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Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.


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Every year I read some variation of this, yet every year I look at league leaders in team rushing stats end-of-season and see those teams in playoffs.   Top 4 running teams last year were raven

Establishing the run is one of the biggest farces in the game.  Keeping the defense honest and on their heels and not knowing what is coming at them is way more important, and if that means running wh

Yes sir... and there is a reason.  When you run the ball effectively you are almost always playing the game on your terms.  You’re also far less likely to turn the ball over Ryan’s two best seaso

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1 hour ago, Wjcorner said:

Who the **** rushed over 30 times in the first half? And what is epa

Carolina against us in 2006? I feel like they ran like 50 times against us. We were very soft team that year...they had Chris Weinke at QB and he threw like 3 times the entire game. It was pathetic...like watching a high school football game where one team is going to state, and the other team is 0-9

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41 minutes ago, ki46dinah said:

Carolina against us in 2006? I feel like they ran like 50 times against us. We were very soft team that year...they had Chris Weinke at QB and he threw like 3 times the entire game. It was pathetic...like watching a high school football game where one team is going to state, and the other team is 0-9

I was at that home game and we were helpless against stopping their run. They even went wildcat on us. 

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2 hours ago, Wjcorner said:

Who the **** rushed over 30 times in the first half? And what is epa

It is "Expected points added"

Basically it is a measure of how much better the play did than would be expected at that point in time (based on down, distance, field position etc). So if you looked at average yards per rush, I think the graph would look more like you would expect.

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Establishing the run is one of the biggest farces in the game.  Keeping the defense honest and on their heels and not knowing what is coming at them is way more important, and if that means running when the box is light, then do it all day.  But don’t run just to run if the odds and defensive front is stacked against you.  A handful of OCs are creative enough to use misdirection and make multiple plays look the same pre snap to throw teams off to counter that, but we don’t have that luxury.

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8 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

The Falcons between 2002-2006 did it all the time.  In 2006 we rushed for 600 more yards than we passed for.  Could you imagine that now...lol.  

FALCONS IN 2006:

• Passing: 416 Attempts for 2,300 Yards

• Rushing: 537 Attempts for 3,000 Yards

DVD seems like a lifetime ago.  People would freak out if that happened today. 

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9 hours ago, Rings said:

Establishing the run is one of the biggest farces in the game.  Keeping the defense honest and on their heels and not knowing what is coming at them is way more important, and if that means running when the box is light, then do it all day.  But don’t run just to run if the odds and defensive front is stacked against you.  A handful of OCs are creative enough to use misdirection and make multiple plays look the same pre snap to throw teams off to counter that, but we don’t have that luxury.

Every year I read some variation of this, yet every year I look at league leaders in team rushing stats end-of-season and see those teams in playoffs.
 

Top 4 running teams last year were ravens,  49ers, Titans, Seahawks.  Hmmm......

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Well I don't think can just ignore the run either. 'Establishing the run' may be a myth for your run game, but how does it relate to play action for example? I think the NFL game is too complex just to boil down to any stat beyond 'the team that scores the most points wins'.

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35 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Every year I read some variation of this, yet every year I look at league leaders in team rushing stats end-of-season and see those teams in playoffs.
 

Top 4 running teams last year were ravens,  49ers, Titans, Seahawks.  Hmmm......

Yes sir... and there is a reason.  When you run the ball effectively you are almost always playing the game on your terms.  You’re also far less likely to turn the ball over

Ryan’s two best seasons according to PFF were 2016 & 2017.  He finished as the #1 and #2 QB respectively.  Not surprisingly he threw just 534 and 529 times respectively.  Those are the lowest of his career with the exception of his rookie season.  
 

I guarantee that if we throw the ball under 600 times next year we win the division

Ryans Record With Under 600 Pass Attempts: 67-30.  Had a winning season all six years.  Playoffs in 5 of 6 years

Ryan’s Record With Over 600 Attempts: 45-50.  1 winning season out of 6 seasons.  One playoff appearance

Ryan’s QBR Rank With Under 600 Pass Att: 3rd, 11th, 3rd, 5th, 1st & 5th.  Averages 4th in NFL

Ryan’s QBR With Over 600 Pass Att: 6th, 6th, 9th, 9th, 9th & 14th.  Averages 9th in NFL

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31 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Every year I read some variation of this, yet every year I look at league leaders in team rushing stats end-of-season and see those teams in playoffs.
 

