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With all this "Falcons Trade-Up" talk, let's discuss the cost


g-dawg
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OK, figured today would be the day to discuss - and we always knew this day would come when we would be discussing Tommy Hairgel making an aggressive move up the board.    I always try and keep an open mind about going up or back - for the most part, I am happy w/ a GM that isn't content to just sit at his designated spots and do nothing.   The trading of the extra 2nd round pick (garnered from New England in Sanu Trade) to grab Hurst definitely hurt our ability to be aggressive w/o severe pain to an overall draft class.   Overall, I like the move to get Hurst and believe it likely to pay dividends - believe Hurst was criminally underused w/ Baltimore and much of it attributed to his injury the previous year while a young dynamic QB built rapport w/ Mark Andrews.

So let's look at the draft capital the Falcons have - and what it would take to move around the board, shall we?

 

RD1   RD2   RD3   RD4   RD5   RD6   RD7  
PK/TM   PK/TM   PK/TM   PK/TM   PK/TM   PK/TM   PK/TM  
  1  CIN 3000   33  CIN 580   65  CIN 265   107  CIN 80   147  CIN 31.4   180  CIN 18.2   215  CIN 4.2
  2  WAS 2600   34  IND 560   66  WAS 260   108  WAS 78   148  CAR 31   181  DEN 17.8   216  WAS 3.8
  3  DET 2200   35  DET 550   67  DET 255   109  DET 76   149  DET 30.6   182  DET 17.4   217  SF 3.4
  4  NYG 1800   36  NYG 540   68  NYJ 250   110  NYG 74   150  NYG 30.2   183  NYG 17   218  NYG 3
  5  MIA 1700   37  LAC 530   69  CAR 245   111  HOU 72   151  LAC 29.8   184  CAR 16.6   219  MIN 2.6
  6  LAC 1600   38  CAR 520   70  MIA 240   112  LAC 70   152  CAR 29.4   185  MIA 16.2   220  LAC 2.3
  7  CAR 1500   39  MIA 510   71  LAC 235   113  CAR 68   153  MIA 29   186  LAC 15.8   221  CAR 2
  8  ARI 1400   40  HOU 500   72  ARI 230   114  ARI 66   154  MIA 28.6   187  CLE 15.4   222  ARI 1.7
  9  JAX 1350   41  CLE 490   73  JAX 225   115  CLE 64   155  MIN 28.2   188  BUF 15   223  JAX 1.4
  10  CLE 1300   42  JAX 480   74  CLE 220   116  JAX 62   156  SF 27.8   189  JAX 14.6   224  TEN 1.1
  11  NYJ 1250   43  CHI 470   75  IND 215   117  TB 60   157  JAX 27.4   190  PHI 14.2   225  BAL 1
  12  LV 1200   44  IND 460   76  TB 210   118  DEN 58   158  NYJ 27   191  NYJ 13.8   226  CHI 1
  13  SF 1150   45  TB 450   77  DEN 205   119  ATL 56   159  LV 26.6   192  GB 13.4   227  MIA 1
  14  TB 1100   46  DEN 440   78  ATL 200   120  NYJ 54   160  IND 26.2   193  IND 13   228  ATL 1
  15  DEN 1050   47  ATL 430   79  NYJ 195   121  LV 52   161  TB 25.8   194  TB 12.6   229  WAS 1
  16  ATL 1000   48  NYJ 420   80  LV 190   122  IND 50   162  WAS 25.4   195  NE 12.2   230  NE 1
  17  DAL 950   49  PIT 410   81  LV 185   123  DAL 49   163  CHI 25   196  CHI 11.8   231  DAL 1
  18  MIA 900   50  CHI 400   82  DAL 180   124  PIT 48   164  DAL 24.6   197  IND 11.4   232  PIT 1
  19  LV 875   51  DAL 390   83  DEN 175   125  NE 47   165  JAX 24.2   198  PIT 11   233  CHI 1
  20  JAX 850   52  LAR 380   84  LAR 170   126  LAR 46   166  DET 23.8   199  LAR 10.6   234  LAR 1
  21  PHI 800   53  PHI 370   85  DET 165   127  PHI 45   167  BUF 23.4   200  CHI 10.2   235  DET 1
  22  MIN 780   54  BUF 360   86  BUF 160   128  BUF 44   168  PHI 23   201  MIN 9.8   236  GB 1
  23  NE 760   55  BAL 350   87  NE 155   129  BAL 43   169  NO 22.6   202  ARI 9.4   237  TEN 1
  24  NO 740   56  MIA 340   88  NO 150   130  NO 42   170  BAL 22.2   203  NO 9   238  NYG 1
  25  MIN 720   57  LAR 330   89  MIN 145   131  ARI 41   171  HOU 21.8   204  NE 8.6   239  BUF 1
  26  MIA 700   58  MIN 320   90  HOU 140   132  MIN 40   172  NE 21.4   205  MIN 8.2   240  HOU 1
  27  SEA 680   59  SEA 310   91  LV 136   133  SEA 39.5   173  MIA 21   206  JAX 7.8   241  NE 1
  28  BAL 660   60  BAL 300   92  BAL 132   134  BAL 39   174  TEN 20.6   207  BUF 7.4   242  GB 1
  29  TEN 640   61  TEN 292   93  TEN 128   135  PIT 38.5   175  GB 20.2   208  GB 7   243  TEN 1
  30  GB 620   62  GB 284   94  GB 124   136  GB 38   176  SF 19.8   209  GB 6.6   244  CLE 1
  31  SF 600   63  KC 276   95  DEN 120   137  JAX 37.5   177  KC 19.4   210  SF 6.2   245  SF 1
  32  KC 590   64  SEA 270   96  KC 116   138  KC 37   178  DEN 19   211  NYJ 5.8   246  MIA 1
                97  CLE 112   139  TB 36.5   179  DAL 18.6   212  NE 5.4   247  NYG 1
                98  NE 108   140  JAX 36          213  NE 5   248  HOU 1
                99  NYG 104   141  MIA 35.5          214  SEA 4.6   249  MIN 1
                100  NE 100   142  WAS 35                 250  HOU 1
                101  SEA 96   143  ATL 34.5                 251  MIA 1
                102  PIT 92   144  SEA 34                 252  DEN 1
                103  PHI 88   145  PHI 33.5                 253  MIN 1
                104  LAR 86   146  PHI 33                 254  DEN 1
                105  MIN 84                        255  NYG 1
                106  BAL 82                            

