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Dimitroff dealing with upside-down 2021 salary cap


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It's a DLed artical, so take it for what's it worth....

https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-falcons/dimitroff-dealing-upside-down-2021-salary-cap/5BNKBRP6QFA45D4OT6PPE3VAQQ/

 

The NFLPA (the player’s union) and the NFL reached an agreement recently to set the salary cap floor at $175 million for next season. The salary cap is at 198.2 million for the 2020 season and was projected to reach $210 million in 2021.

However, because of the pandemic, each NFL team is projected to lose at least $130 million in revenue this season, according to NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith.

The Falcons are currently at $195 million for their top 51 players and are assessing the future projections with the lost cap space.

“We’re in the middle of that right now,” Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Sunday. “We are looking at so many different scenarios.”

The Falcons have $220 million in contracts on the books for 2021. They are projected to be $45 million over the salary cap.

“We are spending a lot of time on that, making sure that we have our ducks in line,” Dimitroff said. “You know how I am, we will never look at something as catastrophic. We will find a way to navigate through like a lot of teams out there.”

The Falcons have paid market value contracts for quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones, center Alex Mack, left tackle Jake Matthews and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett.

“Any team that has high-prized players, as we do, we’re going to have to be smart about how we navigate going into a season, unfortunately if the cap were to fall, we would have to make adjustments,” Dimitroff said.

Last offseason, the Falcons had to get creative after they were not able to re-sign tight end Austin Hooper and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. They also cut running back Devonta Freeman and cornerback Desmond Trufant, both former Pro Bowl players.

Dimitroff said both of the cuts were football and salary cap related. In 2021, the Falcons may not be able to re-sign players, will have salary cap casualties and will have to possibility re-structure some of their big-money contracts with the players taking pay cuts.

“I’m not worried,” Dimitroff said. “I’m only really, really focused on how we would adjust. We can only project so much. I don’t want to get caught up in worrying about it over and over and spending so much time on something that far out in the future because we really don’t know what it’s going to be.”

Director of football operations Nick Polk is the team’s salary capologist and chief negotiator. He’s assisted by Kirsten Grohs, the manager of football operations. Dimitroff and president Rich McKay also get involved.

“We are mindful and aware and again very, very confident with the people that we have around here,” Dimitroff said. “When we start discussing finances, we have it all laid out. It will play out the way it’s supposed to play out. I think in the end, we’ll be in a sound spot.”

Polk has the cap planned out into future years, but this seismic shift downward could not have been projected.

“So, we are always discussing opportunities (and) ideals,” Dimitroff said. “We mull them over all the time. We have great conversations about what the next steps are, different scenarios like we do in the draft with the personnel people. We do that on the finance side with Nick and Kirsten.

“Some great ideas are thrown around. Again, I think there I some really good mental power going on there in those rooms when we are up on the board discussing scenarios. In the end, we don’t just whimsically make decisions.”

Dimitroff knows that it will be difficult to get under the cap. The Saints and Eagles are in similar situations.

“I think we’ll have to use all of our tools moving forward giving where we are right now,” Dimitroff said. “Again, what I’m talking about is when you have your veteran quarterback and veteran receiver and a few other players that make top dollar, upper echelon football players, an organization is going to have to use all of the tools in their bag.

“The great thing here is that we have people that are very open and mindful in talking about it. I understand that it’s not easy for a player to talk about re-structuring and potentially (take a) pay reduction. That’s not ideally where we want to be, but at times those discussions can occur, of course, because they have to. That’s all of our responsibility.”

 

 

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Yes, the cap can be manipulated.  Debts can be kicked down the road.  But there are limits on how much you can manipulate.  Look at 2020/2021/2022 and you see what all the restructuring/manipulating has done
 

¥. 2020 Falcons: $175,659,000 on top 51 contracts

¥. 2021 Falcons: $220,00,000 on 47 contracts

¥. 2022 Falcons: $187,000,000 on 34 contracts

As you can see, the cap will be uniquely difficult to manipulate next year

Unfortunately we have heavily restructured the past three years and made the playoffs once.  That’s why 2021 looks so bad...and if the cap drops by 30 million, we would need to clear 45 million.  No easy outs in that regard.  We need to pray the NFL owners absorb the loss, but I don’t see that happening.

