Jump to content

With all this "Falcons Trade-Up" talk, let's discuss the cost


g-dawg
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, jlrfalcon said:

You still cannot ignore the intangible human factor in this.

This is why everyone does not go to the car dealership and pay the window sticker price.

 

The Redskins really do not "need" Chase Young and would probably take a good offer for him.  I agree it would take our 1st, 2nd and next year's 1st but that additional pick is really the bargaining point - maybe a 4th instead of a 3rd?

 

I also really see TD and Quinn both seeing this as a must win pick that must start and produce its rookie season not a year from now.  And, they really do not care about whether we have next year's 1st around or not.

Young - expensive but 95% chance of success?

Kinlaw - maybe a minor trade up but 75% chance of success?

Chaisson - maybe at #16 but 60% chance of success?

95%? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, g-dawg said:

I know there is always going to be "trade-up" talk with Dimitroff - it is rather significant that he has traded up in 1st round 3 times in 12 years - but he only had the one major move.

I do sense that TD is more likely than ever to trade-up this year w/ his job on the line - believe he wants a difference maker on defense and will go get one.   

Personally, I don't believe Falcons are seriously interested in Chaisson - he will be there at #16 but I don't think they will take him - too little production and too much projection.

One player’s not gonna change this team. Even the trade for Julio was a costly trade in terms of neglecting other areas of team, which eventually cultivated in 2013-15 seasons. Nobody really likes hearing that, but it’s true. And if not careful, putting all our eggs in one draft basket would have even more dire consequences this time around with both Matt and Julio on the back 9 of their careers.

More often than not, desperate teams trade up. Which is why we may do it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, jlrfalcon said:

Do you have any doubt that if the Falcons drafted Young, he would essentially be forced to start no matter his preseason?  About the only thing that would keep him from playing would be an injury or off-field problem.

Whomever they draft at 16 (and at 47, for that matter) is gonna start bro. I’m not following you. 
 

I was questioning your belief that Young was a virtual lock of being a success.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, PokerSteve said:

Don't see why they felt driven to go after another TE when we have Graham. Neither have that much experience, so getting Hurst isn't grabbing an established productive TE for giving up that #55 pick. I would've given up less or not gotten Hurst at all, but I ain't running this circus. :lol:

I am from South Carolina. Hurst is for real, you will love him!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Vandy said:

Whomever they draft at 16 (and at 47, for that matter) is gonna start bro. I’m not following you. 

If they draft C. J. Henderson, would you guarantee he would start immediately over Oliver and Sheffield (assuming Allen/Neal/Kazee also in the secondary)?

If they draft Kinlaw, would you see him definitely starting over Davison in week 1?

I am not saying Henderson and Kinlaw would not increase their playing time and fully start by the end of the season, but they would not have the weight on their shoulders to succeed from day one like Young would.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, jlrfalcon said:

If they draft C. J. Henderson, would you guarantee he would start immediately over Oliver and Sheffield (assuming Allen/Neal/Kazee also in the secondary)?

If they draft Kinlaw, would you see him definitely starting over Davison in week 1?

I am not saying Henderson and Kinlaw would not increase their playing time and fully start by the end of the season, but they would not have the weight on their shoulders to succeed from day one like Young would.

Definitely,  Sheff would move to slot. And yes, Kinlaw would also be a Day 1 starter.

Again, I’m not understanding where you’re coming from with this “weight on his shoulders” argument. You do know there’s been plenty of top pick busts, yes? (And I’m not at all saying young will join them)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

Detroit traded away their #1 corner and there is an extremely highly rated one sitting their at #3 overall where the draft starts.   If no one is moving up for Tua nor Herbert, then I don’t see anyone moving at all.

Sometimes the most logical outcome actually happens.

OKUDAH to Detroit at #3.

They signed Tru and still have Coleman at CB. CB isn't their worst position. They released their starting MLB so Simmons could be in play here. Heard on NFL SiriusXM that alot of teams weren't impressed with Okudah at the combine . They view him as a top 10 pick....not top 5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, lju713 said:

They signed Tru and still have Coleman at CB. CB isn't their worst position. They released their starting MLB so Simmons could be in play here. Heard on NFL SiriusXM that alot of teams weren't impressed with Okudah at the combine . They view him as a top 10 pick....not top 5.

Yup. My best guess they trade down to a QB hungry team  (i. e. Miami For Tua) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Vandy said:

One player’s not gonna change this team. Even the trade for Julio was a costly trade in terms of neglecting other areas of team, which eventually cultivated in 2013-15 seasons. And if not careful, putting all our eggs in one draft basket would have even more dire consequences this time around.

More often than not, desperate teams trade up. Which is why we may do it. 

