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DogIsYourName

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1 minute ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

This is actually very objective thinking on it. When the NW announced the stay at home shelters 7 weeks ago, I made two predictions. One was that it was going to get significantly scarier and fast. The other was that it wouldn't spread as fast as we thought possibly because it's been around longer than anticipated. 

Like I said, I'm no doc, and I have done no testing just trying to think this through and a lot doesn't add up for me on timelines.

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1 minute ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I am 99% positive I had the rona in January.

I am hesitant to say it because some think I am a conspiracy theorist, but I feel the same except late Nov early Dec.  I am getting that antibody test, you should too bro.

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I hope they come up with a less uncomfortable method of testing. I got a flu test for the first time in my life and wasn’t ready for that. My sister got a covid test and she said that **** wasn’t it

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1 minute ago, ya_boi_j said:

I hope they come up with a less uncomfortable method of testing. I got a flu test for the first time in my life and wasn’t ready for that. My sister got a covid test and she said that **** wasn’t it

They now have finger prick testing for antibodies :) 

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If what they say is true, then by August, COVID-19 will mostly be gone, until November/December, when it will fire back up.  The real questions will be, how long before we have a vaccine, and do antibodies against COVID-19 stick around between seasons.

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3 minutes ago, athell said:

Agreed.

Agreed.  I think the only way they can let fans in is if they themselves get tested and at that point that is A LOT of tests.  60,000 tests times 16 stadiums every week (minus bye).  I don't know the answer either man, every idea has some immediate "yeah but".  Hopefully by then testing is much much better, I think that will be the key to all this (along with a cure and vaccine obviously but even then I think many will not take the vaccine).

I'm a nurse so don't even get me started on anti-vaxxers lol. I don't even care about the politics behind vaccines because I think it's irrelevant. There are definitely groups of people out there that physically cannot have vaccines though, and I think most everyone can agree on that part though. 

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2 minutes ago, athell said:

They now have finger prick testing for antibodies :) 

That’s good for the antibody testing. The initial test is the ***** though. Who the **** thought of sticking a q tip through your nose almost to your eye lol

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1 minute ago, tl;dr said:

I'm a nurse so don't even get me started on anti-vaxxers lol. I don't even care about the politics behind vaccines because I think it's irrelevant. There are definitely groups of people out there that physically cannot have vaccines though, and I think most everyone can agree on that part though. 

lol my man, and thank you for what you do during this time man.  Mad respect for all my nurse friends.  How you holding up man, you good?

And yeah, from what I have read even non anti-vaxxers don't want the vaccine because of how nasty this thing is to those with underlying conditions.

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As a STH, it will be interesting to see how teams handle it. I'm not naive enough to expect a refund, my guess is we get a credit for future seasons (akin to what airlines are doing). If they use a PPV model for a season without fans in stadiums, i could see them trying to count my STs toward that (but a STH who has 4 tix would be getting only the same deal as a STH who only has 1).

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7 minutes ago, ya_boi_j said:

I hope they come up with a less uncomfortable method of testing. I got a flu test for the first time in my life and wasn’t ready for that. My sister got a covid test and she said that **** wasn’t it

Dude it feels like someone is scratching your brain lol. Absolutely terrible. I thought I hated strep tests, but the COVID/flu testing method is even worse

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1 minute ago, tl;dr said:

Dude it feels like someone is scratching your brain lol. Absolutely terrible. I thought I hated strep tests, but the COVID/flu testing method is even worse

When I got the flu test I wasn’t ready. She came in with the swan and I told her you’re not sticking that in my butt are you. We got a good laugh but I was dead serious

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8 minutes ago, robertap said:

If what they say is true, then by August, COVID-19 will mostly be gone, until November/December, when it will fire back up.  The real questions will be, how long before we have a vaccine, and do antibodies against COVID-19 stick around between seasons.

Doubt it tbh

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2 minutes ago, tl;dr said:

Dude it feels like someone is scratching your brain lol. Absolutely terrible. I thought I hated strep tests, but the COVID/flu testing method is even worse

I'll take it over a strep test. My gag reflex is crazy, sometimes I gag brushing my teeth lmao

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1 minute ago, athell said:

lol my man, and thank you for what you do during this time man.  Mad respect for all my nurse friends.  How you holding up man, you good?

