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Cowboys vs Atl draft


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6 minutes ago, Fired Up said:

The draft is a crap shoot, value at the end of the day is in the eye of the beholder. We like as people who follow the draft to think the draft picks hold some intangible value. Trying to compare players on a different team under a different staff and a different system has no correlation to what our team does and what our draft picks do. 

It's imperfect, for sure.

But if we end up with 3 pro bowlers out of those guys, and they end up with 3 duds...we'll feel good about it.  If it's reversed...we won't.  And if they all end up about the same...we will have given up a ton of value.

We get guys from FA, so it's not like you can't tell how good guys are on other teams.

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35 minutes ago, Fired Up said:

Kinda like I'm getting a good laugh at a know it all who knows nothing right now? 

 Value in the eye of the beholder huh? That’s something a guy says when they know deep down they are dating an ogre but just can’t admit it. Everybody else knows it, no matter how much you lie to yourself.

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You aren’t considering scheme/system fits for these players and what each roster needed.

Also:

What. Happens. At. Earlier. Picks. Dictates. Everything. After.

So, play that “wait another round” game; means others between your picks now do things differently than what they actually did do.

Hence: Hindsight is fallible at best.

Regardless of results later, it’s not accurate to look at the draft and say “we definitely could have changed this or that pick” if everyone did that ahead of you we’d all know ahead of time and “wait, we change our pick because you did that ahead of us”...see?

If you do a “redraft” years later and say take their players at the same spots?

^It doesn’t even mean they play as well for you if they aren’t considered as good scheme fits. Let alone what players play alongside them or their playcalling style within respective units.

It’s all hypothetical rather than a direct translation.

Personally, I think people have a sick fascination with grass is always greener. And...It’s based on negative mindsets, so data to support opinions made up in advance while trying to be “critical” toward a matter isn’t going to net you of a truly reasonable conclusion. Incomplete.

If it was as easy as looking back? No one would make mistakes. Yet, pick rates and during the unfolding of the draft is one big risk.

I’m glad we secured who we wanted. Catching perceived value on draft day is something made up of incomplete or presumptuous data.

Efficiency goals can drive a false application of that and you miss because you thought the draft was deeper until everyone truly knows years later. Don’t fall for that. A lot of variables exist beyond just waiting on positions another round.

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3 hours ago, jlrfalcon said:

They did pretty well but the problem for them is that they now have a WR they really don't know what to do with?

I still cannot believe we could not have traded our #16 down just a few slots and received an extra pick unless we were obsessed with A.J. Terrell.

 

3 hours ago, Fired Up said:

Have you not read/heard? Literally he was never gunna last past 19, maybe not even that far, our hands were tied if we wanted our pick of CB. 

Not saying AJ is the best, but he was the one ATL coveted most and didn't want to risk losing him over an extra mid round pick. 

Yeah, if we passed on him at 16 we might have gone with another position altogether in round one and still be looking for a potential CB1 with whoever we chose later. I have my questions about his readiness but taking him precipitated a run on CBs. If there was one more good one in round two, somebody would have traded up because literally everybody knew we were desperate to get one.

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3 hours ago, takeitdown said:

So obviously, our CB should be better than theirs, and our DT should be better than theirs, and our C should be better.

We took them all a round earlier than they did.

The point is, are they enough better to overcome not taking an elite talent in the 1st round?

Terrell and Davidson and Hennessy will need to end up A LOT better than Diggs, Gallimore, Biadasz for it to make sense.

This is just an example of value drafting vs get your exact guy drafting.  I don't normally think of Dallas as value, but they went that way this year, and they were very close to us in the round, so they're the easier comparison.

So the question ends up...is getting Terrell vs Diggs, and Davidson vs Gallimore and Hennessy vs Biadasz worth a first round difference maker?  Because that's exactly the difference.

The problem is you don’t know either draft boards. Dallas probably had Terrell High up their board. After he was gone, they probably valued a WR and a second round CB. If Kinlaw was there, Falcons probably would have picked him up in first, instead of going DT/edge guy in second. Falcons probably would have ended up with Kinlaw/Diggs... there are way too many variables in draft.

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I actually think the best draft/off season goes to the Cleveland Browns(again)

Two amazing tackles(Wills and Concklin) to pretect Mayfield, Delpit, Hooper, Elliott. Great additions.

if Mayfield Can keep his head straight. They have everything to be the best team in the AFC.. Great receivers, good o Line, good pass rush, lock down corner and a qb with High potential. I know people Said it last year, but this year I believe in Them.

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6 hours ago, Roanoke Falcon said:

Terrell vs Diggs looks like a straight loss for us. I don't think AJ Terrell can play in the NFL.

Davidson is MUCH better than Gallimore.

Hennessy is (according to Gil Brandt and Paul Alexander) perfect for our outside zone blocking scheme. I loved Biadasz, but his injury history and lack of specific scheme fit makes Hennesy the best fir FOR US. I wish Biadasz well;, until the Cowgirls play us. Then I hope Davidson wrecks him, takes his lunch money, and gives him a swirlie in the men's room.

Our 4th's I know nothing about other than what I read, which was mixed. But 4th-7th are valuable if they can contribute on special teams or as decent back-ups.

The Cowboys roster is different. Their cap situation is different. Their draft process is different.

What makes you think he can't play in the NFL?

Dude is a baller.

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14 minutes ago, FalconOdense said:

I actually think the best draft/off season goes to the Cleveland Browns(again)

Two amazing tackles(Wills and Concklin) to pretect Mayfield, Delpit, Hooper, Elliott. Great additions.

if Mayfield Can keep his head straight. They have everything to be the best team in the AFC.. Great receivers, good o Line, good pass rush, lock down corner and a qb with High potential. I know people Said it last year, but this year I believe in Them.

They had a good TE and added the highest paid TE then went and drafted a TE. I guess they like TEs

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4 hours ago, takeitdown said:

Yeah, that sort of ends up being the point.  Is getting "your guy" in a similar field of talent worth giving up value.  In this term it's very real value...they got similar players not even including their first rounder.  So it's equivalent to us giving up our first rounder.

Now, if our 3 guys at those 3 positions end up way better than theirs, great.  If not, it's  a great example of the cost of falling in love with "your guy" over value.

What you end up with is exactly what the Falcons have right now.....a roster full of the 2nd and 3rd best players that the team ended up with by drafting for need.... as opposed to the most talented team we -could- have had if the Falcons went BPA instead.

Many of the players DQ and TD have need-drafted have not worked out, forcing the team to sign expensive players in FA.  Then the team runs out of cap space, so we actually lose the few decent players DQ and TD -HAVE- drafted.   And, since we are heavy into signing FA's.... there goes our comp picks we should be getting for the players we lose.

Our cap problems are the kind a championship caliber team might have.  Not a losing team with as many holes as we have had and still -do- have.  TD trading away our picks just makes it worse.

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7 hours ago, takeitdown said:

Well, we would have Lamb in addition to Julio.  And 3rd receiver is a starter in this league.

But you could sub Chaisson for Lamb.

Point is, in a deep CB, DT, OG class...did we get value?  If all 3 of those players end up being better than all of their 3, then maybe.  If they're a lot better, then definitely.  If they're similar, then obviously it wasn't worth giving up the 1st in value.

Chaisson's 'value' was as a pass rusher or SLB.  Staff seems happy enough with Fowler, Takk, Means etc..at edge and we didn't address SLB until the 4th so his value in our scheme was greatly diminished.

I'd have been supportive of a Chaisson/Diggs 1-2 draft but Terrell/Davidson moves the needle WAY more for me and are better fits for what we like to do.

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