Options:

• Release: Rico, Carpenter, Brown, Senat, Bailey, Davidson, Oliver, Harris.  Frees up $23,000,000 and leaves us around $196,000,000.  We would still need to clear an additional $20,000,000....and the options at this point are very limited

• Release Matthews & Fowler post 6/1: this is the likely route if they need to clear another 20 million.  Matthews doesn’t appear to save much if released, but as a post 6/1 designation he would clear 13 million.  Fowler would clear 8 million as a 6/1 designation.  One of these two would probably have to be released

In this situation we would have to replace these contributing players with zero FA money to do so: Matthews, Mack, Takk, Fowler (maybe), Neal, Rico, Dennard, Wilcox, Bucannon, Kazee, Gurley, Bailey, Davidson & Oliver.

We would be right at the salary cap of 175 million  with just 37 players under contract so further cap manipulation would be needed.  This is a worst case scenerio...but I think it’s more likely than not that the cap will drop by 25 million or more.  So fingers crossed we win a SB this year.

 

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1 hour ago, Xyfiel said:

Salary cap floor not salary cap.  Neither the NFL or NFLPA would want teams to cut that much in one year.  If needed they would borrow from future years.

They’ve set the floor at 175 million which is where the cap likely would end up if each team only allows 20,000 fans to attend.  The rest of the losses would be absorbed over the next 3 seasons
 

Most teams would not have to cut much to get under 175 mill (16 teams are currently under 175 million for 2021).

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Stop speculating 2012 you do realise there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge before we have to worry about anything like that.As the article mentions TD doesn’t seem to overly worried about it.

If the guy that is in control of it being not overly worried why would the fans bother to.He has all the variables we do not.There working through many scenarios now to try and stay on top of it.I don’t think it’ll be as bad as your making it out to be.

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18 hours ago, Atl Falcon said:

Never worry about the salary cap with the Falcons. Just ask a couple cap board experts and they’ll tell you every time TD has got this. The salary cap is imagery. I finally accepted the fact that it doesn’t matter...it’s just a bunch of BS. Just go sign who you need....

Well my friend, as one of those ‘experts’ you’re probably referring to....They sure proved you & most of board wrong With their moves this offseason, didn’t they?

:ninja:

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Really it's not worth worrying about until we get a better idea about what revenues are going to be.

Also college Football is possibly going to be cancelled this week, so that opens up Saturday Tv slots to be sold to the highest bidder which will make up a lot of loss revenue.

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2 hours ago, Vandy said:

Well my friend, as one of those ‘experts’ you’re probably referring to....They sure proved you & most of board wrong With the moves this offseason, didn’t they?

:ninja:

They sure did better than I expected. But to act like the salary cap’s not a factor is ludicrous. TD did a good job and will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat next year as well. I wish he’d go get Clowney on a one yr deal to seal the deal for a legit shot at the SB.

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5 hours ago, Atl Falcon said:

They sure did better than I expected. But to act like the salary cap’s not a factor is ludicrous. TD did a good job and will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat next year as well. I wish he’d go get Clowney on a one yr deal to seal the deal for a legit shot at the SB.

Well,  I actually agree with you guys for next year. Unless things change, the Cap will be a big issue for us in 2021. No more room to kick-the-can down the road if cap is indeed $175m. But that’s a fairly big ‘if’, we shall see how it all plays out.
 

Nonetheless, Quinn/TD/Ryan/Julio et al better get it done this year, or Arthur may just blow the whole thing up. This is a critical season for the future direction of this franchise.

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12 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Yes, the cap can be manipulated.  Debts can be kicked down the road.  But there are limits on how much you can manipulate.  Look at 2020/2021/2022 and you see what all the restructuring/manipulating has done
 

¥. 2020 Falcons: $175,659,000 on top 51 contracts

¥. 2021 Falcons: $220,00,000 on 47 contracts

¥. 2022 Falcons: $187,000,000 on 34 contracts

As you can see, the cap will be uniquely difficult to manipulate next year

Unfortunately we have heavily restructured the past three years and made the playoffs once.  That’s why 2021 looks so bad...and if the cap drops by 30 million, we would need to clear 45 million.  No easy outs in that regard.  We need to pray the NFL owners absorb the loss, but I don’t see that happening.