Very well said....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Simmons and okudah are not locks for the top 4 at all...I think the trade up rumors are in case one of them falls. I think the Lions trade down with a team coming up for a qb, the Giants could easily go wirfs also. I'm telling ya, one, if not both of those guys are falling out of the top 5. 

To me this is the best case scenario, best CB or guy like Simmons falling enough...as it's likely just too rich to go up for Young that far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, g-dawg said:

I would probably do any of those trades for any of those players w/ exception of Henderson.   I would sit at #16 and draft Henderson but I wouldn't trade up for him as he is the least difference maker of all those guys - really good but don't know if great.

I don’t say it much, but I’m a huge fan of your work and enjoy your write ups. I don’t have to agree to get an extremely good read. Man, it gets more and more impressive every year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Vandy said:

One player’s not gonna change this team. Even the trade for Julio was a costly trade in terms of neglecting other areas of team, which eventually cultivated in 2013-15 seasons. And if not careful, putting all our eggs in one draft basket would have even more dire consequences this time around with both Matt and Julio on the back 9 of their careers.

More often than not, desperate teams trade up. Which is why we may do it. 

That is absolutely correct.  It is one thing to trade away a second rounder this year to move up a few spots, it is a whole other thing to consider trading away a future first rounder.  

As mentioned, Julio and Matt are "on the back 9" of their careers.  An injury to Matt could mean that we will be looking for a starting QB as early as next year.  With the good QB prospects expected to enter the draft in the next two years, it would be a monumental mistake to leave ourselves without the resources to build anew.

I would love to have Young, Okudah or Simmons, but not one of them will win a championship nor can any one of them ever compensate for the risk of not having a quality QB going forward.

In hindsight, I would have preferred we lost three more games to have a legitimate shot at drafting Simmons, but I know that no one loses on purpose......jobs are on the line.  

TD just has to figure out how to improve the defense without gashing the future of this team.  Don't forget, if the team does poorly this season, Quinn's back side is on the line........but TD may still survive.  So, he may not be so enamored with leaving the cupboard bare for the next couple of seasons.    

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

If we needed to move up to top 4, we should use Ridley as an asset to completely offset the cost in terms of draft capital.

Trade Ridley and 16th to NYG for 3rd overall and additional 3rd round pick.  Then draft Schenault Jr

Ridley is great, but he will hold little leverage in this draft class with how good this wr group is.  He would likely be 4th or 5th in this group if he was coming out this year.  No way NY does this when they can trade down a few spots and still take Jeudy who is a better version of him coming out and will be there for five years cheap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Vandy said:

One player’s not gonna change this team. Even the trade for Julio was a costly trade in terms of neglecting other areas of team, which eventually cultivated in 2013-15 seasons. Nobody really likes hearing that, but it’s true. And if not careful, putting all our eggs in one draft basket would have even more dire consequences this time around with both Matt and Julio on the back 9 of their careers.

More often than not, desperate teams trade up. Which is why we may do it. 

Yeah I am not really having it on how Julio trade hurt us.   There are too many busts and too many “meh” players drafted by Dimitroff and every other NFL GM to say that trade hurt us.  Believe the cost was a 1st, 2nd and a 4th (maybe 2 4ths) - don’t say “we gave up two firsts” as we exchanged firsts and gave up the rest to move up.  As Cleveland side of things perfectly illustrated on the ultimate picks - picks do not equal players.    There is no way to know exactly how many of those picks would have been decent players but the 3-4 picks it cost us, we would be lucky if two were players - and they likely would have been “meh” types.  
 

No sir, what killed the Falcons is the following year with the good picks they had, they drafted Peter Konz and Puddin’ (Lamar Holmes) and that had nothing to do with Julio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Yeah I am not really having it on how Julio trade hurt us.   There are too many busts and too many “meh” players drafted by Dimitroff and every other NFL GM to say that trade hurt us.  Believe the cost was a 1st, 2nd and a 4th (maybe 2 4ths) - don’t say “we gave up two firsts” as we exchanged firsts and gave up the rest to move up.  As Cleveland side of things perfectly illustrated on the ultimate picks - picks do not equal players.    There is no way to know exactly how many of those picks would have been decent players but the 3-4 picks it cost us, we would be lucky if two were players - and they likely would have been “meh” types.  
 

No sir, what killed the Falcons is the following year with the good picks they had, they drafted Peter Konz and Puddin’ (Lamar Holmes) and that had nothing to do with Julio.

What Exactly is it about 10-22 you don’t understand G?  

Cleveland’s incompetence doesn’t prove anything, other than that they’re, well, incompetent.

I’m as big a fan of Julio in here, he’s a great player. You mockers clamoring for another trade up can deny it all you want, but that trade contributed to the resulting downward spiral. And like I said before, now our QB (as well as Julio) are on the downward slope of their careers, which wasn’t the case before. The long-term cost of this trade up will be much greater.
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...