What To Make Of Our 1st Round Hoarding

[Jesus]

Koetter has never run his own offense in Atlanta. Both times he was asked to adapt to the previous playbook but sprinkled in a few flourishes.

[FalconsIn2012]

1 hour ago, Jesus said:

Koetter has never run his own offense in Atlanta. Both times he was asked to adapt to the previous playbook but sprinkled in a few flourishes.

He ran his own offense in 2013 & 2014...they kept some of the Mularkey concepts Ryan loved, but that’s true whenever a new OC comes to town

[Snafu]

Gotta realize these guys were 1st round picks based on perceived potential. It's likely coaches still see some of that potential that drove their selections. I seriously doubt anyone really paid much attention to the fact that they were all 1st rounders.

[OrthoPTSD]

Harris is intriguing to me at a position of need. Still  very young without any major injury to lower extremity. 

If he can hold edge unlike Takk, may see him steal major snaps and his potential comes out. 

Not a film guy, but does anyone have an opinion on his ability to set edge? 

[SipDirtyBird84]

Since the beginning our coaching staff has been saying you can’t coach speed. Although they are not all fast, the first round is packed with fast guys with a ton of potential. I just hope our coaching staff can coach them up.

[k-train]

I would think it’s more likely we scouted nearly all these 1st rounders to some higher degree when they were coming out of college vs. players selected in later rounds where we may have little to nothing on them.

[Vandy]

On 8/2/2020 at 7:31 PM, OrthoPTSD said:

Not a film guy, but does anyone have an opinion on his ability to set edge? 

His inability to set the edge was the primary reason he got very little PT last year on a bad Miami team bro. What little bit he did play was on passing downs. 

[FalconsIn2012]

4 hours ago, k-train said:

I would think it’s more likely we scouted nearly all these 1st rounders to some higher degree when they were coming out of college vs. players selected in later rounds where we may have little to nothing on them.

That’s a great point.  Had not considered that angle

[OrthoPTSD]

8 hours ago, Vandy said:

His inability to set the edge was the primary reason he got very little PT last year on a bad Miami team. What little bit he did play was on passing downs. 

Yuck, thanks bro, my expectations are now tempered

[Vandy]

3 hours ago, OrthoPTSD said:

Yuck, thanks bro, my expectations are now tempered

Sorry my man. He does have some genuine pass rush potential though.

[falcons007]

14 hours ago, k-train said:

I would think it’s more likely we scouted nearly all these 1st rounders to some higher degree when they were coming out of college vs. players selected in later rounds where we may have little to nothing on them.

That’s BB playbook, sign players scouted if they become available. Now DQ is no BB to get most of the first round outcasts.

[Boise Falcon Fan]

There's no way that this roster is talented, because TD sucks. Just ask the experts on this board...

Edited August 4, 2020 by Boise Falcon Fan

[UGABOZ]

On 8/2/2020 at 10:30 AM, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Treadwell, Harris, Carpenter...

Verdict is still out on Harris in my opinion but he is leaning to the bust side

[lju713]

TD/Quin  is getting all the players we wanted in previous years. Gurley replaces the Beasley pick lol. Fowler was ALWAYS on Quinn's radar. Hurst was gonna be the pick had Ridley not fell in our lap. The rest of the acquisition were just bargains that we pulled the trigger on. Best off-season in a while.

[TheFatboi]

This is kinda a Bill Walsh thing. This is partly how he built the 80’s niners. Cast away top rounders and injured players along with his scheme specific drafting. It works guys. BB does the same thing. And the thing is we don’t need any of these guys to hold the weight. We have our stars already for that.  Matt, Julio, Debo, Grady, Neal, and Rico. We don’t even need Gurley to be full Gurley because if Julio and Ridley. We’ll be fine with 70-80% Gurley. And the THREAT of him makes this the most dangerous offense in the nfl because he can still play and can still hit the hole with authority and burst and urgency. Sometimes the right change of scenery is all a player needs. Miami has sucked for a while now but they’ve kept good players around that underperform. Even Suh looked like it was a wrap when he was there. 

[TheFatboi]

On 8/2/2020 at 11:30 AM, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Treadwell, Harris, Carpenter...

I’m reserving comment here bro. Treadwell never played with a qb like Matt that spreads the ball and can throw into tight windows, Harris was on the sucky fins so we don’t know for sure if it was just him it the result of nobody wanting to play on that team, and carpenter sucks foreal but even he may be better in year 2. Especially with a strong running game to take pressure off the line. 

