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A TDWII Exercise: So How Did Ryan Perform in Those Pre-Quinn Collapses?


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We are talking about 5 collapses against how many 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives?  I'm not going to spend a lot of time here linking and posting. It just isn't worth it to me. I'm

So we are good on appropriate insults?  Asking for a friend...

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Unlike some, I don't want an extremely mobile QB ...but a little more mobility than sir Ryan would be awesome. Not to mention those rainbow throws that undershoot wide open targets. I been behind him all these years and I don't really consider me turning against him. But it's obvious to me that he isn't going to get it done. Prove me wrong. 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

No, that was just an honest mistake.

I do defend Ryan after the sort of off balance blame he takes in general.  He wasn't who I wanted to draft, and isn't my type of player.  But he has been the most consistent top level player we've had throughout.  And I can provide scores of data around how other QBs, when they have over 100 QB rating or throw 3 TD and no INT or play to some level, their team nearly always wins while that's not true of Ryan.

So on balance, the team lets Ryan down more than the reverse.  And I get tired of the "if this were A rod, etc. narrative."  The reality is those guys teams win even when they don't play great, and win very consistently when they do, and the Falcons can lose on both sides of that.

So if you found the one area where Ryan actually is as much at fault as the defense, congratulations.  As I've said throughout this, when you succumb to a large comeback, both sides play poorly.  It's defined.

But I did misinterpret the defensive data posted here.  I thought it was the standard if our defense plays anything other than dreadfully they did "their part" whereas if our passing offense plays anything other than extraordinary it's their fault.

They all look miserable to me right now, and I think coaching is a bigger deal than most do regarding the NFL, so at this point, it's all a train wreck.

 

See, I don't see Ryan taking much blame.  Look at this board.  Look at the responses to my threads.  If this board is a representation of the most fervent portion of the Falcons fan base, they are firmly on the 'Ryan is a victim in this mess' side of the equation. 

Look at the Quinn threads, the Koetter threads, the Defense threads.  You don't have staunch defenders of those parties like you do Ryan.  Me - I'm in the minority of calling Ryan out.  I shouldn't be.

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4 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

See, I don't see Ryan taking much blame.  Look at this board.  Look at the responses to my threads.  If this board is a representation of the most fervent portion of the Falcons fan base, they are firmly on the 'Ryan is a victim in this mess' side of the equation. 

Look at the Quinn threads, the Koetter threads, the Defense threads.  You don't have staunch defenders of those parties like you do Ryan.  Me - I'm in the minority of calling Ryan out.  I shouldn't be.

I think it's because on balance we've had about the 8th best passing offense and the 25th best defense.

It's clear where the bulk of the blame goes.

And I'm pretty much always going to go to coaching and OL, because I think "skill players" can't do a ****ed thing without both.

If you look at the end of any game we lose, even if Ryan played a very good game there will be blame on him.  Maybe people don't think he's the aggregate problem, but will blame for each game.

There was a time recently where if Ryan had time in the pocket, I was very confident it was going to be a big play.  There was a time recently if we had the ball late in the 4th quarter, I was very confident we were going to score.  I don't have that confidence anymore, so I'm not thinking everything is A-ok.

And it could be that he's now more of the problem.  I actually don't know.  I just know for years he was never provided an OL that top QBs generally have and still performed.  

But I've always been a fan of putting your money and picks in the OL and letting your QB make 2nd and 3rd round WR picks look great.  We've built the exact opposite and I think the person most affected by that is the QB.

 

 

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2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

In due time?  What does that mean?  Does that 'due time' timeline pertain to DQ/TD as well?

The situation in KC worked because the QB Mahomes sat behind was Alex Smith, not perhaps the best player in franchise history.  I'll show Ryan repsect in that regard given his standing in franchise history. He should not be handed a 'dead man walking' status.  With the few years he has left...trade him to a place where he can continue a quest to 'ring' himself.

You may think it's 'knocking him'...but Ryan gets a free pass here in Atlanta for what's been when you look at the tableau of his career the last 7+ years, an underwhelming record.  But when the natives aren't restless, there's no reason to make a change.

For me the point is trying to provide emperical evidence that Ryan is as much a part of the problem that this franchises faces as anyone.  Not necessarily just because of his play, but because of his standing.

 

I am not knocking Ryan either.  Rodgers sat behind one of the most gifted QB's of his generation.  And he was drafted well before anyone was talking about Favre being past his prime.  

The franchise needs to protect itself.  It needs to look out for its future.  IF one of these QB prospects are available and a true franchise quality QB, then draft him and sit him behind Ryan.

Nothing personal

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2 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

See, I don't see Ryan taking much blame.  Look at this board.  Look at the responses to my threads.  If this board is a representation of the most fervent portion of the Falcons fan base, they are firmly on the 'Ryan is a victim in this mess' side of the equation. 

Look at the Quinn threads, the Koetter threads, the Defense threads.  You don't have staunch defenders of those parties like you do Ryan.  Me - I'm in the minority of calling Ryan out.  I shouldn't be.

Ryan went from a guy that if the game came down to the wire, you expected him to make the plays and drive down and get us a score. He was extremely clutch for the early parts of his career.

