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etherdome

Tremendous Off Season

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32 minutes ago, etherdome said:

There are a lot of TD haters on this board, but honestly, I don't understand that logic.  

This offseason has been tremendous.  Look at the improvement in personnel.  We have upgraded several positions:

Trufant is replaced by Terrell (a better press CB).  Freeman is replaced by Gurley. Beasley is replaced by Fowler.  Hooper is replaced by Hurst.

Davison is replaced by Davidson (a better pass rusher)

The Falcons have also acquired depth behind Mack and Neal.  

Seriously, this has been a very successful offseason.  

Tyler davison is still on the team ... isnt he ?

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I believe the state of the team is in flux right now.  We are coming off back to back disappointing 7-9 seasons and Matt & Julio are aging.   
 

You are correct that we did upgrade some positions but we were filling holes which is different than adding to watch you already have.  Gurley is a real question mark and most of TATF has decided he will be the pre-SuperBowl version of himself.   Also, Tampa has clearly improved and has a playoff caliber roster and we are still chasing the Saints.  I like the moves made but we are in an ultra competitive division and it’s arguable that Dimitroff and Quinn haven’t done enough.

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42 minutes ago, Dirtier Bird said:

Please don't call a rookie that has never played a single snap in the NFL a better press corner than Tru. That remains to be seen.

I agree. Rookie CBs will need a bit of time to get his feet wet.

33 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Or a TE with limited production better than a pro bowl TE.

I am a fan of Hoop, but if he stays healthy, Hurst will be as productive if not more than Hooper. Since being drafted Hurst has had more plays above 40 yards than Hoop and a better avg yards per catch. 

6 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

I believe the state of the team is in flux right now.  We are coming off back to back disappointing 7-9 seasons and Matt & Julio are aging.   
 

You are correct that we did upgrade some positions but we were filling holes which is different than adding to watch you already have.  Gurley is a real question mark and most of TATF has decided he will be the pre-SuperBowl version of himself.   Also, Tampa has clearly improved and has a playoff caliber roster and we are still chasing the Saints.  I like the moves made but we are in an ultra competitive division and it’s arguable that Dimitroff and Quinn haven’t done enough.

True, but we upgraded the ones we got rid of with guys with better athleticism, more tenacity and more dog in them.

Gurley still showed more than Freeman did last year. Fowler is a more complete player than Beasely. Davidson has a much higher ceiling than Clayborn. Cominsky was already showing flashes of being better than Crawford. Treadwell will be begter than Justin Hardy. Hurst is more athletic than Hoop, etc.

Only positions that I see will be a wash or will need more development from our young guys will be. Terrell over Tru and Walker over Campbell 

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1 hour ago, etherdome said:

There are a lot of TD haters on this board, but honestly, I don't understand that logic.  

This offseason has been tremendous.  Look at the improvement in personnel.  We have upgraded several positions:

Trufant is replaced by Terrell (a better press CB).  Freeman is replaced by Gurley. Beasley is replaced by Fowler.  Hooper is replaced by Hurst.

Davison is replaced by Davidson (a better pass rusher)

The Falcons have also acquired depth behind Mack and Neal.  

Seriously, this has been a very successful offseason.  

I think to assume some of these x > y scenarios is a bit premature...

To say that either Terrell or Davidson is better than their predecessor at this juncture...neither have played an NFL snap.  So I'd tap the brakes.  For me, both were solid picks, but the NFL is a fairly signficant learning curve.  My POV is that Trufant is still >>> than Terrell, and if Davidson has a 2020 similar to Davison's 2019, that would be a successful rookie year. But prior to his senior season he'd accumulated 7 sacks in 3 seasons.  The notion that he's already a better pass rusher than Davison...seems very April rookie optimism speak.

As for Fowler, I hope the guy he showed himself to be in 2019 is who he's turned into.  But the NFL is littered with players who have great 'contract' years and then don't live up to the contract they've singed.  We're not talking about a guy who has demonstrated a consistent level of play throughout his career.  And while I was no fan of Beasley, he was a significant reason we went 6-2 down the stretch.

Gurley...?  Yes, I'd rather have him over Freeman.   But he was not the same guy last year and the bread crumbs lead you to believe that his knee is not only a concern, but one whose health and condition could be a question mark on a week-to-week basis.

As for Hurst...I think he'll be fine.  He's not Hooper who I thought was overrated (certainly based on the contract he signed)...but he can step in and fill the TE1 role here capably.

Overall, what I would say the Falcons have done this off-season re-balance their portfolio so to speak with cheaper assets that have better value growth potential rather than inject new capital.

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12 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

I think to assume some of these x > y scenarios is a bit premature...

To say that either Terrell or Davidson is better than their predecessor at this juncture...neither have played an NFL snap.  So I'd tap the brakes.  For me, both were solid picks, but the NFL is a fairly signficant learning curve.  My POV is that Trufant is still >>> than Terrell, and if Davidson has a 2020 similar to Davison's 2019, that would be a successful rookie year. But prior to his senior season he'd accumulated 7 sacks in 3 seasons.  The notion that he's already a better pass rusher than Davison...seems very April rookie optimism speak.

