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Response to those against trading Ryan


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6 minutes ago, Intellectually Honest said:

Yeah. Fixing the coaching and fixing the defense this year or next year is a BIG if. I see it as big IFs with or without Ryan. That being said, with a young QB you have more TIME to fix those big IFs than with and old QB. Agree?

Getting rid of a Top 10 QB, thereby creating cap he’ll, just to draft a rookie QB is a much bigger if to me. 
 

Fix the coaching and assuming we stay healthy, we’ll be back in playoffs next year.  I can pretty much guarantee it.

You guys still don’t grasp just how bad a HC Dan Quinn was. Nor how good Matt ryan still is.

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LOL, you lost me coming out of the gate with this BS. 

Its like dead cap doesnt mean anything to these people.

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"In your OP you say we should move on from Ryan even if he is still capable of leading us to a SB.  "

No. I never said it, implied or alluded to it. I have no idea why you think I believe that. All I said he is a good QB NOW. Good doesn't nessasarily mean good enough to win the SB now or even in the future. I also said I doubt he will be a good enough QB by the time the rest of the team is fixed. I was being charitable in assuming that the Falcons could turn things around within a 2 year time frame in my hypothetical.

Sure it's possible the D can be turned around in a year. Is it probable?

This is where I think you (and the rest who disagree with me) and I are looking at this differently. You look as if something is possible, especially within the time frame Ryan has to still do well with the Falcons. I look at PROBABILITY. Yeah it is possible everything works out right for the Falcons and Ryan is at the helm when it does. But is it probable?

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33 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Ryan’s actually throwing better than Brady did at 35....as well as now.

Falcons issue has been coaching. Get the next hire right, we’ll be right back in playoffs next season.

As @FalconFanSince1970 is schooling you, it will take many seasons (If ever) if you gut roster thereby creating cap **** just to grab a shiny toy wet-behind-ears rookie QB who may or may not survive all that.

Bro. Dude is freakin clueless. First of all, we're likely not going to lose enough games or trade with a team that will land us Lawrence or Fields. So we'd basically be trading Ryan to grab someone like Trask, Lance or Wilson who may not be the key to a Lombardi. Secondly we'd probably have to cut five to ten players just to get to the zero cap mark. So we'd need twenty five or thirty players just to fill out the roster. That would be pretty hard to do with no cap space.

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1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Bro. Dude is freakin clueless. First of all, we're likely not going to lose enough games or trade with a team that will land us Lawrence or Fields. So we'd basically be trading Ryan to grab someone like Trask, Lance or Wilson who may not be the key to a Lombardi. Secondly we'd probably have to cut five to ten players just to get to zero cap mark. So we'd need twenty five or thirty players just to fill out the roster. That would be pretty hard to do with no cap space.

Spot on. Don’t blow roster up, add edge and safety and a running\game next year and ride out the results. Gutting a team with players still in prime is silly 

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If you have an top QB, you don’t move on from him unless you feel you have as good a replacement (or better) already in house.

Favre - Rodgers waiting

Montana - Young waiting

Smith (though not elite) - Mahommes waiting

Brees - Rivers waiting

Warner - Manning waiting

IMO, drafting a QB to groom isn’t the item in question, it’s trading Ryan now that is downright stupid.

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7 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Bro. Dude is freakin clueless. First of all, we're likely not going to lose enough games or trade with a team that will land us Lawrence or Fields. So we'd basically be trading Ryan to grab someone like Trask, Lance or Wilson who may not be the key to a Lombardi. Secondly we'd probably have to cut five to ten players just to get to zero cap mark. So we'd need twenty five or thirty players just to fill out the roster. That would be pretty hard to do with no cap space.

Thank you! I think this is the point that is slipping by. All the argument about how good Ryan is or will be is COMPLETELY irrelevant.

Simply put, if we trade him we may not even be able to field a team unless there's some sort of cap relief that's deep in the system that we're not aware about.

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This whole conversation makes me think of the Colts. Although they didn’t tank, they went with the shiny new can’t miss draft pick in Andrew Luck. They were supposed to win multiple Super Bowls.... Instead some team(Denver) took their trash, improved their defense and coaching(what we should do in our current situation) and won a Super Bowl. These couch GMs continue to speak out about an unproven shiny draft pick that could setback our organization a decade. No thanks!!!

