turns out good or not - we need another player between LG and Center.

 

Positions not addressed   Cornerback and Passrusher - I would probably prioritize re-signing Darqueze Dennard and just continue to develop the guys we have at corner and leave adding another to another years draft.   Also, w/ a better blitzing scheme I believe we can get away w/ the talent we have on the defensive line - Fowler can improve, Steve Means and Jacob Tuloti-Mariner show promise and can improve - Comminsky,   Marlon Davidson, etc.

 

 

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Lance is such a high risk high reward player. He could be so good if he reaches his potential but you also go into it knowing he has A LOT of work to do and A LOT to learn.

Luckily we would have Ryan under contract and not have to rush him but it would be hard for me to take Lance over Wilson at this juncture.

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41 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

i get bored after 4 rounds and rarely go past.

Love it.  I was working on a mock yesterday and you have 2 guys I put in mine.  Will have to rework it.  Williams is an absolute animal.  My only concern with Lindstrom is his weight but I put him at Center just cause it’s a cool story.  

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19 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Lance is such a high risk high reward player. He could be so good if he reaches his potential but you also go into it knowing he has A LOT of work to do and A LOT to learn.

Luckily we would have Ryan under contract and not have to rush him but it would be hard for me to take Lance over Wilson at this juncture.

Wilson is a much, much better quarterback at this point.  He is already an elite thrower.  With that said, Lance has a higher ceiling.  I’d be good with the risk of taking either so long as we don’t trade up to make the pick

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2 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

I think a 2nd rounder is the best we could ask for Julio. I mean Hopkins (who I think is better) only netted 2nd round talent (and a 4th in a future year).

Agreed.  You aren’t getting a 1st rounder for a 32yr old Julio with the highest paid contract in NFL coming off his worst season in 10yrs.

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

Dirty little secret is the offense needs a lot of help for now and future.

of course the OC is the place to start.

I've thought about this. The defense has played pretty well the last couple of weeks but on paper seems to have the most holes. If you look at the offense, the only "major" hole is at RB unless you start getting rid of Julio and Matt. 

The offense's production has been straight garbage and it seems like the key to fixing that is rushing more than 3.7 y/c, so what does that mean drafting wise. 

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8 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Wilson is a much, much better quarterback at this point.  He is already an elite thrower.  With that said, Lance has a higher ceiling.  I’d be good with the risk of taking either so long as we don’t trade up to make the pick

Lance doesn’t have a higher ceiling. 
How would you know that? Fields and Wilson are very good scrambling QBs. 
I would say Fields and Wilson have the best pocket awareness of any QB in this draft. Both have rocket arms. 
Lance is playing literally high school level talent. It’s laughably bad at times. There’s a reason he’s at a Division 6 school and the current benching of Wentz for Hurts should definitely give lots of cause to pause and look closer at any player coming out of a school like this. 
 

I love watching the kid though. He’s electric and can make plays all over the field. 

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6 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

Realistic, but how are you going to get 4 man pressure?

By the way. It's a good draft and makes the new QB guys happy and the FS and RB guys like me ecstatic.

This draft is really a good draft to reload at Safety, RB and CB hitting on a rookie QB at the top. 
Folks need to embrace the suck and rebuild.

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