And yeah, from what I have read even non anti-vaxxers don't want the vaccine because of how nasty this thing is to those with underlying conditions.

Haha thanks man. Nursing is a second degree for me so I just recently started. Kind of funny that I just started during a global pandemic lmao. I've been "exposed" for sure, but every time I've had so much junk on that I've been fine. Most of the tests I've seen done have come back negative though. But pretty much every person that gets admitted to our unit gets tested. 

I know people who have had some nasty vaccine reactions before and they suck. Fortunately those are not super common

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2 minutes ago, Malachore said:

I'll take it over a strep test. My gag reflex is crazy, sometimes I gag brushing my teeth lmao

You're gonna think I'm crazy but squeeze your thumb inside your palm. Like your right thumb in your right hand. Place it in your palm, fingers over it and squeeze. Itll help.

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2 minutes ago, Malachore said:

I'll take it over a strep test. My gag reflex is crazy, sometimes I gag brushing my teeth lmao

Gagging or dry heaving is about the worst thing in this world to me lol. Totally feel you on that lol

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42 minutes ago, DogIsYourName said:

... I'd still like to know how you guys think football is going to be played this year.  Will it be just the NFL and not college?  Will some states, like GA, open up stadiums while others do not allow fans? 

Will players infected with the virus have to stay out for two weeks even if they have no symptoms?  Will we need larger rosters as a result?

I have not scoured in the internet but also have not really heard anything that makes sense.

I think everybody will be playing in 1-5 stadiums/locations that are considered safe.

There won't be any fans or very limited fans because HFA will be impacted a great deal.

They'll use the same hotel accommodations across these locations and litter the timing of the games out throughout the weekend, meaning Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

This way they can manage the area, the amount of people outside of the team roster and coaches that are needed or "essential" to the daily running of preparing for a game, and even take the same route, probably by bus to the area.

More than likely places with multiple high school football fields or college football fields close by and also have the least amount of cases.

That's how I would do it, if I decided to do it anyway.

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38 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

Testing and prevention is going to be the key.  If they can test everyone involved with making a football game happen, they can play games with or without fans.  

If they can't, one surprise positive test will shut the league down real fast.

My best guess is if it happens, it will be because they do weekly antibody testing of every player, coach, trainer, assistant, etc. in contact with anyone on the team.

 

 

Also teams, coaches, and executives would have to be only in physical contact with each other and quarantined from everyone else during the season.

 

Refs and broadcast crews would probably have to do this as well.

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Posted (edited)

Well, considering most of this country probably already has herd immunity and antibodies, since what we had in March was likely already the second wave of this virus, I think we'll figure out that re-opening things in phases, and just being smart about doing it slower in bigger cities like NYC, is going to workout fine.

 

Here is the flu tracker for NY State from October through first couple weeks of March.  NYS Heath Dept. official Flu Tracker

SNrySRS.jpg

 

The 2017-18 flu season was credited as the worst flu season in 50 years, but supposedly 2019-20 just blew it away by a +34% margin, making this flu season the worst since the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic.

Think about that and look at those numbers.

Weeks 40-46, there were nearly double the normal flu cases.  Weeks 47-2 there were nearly triple the normal amount of flu cases.  Weeks 3-6 it's back to double with a slow curtailing off.

And then suddenly, almost the instant that CV-19 test kits get rolled out at the beginning of March, the number of flu cases plummets to around 5% of their normal weekly amount... in supposedly the worst flu season since 1918.

 

Conclusion?

CV-19 was here already as far back as October 2019, and people were going to the hospital with both the flu AND CV-19.  But they weren't getting tested for CV-19 because it wasn't a thing back then.

The CDC estimates that 60+ million people a year get the flu, but the VAST majority of them are asymptomatic and don't get sick.  Most of us could go to the hospital right now and very likely test positive for one or more flu strains currently in our body.  But we have antibodies to them so they don't make us sick.

But, droves of people, WAY above the norm, were going to the hospital between November and February and testing positive for the flu.  More so than any time in the last 100 years.

Again, think about that.

In the year where we end up with a new virus pandemic, we also have the worst flu season in 100 years?  And then almost the instant we begin testing for that new virus, the worst flu season in 100 years nearly vanishes?

