Ryan Elite When Throwing 40+ Times

[FalconsIn2012]

Matt Ryan among NFL's best quarterbacks in pass-heavy games

 

The Falcons were forced to throw the ball a lot in 2019, and they've been in plenty of shootouts throughout Matt Ryan’s career. Fortunately for Atlanta, Ryan is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when asked to air it out at a high volume.

According to Pro Football Focus, Ryan has been asked to throw the ball at least 40 times in 115 career games. Ryan has achieved a minimum grade of 75 from PFF in 33.9 percent of those games, which ranks 10th among all NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 games of 40-plus pass attempts since 2006. In tracking this data, however, PFF found that Ryan can reach a higher level of performance more frequently than some of the other quarterbacks on the list.

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Among the 10 best high-volume passers, Ryan is seventh in games with an 80-plus PFF grade, reaching that threshold 21.7 percent of the time. He is fourth among those 10 quarterbacks in percentage of games with an 85-plus PFF grade, hitting that mark 12.2 percent of the time, and he is fifth among quarterbacks when that threshold is a 90-plus grade, which he has achieved in 5.2 percent of those 115 games.

"Ryan, again, shows that he may be a little underappreciated in league-wide circles," PFF's Sam Monson writes. "The 21.7% of high-volume games in which he has graded 80.0-plus ranks seventh in the PFF era and is right behind the best quarterbacks we have seen. His rate of even better games is also high, and he has one of the best rates of any passer at any grade threshold we set."

The players ahead of Ryan on the list are familiar names such as Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, but he has proven every bit as capable as those NFL icons at shouldering the load. Given the offenses the Falcons will face in 2020, including the Saints, Chiefs, Cowboys and Buccaneers, Atlanta could find itself in plenty of shootouts.

If that does turn out to be the case, the Falcons can feel confident in knowing that they have a talented offense led by one of the league's top high-volume quarterbacks.

[jamesmasen]

Ryan's elite and been elite

[Ians0280]

Yeah but im curious of what his recored is when forced to throw 40 + times.im not sure of it but most QB's records would be pretty bad.it just shows the lack of a running game.

[FalconsIn2012]

1 minute ago, Ians0280 said:

Yeah but im curious of what his recored is when forced to throw 40 + times.im not sure of it but most QB's records would be pretty bad.it just shows the lack of a running game.

Likely around .500

[Mr.11]

That's cool. I'd rather he didn't have to throw that many times very often, but if that's how the game goes I know we can rely on Ryan to deliver a solid outing.

[caponine]

But whats the record ?? 

[Drew4719]

I checked on pfr and it looks like we’re 21-42 when Matt has to throw 40+ times, so we’ve won exactly a 3rd of those 63 games. Sounds about right, you never want to have to throw it that much.

[PriMeTiiMe]

I am pretty sure most QBs have a losing record when throwing 40+ times other than maybe Brady. You never want to be that unbalanced but at least if we do get into trouble we know Ryan can throw us hopefully back into the game.

[Lethal]

23 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Likely around .500

I don't think it's even that high.  I saw a stat one time regarding this very thing and from what I remember (memory is fuzzy) it was very very bad.

[Lethal]

It goes on a little bit further but you get the idea...

[caponine]

8 hours ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

I am pretty sure most QBs have a losing record when throwing 40+ times other than maybe Brady. You never want to be that unbalanced but at least if we do get into trouble we know Ryan can throw us hopefully back into the game.

Brees,  Rodgers, Brady,  Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers ( when he was at his best). Alot of QBs could win throwing 40 times. Ryan is just not that type of QB. He needs a good running game 

[Lethal]

4 minutes ago, caponine said:

Brees,  Rodgers, Brady,  Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers ( when he was at his best). Alot of QBs could win throwing 40 times. Ryan is just not that type of QB. He needs a good running game 

Eh, not so much.  High passing numbers usually equate to playing from behind.  This isn't Matt specific.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/16/other-quarterbacks-pass-when-theyre-losing-tom-brady-passes-to-win/

When a quarterback throws a lot of passes in a game, it usually means his team is losing. Tom Brady is different.

In Brady’s NFL career, he has thrown 50 or more passes a total of 28 times, including both regular season and postseason games, through Saturday’s 53-pass game against the Titans. That’s by far the most for any quarterback in NFL history, but that’s not what really sets Brady apart.

What really sets Brady apart is that the Patriots’ record when he throws 50 or more passes is 19-9. No other quarterback in NFL history has come close to that kind of success when passing a lot.

Drew Brees is second in NFL history, throwing 50 or more passes in 19 games. His teams’ record in those games is 4-15.

Peyton Manning is third in NFL history, with 50 or more passes in 17 games. His teams’ record in those games is 4-13.

Dan Marino is fourth in NFL history with 16 games of 50 passes or more. His teams’ record in those games was 5-11.

e:

This is Rivers who you called out...

[ATLSlobberKnockers]

7 games last year with 40+ atts? Almost half the season not even trying to run.