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1 hour ago, ROMERO said:

Its like dead cap doesnt mean anything to these people.

DEAD CAP only matters to Arthur Blank as he is paying players to not play for the Falcons.  CAP SPACE is what matters in the possible rebuilding of the team.  So AFTER the season if the new regime decides to move on from Ryan they can create cap space by doing so.

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We are not trading Ryan midseason with no GM or long-term HC around unless some idiotic team offered us something ridiculous like all 7 of their 2021 draft picks for him.

Blank is more concerned right now about finding a GM and HC for next year than changing the players on the field.  And, one of the biggest negatives to a GM/HC applicant would be coming into a new mess just created.

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21 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Bro. Dude is freakin clueless. First of all, we're likely not going to lose enough games or trade with a team that will land us Lawrence or Fields. So we'd basically be trading Ryan to grab someone like Trask, Lance or Wilson who may not be the key to a Lombardi. Secondly we'd probably have to cut five to ten players just to get to the zero cap mark. So we'd need twenty five or thirty players just to fill out the roster. That would be pretty hard to do with no cap space.

Exactly 70. That would be creating an especially bad situation for a rookie QB to come into. You want to position him for success, not failure. 
 

https://blog.chron.com/sportsjustice/2010/03/could-david-carr-have-been-great-well-never-know/

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31 minutes ago, Someday soon said:

DEAD CAP only matters to Arthur Blank as he is paying players to not play for the Falcons.  CAP SPACE is what matters in the possible rebuilding of the team.  So AFTER the season if the new regime decides to move on from Ryan they can create cap space by doing so.

 

Dead cap takes up cap space.

 

That's why it's called dead cap. It means players will be on the books(counting toward the team's salary cap) while they are playing for another team or just sitting at home after being released.

 

Todd Gurley is counting towards the Rams salary cap this season while playing for the Falcons.

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8 minutes ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

Dead cap takes up cap space.

 

That's why it's called dead cap. It means players will be on the books(counting toward the team's salary cap) while they are playing for another team or just sitting at home after being released.

 

Todd Gurley is counting towards the Rams salary cap this season while playing for the Falcons.

Correct in every point you made.

There is one avenue to lower this cap hit in a current league year: the June 1 designation. Teams can spread the cap hit over two seasons by releasing or trading a player after June 1 -- any signing bonus prorations for future seasons are charged to the following seasons' salary cap. Teams are allowed to release two players prior to June 1 (but on or after the first day of the league year) while still using this designation and getting the same cap treatment. However, the cap savings created by a June 1 designation do not take effect until after June 1.

Cap space can be increased next year.  Not sure if any college QB is ready to start day 1 other than Lawrence and we stand no chance at getting him without giving up future draft picks so this speculation is just that.

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1 hour ago, SipDirtyBird84 said:

This whole conversation makes me think of the Colts. Although they didn’t tank, they went with the shiny new can’t miss draft pick in Andrew Luck. They were supposed to win multiple Super Bowls.... Instead some team(Denver) took their trash, improved their defense and coaching(what we should do in our current situation) and won a Super Bowl. These couch GMs continue to speak out about an unproven shiny draft pick that could setback our organization a decade. No thanks!!!

And they did the same thing with Elway before he retired. People make this situation so unnecessarily complicated. Give Matt a good defense and a run game, he’ll do the rest. 

Edited by A Dog Named Brian
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Instead of saying what I’m thinking...

A little investment in our Secondary would go a very long way to change this conversation for the team and the fans. 

Ryan’s best may be behind him but he’s still good. But it doesn’t help that our D allows more than even I can expect the O to cover.  

Looked better against the Vikes so here’s hoping. 

Won’t/can’t easily trade Ryan now. But smart to plan for the future and draft and groom the next.

 

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1 hour ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

Dead cap takes up cap space.

 

That's why it's called dead cap. It means players will be on the books(counting toward the team's salary cap) while they are playing for another team or just sitting at home after being released.

 

Todd Gurley is counting towards the Rams salary cap this season while playing for the Falcons.

