Jump to content

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, caponine said:

Not a bad year tbh 1100 all purpose yards and 10 tds is great production for what they signed him for

Im interested to see if Mostert truly does start with Mckinnon back. Mckinnon has always been the guy that Shanahan wanted in there

McKinnon probably won't even make the team. His salary is pretty Stupid at this point.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

McKinnon probably won't even make the team. His salary is pretty Stupid at this point.

Someone said he's basically playing for free this year , barely getting paid a million if im not mistaken. They want to see how his knee holds up, but i wouldnt be surprised. Shanahan designed his playbook for Mckinnon. With hiw versatile and athletic he was ( not sure if he still is ). 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

McKinnon probably won't even make the team. His salary is pretty Stupid at this point.

But thats what i initially thought until they traded Matt Breida. That he wouldnt make the team. Its weird they let him go without knowing how Mckinnon will do. Unless they believe that much in Mostert 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, caponine said:

But thats what i initially thought until they traded Matt Breida. That he wouldnt make the team. Its weird they let him go without knowing how Mckinnon will do. Unless they believe that much in Mostert 

Mostert and Coleman is still a decent one two. I wouldn't doubt that they sign Freeman.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Neither do I.  They’d be foolish to push 25 touches per game on him

14 rushes, 5 receptions would be ideal

Thats seems like the best ratio too me. Giving him the ball 25 times a a game is the worst thing we could do. He really doesnt need anymore injuries. The knees are enough 

Link to post
Share on other sites

If thats honestly all we get out of him then thats even less than Freeman was giving us per game as Freeman was giving us 17 touches a game at  76 ypg  between receiving and running.   Over 16 games Freeman would have a total of 1218 yards to gurleys 1195.  Gurley would have about 3 more TD's though.    To make that total worth it i would need to see those numbers on about 13 total touches a game.  That would be around 11 runs at 4.5 ypc  and 2 catches around 10 to 11 ypc.   Those would be legit improvements per touch over Freeman if it's taking him 17 to 20 touches to get those numbers then were gonna be stuck with about the same thing we were last year from our lead back.  If he is indeed putting up 4.5 and 10  on 19 touches although i think most of those would be running as even in his best year he has never had more than 4 catches per game i say he does 3 here and 16 running.  that 70 ypg running and 30 ypg receiving  totaling 1600 yards all purpose yards on the season.   Which would put him around 8th to 10th in last years all purpose yards category which isn't to bad or to much to ask for i don't think.  All the top 10 RB's had around a 4.5 to a 5.0 ypc as well so i put him at the lower end of that.   Which actually lines up quite well with his money as well as he is the 9th highest paid RB in 2020 at 6 mil from us so giving us 9th best RB play at 1600 all purpose yards would be right on point as far as value.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ya_boi_j said:

Then when he breaks 6 games in you’ve wasted millions. Not a great strategy for someone who’s had knee issues the past couple of seasons 

Not saying I'd give him 30 carries or anything, but I wouldn't give him 12 either. id definitely give him some series off, but it's a 1 year contract, I'm getting my years worth.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ya_boi_j said:

I think 2012 pretty much summed it up perfectly 

I understand what you're saying. I'm not saying to abuse him like a whipped horse. Big wins or big losses, let him sit at the end. Give him a couple series off through the game. But I want him as a big part of this offense, not a part-timer

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

If thats honestly all we get out of him then thats even less than Freeman was giving us per game as Freeman was giving us 17 touches a game at  76 ypg  between receiving and running.   Over 16 games Freeman would have a total of 1218 yards to gurleys 1195.  Gurley would have about 3 more TD's though.    To make that total worth it i would need to see those numbers on about 13 total touches a game.  That would be around 11 runs at 4.5 ypc  and 2 catches around 10 to 11 ypc.   Those would be legit improvements per touch over Freeman if it's taking him 17 to 20 touches to get those numbers then were gonna be stuck with about the same thing we were last year from our lead back.  If he is indeed putting up 4.5 and 10  on 19 touches although i think most of those would be running as even in his best year he has never had more than 4 catches per game i say he does 3 here and 16 running.  that 70 ypg running and 30 ypg receiving  totaling 1600 yards all purpose yards on the season.   Which would put him around 8th to 10th in last years all purpose yards category which isn't to bad or to much to ask for i don't think.  All the top 10 RB's had around a 4.5 to a 5.0 ypc as well so i put him at the lower end of that.   Which actually lines up quite well with his money as well as he is the 9th highest paid RB in 2020 at 6 mil from us so giving us 9th best RB play at 1600 all purpose yards would be right on point as far as value.

I did an analysis of advanced stats on our RB's, and a few other RB's in the league, some months back.  I'll see if I can find it and show why Freeman was absolute trash last year and why he got cut.  If I remember correctly, he had the lowest yards after contact of any RB in the league, or close to it, plus a couple other things that were ugly.

Edited by Beef
Link to post
Share on other sites

Here it is:

On 1/3/2020 at 4:46 PM, Beef said:

It wasn't all just the playcalling or the OL.  Freeman was not good in the facets that don't have anything to do with the OL blocking or the play design.

 

Freeman was 2.0 average yards after contact for 360 yards this season, and had a Broken Tackle rate of 8.2%, and a yards after contact rate of 54.9%.

Meaning he only broke tackles on 8.2% of tackle attempts on him, and he only got yards after contact on about 55% of the times he was touched by a defender.

And 2.0 average yards after contact is simply awful.

 

For some perspective, here's a few other guys in the league on those same stats:

Barkley was 3.2 average yards after contact for 835 yards in 2018, and 3.1 for 680 this season. BT rate 11.1%. YAC rate 67.8%.

Josh Jacobs was 3.0 average yards after contact for 717 this season. BT rate 17.4%. YAC rate 62.3%.

Zeke was 3.0 average yards after contact for 905 in 2018, and 2.9 for 786 this season. BT rate 10.6%. YAC rate 57.9%.

Nick Chubb was 4.3 average yards after contact for 829 in 2018, and 3.5 for 1053 this season. BT rate 13.8%. YAC rate 70.5%.

Leonard Fournette was 2.9 average yards after contact for 756 this season. BT rate 7.9%. YAC rate 65.6%.

Mark Ingram was 2.9 average yards after contact for 545 this season. BT rate 18.8%. YAC rate 53.5%.

Derrick Henry was 3.6 average yards after contact for 764 in 2018, and 3.2 for 967 this season. BT rate 15.8%. YAC rate 62.8%.

 

We have good reason to let Freeman go and try to find someone to replace him.

Brian Hill and Ito Smith were only a bit better than Freeman, but still well below the league averages in all these stats, too. So I hope we don't settle for just trying to turn one of them into our #1.

I just don't think Koetter is capable of scheming a good run game, but I do think a really good RB can do well in spite of Koetter.

I'm crossing my fingers for Etienne or Dobbins in the 2nd round.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, and to add Todd Gurley to this...

In 2018, Gurley was 3.0 average yards after contact for 774, with a BT rate of 9.4% and YAC rate of 61.9%.

In 2019, Gurley was 2.5 average yards after contact for 562, with a BT rate of 14.3% and YAC rate of 65.6%.

So looks like he had a slump in average YAC, but he still had a stellar broken tackle rate and still got YAC on the majority of times he was touched.  One of the things I noticed is they ran him inside a lot more last year than in previous years, so maybe that made a difference.  He does his best work when going outside the tackles.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...