 

 

The Dream Target:  DE Chase Young - Ohio State

The spot needed:  #2 overall (Washington - 2,600pts)

The Cost to get to Redskins #2: #16 (1,000pts) #47(430pts), #78(200pts) and 2021 1st round pick (assume #16 overall again and not discounted because future pick= 1,000pts) = 2,630pts

Why the Redskins do it:   Their biggest need is probably an OT and #16 is a good spot to get one.  They could get the last of the BIG 4 (Wirffs, Wills, Thomas, Becton) there but, at worst, they could get Houston OT Josh Jones there at #16.    Trent Williams will likely be a pick traded on draft day but he is 30yrs old and wants $20mm/yr - he is only projected to bring back a 2nd round pick at most.

Why the Falcons do it:   Kind of takes care of the passrushing issues once and for all.   With a nickel front 4 of Young, Jarrett, Fowler and whoever our 4th best nickel rusher would be (Comminsky?) - that would/should be

Ohio State's Chase Young returns from suspension against Penn ...

 

2nd Tier Targets:   LB/S Isaiah Simmons-Clemson - or - CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State

The Spot needed:   #3 Detroit(2,200pts) or #4 NYG(1,800pts)

The Cost for Lions #3: #16 (1,000 pts), #78(200pts),  1st round pick in 2021(1,000pts) = 2,430pts (no discounts for future picks)

The Cost for Giants #4:   #16(1,000 pts), #47(430pts), #119(56pts),  2nd round pick in 2021(400pts) = 1,886pts (no discounts for future picks)

Why the Lions/Giants do it:   both are rebuilding teams and need more players and working on culture changes as well w/ fairly new coaches. 

Why the Falcons do it:  need major help in the back 2/3 of the defense.   Simmons fills a major nickel need in the defense while Okudah is a clear #1 corner who can take on true #1 WRs w/o help on many occassions.

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NFL Draft 2020: Jeff Okudah has potential to be 'home-run pick'

3rd Tier Targets:  DT  Derrick Brown/Javon Kinlaw - or - CB CJ Henderson

The Spot needed:   #12-Las Vegas Raiders(1,200pts)

The Cost for #12:   #16(1,000 pts), #78(200pts) = 1,200pts

Why the Raiders do it:   Raiders are rebuilding teams and need more players and working on culture.   Raiders GM Mike Mayock is fond of "Trader Thomas" and they would work well to get a deal done.  The math works perfectly on the picks.   The Raiders likely primary target is a WR and if they have similar grades on Ruggs, Jeudy and Lamb - very likely that one of those three is available at #16.

Why the Falcons do it:    just assures the Falcons of getting a prime target that can make an immediate impact on the defense.   Also still leaves this year's draft intact w/o touching the 2021 draft.  While losing the 3rd round pick would hurt, it is partially mitigated by having the two picks in 4th round.   Falcons were very happy with their 4th round haul in 2020 of Sheffield and Comminsky and they will likely feel good about getting a primary target in 1st while still having a 2nd and two 4th rounders.