Now Ryan is the guy that if you need that final score or even just that final drive to kill clock and end the game... you know we probably lost.

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27 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

You’re welcome to do your own research.

It’s not my narrative.  It’s yours.  And to make your point, you have to discuss the change in offensive philosophy in those second halves. We throw the ball half as often as we did in first halves.  Maybe we should have stuck with what worked (except for SB51 & Bears cause we could have killed the clock without ever throwing a 4th quarter pass).

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Just now, PriMeTiiMe said:

Ryan went from a guy that if the game came down to the wire, you expected him to make the plays and drive down and get us a score. He was extremely clutch for the early parts of his career.

Now Ryan is the guy that if you need that final score or even just that final drive to kill clock and end the game... you know we probably lost.

He was still that guy until we started rotating trash OC's, I wonder why?

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2 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Ryan went from a guy that if the game came down to the wire, you expected him to make the plays and drive down and get us a score. He was extremely clutch for the early parts of his career.

Now Ryan is the guy that if you need that final score or even just that final drive to kill clock and end the game... you know we probably lost.

This I agree with.  And I've tried to dissect if it's Ryan or OC, but honestly can't tell.

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27 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

See, I don't see Ryan taking much blame.  Look at this board.  Look at the responses to my threads.  If this board is a representation of the most fervent portion of the Falcons fan base, they are firmly on the 'Ryan is a victim in this mess' side of the equation. 

Look at the Quinn threads, the Koetter threads, the Defense threads.  You don't have staunch defenders of those parties like you do Ryan.  Me - I’m in the minority of calling Ryan out. I shouldn't be.

LOL

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49 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

It’s not my narrative.  It’s yours.  And to make your point, you have to discuss the change in offensive philosophy in those second halves. We throw the ball half as often as we did in first halves.  Maybe we should have stuck with what worked (except for SB51 & Bears cause we could have killed the clock without ever throwing a 4th quarter pass).

Either way...it’s a no win proposition for you.

If it was not successful, we know that defenses generally stack the box when the opponent is trying to run out the clock and Ryan couldn’t make the passing game click when the defense was focused on stopping the rushing attack.

If the run game was successful, then it accentuates the horrid nature of Ryan’s performance.  We could run the ball while the defense stacked the box, but couldn’t pass it?

The bottomline is it doesn’t matter because Ryan was flat out Luke Falk like awful in these collapses.

Next.

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I remember the early Matt Ryan days when the low hit mileage on his brain allowed him to do simple things like scrambling out of the pocket and throwing it away when nothing was there. He was a great game manager as long as he was doing just that: Managing the Game. But at soon as you put the entire team on that man's shoulders? He became the opposite of what defines a guy like Peyton Manning. He started taking bad sacks and clocking through a half set of read progressions and just throwing based on how close he thought the sack was. It's been a bad watching a guy with a great natural arm seem to become less and less savvy under pressure over the years. I think the writing has been on the wall since before Dan Quinn as well. With Shanahans outfit just giving us a slight glimpse of what Matt would have looked like if continuously groomed into the right system. Like my mother always says take the good, leave the bad and most importantly: MOVE ON.

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44 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Either way...it’s a no win proposition for you.

If it was not successful, we know that defenses generally stack the box when the opponent is trying to run out the clock and Ryan couldn’t make the passing game click when the defense was focused on stopping the rushing attack.

If the run game was successful, then it accentuates the horrid nature of Ryan’s performance.  We could run the ball while the defense stacked the box, but couldn’t pass it?

The bottomline is it doesn’t matter because Ryan was flat out Luke Falk like awful in these collapses.

Next.

Legit question (and yes, i used to be a Ryan homer but i see the writing on the wall) if Ryan was so awful in these end of game situations, why cant the defense ever seem to bail him out? Great teams can find a balance and win when one side of the ball sputters. I feel like that is never the case with the Falcons. There is (generally) no such thing as the defense carrying the team here. 

I point the finger at defense because at the end of the day, they are the ones that are in charge of stopping the other team from scoring. Ryan is far from perfect but I think its a combination of the offense sputtering, the defense sputtering, second half adjustments (or in the Falcons case, lack-thereof) and horrible play calling. This team has never had the success they have had since 08, and there are 2 common denominators there as well. 

"BuT tHeY NeVeR wOn A sUpErBoWl"- never had been that close either...

 

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9 minutes ago, DirtyBird2 said:

Legit question (and yes, i used to be a Ryan homer but i see the writing on the wall) if Ryan was so awful in these end of game situations, why cant the defense ever seem to bail him out? Great teams can find a balance and win when one side of the ball sputters. I feel like that is never the case with the Falcons. There is (generally) no such thing as the defense carrying the team here. 

I point the finger at defense because at the end of the day, they are the ones that are in charge of stopping the other team from scoring. Ryan is far from perfect but I think its a combination of the offense sputtering, the defense sputtering, second half adjustments (or in the Falcons case, lack-thereof) and horrible play calling. This team has never had the success they have had since 08, and there are 2 common denominators there as well. 

"BuT tHeY NeVeR wOn A sUpErBoWl"- never had been that close either...

