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NFL DE performance


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I am analyzing statistics for NFL Defensive Ends performance in 2019.  I am using my own weighting system to deduce a total score.  The NFL does not have a standard for this and each analysis site does their own thing.  I wanted to make things even yet more confusing, less standard, and discombobulated.  This is not complete.  I am working on a list of 65 DEs.  This will take some time.  I will provide more when I have something more complete.

First, I am shocked discombobulated is a word.  I thought it was something made up that we kids liked to use when I was very young.

Second, I am a little shocked at the stats for the Falcons Defensive Ends, McKinley, Fowler, and the departed Beasley.  But first, some of the best total scores according to NaGaBoy.

Aaron Donald - 140.25

J.J. Watt - 130.25

Danielle Hunter - 125.75

Callais Campbell - 119.5

Some of the worst I have calculated.  Don't take these scores as condemnations.  I have not researched injuries or other circumstances that may have impacted a players stats.

Akiem Hicks - 15.25

Bilal Nichols - 25.5

Atlanta Falcons

Takk McKinley - 30.5

Former Falcon Vic Beasley - 65

Dante Fowler - 107.75

It is my impression that a DE needs a score of 50 to keep his position.  75 is good.  100 is excellent.  140 is Aaron Donald.  If you want someone analyzed sooner than later, just respond with a name.  I will bump it up.  Right now, I am just going down the list.    Fowler sounds exciting, but what does this mean for McKinley?

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1 hour ago, NaGaBoy said:

I am analyzing statistics for NFL Defensive Ends performance in 2019.  I am using my own weighting system to deduce a total score.  The NFL does not have a standard for this and each analysis site does their own thing.  I wanted to make things even yet more confusing, less standard, and discombobulated.  This is not complete.  I am working on a list of 65 DEs.  This will take some time.  I will provide more when I have something more complete.

First, I am shocked discombobulated is a word.  I thought it was something made up that we kids liked to use when I was very young.

Second, I am a little shocked at the stats for the Falcons Defensive Ends, McKinley, Fowler, and the departed Beasley.  But first, some of the best total scores according to NaGaBoy.

Aaron Donald - 140.25

J.J. Watt - 130.25

Danielle Hunter - 125.75

Callais Campbell - 119.5

Some of the worst I have calculated.  Don't take these scores as condemnations.  I have not researched injuries or other circumstances that may have impacted a players stats.

Akiem Hicks - 15.25

Bilal Nichols - 25.5

Atlanta Falcons

Takk McKinley - 30.5

Former Falcon Vic Beasley - 65

Dante Fowler - 107.75

It is my impression that a DE needs a score of 50 to keep his position.  75 is good.  100 is excellent.  140 is Aaron Donald.  If you want someone analyzed sooner than later, just respond with a name.  I will bump it up.  Right now, I am just going down the list.    Fowler sounds exciting, but what does this mean for McKinley?

Good info.   IM Going to bed now...tired with drank.   

 

Even though you used the same format with all the players mentioned....when I got to the Falcons.  I read....minus 30.5...minus 65..and .minus 107.75....I started getting depressed 

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16 minutes ago, RING OF HONOR said:

Good info.   IM Going to bed now...tired with drank.   

 

Even though you used the same format with all the players mentioned....when I got to the Falcons.  I read....minus 30.5...minus 65..and .minus 107.75....I started getting depressed 

LoL.  The space makes it a hyphen.  I could have been more clear.

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10 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Hicks is a 340 lb nose...weird having him there. Interesting stat tho. 

How did Beasley's 2016 score?

That could explain his low score.  There are some metrics calculated that are unreasonable for a NT.  I will recheck the source on that one.

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20 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Hicks is a 340 lb nose...weird having him there. Interesting stat tho. 

How did Beasley's 2016 score?

 

9 minutes ago, NaGaBoy said:

That could explain his low score.  There are some metrics calculated that are unreasonable for a NT.  I will recheck the source on that one.

Hicks plays end in their 3-4 defense. Eddie Goldman is the NT

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2 minutes ago, UnrealfalcoN said:

Hey man, nice thread, and it's definitely interesting. Can you include more info on what stats you used and which one you prioritized to create the scores? Thanks!

1 sack = 2 points

1 TD = 2 points

1 Forced Fumble = 1.75 points

1 Interception = 1.75 points

1 Fumble Recovery = 1.75 points

1 Tackle for Loss = 1.5 points

1 Pass Defended = 1.25 points

1 Tackle = 1 point

1 Assist = 1/2 point

I have them in a formula in Excel.  I just pull the numbers from NFL, ESPN, ProFootballReference, whoever has stats on these guys.  I generally don't follow stats.  They can be very misleading.  But, I think stats tell a more accurate story on DEs than possibly any other position.  Besides, I know little about most of these guys not in the NFCS or not in the playoffs.  I really wanted to know where our DEs rank.  McKinley's score has me concerned.