As for Fowler, I hope the guy he showed himself to be in 2019 is who he's turned into.  But the NFL is littered with players who have great 'contract' years and then don't live up to the contract they've singed.  We're not talking about a guy who has demonstrated a consistent level of play throughout his career.  And while I was no fan of Beasley, he was a significant reason we went 6-2 down the stretch.

Gurley...?  Yes, I'd rather have him over Freeman.   But he was not the same guy last year and the bread crumbs lead you to believe that his knee is not only a concern, but one whose health and condition could be a question mark on a week-to-week basis.

As for Hurst...I think he'll be fine.  He's not Hooper who I thought was overrated (certainly based on the contract he signed)...but he can step in and fill the TE1 role here capably.

Overall, what I would say the Falcons have done this off-season re-balance their portfolio so to speak with cheaper assets that have better value growth potential rather than inject new capital.

Great post.  While I’ll take Davidson over Davison in a heartbeat, they won’t play the same position IMO.  Davidson will be our 3T in nickel and move outside a bit, too.  Don’t see him playing NT 

The good news is talent was never the issue.  We’ve had enough talent to win a SB since 2016

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

I believe the state of the team is in flux right now.  We are coming off back to back disappointing 7-9 seasons and Matt & Julio are aging.   
 

You are correct that we did upgrade some positions but we were filling holes which is different than adding to watch you already have.  Gurley is a real question mark and most of TATF has decided he will be the pre-SuperBowl version of himself.   Also, Tampa has clearly improved and has a playoff caliber roster and we are still chasing the Saints.  I like the moves made but we are in an ultra competitive division and it’s arguable that Dimitroff and Quinn haven’t done enough.

With the $ we had I think they did about as good as you could hope.  Yes, Gurley and Hurst are question marks but they did fill the positions with guys who could be huge difference makers that are hungry so I’m very interested to see how it plays out.  

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And... we're not done yet!   We get $10M in caps space after June 1st from the Trufant cut, which means we'll have money to spend when veterans start getting cut closer to the season.   That is enough $$ to pick up at least 1 or 2 impact veterans to plug holes as the season approaches.  

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2 hours ago, Dirtier Bird said:

Please don't call a rookie that has never played a single snap in the NFL a better press corner than Tru. That remains to be seen.

Trufant was terrible at press coverage.  He played off-man because that was his forte.  Quinn wants press coverage to drop completion rates within ten yards.  

I feel comfortable saying that Terrell will be better at press than Trufant.  

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17 minutes ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

And... we're not done yet!   We get $10M in caps space after June 1st from the Trufant cut, which means we'll have money to spend when veterans start getting cut closer to the season.   That is enough $$ to pick up at least 1 or 2 impact veterans to plug holes as the season approaches.  

We are at $2mil currently and our draft class will cost roughly $7m, putting us at -$5m, so when Tru falls off that puts us at $5m.  Unless we cut someone else we won’t be able to make many moves.  A lot of people seem to think we are going to make a big move still and I just don’t see it unless we cut someone else or restructure another player and hinder next year‘a cap space even more.

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3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Great post.  While I’ll take Davidson over Davison in a heartbeat, they won’t play the same position IMO.  Davidson will be our 3T in nickel and move outside a bit, too.  Don’t see him playing NT 

The good news is talent was never the issue.  We’ve had enough talent to win a SB since 2016

I guess I'll be Debbie Downer here, but I don't think your last statement is the case anymore.

Let's be honest...that 2016 season was spearheaded by a season for the ages by Matt Ryan which was fueled by a mind meld type bond he and Kyle Shanahan grew into a formidable coach/player advantage.  Since then, we're on our 2nd OC who most want out the door anyway.  We've seen what Shanahan has accomplished without Ryan...the same can't be said for Ryan without Shanahan.

Another component to that season was the crazy good health the entire roster was able to maintain.  We all know the 80 games started from the starting OL stat.  That's an extraordinarily difficult thing to count on.  And in the seasons since, the Falcons have been hit by the injury bug.  From my POV though, the health of the roster we had in 2016 was the outlier more so than the injury bugs that have hit us since.

But evaluating the roster now, for the Falcons to be considered true contenders...they'll need, just from their OL

1) An OL to see two Year 2 leaps from their 2 1st round picks in 2019.  This is a reasonable expectation but certainly nothing is guaranteed.
2) An aging Alex Mack to maintain a solid level of play, recognizing he's really not a ProBowl player any longer
3) The plugging of their weakest link at LG by either two underperforming veterans or a 3rd round rookie who is seen more as a Mack replacement post 2020.