Derrick Brown nominated for Allstate AFCA Good Works Team - Auburn ...
2020 NFL Draft Profile: Javon Kinlaw
Florida CB CJ Henderson Declares for 2020 NFL Draft, Will Skip ...
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Just now, Falcons_Frenzy said:

Hopefully they don't trade up but let's face it. It will most likely happen and it wont surprise anyone. 

I know there is always going to be "trade-up" talk with Dimitroff - it is rather significant that he has traded up in 1st round 3 times in 12 years - but he only had the one major move.

I do sense that TD is more likely than ever to trade-up this year w/ his job on the line - believe he wants a difference maker on defense and will go get one.   

Personally, I don't believe Falcons are seriously interested in Chaisson - he will be there at #16 but I don't think they will take him - too little production and too much projection.

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Simmons and okudah are not locks for the top 4 at all...I think the trade up rumors are in case one of them falls. I think the Lions trade down with a team coming up for a qb, the Giants could easily go wirfs also. I'm telling ya, one, if not both of those guys are falling out of the top 5. 

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Just now, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Simmons and okudah are not locks for the top 4 at all...I think the trade up rumors are in case one of them falls. I think the Lions trade down with a team coming up for a qb, the Giants could easily go wirfs also. I'm telling ya, one, if not both of those guys are falling out of the top 5. 

at this point, will be surprised if anyone comes up for a QB to #3 or #4.

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Thanks for taking the time in making this thread

I will go on record saying that I do not believe Simmons is going to be all that. I don't think he will ever live up to being a top 10 pick. So I do not prefer to take him in a trade up. I actually don't prefer a trade up at all, but if we must, I hope that we use future picks rather than our present picks. But if we are wanting to jump up to freaking #3 spot for a Okudah then its going to cost us some present day picks. 

I'd honestly prefer to trade up to 8-12 ish and draft Tristan Wirfs if he is still on the board. We already have two super young dudes on the O line. Let him come in and grow with them and protect Matty Ice for the remainder of his career while boosting our run game. Trading up is risky. Take one of the safer options. 

 

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3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

at this point, will be surprised if anyone comes up for a QB to #3 or #4.

I think the dolphins make a move to secure a qb. I also think it ends up being Herbert. Tua goes 7 to the chargers. Wild card is the pats making a big move. I think those tackles are going earlier than people think tho.

 

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4 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Simmons and okudah are not locks for the top 4 at all...I think the trade up rumors are in case one of them falls. I think the Lions trade down with a team coming up for a qb, the Giants could easily go wirfs also. I'm telling ya, one, if not both of those guys are falling out of the top 5. 

if you are being decisive and trading up for a player - you trade up to where you know you can get them.   That is the point of my thread above.   Could one of those guys drop to to #7/8?  sure but only one of them and, if they do drop to that range, odds are the team w/ the pick would just take the player that would be value at that spot.

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5 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Simmons and okudah are not locks for the top 4 at all...I think the trade up rumors are in case one of them falls. I think the Lions trade down with a team coming up for a qb, the Giants could easily go wirfs also. I'm telling ya, one, if not both of those guys are falling out of the top 5. 

I was reading somewhere that Giants GM Gettlemen has never drafted a Offensive Linemen in the first round.

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34 minutes ago, Cole World said:

Had we kept pick 55 we could’ve used it to move up to pick #9

Don't see why they felt driven to go after another TE when we have Graham. Neither have that much experience, so getting Hurst isn't grabbing an established productive TE for giving up that #55 pick. I would've given up less or not gotten Hurst at all, but I ain't running this circus. :lol:

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1 minute ago, PokerSteve said:

Don't see why they felt driven to go after another TE when we have Graham. Neither have that much experience, so getting Hurst isn't grabbing an established productive TE for giving up that #55 pick. I would've given up less or not gotten Hurst at all, but I ain't running this circus. :lol:

It is because we wanted to start an offense who were all first round picks... Now we need to take a FB or 3rd WR so we can complete it. :D

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31 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

I know there is always going to be "trade-up" talk with Dimitroff - it is rather significant that he has traded up in 1st round 3 times in 12 years - but he only had the one major move.

I do sense that TD is more likely than ever to trade-up this year w/ his job on the line - believe he wants a difference maker on defense and will go get one.   

Personally, I don't believe Falcons are seriously interested in Chaisson - he will be there at #16 but I don't think they will take him - too little production and too much projection.

Good thread g-dawg...

Now start mocking man!!!!

I think its Simmons, Brown, Kinlaw of trade back...then its Murray, BPA at CB, or who knows at that point...

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4 minutes ago, PokerSteve said:

Don't see why they felt driven to go after another TE when we have Graham. Neither have that much experience, so getting Hurst isn't grabbing an established productive TE for giving up that #55 pick. I would've given up less or not gotten Hurst at all, but I ain't running this circus. :lol:

Yeah I thought a 2nd was to rich. I could see a 3rd or later.

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