[NorthGaBoy]

1 hour ago, TheFatboi said:

This is kinda a Bill Walsh thing. This is partly how he built the 80’s niners. Cast away top rounders and injured players along with his scheme specific drafting. It works guys. BB does the same thing. And the thing is we don’t need any of these guys to hold the weight. We have our stars already for that.  Matt, Julio, Debo, Grady, Neal, and Rico. We don’t even need Gurley to be full Gurley because if Julio and Ridley. We’ll be fine with 70-80% Gurley. And the THREAT of him makes this the most dangerous offense in the nfl because he can still play and can still hit the hole with authority and burst and urgency. Sometimes the right change of scenery is all a player needs. Miami has sucked for a while now but they’ve kept good players around that underperform. Even Suh looked like it was a wrap when he was there. 

You make a good point.  I think Joe Montana would have been a bench warmer for some coaches.  Instead, Bill Walsh analyzed his capabilities and created an offense that turned Joe from a weak armed QB to a strong offensive threat.  We need more like Bill Walsh in the NFL.  And, yes, BB does the same.

[me4falcons]

Simply Happenstance

[TheFatboi]

2 hours ago, NaGaBoy said:

You make a good point.  I think Joe Montana would have been a bench warmer for some coaches.  Instead, Bill Walsh analyzed his capabilities and created an offense that turned Joe from a weak armed QB to a strong offensive threat.  We need more like Bill Walsh in the NFL.  And, yes, BB does the same.

Exactly. A lot of times it’s just getting in the right situation at the right time. for players. Now we just need the coaches to deliver. I’m not putting ya in the SB but we should at LEAST be a sure shot playoff team. We really rounded out the edges with former 1st round talent that I feel we wanted/scouted during their drafts. 

[DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry]

On 8/2/2020 at 2:01 PM, FalconsIn2012 said:

A well balanced offense should be the goal of every OC.  Unfortunately Koetter has struggled to do so during his time in ATL

 

Passing Rates in Neutral Game Script

One of the first questions asked about play-callers in the NFL is whether they favor the pass or the run. While this question is often well-intentioned, the answer can be deceptive if game script isn’t taken into account. Consider the 2019 Chiefs—Kansas City threw 62.5% of the time last year, the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. If we consider neutral game script (when the game is within 7 points), the Chiefs' 66.4% pass rate was the highest rate in the league.

By looking at neutral play splits, we can get an idea of how a play-caller truly wants to run their offense.

^{Playcaller's Passing Rates in Neutral Game Script (Ranking), 2006–2019}

 

This chart argues against the idea of a "well-balanced offense" being an ideal. 

[Gnorts]

It makes sense to me.  I feel that a player can be good on one team and not on another because of the system that team plays in.  A first round player was good at one point so maybe a change of system and they can be that first rounder again.  So pick up that old first rounder when you get the chance.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Gnorts

[rugger8]

On 8/4/2020 at 8:24 PM, Gnorts said:

It makes sense to me.  I feel that a player can be good on one team and not on another because of the system that team plays in.  A first round player was good at one point so maybe a change of system and they can be that first rounder again.  So pick up that old first rounder when you get the chance.

I agree. Bad system. Bad coaching. Negative environment. Any of those can lead to a player being a 'bust,' but a bust in one team doesn't mean they are just no good anywhere. So we bring in a 1st rounder that didn't work out elsewhere - they can even under-perform compared to their draft status, and they can be solid contributors at some level.

[FalconsIn2012]

On 8/4/2020 at 5:07 PM, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

This chart argues against the idea of a "well-balanced offense" being an ideal. 

Not really.  Only two playoff teams were in the top 10 for passing attempts in neutral script part of the games

[FalconsIn2012]

10 minutes ago, rugger8 said:

I agree. Bad system. Bad coaching. Negative environment. Any of those can lead to a player being a 'bust,' but a bust in one team doesn't mean they are just no good anywhere. So we bring in a 1st rounder that didn't work out elsewhere - they can even under-perform compared to their draft status, and they can be solid contributors at some level.

Steve Young agrees...system, culture & coaching matters

If David Carr was drafted by a decent team, his career would have been so different

[rugger8]

1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Steve Young agrees...system, culture & coaching matters

If David Carr was drafted by a decent team, his career would have been so different

I'm super curious about how Harris and Buccanon will do. If they even prove to be solid contributors, those guys could change the landscape of our Defense.