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*** Official Panthers Vs Falcons In-Game Thread ***


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Finally. Neal blasting the bad guy

Lol it hit him in the hands. If Julio puts hands to ball instead of breadbasket granny catching?!

Oh Matt

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4 minutes ago, BirdGangATL said:

Hill can get more than 2 yards a carry like gurley 

only because he's a the backup. Everything looked sweet for Tevin Coleman until he had to be a lead guy, and Coleman is better than Hill. All that catching defenses off guard because nobody expects you to get the ball stuff is dead.

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Why did we want to saddle ourselves with a redzone (I used a word here that required my mouth to be washed out)?

 

Dirk Koetter and The Big Miss

Red zone struggles have followed Dirk Koetter throughout his career and have continued to plague the Bucs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2007 

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 57% conversion rate on 58 attempts. Ranked 8th
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game. 3.6 (rank 3rd)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 2.1 (rank 6th)
  • Offensive points per game: 23.8 (rank 5th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 18th run blocking. 17th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 15th

Jacksonville Jaguars 2008

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 55% conversion rate on 45 attempts. Ranked 15th.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.8 (rank 22nd)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.6 (ranked 20th)
  • Offensive points per game: 17.6 (rank 24th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 12 run blocking. 24th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 24th

Jacksonville Jaguars 2009

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 51% conversion rate on 47 attempts. Ranked 16th.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.9 (rank 20th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.5 (rank 19th)
  • Offensive points per game: 18.2 (rank 22nd)
  • Offensive line ranking: 11th run blocking. 29th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 28th

Jacksonville Jaguars 2010

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 63% conversion rate on 46 attempts. Ranked 3rd.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.9 (rank 20th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.8 (rank 13th)
  • Offensive points per game: 21.6 (rank 12th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 2nd run blocking. 24th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 32nd

Jacksonville Jaguars 2011

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 48% conversion rate on 35 attempts. Ranked 21st.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.2 (rank 30th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.1 (rank 27th)
  • Offensive points per game: 13.5 (rank 29th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 13th run blocking. 26th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 5th

Atlanta Falcons 2012

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 57% conversion rate on 63 attempts. Rank 10th.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.8 (rank 4th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 2.2 (rank 4th)
  • Offensive points per game: 25.6 (rank 4th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 24th run blocking. 8th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 12th

Atlanta Falcons 2013

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 51% conversion rate on 52 attempts. Ranked 22nd.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.2 (rank 14th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.7 (rank 17th)
  • Offensive points per game: 20.7 (rank 19th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 24th run blocking. 7th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 29th

Atlanta Falcons 2014

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 61% conversion on 44 attempts. Ranked 6th.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 2.8 (rank 26th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.7 (rank 16th)
  • Offensive points per game: 22.5 (rank 12th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 14th run blocking. 11th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 32nd

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2015

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 52% conversion rate on 51 attempts. Ranked 22nd.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.2 (rank 13th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.7 (rank 15th)
  • Offensive points per game: 20.3 (rank 19th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 9th run blocking. 14th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 18th

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2016

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 51% conversion rate on 54 attempts. Ranked 20th.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.4 (rank 11th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.8 (rank 16th)
  • Offensive points per game: 20.3 (rank 20th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 21st run blocking. 16th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 13th

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2017

  • Red zone touchdown scoring: 49% conversion rate on 53 attempts. Ranked 24th.
  • Red zone scoring attempts per game: 3.3 (rank 8th)
  • Red zone touchdowns per game: 1.6 (rank 13th)
  • Offensive points per game: 19.6 (rank 19th)
  • Offensive line ranking: 16th run blocking. 16th pass protection.
  • Defense ranking: 32nd

Whew. Still with me? If your eyes haven’t glazed over yet, let’s keep going. Koetter’s offense has only had a 2.0 or above, in red zone touchdowns per game twice in eleven seasons, despite being in the top fifteen in red zone attempts in six of those years. The Bucs have been in the top fifteen in attempts for three consecutive years. The most successful years he has had as a play caller, in terms of scoring, were the with the Falcons. A fifth, sixth and seventh year Matt Ryanhad the experience, decision making, and accuracy to run Koetter’s offense the most efficiently it’s been run in eleven seasons. It is a tough scheme and often requires higher difficulty throws and tight window completions. Those throws and windows only get more difficult and smaller in the red zone.

Another thing the Falcons had that helped make this offensive scheme work more efficiently, was an offensive line that was in or just outside the top ten in pass protection every year. If the Bucs are going to crack the top ten in red zone touchdown scoring efficiency, having an offensive line in the top ten in pass protection would go a long way to accomplishing that feat. I hesitate to say necessity, but based on the data, it might be a necessity. It is a passing league and quarterbacks in this offense have thrown a combined 1,718 passes (572 avg) over the last three seasons. Even with an improved run blocking offensive line and addition of Ronald Jones, expect the ball to be in the air more than five hundred times and a lot in the red zone, which puts a bigger premium on play calling creativity AND execution.

A staple of Koetter’s offensive philosophy is the desire for explosive plays. Because of that, the offense can move the ball up and down the field on a pretty consistent basis. But, as the numbers show, once the field gets compressed inside the red zone, it can be more of a struggle to complete the drive with a touchdown. Some of that is player execution. Some of that is play design. The challenging part is determining which is the bigger cause for the red zone struggles attached to this scheme.

 

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