Options:

• Release: Rico, Carpenter, Brown, Senat, Bailey, Davidson, Oliver, Harris.  Frees up $23,000,000 and leaves us around $196,000,000.  We would still need to clear an additional $20,000,000....and the options at this point are very limited

• Release Matthews & Fowler post 6/1: this is the likely route if they need to clear another 20 million.  Matthews doesn’t appear to save much if released, but as a post 6/1 designation he would clear 13 million.  Fowler would clear 8 million as a 6/1 designation.  One of these two would probably have to be released

In this situation we would have to replace these contributing players with zero FA money to do so: Matthews, Mack, Takk, Fowler (maybe), Neal, Rico, Dennard, Wilcox, Bucannon, Kazee, Gurley, Bailey, Davidson & Oliver.

We would be right at the salary cap of 175 million  with just 37 players under contract so further cap manipulation would be needed.  This is a worst case scenerio...but I think it’s more likely than not that the cap will drop by 25 million or more.  So fingers crossed we win a SB this year.

 

Personally, I don't see the NFL allowing a 25 mil drop to the salary cap. That hurts their business, as well as the individual owner's businesses. Maybe they budget in  money from future years or something. I don't know, but I feel like some concessions will be made to keep it falling off a cliff like that. 

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13 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Yes, the cap can be manipulated.  Debts can be kicked down the road.  But there are limits on how much you can manipulate.  Look at 2020/2021/2022 and you see what all the restructuring/manipulating has done
 

¥. 2020 Falcons: $175,659,000 on top 51 contracts

¥. 2021 Falcons: $220,00,000 on 47 contracts

¥. 2022 Falcons: $187,000,000 on 34 contracts

As you can see, the cap will be uniquely difficult to manipulate next year

Unfortunately we have heavily restructured the past three years and made the playoffs once.  That’s why 2021 looks so bad...and if the cap drops by 30 million, we would need to clear 45 million.  No easy outs in that regard.  We need to pray the NFL owners absorb the loss, but I don’t see that happening.

Options:

• Release: Rico, Carpenter, Brown, Senat, Bailey, Davidson, Oliver, Harris.  Frees up $23,000,000 and leaves us around $196,000,000.  We would still need to clear an additional $20,000,000....and the options at this point are very limited

• Release Matthews & Fowler post 6/1: this is the likely route if they need to clear another 20 million.  Matthews doesn’t appear to save much if released, but as a post 6/1 designation he would clear 13 million.  Fowler would clear 8 million as a 6/1 designation.  One of these two would probably have to be released

In this situation we would have to replace these contributing players with zero FA money to do so: Matthews, Mack, Takk, Fowler (maybe), Neal, Rico, Dennard, Wilcox, Bucannon, Kazee, Gurley, Bailey, Davidson & Oliver.

We would be right at the salary cap of 175 million  with just 37 players under contract so further cap manipulation would be needed.  This is a worst case scenerio...but I think it’s more likely than not that the cap will drop by 25 million or more.  So fingers crossed we win a SB this year.

 

Ryans contract is going to continue to be reworked and then he will be extended for a few years, just like with Brees. That's how this will be manipulated.

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28 minutes ago, NWFALCON said:

THE PURGE IS COMING!!

Let's let this play out, which is what some have been saying all along and others just continue to pound the table like anything is set in stone at this point (it's not).

There is also the news coming out that if college football is cancelled, the NFL is ready to take over Saturdays and some Friday nights, televising games on those two days in addition to Sundays/Mondays/Thursdays.  Big time tv contract.  This is a moving target here.  I have said all along, the cap drop WILL BE the absolute LAST RESORT.  There is still a lot of time for this to work itself out in a variety of ways.  

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Two different sports, but look at what baseball revenue looks like.  Braves just reported theirs

Braves’ finances hit hard: 95% drop in revenue; employee pay cuts

“The Braves’ revenue plunged 95% in the April-through-June quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, falling from $208 million to $11 million. The team posted an operating loss before amortization and depreciation of $26 million for the quarter, compared with a profit of $62 million in the same period last year.”

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31 minutes ago, athell said:

Let's let this play out, which is what some have been saying all along and others just continue to pound the table like anything is set in stone at this point (it's not).

There is also the news coming out that if college football is cancelled, the NFL is ready to take over Saturdays and some Friday nights, televising games on those two days in addition to Sundays/Mondays/Thursdays.  Big time tv contract.  This is a moving target here.  I have said all along, the cap drop WILL BE the absolute LAST RESORT.  There is still a lot of time for this to work itself out in a variety of ways.  