[Shaggy 2.0]

2 hours ago, caponine said:

Brees,  Rodgers, Brady,  Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers ( when he was at his best). Alot of QBs could win throwing 40 times. Ryan is just not that type of QB. He needs a good running game 

This guy 😂

[1989Fan]

3 hours ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

7 games last year with 40+ atts? Almost half the season not even trying to run.

Well, we were usually behind by 14 at the end of Q1 so...lol

[AUTiger7222]

4 hours ago, caponine said:

Brees,  Rodgers, Brady,  Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers ( when he was at his best). Alot of QBs could win throwing 40 times. Ryan is just not that type of QB. He needs a good running game 

LOL!! Ryan haters are the best at making complete fools of themselves.

• Patrick Maholmes = 7-3 (.700)
• Tom Brady = 64-34 (.653)
• Peyton Manning = 46-49 (.484)
• Andrew Luck = 16-25 (.390)
• Aaron Rodgers = 19-31-1 (.382)
• Deshaun Watson = 3-5 (.375)
• Drew Brees = 45-76 (.372)
• Kurt Warner = 16-27 (.372)
• Ben Roethlisberger = 21-42-1 (.336)
• Matthew Stafford = 21-45-1 (.321)
• Matt Ryan = 21-45 (.318)
• Eli Manning = 20-49 (.290)
• Carson Wentz = 6-15 (.286)
• Dak Prescott = 3-8 (.273)
• Philip Rivers = 14-43 (.246)
• Russell Wilson = 3-10 (.231)
• Baker Mayfield = 1-7 (.125)

Link

The data in the link only goes back to 1999. I manually went in and updated the numbers to include Peyton Manning's rookie year in 1998. But because the data only goes back to 1999 all-time greats like Montana and Marino aren't included. I would have go in and do them manually. But basically the numbers prove that Brady is the exception, not the rule when it comes to passing attempts over 40. Just not a winning proposition. Patrick Mahomes is way above normal too but his sample size is still pretty small and the more he plays I'd venture that winning percentage would migrate back towards the .500 mark. But yeah, Matt Ryan is so much worse than guys like Rivers, Rodgers and Brees at "putting a team on his back and carrying them to victory."

[caponine]

26 minutes ago, AUTiger7222 said:

LOL!! Ryan haters are the best at making complete fools of themselves.

• Patrick Maholmes = 7-3 (.700)
• Tom Brady = 64-34 (.653)
• Peyton Manning = 46-49 (.484)
• Andrew Luck = 16-25 (.390)
• Aaron Rodgers = 19-31-1 (.382)
• Deshaun Watson = 3-5 (.375)
• Drew Brees = 45-76 (.372)
• Kurt Warner = 16-27 (.372)
• Ben Roethlisberger = 21-42-1 (.336)
• Matthew Stafford = 21-45-1 (.321)
• Matt Ryan = 21-45 (.318)
• Eli Manning = 20-49 (.290)
• Carson Wentz = 6-15 (.286)
• Dak Prescott = 3-8 (.273)
• Philip Rivers = 14-43 (.246)
• Russell Wilson = 3-10 (.231)
• Baker Mayfield = 1-7 (.125)

Link

The data in the link only goes back to 1999. I manually went in and updated the numbers to include Peyton Manning's rookie year in 1998. But because the data only goes back to 1999 all-time greats like Montana and Marino aren't included. I would have go in and do them manually. But basically the numbers prove that Brady is the exception, not the rule when it comes to passing attempts over 40. Just not a winning proposition. Patrick Mahomes is way above normal too but his sample size is still pretty small and the more he plays I'd venture that winning percentage would migrate back towards the .500 mark. But yeah, Matt Ryan is so much worse than guys like Rivers, Rodgers and Brees at "putting a team on his back and carrying them to victory."

He's the type of qb that when he has a run game and can play action is elite. Look at the years, 2008, 2010, 2012,2016, 2017 Dominant run games when the team went the farthest. Its not a knock on him but to ask him to put a team on his back and throw 40 times for more than a game is unfair. 

[caponine]

5 hours ago, athell said:

Eh, not so much.  High passing numbers usually equate to playing from behind.  This isn't Matt specific.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/16/other-quarterbacks-pass-when-theyre-losing-tom-brady-passes-to-win/

When a quarterback throws a lot of passes in a game, it usually means his team is losing. Tom Brady is different.

In Brady’s NFL career, he has thrown 50 or more passes a total of 28 times, including both regular season and postseason games, through Saturday’s 53-pass game against the Titans. That’s by far the most for any quarterback in NFL history, but that’s not what really sets Brady apart.

What really sets Brady apart is that the Patriots’ record when he throws 50 or more passes is 19-9. No other quarterback in NFL history has come close to that kind of success when passing a lot.

Drew Brees is second in NFL history, throwing 50 or more passes in 19 games. His teams’ record in those games is 4-15.

Peyton Manning is third in NFL history, with 50 or more passes in 17 games. His teams’ record in those games is 4-13.

Dan Marino is fourth in NFL history with 16 games of 50 passes or more. His teams’ record in those games was 5-11.

e:

This is Rivers who you called out...

