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Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.


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19 hours ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

You will never convince me that having a strong running game that you establish every time you step on the field isn’t a winning formula. 
 

I don’t care how many colorful charts and catchy acronyms you can come up with, if you can’t run the ball, you won’t sniff a ring!

This thread is not saying that running the ball isn’t important. If you are able to run the ball, keep running the ball and you’re probably going to win. This thread is about not “committing” to the run even when it isn’t working. That’s a waste of time. 

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9 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

This thread is not saying that running the ball isn’t important. If you are able to run the ball, keep running the ball and you’re probably going to win. This thread is about not “committing” to the run even when it isn’t working. That’s a waste of time. 

We understand what the thread is saying. There’s a few of us who disagree with that premise. You may not go 16-0 coming into every game “committing” to the run but you’ll be a better team with that philosophy than if you don’t. 

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18 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

This thread is not saying that running the ball isn’t important. If you are able to run the ball, keep running the ball and you’re probably going to win. This thread is about not “committing” to the run even when it isn’t working. That’s a waste of time. 

So... What you are saying is when we are inside the red zone we should not to try and run the ball because it’s too hard? 

Or worse, decide not to run the ball on second and third down because they stop us the first down when we are already in field goal range that would put the game out of reach? 

Like we( @Vandy and I) were saying, it’s about an attitude more than anything else. 
 

Plus, there are different ways of running the ball, you don’t have to line up in a power set and run off tackle every play, you can give different looks, run misdirection, run wide, adjust your blocking assIgnments, etc.

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56 minutes ago, Vandy said:

We understand what the thread is saying. There’s a few of us who disagree with that premise.

Yeah, I get the don’t keep running the same play if it doesn’t work, but just like passing there are different ways to run the ball. 
 

Why don’t you ever here, oh they stopped three of our passes in a row so I guess we can’t pass any more like you do when it comes to the run game!?

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On 7/10/2020 at 1:58 PM, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

You will never convince me that having a strong running game that you establish every time you step on the field isn’t a winning formula. 
 

I don’t care how many colorful charts and catchy acronyms you can come up with, if you can’t run the ball, you won’t sniff a ring!

Last four Super Bowl winners averaged 14th, almost league average, in rushing DVOA, while the losing team averaged 6th.  Winning team averaged 4th in passing DVOA, as did the losing team.

The BEST super bowl champion was 9th in rushing, the WORST champion was 6th in passing.

SB Rushing DVOA Rank
2019: Chiefs (14th) beat SF (12th)
2018: Pats (9th) beat the Rams (1st)
2017: Eagles (15th) beat the Pats (4th)
2016: Pats (16th) beat Falcons (6th)

SB Passing DVOA Rank
2019: 2nd over 8th
2018: 4th over 5th
2017: 6th over 1st
2016: 2nd over 1st

I agree that running is important, but it isn’t as important as it once was, and you can be average in rushing and still win a ring, you can’t be average in passing and win one anymore.

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

Last four Super Bowl winners averaged 14th, almost league average, in rushing DVOA, while the losing team averaged 6th.  Winning team averaged 4th in passing DVOA, as did the losing team.

The BEST super bowl champion was 9th in rushing, the WORST champion was 6th in passing.

SB Rushing DVOA Rank
2019: Chiefs (14th) beat SF (12th)
2018: Pats (9th) beat the Rams (1st)
2017: Eagles (15th) beat the Pats (4th)
2016: Pats (16th) beat Falcons (6th)

SB Passing DVOA Rank
2019: 2nd over 8th
2018: 4th over 5th
2017: 6th over 1st
2016: 2nd over 1st

I agree that running is important, but it isn’t as important as it once was, and you can be average in rushing and still win a ring, you can’t be average in passing and win one anymore.

In a way you are actually making our point, my friend. DVOA does not address conviction, it more addresses effectiveness.
 

2016 both Pats and falcons were in Top 7 in rushing.

2017 SB champs eagles were 3rd in league rushing (pats were 11th)

2018 both rams and pats were top 5 in rushing. 