Forgot the purp but the Purge will be worse than this years!!!

 

 

 

/purp

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2 minutes ago, NWFALCON said:

Forgot the purp but the Purge will be worse than this years!!!

 

 

 

/purp

Nah you are good, I knew what you were saying lol.  Sorry, shoulda thrown a "not you" in there somewhere.  Was a general statement :) 

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3 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Ryans contract is going to continue to be reworked and then he will be extended for a few years, just like with Brees. That's how this will be manipulated.

Ryan & Julio for sure...I’m not sure how much more they can squeeze out of those two contracts each year.  Maybe 10 mill or so?

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OTC just presented two models for 2021. 
 


“With the Covid opt outs and 2020 draft picks now accounted for I thought it was a good time to take a peek ahead to 2021 and see how team’s salary cap situations may look next year. The chart provides two cap spaces- one in the event of a $175 million salary cap in 2021 and the second in the event of a $190 million cap in 2021. The cap space estimate is based on current cap figures on the books in 2021, signings of enough minimum salary players to reach 51 players, and carryover based on current cap space for 2020 minus a $5 million placeholder for in-season costs. Note that this is not the salary cap health we talked about before (that will be a post after cutdowns) which takes into account possible cuts/restructures just with the roster as is.

2021 Salary Cap Space Estimates

Team Estimated Cap Space
($175M Cap Limit)
Estimated Cap Space 
($190M Cap Limit)
Colts $86,201,931 $101,201,931
Patriots $65,208,537 $80,208,537
Jaguars $59,128,585 $74,128,585
Jets $56,601,575 $71,601,575
Washington $49,559,205 $64,559,205
Bengals $35,605,952 $50,605,952
Chargers $34,136,482 $49,136,482
Broncos $33,236,645 $48,236,645
Browns $29,129,397 $44,129,397
Dolphins $26,153,421 $41,153,421
Ravens $25,609,647 $40,609,647
Bills $25,570,806 $40,570,806
Giants $22,976,708 $37,976,708
Seahawks $22,246,774 $37,246,774
Cardinals $18,052,445 $33,052,445
Lions $13,000,146 $28,000,146
Buccaneers $12,327,839 $27,327,839
49ers $12,043,224 $27,043,224
Panthers $10,197,935 $25,197,935
Titans $7,549,402 $22,549,402
Packers $31,284 $15,031,284
Rams ($1,087,452) $13,912,548
Cowboys ($2,545,086) $12,454,914
Vikings ($3,185,885) $11,814,115
Bears ($4,058,853) $10,941,147
Texans ($8,587,737) $6,412,263
Chiefs ($18,957,201) ($3,957,201)
Raiders ($20,237,903) ($5,237,903)
Steelers ($22,481,297) ($7,481,297)
Falcons ($43,898,458) ($28,898,458)
Eagles ($72,140,588) ($57,140,588)
Saints ($75,415,139) ($60,415,139)

Obviously many teams will have some work to do as the average cap space of $11.6M and $26.6M would be the lowest numbers in recent memory, but many teams do have some levers to pull if necessary for next year. That said there could be a situation where we see a lot of 1 year contracts next year and a great deal of market control coming from just a handful of teams next season.

 

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I've been worried about the cap the past few years and we still seem to be able to collect good players.   If we get to cap ****, I will not forget the awesome haul of 2020.  Not saying we will live up to expectations and I know that eventually the cap finds you if you keep playing the game that way but I want a Super Bowl, not cap space.  I don't love our situation but I'm good with the talent on this roster and the costs associated with it.

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1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Ryan & Julio for sure...I’m not sure how much more they can squeeze out of those two contracts each year.  Maybe 10 mill or so?

Cutting brown.....carpenter.....Bailey clears what,  $15M? Those are 3 easy no-brainers.

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5 hours ago, Monolith2001 said:

I've been worried about the cap the past few years and we still seem to be able to collect good players.   If we get to cap ****, I will not forget the awesome haul of 2020.  Not saying we will live up to expectations and I know that eventually the cap finds you if you keep playing the game that way but I want a Super Bowl, not cap space.  I don't love our situation but I'm good with the talent on this roster and the costs associated with it.

Well said, Mono...

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