No ****. The problem is that those making an argument against me have created a straw man idea that I am dumb enough to believe that if we were able to get a rookie QB, trade Ryan, and gut the team, that we would still be able to win a SB in that same year. I never said I believed this nor implied it. Every time I tell them they are arguing against a position I don't have they claim I am being dishonest.

 

My position IS that it will take some time for the Falcons to turn the team around. My estimation at least 3 years. While it is possible, it might be sooner,  I am dealing what is more likely. Nothing ever goes exactly according to plan. We hit on some coaches, and we miss. Some players work out, but most don't. To get a team that is strong enough to be a legit SB contender takes some time. You got to have a lot of pieces fall into place AT THE SAME TIME.

Let's say they keep Ryan. New coaches stick with him. He plays with the Falcons till his current contract runs out. Are the chances that they get a high pick then with the quality of prospects available then? Will he win a SB by then? I highly doubt it. I know some fans have faith and disagree with me on this. They believe. I don't.

This whole issue of dead cap space ONLY applies if you believe the Falcons still have a chance this year or next year that they are still a contender or IF all the right moves are made. That is a HUUUUGE IF. I have 0 faith that the Falcons are even remotely close to a SB this year, or the next year or possibly the year after that. Transitions USUALLY take years.

For me, I see 2 highly likely scenarios.

Scenario 1: We wait till Ryan's contract is done. The Falcons could improve during that time, but not enough to be a SB contender. Especially when our best players, and I include Ryan in that catagory, are declining during this time. By the time he is done with the team, we will have to look for a new QB anyway. 

Scenario 2: The Falcons trade Ryan. Team is gutted. Cap space issues. Team is very weak in the next couple of years. In those 3 years the team is not close to winning a SB. However, once the cap is no longer an issue,  in 2 years, and since the team will already be transitioning, rather than waiting to transition, that QB will already have some experience with the team. The Falcons have more cap space to work with AFTER their older highly expensive stars have been traded, quit or retired from football.

For both scenarios: the cap is going to be a freaking problem. The team will struggle. It will be difficult to improve without getting new free agents, and it will be hard to keep our top guys ANYWAY. In either scenario, the new coaches will have to pan out. So will the new drafted players. 

I think the major difference between those willing to trade Ryan vs those who don't is their perception of the team. Those who don't see the team needing a few tweaks. Those who do, see this team needing a major freaking overhaul. And especially those arguing against me, assume I agree that the team needs to be tweaked, when I don't. 

Personally I think it's going to be ugly in either situation. I just rather get through the ugly period ASAP rather than delaying it. It's not just a talent issue. It's a culture issue. This team is still stuck in panic mode as they were in the Super Bowl. That culture is based on the owner (who isn't leaving), the coaches (which some have), and a QB (which eventually will). Why wait?

Edited by Intellectually Honest
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2 hours ago, Vandy said:

Getting rid of a Top 10 QB, thereby creating cap he’ll, just to draft a rookie QB is a much bigger if to me. 
 

Fix the coaching and assuming we stay healthy, we’ll be back in playoffs next year.  I can pretty much guarantee it.

You guys still don’t grasp just how bad a HC Dan Quinn was. Nor how good Matt ryan still is.

I think Ryan is a top 15 Qb. Top 10? That is pushing it. You are still assuming we agree this team is a playoff contender with a few tweaks. I don't believe that at all.

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15 minutes ago, itsryanwonder said:

We got rid of our problems.  Quinn and td are gone. That's all we needed

We don't agree that is the limit to the Falcons problem. I don't think Ryan is a problem yet, but there are issues TD and Quinn created that are still with the team. Culture, and cap, and poor draft picks and over paid free agents.

Edited by Intellectually Honest
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11 minutes ago, Intellectually Honest said:

I think Ryan is a top 15 Qb. Top 10? That is pushing it. You are still assuming we agree this team is a playoff contender with a few tweaks. I don't believe that at all.

I’m not assuming much of anything with you, IH. Just laying out why I disagree with your bad take.

While pondering that truth, Chew on this one too:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2018/04/13/nfl-draft-looking-back-at-the-cant-miss-qbs-who-missed/amp/

 

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