Top 4 running teams last year were ravens,  49ers, Titans, Seahawks.  Hmmm......

I'm not sure that is his point tho, or the point of the thread tbh.  Establishing the run and being a productive running team are not one in the same.

Establishing the run lends itself to attempts.  Carries.

Being productive means you actually net good results when you do run.

I believe @Rings is saying if you cannot be productive, don't try to establish because those are wasted downs that could have been spent with more productive plays.

There is also the very obvious elephant in this room when discussing records in that usually when you run a lot, you are ahead.  When you pass a lot you are behind.  This was covered in a different thread.  THIS thread is directly referencing the cliche that defenses tire down in the 2nd half which makes running easier which apparently is not true.

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2 hours ago, athell said:

I'm not sure that is his point tho, or the point of the thread tbh.  Establishing the run and being a productive running team are not one in the same.

Establishing the run lends itself to attempts.  Carries.

Being productive means you actually net good results when you do run.

I believe @Rings is saying if you cannot be productive, don't try to establish because those are wasted downs that could have been spent with more productive plays.

There is also the very obvious elephant in this room when discussing records in that usually when you run a lot, you are ahead.  When you pass a lot you are behind.  This was covered in a different thread.  THIS thread is directly referencing the cliche that defenses tire down in the 2nd half which makes running easier which apparently is not true.

You make some good points. I wasn’t meaning to diss Rings or Kayoh points, just stating mine accordingly.

Running the ball even with little or no gain isn’t necessarily a “waisted down”. It keeps the D honest and not able to just tee off on the QB every down like we saw last year. Not coincidently, we were one of worst teams running ball last season, and our QB was among league leaders in being sacked.
 

Running ball also eats up clock and keeps opponents D on field longer and ours on less. (staying the obvious, as I know you know that).
 

As @FalconsIn2012 showed above, Matt Ryan’s Win % is Significantly Higher when he passes less than 600 times a year. .....Even dynasty NE, it’s been forever since they were a “great” running team, they averaged the same paltry 3.8 YPC we did last season. But they don’t abandon the run, they mix it in anyway. 

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48 minutes ago, Vandy said:

You make some good points. I wasn’t meaning to diss Rings or Kayoh points, just stating mine accordingly.

Running the ball even with little or no gain isn’t necessarily a “waisted down”. It keeps the D honest and not able to just tee off on the QB every down like we saw last year. Not coincidently, we were one of worst teams running ball last season, and our QB was among league leaders in being sacked.
 

Running ball also eats up clock and keeps opponents D on field longer and ours on less. (staying the obvious, as I know you know that).
 

As @FalconsIn2012 showed above, Matt Ryan’s Win % is Significantly Higher when he passes less than 600 times a year. .....Even dynasty NE, it’s been forever since they were a “great” running team, they averaged the same paltry 3.8 YPC we did last season. But they don’t abandon the run, they mix it in anyway. 

For sure, never abandon the run.  There has to be a good mix.

In that other thread I showed how basically many qb's over 40 attempts a game drop their win % dramatically.  It wasn't Matt specific.  I agree with the premise tho, less passing is generally ups your chances to win.

To the OP, it is funny tho because we hear that narrative nearly every game it seems lol

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13 hours ago, Vandy said:

Every year I read some variation of this, yet every year I look at league leaders in team rushing stats end-of-season and see those teams in playoffs.
 

Top 4 running teams last year were ravens,  49ers, Titans, Seahawks.  Hmmm......

I never said that running isn’t important, but running effectively is.  Some people think “if you run this many times a game you will win more”, which isn’t the case.  Running the ball just to run it isn’t smart.  If you are dedicated to it, and you are averaging a high ypc and success rate, then it makes sense to run.  