How is that reasonable?

 

Is this not a huge indicator that people who would normally have been asymptomatic with the flu were going to the hospital with symptomatic CV-19, but being diagnosed with the flu because they weren't aware of or testing for CV-19?

 

 

So, IF this is actually true, and CV-19 already hit this country hard, and when we thought we were having a bad flu season we were really just having both a mild flu season and the introduction of CV-19 at the same time, then this would mean what happened in March was already the "second wave" of CV-19, and it's quite possible much of the country already has herd immunity and antibodies.

And if that turns out to be true, then this means re-opening things back up, especially in slow and coordinated phases, might result in a much smaller "spike" than is expected.

And if that's the case, then it's very likely we would have a football season.

I'm hoping this is the case.

Edited by Beef

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1 hour ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I actually think football is going to happen personally 

Of course it will.  Team owners talk about the importance of the fans, but that is the icing on the cake.  The real revenue is generated by advertisers.  Without a single fan in the stadium, there is a huge amount of revenue to be made.  It is not like teams can layoff the team for the season and cut their expenses.  Owners are on the hook. 

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I'm missing the shizz out of Braves baseball right now!!!! I'm hopeful we are on the downside slope of this crap once and for all!

Keep hope alive people!

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2 hours ago, DogIsYourName said:

... I'd still like to know how you guys think football is going to be played this year.  Will it be just the NFL and not college?  Will some states, like GA, open up stadiums while others do not allow fans? 

Will players infected with the virus have to stay out for two weeks even if they have no symptoms?  Will we need larger rosters as a result?

I have not scoured in the internet but also have not really heard anything that makes sense.

It’s still just end of April. Things will look a lot different in a couple months. That’s when we’ll have a better idea exactly when.

I hope.

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13 minutes ago, Beef said:

Well, considering most of this country probably already has herd immunity and antibodies, since what we had in March was likely already the second wave of this virus, I think we'll figure out that re-opening things in phases, and just being smart about doing it slower in bigger cities like NYC, is going to workout fine.

 

Here is the flu tracker for NY State from October through first couple weeks of March.  NYS Heath Dept. official Flu Tracker

SNrySRS.jpg

 

The 2017-18 flu season was credited as the worst flu season in 50 years, but supposedly 2019-20 just blew it away by a +34% margin, making this flu season the worst since the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic.

Think about that and look at those numbers.

Weeks 40-46, there were nearly double the normal flu cases.  Weeks 47-2 there were nearly triple the normal amount of flu cases.  Weeks 3-6 it's back to double with a slow curtailing off.

And then suddenly, almost the instant that CV-19 test kits get rolled out at the beginning of March, the number of flu cases plummets to around 5% of their normal weekly amount... in supposedly the worst flu season since 1918.

 

Conclusion?

CV-19 was here already as far back as October 2019, and people were going to the hospital with both the flu AND CV-19.  But they weren't getting tested for CV-19 because it wasn't a thing back then.

The CDC estimates that 60+ million people a year get the flu, but the VAST majority of them are asymptomatic and don't get sick.  Most of us could go to the hospital right now and very likely test positive for one or more flu strains currently in our body.  But we have antibodies to them so they don't make us sick.

But, droves of people, WAY above the norm, were going to the hospital between November and February and testing positive for the flu.  More so than any time in the last 100 years.

Again, think about that.

In the year where we end up with a new virus pandemic, we also have the worst flu season in 100 years?  And then almost the instant we begin testing for that new virus, the worst flu season in 100 years nearly vanishes?

How is that reasonable?

 

Is this not a huge indicator that people who would normally have been asymptomatic with the flu were going to the hospital with symptomatic CV-19, but being diagnosed with the flu because they weren't aware of or testing for CV-19?

 

 

So, IF this is actually true, and CV-19 already hit this country hard, and when we thought we were having a bad flu season we were really just having both a mild flu season and the introduction of CV-19 at the same time, then this would mean what happened in March was already the "second wave" of CV-19, and it's quite possible much of the country already has herd immunity and antibodies.

And if that turns out to be true, then this means re-opening things back up, especially in slow and coordinated phases, might result in a much smaller "spike" than is expected.

And if that's the case, then it's very likely we would have a football season.

I'm hoping this is the case.

This is good **** Beef

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