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1 minute ago, NaGaBoy said:

1 sack = 2 points

1 TD = 2 points

1 Forced Fumble = 1.75 points

1 Interception = 1.75 points

1 Fumble Recovery = 1.75 points

1 Tackle for Loss = 1.5 points

1 Pass Defended = 1.25 points

1 Tackle = 1 point

1 Assist = 1/2 point

I have them in a formula in Excel.  I just pull the numbers from NFL, ESPN, ProFootballReference, whoever has stats on these guys.  I generally don't follow stats.  They can be very misleading.  But, I think stats tell a more accurate story on DEs than possibly any other position.  Besides, I know little about most of these guys not in the NFCS or not in the playoffs.  I really wanted to know where our DEs rank.  McKinley's score has me concerned.

Thanks man. I see why Takk's would be so low. The only impact he's been making on the field was through pressures. You didn't include pressures in your metric

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1 minute ago, UnrealfalcoN said:

Thanks man. I see why Takk's would be so low. The only impact he's been making on the field was through pressures. You didn't include pressures in your metric

I didn't.  I found stats and I think they were called pressures on some sites and something else on others.  I think this one is very subjective and ranges all the way from making a QB concerned for his life to a light dusting as the QB throws a 60 yard TD pass.  I wish this one was better quantified in the stats recording.  I thought it would skew more important stats.  I think we could say something similar for assists.  How much assisting is provided on an assist?  I think it varies a lot.

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I'm glad another poster brought it up because I was just about to say that there should be some way to track QB pressures as well because that's a relevant stat. Tak may not be getting there while the QB still has the ball, but he's definitely bringing pressure. And I get it, pressure is just another way of saying "almost", but you still cannot ignore it.

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3 hours ago, NaGaBoy said:

1 sack = 2 points

1 TD = 2 points

1 Forced Fumble = 1.75 points

1 Interception = 1.75 points

1 Fumble Recovery = 1.75 points

1 Tackle for Loss = 1.5 points

1 Pass Defended = 1.25 points

1 Tackle = 1 point

1 Assist = 1/2 point

I have them in a formula in Excel.  I just pull the numbers from NFL, ESPN, ProFootballReference, whoever has stats on these guys.  I generally don't follow stats.  They can be very misleading.  But, I think stats tell a more accurate story on DEs than possibly any other position.  Besides, I know little about most of these guys not in the NFCS or not in the playoffs.  I really wanted to know where our DEs rank.  McKinley's score has me concerned.

I am obsessed with analytics, but analyzing a pass rusher and not having pressures, hurries and QB hits on this measure makes it very questionable.  In fact, any number you are using that grades Vic better than Takk tells me you are relying too much on a box score/result and not the behavior, therefor not as predictable of future success or how well they actually play/effect the game.

Let’s take Aaron Donald as the example since you brought him up, since I think most would agree he is the best defensive player of the last three years.  He had 926 total snaps last year, below is how many of each stat he had and what percentage those snaps accounted for.

Sacks: 14 (1.5%)
TD: 0 (0%)
Forced Fumble: 2 (0.22%)
INT: 0 (0%)
Fumble Recovery: 1 (0.11%)
TFL: 18 (1.9%)
Pass Defended: 0 (0%)
Tackle: 25 (2.7%)
Assist: 8 (0.86%)

This is why judging a pass rusher on box score stats is pointless.  Imagine being judged at how well you did your job on something you do 1.5% of the time.

Donald had 80 total pressures last year, which is 8.6% of his total snaps, which equates to a bigger sample size than every other stat you mentioned combined and then some.

It also looks like you are using total snap instead of % of snaps, which is the wrong way to do it.  Hicks was hurt and didn’t have the number of snaps and therefor looks horrible on your rankings, which is very misleading.  If you get three times the sacks on six times the snaps you aren’t a better player just because you were given the opportunity.

Sorry to be that guy, but in order for the ranking to be meaningful you have to look broader and bigger, and box scores won’t get you there my friend.

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PFF have a pass rush productivity rating, I'd be interested to see how this compares.

I think you need more granularity with your position groups, i.e. edge guys Vs interior pass rushers. Bilal Nichols, Aaron Donald, Akiem Hicks etc are playing very different roles to Danielle Hunter and Dante Fowler. Kind of apples to oranges.

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3 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

PFF have a pass rush productivity rating, I'd be interested to see how this compares.

I think you need more granularity with your position groups, i.e. edge guys Vs interior pass rushers. Bilal Nichols, Aaron Donald, Akiem Hicks etc are playing very different roles to Danielle Hunter and Dante Fowler. Kind of apples to oranges.

Yeah, it’s similar to pressure rate but it double weights sacks as importance.  It’s going to be a more realistic measurement of who played better.  

Can’t fault him for messing around with stats and seeing how things stack up though, something I enjoy doing a lot, just needs to split positions up, use pressures/hits/hurries, and use % of snaps (ideally only pass rush snaps and exclude run snaps and coverage snaps) instead of just total accumulation of snaps/result of a snap.

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