2019 was the anomaly, KC was near bottom of league ....but still,  runner up SF was 2nd in league. 

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57 minutes ago, Vandy said:

In a way you are actually making our point, my friend. DVOA does not address conviction, it more addresses effectiveness.
 

2016 both Pats and falcons were in Top 7 in rushing.

2017 SB champs eagles were 3rd in league rushing (pats were 11th)

2018 both rams and pats were top 5 in rushing. 

2019 was the anomaly, KC was near bottom of league ....but still,  runner up SF was 2nd in league. 

His quote was “if you can’t run the ball”, so to me that is effectiveness.  Now if his quote was “if you don’t run the ball”, then your points line up.  Unwilling and unable are very different...Unfortunately for us, Dirk is known for both.

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Well, The best years we've had were when we ran the ball successfully ,, and often...  Proof is in the puddin....  We must be able to run the ball  and be consistent if we want to make any kind of run in the playoffs.. And we must run consistent just to make the playoffs.  It's a must ........ I do think we are going to run the ball more this season than we have in the last few years.

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On 7/9/2020 at 11:05 PM, Rings said:

If you watched that game with Fournette, he played terrible, he wasn't setting anything up other than another punt.  It was Week 3 against Ten on Thursday Night Football. His runs were for: 5, -3, -7, 0, -4, 0, 4, 2, 0, 0, -5, 69, 2, 3.  He had a long of 69 yards and finished with 66 yards lol.  He single handedly killed multiple drives that game, and if it wasn't for a botched punt and Mariotta being awful, that game may have a different outcome.

For comparison, I think we would all consider that a really bad game, here is how the two stats stack up.
He was 4.4 YPC, ranked 19/56.
He was 20% success rate, ranked 53/56.

Success Rate isn't a subjective stat, it is all about setting up the next down ahead of the chains and putting yourself in a positive situation instead of 2nd or 3rd and long.

Definition from Sharp Football:

"Success Rates:  Using success rates to measure efficiency is superior to traditional yards per play (per pass or per rush) because it adds a layer of context to the play:  the down and distance to go.  Example:  a 10 yard run on 3rd and 26 will add 10 yards/carry to a running back's average.  But that play resulted in 4th and 16 and thus, an unsuccessful attempt to convert a first down (and graded as an unsuccessful play).   Success rate is calculated in this manner:  A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.  "

If that's literally all Success rate is, then of course the graph looks like it does. If you run less, the opposing team expects it less, and you can crack off a few long runs and suddenly your success % is through the roof because the gross amount is less and the other team hasn't devoted as much to stopping run plays. If you run a lot then your % will be lower on sheer number of plays run, as well as the opposing team contributing more to defending against the run (which in turn opens up the passing game). That doesn't mean your running plays aren't having a positive effect.

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4 hours ago, Rings said:

His quote was “if you can’t run the ball”, so to me that is effectiveness.  Now if his quote was “if you don’t run the ball”, then your points line up.  Unwilling and unable are very different...Unfortunately for us, Dirk is known for both.

Dirk when he has to call a running play:

IdealisticLankyIndigowingedparrot-size_r

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11 hours ago, Lornoth said:

If that's literally all Success rate is, then of course the graph looks like it does. If you run less, the opposing team expects it less, and you can crack off a few long runs and suddenly your success % is through the roof because the gross amount is less and the other team hasn't devoted as much to stopping run plays. If you run a lot then your % will be lower on sheer number of plays run, as well as the opposing team contributing more to defending against the run (which in turn opens up the passing game). That doesn't mean your running plays aren't having a positive effect.

Not sure you understand it still, if it’s first and ten, you could gain 4 yards or 40 yards, that counts as successful.  The length over the 40% threshold means nothing, so breaking off a long run won’t impact success rate more than a 4 yard run.

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21 hours ago, Rings said:

Last four Super Bowl winners averaged 14th, almost league average, in rushing DVOA, while the losing team averaged 6th.  Winning team averaged 4th in passing DVOA, as did the losing team.