...and looking at the rest of the roster

1) Have we really fixed the pass rush?
2) Our top 3 CB's are a) a 3rd year player noone feels great about to date b) a 2nd year player whose raw tools suggest he can be a solid player but his 1st year didn't blow anyone away and c) our 1st round pick who hasn't played an NFL snap.  There is very little experience here.  Meanwhile, a quarter of our season will be played against Drew Brees and Tom Brady.
3) Our running game will be spearheaded by Gurley who only led a Sean McVay led offense to the 26th best rushing attack in the NFL in 2019 whose YPC was 3.7 to the Falcons 3.8. 

I know that this is the time for optimism and seasons get made or broken by actual wins and losses and the momentum they produce.  And usually we'd know the schedule by now to understand where the (perceived) hard/easy parts of our schedule are.  But this Falcons organization will be on notice from Day 1...and any early negative momentum has a chance to snowball.  Fast.

Color me skeptical.
 

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1 minute ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

I guess I'll be Debbie Downer here, but I don't think your last statement is the case anymore.

Let's be honest...that 2016 season was spearheaded by a season for the ages by Matt Ryan which was fueled by a mind meld type bond he and Kyle Shanahan grew into a formidable coach/player advantage.  Since then, we're on our 2nd OC who most want out the door anyway.  We've seen what Shanahan has accomplished without Ryan...the same can't be said for Ryan without Shanahan.

Another component to that season was the crazy good health the entire roster was able to maintain.  We all know the 80 games started from the starting OL stat.  That's an extraordinarily difficult thing to count on.  And in the seasons since, the Falcons have been hit by the injury bug.  From my POV though, the health of the roster we had in 2016 was the outlier more so than the injury bugs that have hit us since.

But evaluating the roster now, for the Falcons to be considered true contenders...they'll need, just from their OL

1) An OL to see two Year 2 leaps from their 2 1st round picks in 2019.  This is a reasonable expectation but certainly nothing is guaranteed.
2) An aging Alex Mack to maintain a solid level of play, recognizing he's really not a ProBowl player any longer
3) The plugging of their weakest link at LG by either two underperforming veterans or a 3rd round rookie who is seen more as a Mack replacement post 2020.

...and looking at the rest of the roster

1) Have we really fixed the pass rush?
2) Our top 3 CB's are a) a 3rd year player noone feels great about to date b) a 2nd year player whose raw tools suggest he can be a solid player but his 1st year didn't blow anyone away and c) our 1st round pick who hasn't played an NFL snap.  There is very little experience here.  Meanwhile, a quarter of our season will be played against Drew Brees and Tom Brady.
3) Our running game will be spearheaded by Gurley who only led a Sean McVay led offense to the 26th best rushing attack in the NFL in 2019 whose YPC was 3.7 to the Falcons 3.8. 

I know that this is the time for optimism and seasons get made or broken by actual wins and losses and the momentum they produce.  And usually we'd know the schedule by now to understand where the (perceived) hard/easy parts of our schedule are.  But this Falcons organization will be on notice from Day 1...and any early negative momentum has a chance to snowball.  Fast.

Color me skeptical.
 

I respect your POV.  Just disagree.  With the right OC, we were a SB team in 2017.  I dare say we could have gone undefeated with Shanny in 2017

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1 hour ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Or a TE with limited production better than a pro bowl TE.

Hooper was smart.  He found openings in the coverage and made his receptions there.  Hurst is more athletic and is able to not only find openings in coverage but actually draw coverage away from our main receivers (JJ and Ridley)

So, yes, Hurst is going to be a better TE than Hooper because Hurst will not only get more YAC, but also draw more attention away from our WR's.  

The exchange from Hooper to Hurst will be a great boost to our offense.......even if Hurst's receiving yards are fewer than Hooper's.

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5 minutes ago, etherdome said:

Trufant was terrible at press coverage.  He played off-man because that was his forte.  Quinn wants press coverage to drop completion rates within ten yards.  

I feel comfortable saying that Terrell will be better at press than Trufant.  

Funny thing to me is after his first couple of seasons, the consensus was the exact opposite of what is being said now

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1 minute ago, etherdome said:

Hooper was smart.  He found openings in the coverage and made his receptions there.  Hurst is more athletic and is able to not only find openings in coverage but actually draw coverage away from our main receivers (JJ and Ridley)

So, yes, Hurst is going to be a better TE than Hooper because Hurst will not only get more YAC, but also draw more attention away from our WR's.  

The exchange from Hooper to Hurst will be a great boost to our offense.......even if Hurst's receiving yards are fewer than Hooper's.

I’m optimistic about Hurst as well.  Hoop always looked stiff and fell over with a slight breeze in traffic, or even if he thought there would be traffic and it drove me nuts.  Wish him the best though as he still overall did a really good job for us.

That stiff arm against the Bears will always go down as one of my favorite plays.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, UK13 said:

Tyler davison is still on the team ... isnt he ?

 

2 hours ago, NWFALCON said:

Yep. 

Marlon is more of an upgrade inside when in sub; doing AC & Crawford’s role, etc.

He will first compete to get additional snaps spelling Bailey.

Tyeler is still the base run DT. Grady can slide to 1T with Marlon at 3 when vs pass.

Edited by Schwarzwald

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