Anybody throwing 50 passes a game is asking to lose tbh so i agree with you on that front. 

Ill take that one

 what was his average attempts for games won, 35 ??? 

[Lethal]

2 minutes ago, caponine said:

Anybody throwing 50 passes a game is asking to lose tbh so i agree with you on that front. 

Ill take that one

 what was his average attempts for games won, 35 ??? 

50, 40, the numbers are nearly the same.  40 seems to be the magic number.

As for 35, not sure...you'd have to do some data mining I'm not interested in doing.

[AUTiger7222]

31 minutes ago, caponine said:

He's the type of qb that when he has a run game and can play action is elite. Look at the years, 2008, 2010, 2012,2016, 2017 Dominant run games when the team went the farthest. Its not a knock on him but to ask him to put a team on his back and throw 40 times for more than a game is unfair. 

The numbers prove it's unfair for everyone or did you not looking the winning percentage of guys like Rodgers, Rivers, and Brees that you specificially mentioned as being able to win when throwing 40 times?

[AUTiger7222]

17 minutes ago, athell said:

50, 40, the numbers are nearly the same.  40 seems to be the magic number.

As for 35, not sure...you'd have to do some data mining I'm not interested in doing.

He's just moving the goal posts per usual.

[caponine]

7 minutes ago, AUTiger7222 said:

The numbers prove it's unfair for everyone or did you not looking the winning percentage of guys like Rodgers, Rivers, and Brees that you specificially mentioned as being able to win when throwing 40 times?

You completely ignored my post though 

[AUTiger7222]

6 hours ago, caponine said:

Brees,  Rodgers, Brady,  Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers ( when he was at his best). Alot of QBs could win throwing 40 times. Ryan is just not that type of QB. He needs a good running game 

 

4 minutes ago, caponine said:

You completely ignored my post though 

No I didn't. You said lots of QBs could win throwing 40 times a game and specifically mentioned Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Roethlisberger, and Rivers among those QBs that could win throwing 40 times a game. The list of QBs and their winning percentages when throwing 40 times a game proves you to be absolutely wrong. Don't try to move the goal posts and change the subject. Just admit that you were wrong and move on.

[caponine]

1 minute ago, AUTiger7222 said:

 

No I didn't. You said lots of QBs could win throwing 40 times a game and specifically mentioned Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Roethlisberger, and Rivers among those QBs that could win throwing 40 times a game. The list of QBs and their winning percentages when throwing 40 times a game proves you to be absolutely wrong. Don't try to move the goal posts and change the subject. Just admit that you were wrong and move on.

I thought u were talking about my other post ??

[PriMeTiiMe]

14 hours ago, caponine said:

Brees,  Rodgers, Brady,  Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers ( when he was at his best). Alot of QBs could win throwing 40 times. Ryan is just not that type of QB. He needs a good running game 

Incorrect but carry on.

9 hours ago, AUTiger7222 said:

LOL!! Ryan haters are the best at making complete fools of themselves.

• Patrick Maholmes = 7-3 (.700)
• Tom Brady = 64-34 (.653)
• Peyton Manning = 46-49 (.484)
• Andrew Luck = 16-25 (.390)
• Aaron Rodgers = 19-31-1 (.382)
• Deshaun Watson = 3-5 (.375)
• Drew Brees = 45-76 (.372)
• Kurt Warner = 16-27 (.372)
• Ben Roethlisberger = 21-42-1 (.336)
• Matthew Stafford = 21-45-1 (.321)
• Matt Ryan = 21-45 (.318)
• Eli Manning = 20-49 (.290)
• Carson Wentz = 6-15 (.286)
• Dak Prescott = 3-8 (.273)
• Philip Rivers = 14-43 (.246)
• Russell Wilson = 3-10 (.231)
• Baker Mayfield = 1-7 (.125)

Link

The data in the link only goes back to 1999. I manually went in and updated the numbers to include Peyton Manning's rookie year in 1998. But because the data only goes back to 1999 all-time greats like Montana and Marino aren't included. I would have go in and do them manually. But basically the numbers prove that Brady is the exception, not the rule when it comes to passing attempts over 40. Just not a winning proposition. Patrick Mahomes is way above normal too but his sample size is still pretty small and the more he plays I'd venture that winning percentage would migrate back towards the .500 mark. But yeah, Matt Ryan is so much worse than guys like Rivers, Rodgers and Brees at "putting a team on his back and carrying them to victory."

As proven by this post. But hey lets flip it into this

8 hours ago, caponine said:

He's the type of qb that when he has a run game and can play action is elite. Look at the years, 2008, 2010, 2012,2016, 2017 Dominant run games when the team went the farthest. Its not a knock on him but to ask him to put a team on his back and throw 40 times for more than a game is unfair. 

Completely ignored the fact that he said "Brees,  Rodgers, Brady,  Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers ( when he was at his best). Alot of QBs could win throwing 40 times" yet out of those 6 QBs, 5 of them have a losing record when throwing 40 times and the only one with a winning record is the one I mentioned originally.