For instance, our issue wasn’t just lack of rushing attempts, our issue was predictable early game and early down play calling and ineffective rushing attack, therefor we fell behind and stopped running the ball.  If we rushed 20% more our offense would have been worse, because our success rate was garbage.  Other teams would have loved for us to run the ball more last year.

The key to this year is can Dirk put a decent rushing attack out there, not just number of attempts, but an efficient ground attack.

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10 hours ago, Vandy said:

You make some good points. I wasn’t meaning to diss Rings or Kayoh points, just stating mine accordingly.

Running the ball even with little or no gain isn’t necessarily a “waisted down”. It keeps the D honest and not able to just tee off on the QB every down like we saw last year. Not coincidently, we were one of worst teams running ball last season, and our QB was among league leaders in being sacked.
 

Running ball also eats up clock and keeps opponents D on field longer and ours on less. (staying the obvious, as I know you know that).
 

As @FalconsIn2012 showed above, Matt Ryan’s Win % is Significantly Higher when he passes less than 600 times a year. .....Even dynasty NE, it’s been forever since they were a “great” running team, they averaged the same paltry 3.8 YPC we did last season. But they don’t abandon the run, they mix it in anyway. 

Didn’t take as one my friend.  Part of looking at win / loss & rush / pass attempts is the whole correlation / causation debate.  A lot of times if you are losing you pass a ton second half and if you are winning you run a bunch, like @athell stated.  Would be curious to see the same stats with what was the play calling in first half or include second half but when only trailing by 7 or less.

Either way, I’m extremely analytical, you’re more old school, I’m sure some where in the middle the truth lies but it creates great conversation and it helps us see the same sport in a different light at times.  

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15 hours ago, Lornoth said:

Ah yes, another weird, complicated statistic to try and make things more confusing. Why not just use YPC?

YPC is a horrible way to look at whether a running back did well or not anymore imo.  Although the data is easier to get, it can be very misleading.  Here is why.

1) Last year Henry had the best YPC, however if you remove runs from inside the 5 yard line, Chubb did.  If you are on the one yard line and score a touchdown, you did your job and it hurts your YPC, that’s dumb.

2) Last year Fourtnette had -8 yards on 13 carries.  He then a popped off a 65ish run and finished the game around 4.4 YPC.  Not all 4.4 are created equal.  

IMO success rate is the best look at running backs and their efficiency.  It truly shows how often they are putting their team in a positive situation, staying ahead of the chains, limiting negative plays, etc. 

With success rate, a 1 yard touchdown is a successful run, its a good thing.  Fournette shows he had a horrible success rate that week vs an average ypc.

Not all new analytic stats are worthwhile and some are kind of BS as they just combine other stats to make up something else.  But success rate is where it’s at in my opinion.

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Every time I think we as a community are past the old "run x times a game and you win" and "run to set up play action" tropes, I come back to see replies like the ones in here and lose my faith all over again.

The teams that make the playoffs are more likely to be teams that run a lot not because running gets you to the playoffs, but because winning does, and when a team is really good, they tend to run a lot more in the 2nd half to kill the clock and secure a win. Most of the time these teams are getting leads by passing, and then just sitting on the ball and not letting the other team get enough possessions to come back.

There are multiple articles regarding play action and every single study I've ever seen has basically found that running the ball doesn't make play action work better, and that NFL coaches haven't used play action enough for it to see diminishing returns yet.

Also, the truth about why teams who run a lot win has been getting written about for decades.

https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/
https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1898897
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause

@Vandy @Geneaut @FalconsIn2012 @athell

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Posted (edited)
On 7/7/2020 at 11:17 PM, ki46dinah said:

Carolina against us in 2006? I feel like they ran like 50 times against us. We were very soft team that year...they had Chris Weinke at QB and he threw like 3 times the entire game. It was pathetic...like watching a high school football game where one team is going to state, and the other team is 0-9

I Remember that game. We couldn't stop the Panties run game. I meanthey literally ran the ball entire drive and even ran for it on 4th down........ crazy game that night at the dome 

Edited by QuantumFalconz
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