 

So, for me...the reason I'm really banging the drum on Ryan is that I don't care about any other version of the Falcons other that the 2021 version and beyond.  I thought TD/DQ should have been fired last year.  At the same time, I also thought (and still do) that any rebuild needs to be from scratch

What's happened thus far this year IMO hasn't been entirely unpredictable even though the means by which we are here is improbable.  If the extension of time DQ/TD received has any benefit, I think making a call on Ryan NOT being part of the 2021 and beyond Falcons might be more feasible.  And for anyone who says it'll kill the cap - who cares.  We're in rebuild mode, although I'd MUCH prefer a trade and would think there would be teams interested for sure.

But when fan sentiment protects him at every turn and deflects culpability away from him, public pressure to move on from him is low and that offers a greater opportunity for Blank to position Ryan as an asset to prospective GM/HC candidates.  If you look at CAR and Matt Rhule...David Tepper made a tough call in letting Cam Newton go, but he wanted to give his handpicked regime a fresh slate.  To date, the looks like the right call.

As for why it didn't work here, at this juncture it doesn't matter that much.  but we need to all acknowledge that for the last 8 years save for a brief shining moment, it hasn't.  And Ryan, whether you believe he is the cause for that underachievement or isn't, is still the most influential person other than Blank associated with the Falcons.  He's had the Captain's C on his uniform for a decade.

If we let him slide while others lose their jobs (consider the 2 losses in 2014 in the OP were the difference between the Falcons making the playoffs and not - maybe Mike Smith gets another year if we win those two games)...what does it say about who the Falcons are?
 

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2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

How many QB’s...how many OC’s?

com·mon de·nom·i·na·tor

noun

MATHEMATICS

a shared multiple of the denominators of several fractions.

 

Well, given that I was speaking about the change over the last few years as compared to previously, there've only been two...Sark and Koetter.

Neither has shown to be great.  I mean that's really the issue.  Each OC who has coached Ryan has gotten promoted...and each time excluding Shanahan, they've shown they weren't deserving.  So the balance there tilts toward Ryan making his OC's look better than they are.

But I was speaking about...in 2012, 2015, 2016...I felt we'd make the comeback.  I saw when he had time in the pocket and knew it would be a big play.  Granted this is emotional and anecdotal.  I'm a math guy but I'm not going to look up how many comebacks he had in x year vs current.  It certainly feels like a lot more.  It certainly feels like he is not the comeback dude as much now.

 

But if you just want to be a smartass, multiple variables are only telling if they're independent and or can be shown to perform differently (in this case better) under other or neutral circumstances.  That's not the case here.  It's like saying we had 5 LBs perform badly when shembo/spruill etc were on board.  You could conclude that since 5 separate people are performing badly, it must be the coach's fault.  But if you actually understand math and correlation, you realize there can be a connection in the 5 LBs (such as late round/not high talent) that actually makes it more likely they are the problem.

This is what you see with our OC's.  They haven't gone on and found success elsewhere.  The only one who has, had his biggest success with Ryan.

So don't just get silly.

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The Falcons have lost 5 games since 2018 in which the offense scored 30 plus points. Peyton Manning had 5 such games in his entire career. Anyone blaming Matt Ryan for the defense not being able to hold on a 15 or 16 point 4th quarter lead isn't being fair or objective. I would have said some other word but @JD dirtybird21 said to cut out the insults so I'm gonna leave it at that. I am so sick that the Falcons have such a long list of issues and Matt Ryan is way down the list of the blame game and yet he is the one that gets the most blame. It's a ******* joke!!!

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7 hours ago, etherdome said:

What is the point of knocking a guy that is heading out in due time?

But...

17 minutes ago, etherdome said:

No double standard here.

Quinn has been a poor head coach throughout his tenure.  Matt Ryan has performed well and continues to perform above average.  

 

So you probably should have amended your statement to...

What is the point in knocking a precious that is heading out in due time.

PROTECT THE PRECIOUS!!!...but dump on DQ all you like...

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8 minutes ago, AUTiger7222 said:

The Falcons have lost 5 games since 2018 in which the offense scored 30 plus points. Peyton Manning had 5 such games in his entire career. Anyone blaming Matt Ryan for the defense not being able to hold on a 15 or 16 point 4th quarter lead isn't being fair or objective. I would have said some other word but @JD dirtybird21 said to cut out the insults so I'm gonna leave it at that. I am so sick that the Falcons have such a long list of issues and Matt Ryan is way down the list of the blame game and yet he is the one that gets the most blame. It's a ******* joke!!!

My response here is the same as upthread to a similar response...which I expected.

 

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22 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Amazing amount of effort to try and make Ryan look bad.

It's like this is your hobby and that is sad.

Only Matt Ryan could have 7 TD passes and 2 INT through 4 games and have his team up 15 points in the 4th quarter in one game and up 16 points in the 4th quarter of another and be the MAIN REASON the Falcons are 0-4. This message board is ridiculous. I almost hope that when Matt Ryan retires the Falcons have another 40 years of ****ty QB play so all the dumbasses on this message board realize just how stupid they are!

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