The BEST super bowl champion was 9th in rushing, the WORST champion was 6th in passing.

SB Rushing DVOA Rank
2019: Chiefs (14th) beat SF (12th)
2018: Pats (9th) beat the Rams (1st)
2017: Eagles (15th) beat the Pats (4th)
2016: Pats (16th) beat Falcons (6th)

SB Passing DVOA Rank
2019: 2nd over 8th
2018: 4th over 5th
2017: 6th over 1st
2016: 2nd over 1st

I agree that running is important, but it isn’t as important as it once was, and you can be average in rushing and still win a ring, you can’t be average in passing and win one anymore.

Exactly.

Falcons 2016 threw to open up the run game in many first-half game plans; until it was seamless and they could punish you for disrespecting the run threat with wide zone movement on a PA pass or gash your defense for overplaying the developing routes too quickly as you get just 1 box defender missing a key or run fit.

I, for one, am glad we “at least” may be going back to wide zone after whatever ineffective hybrid nonsense was tried last year.

Imagine Ryan with that run game for the 49ers. The Chiefs never come back if Ryan was throwing instead of Jimmy G. Shanny tried playing it closer to the vest but when he needed to throw he was left wishing he had made bank on that easy SB that was let slip just 3 years prior...

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20 hours ago, Vandy said:

In a way you are actually making our point, my friend. DVOA does not address conviction, it more addresses effectiveness.
 

2016 both Pats and falcons were in Top 7 in rushing.

2017 SB champs eagles were 3rd in league rushing (pats were 11th)

2018 both rams and pats were top 5 in rushing. 

2019 was the anomaly, KC was near bottom of league ....but still,  runner up SF was 2nd in league. 

From this thread we all see different elements in the mix...

Effective rushing can be in large part a byproduct of passing these days. Titans style teams are more rare as most teams need a “every down” type back capable as a receiver; and Henry’s of the world are more of a short-yardage specialist.

It’s good to be effective at running. Let’s get back to being able to do everything at least on that level.

That’s the idea. Be good at rather than just attempt; ala Dirk before abandoning it.

I think @Rings is onto the important point about 1st half / one or two score rushing attempts vs their effectiveness to extrapolate more actual cause and effect data but naturally teams run more with multiple score leads...outside of SB51 of course. :doh:

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Jamal Anderson and Bob Christian mauled defenses in 1998 as the Falcons lead the NFL in time of possession.  Funny, the Falcons been in two Superbowls, and the FIRST one was done almost strictly by running the ball.  Finesee teams can be up or down.  Physical teams can beat you at home, on the road, in snow, ice or rainstorms...

San Francisco, California, USA. 19th Nov, 2000. San Francisco ...

 

Comparing top 4 offenses, Falcons history. 1980, 1998,2012, 2016 ...

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Spts1 said:

Jamal Anderson and Bob Christian mauled defenses in 1998 as the Falcons lead the NFL in time of possession.  Funny, the Falcons been in two Superbowls, and the FIRST one was done almost strictly by running the ball.  Finesee teams can be up or down.  Physical teams can beat you at home, on the road, in snow, ice or rainstorms...

San Francisco, California, USA. 19th Nov, 2000. San Francisco ...

 

Comparing top 4 offenses, Falcons history. 1980, 1998,2012, 2016 ...

 

 

That’s pretty much the 2019 Titans. Chandler had a record for YPA that year; before applying a cutoff mark on min attempts. 9.6 YPA on 327 throws.

It was even higher than Ryan’s modern record setting 2016. I’m not sure why Ryan’s 2016 was deemed as setting the record other than Chandler’s lack of attempts?

EDIT: Must be a minimum attempts cutoff as in 2000 Kurt Warner has 9.9 YPA on 347 throws.

I digress...

Panthers 2015 was a good example of a dominant D paired with a ball control offense.

The thing is one dimensional offenses struggle vs the elite defenses.

What’s dumb is our offense did well actually vs Pats in 2016 SB. Problem was our defense was so bad we had so few drives in the 2nd half. They played keep away and were the “ball control” offense; even while using White more of a chain mover as a receiving back. It wouldn’t have led them to a SB win had we not gifted them opportunities to come back; in large part due to the large lead created in part by the high octane offense and some critical turnovers/pick 6 included by the defense.

Every year a team making a run has An identity or what they do well and they peak at it while doing enough elsewhere. We just let up doing what was needed to close SB51...run ball with a lead like that, take points when in range, and make their offense work for points...

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12 minutes ago, Schwarzwald said:

That’s pretty much the 2019 Titans. Chandler had a record for YPA that year; before applying a cutoff mark on min attempts. 9.6 YPA on 327 throws.

It was even higher than Ryan’s modern record setting 2016. I’m not sure why Ryan’s 2016 was deemed as setting the record other than Chandler’s lack of attempts?

EDIT: Must be a minimum attempts cutoff as in 2000 Kurt Warner has 9.9 YPA on 347 throws.

I digress...

Panthers 2015 was a good example of a dominant D paired with a ball control offense.

The thing is one dimensional offenses struggle vs the elite defenses.

What’s dumb is our offense did well actually vs Pats in 2016 SB. Problem was our defense was so bad we had so few drives in the 2nd half. They played keep away and were the “ball control” offense; even while using White more of a chain mover as a receiving back. It wouldn’t have led them to a SB win had we not gifted them opportunities to come back; in large part due to the large lead created in part by the high octane offense and some critical turnovers/pick 6 included by the defense.

Every year a team making a run has An identity or what they do well and they peak at it while doing enough elsewhere. We just let up doing what was needed to close SB51...run ball with a lead like that, take points when in range, and make their offense work for points...

Running teams are not one dimensional when done correctly.  As you pointed out, when Chandler DID throw the ball, it was DOWN FIELD.  This was because Reeves set up the playaction with a dominant running game.  The defenses had to play in the box and it opened up the deep passing game for the Falcons.  

Another way to beat defenses with a running game is what teams are doing with the mobile quarterbacks who have a running game to compliment them.  Tannehill for instance,  even though he has a workhorse at running back, he can keep it and run for yardage.  Thats the secret to the Ravens also.  The defense clashes down on the running back and leaves Tannehill and Jackson loose on the edge.  Josh Allen the same up in Buffalo...

Though this isn't play action, it gives you a idea of what Chandler was able to do because defenses crept up on the Falcons A LOT during that season...

 

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4 hours ago, Spts1 said:

Running teams are not one dimensional when done correctly.  As you pointed out, when Chandler DID throw the ball, it was DOWN FIELD.  This was because Reeves set up the playaction with a dominant running game.  The defenses had to play in the box and it opened up the deep passing game for the Falcons.  

Another way to beat defenses with a running game is what teams are doing with the mobile quarterbacks who have a running game to compliment them.  Tannehill for instance,  even though he has a workhorse at running back, he can keep it and run for yardage.  Thats the secret to the Ravens also.  The defense clashes down on the running back and leaves Tannehill and Jackson loose on the edge.  Josh Allen the same up in Buffalo...

Though this isn't play action, it gives you a idea of what Chandler was able to do because defenses crept up on the Falcons A LOT during that season...

 

The thing is you have to have a defense to keep teams close or running eventually just stops you from being able to come back because of consuming time. It's part of a game plan early if you are building a lead early, sure. That can be a gameplan to run first and keep away from their offense.

A  perfect example is Titans just last playoffs...they couldn't play shootout type of game with Chiefs and Henry was mitigated at a point in that game.

That play above was also a blitz, an obvious pass situation and pass formation.

Notice the blitzer is picked up by the RB? Dude...we hit Robinson and he is untouched if Freeman even MERELY does his assignment and delays Hightower.

The game has also since evolved quite a bit from late 90s offense; rules and otherwise.

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30 minutes ago, Schwarzwald said:

The thing is you have to have a defense to keep teams close or running eventually just stops you from being able to come back because of consuming time. It's part of a game plan early if you are building a lead early, sure. That can be a gameplan to run first and keep away from their offense.

A  perfect example is Titans just last playoffs...they couldn't play shootout type of game with Chiefs and Henry was mitigated at a point in that game.

That play above was also a blitz, an obvious pass situation and pass formation.

Notice the blitzer is picked up by the RB? Dude...we hit Robinson and he is untouched if Freeman even MERELY does his assignment and delays Hightower.

The game has also since evolved quite a bit from late 90s offense; rules and otherwise.

A dominate running team can hide a suspect defense.  The reason is the offense stays on the field longer than the defense.  Yes, you want a dominate defense, but you can win if you can play keep away on offense.  Atlanta had a very good defense that year, but it was also helped by the fact that the defense stayed fresh,  particularly on the defensive line.  Chuck Smith and the gang got to sit and watch eight and nine minute drives by the Falcons offense. 

Thats why the Falcons routinely give up big leads with the current team.  They score soo fast that the defense gets exposed.  Thats why Koetter said a goal this season was to improve the running game.  You can throw the ball all over the yard but if you have a great defense that stays on the field, you will lose.  Ask Buddy Ryan. Yes, the game has changed but a team that can run even today can dominate a game.  Baltimore and Tennessee proved that. Heck, the Patriots run more than people believe they do...

 

Kevin ryan GIF - Find on GIFER

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@Spts1 We are not Chan Gailey. Look at our average drive rank as an offense. I don't have the "outside of" stats but just in raw data we are generally top 10 in HOLDING ONTO the ball with Matt Ryan at QB; Top 5 some seasons or better.

Ryan helps us score and keeps our defense off the field. OUR DEFENSE is why they can't get off the field. Improve the defense and the offense is good enough. Case in point: 6-2 finish in 2019 when the DEFENSE improved and the offense actually did nothing better after the Bye; getting worse in many ways including the RZ by a lot.

^The defense improved without the offense doing a single dang thing. 

Yes, there are times to protect the defense. but you can't protect absolute bottom 3rd defense forever and you MUST score more often and more quickly when teams build a lead.

I agree our run game must improve. It was just fine from 2015-2017 before wheels came off.

Counting backwards since 2019:

7th Time / 2nd Plays
10th Time / 3rd Plays
1st Time / 2nd Plays
6th Time / 14th Plays (scored much faster, still generally ate clock)
1st Time / 2nd Plays

AVERAGE FINISH: 5th in Time consumed per drive and 4.6 in Plays per Drive (skewed by being average in 2016 and scoring faster but still a Top 5 unit)...

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22 hours ago, Rings said:

Not sure you understand it still, if it’s first and ten, you could gain 4 yards or 40 yards, that counts as successful.  The length over the 40% threshold means nothing, so breaking off a long run won’t impact success rate more than a 4 yard run.

I didn't say it would. I said that one successful run will impact your success % much more if you've only run 10 times as opposed to if you'd run 30.

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12 hours ago, Spts1 said:

A dominate running team can hide a suspect defense.  The reason is the offense stays on the field longer than the defense.  Yes, you want a dominate defense, but you can win if you can play keep away on offense.  Atlanta had a very good defense that year, but it was also helped by the fact that the defense stayed fresh,  particularly on the defensive line.  Chuck Smith and the gang got to sit and watch eight and nine minute drives by the Falcons offense. 

Thats why the Falcons routinely give up big leads with the current team.  They score soo fast that the defense gets exposed.  Thats why Koetter said a goal this season was to improve the running game.  You can throw the ball all over the yard but if you have a great defense that stays on the field, you will lose.  Ask Buddy Ryan. Yes, the game has changed but a team that can run even today can dominate a game.  Baltimore and Tennessee proved that. Heck, the Patriots run more than people believe they do...

 

Kevin ryan GIF - Find on GIFER

I don’t think it’s any coincidence John Elway never won a SB until Denver found a legit running game.

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