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G-Dawg's 1st round Falcons Guesses as of today (4/09/2020)


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as of today, here are my 1st round guesses on what the Falcons will do - their strategy:

Option#1:

Trade-up.  Isn't that TD's default position?  Would only be willing to give up 3rd round pick that would only move us up to #11(Jets) or #12(Raiders).  With targets in this order:

1) Isaiah Simmons, OLB/S - Clemson (probably long gone)

2) Jeff Okudah, CB - Ohio State (probably long gone)

3) Derrick Brown, DT - Auburn  (say 25% chance he falls this far)

 

Option#2:

Stay at #16 and draft w/ priorities as follows:

1) Javon Kinlaw, DT - South Carolina  (40% chance he falls to this spot)

2) CJ Henderson, CB - Florida  (70% he falls to this spot)

3) K'Lavvon Chaison, OLB - LSU  (80% chance he falls to this spot)

 

Option#3:

Trade down 5- spots and take LB Patrick Queen, LSU  (80% chance he would fall to pick#22-ish)

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that's my personal favorite.   I'm the conductor on the Kinlaw Train.

Option #2: Stay put and hope Kinlaw drops to #16.

as of today, here are my 1st round guesses on what the Falcons will do - their strategy: Option#1: Trade-up.  Isn't that TD's default position?  Would only be willing to give up 3rd round pi

Just now, E. T. said:

I like option 2 and getting either Kinlaw or Henderson. BUT...… option 3 looks really good too, trading back picking up some much needed extra picks to possibly use to trade back up with.

about the only option I don't like is Chaisson at #16.   I know he is a speed merchant and moves well in pursuit - he just scares me.  I know he is not Beasley, I know he isn't Takk and I know he is more of  a pure LB w/ passrush ability - I just don't want him.

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Winfield Jnr Dawg what say you we need improved safety play what say you.

We’ve added pass rush and have the opportunity to add a real difference making FS/SS this kids the complete package.

Can’t believe the mock crew haven’t had him higher.

Killed the combine probably thee best safety/DB workout at the combine kids a player.

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3 hours ago, ike barn87987 said:

#3. I love Queen and think he’s what we need at LB. Plus he’s from LSU and we love LSU players. This also gives us a chance to grab CB Reggie Robinson 2nd rd because he’s rising and probably won’t make it to our 3rd.

Outside of Debo, we haven’t fared well at LSU.   Both Jalen Collins and Duke Riley were huge busts - albeit for different reasons.

Having said that, I like Queen as well.

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4 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

about the only option I don't like is Chaisson at #16.   I know he is a speed merchant and moves well in pursuit - he just scares me.  I know he is not Beasley, I know he isn't Takk and I know he is more of  a pure LB w/ passrush ability - I just don't want him.

With bringing Fowler in, I don't see why we would go after Chaison. Kinlaw and Henderson would fill a void day 1.

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2 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

Winfield Jnr Dawg what day you we need improved safety play hat say you.

We’ve added pass rush and have the opportunity to add a real difference making FS/SS this kids the complete package.

Can’t believe the mock crew haven’t had him higher.

Killed the combine probably thee best safety/DB workout at the combine kids a player.

I personally think Safety is a few TATF members mock and not a "what would the Falcons do" mock.

That's not to say that I don't see value in the pick. I just don't think it's what the Falcons will do.

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14 minutes ago, SpongeDad said:

I'm going with option 1 if one of those three players are available.

Yeah I believe if one of those three fell, TD would pull the trigger if the other team accepted the 3rd rounder.

Jets need OT/WR

Raiders need WR

both likely available at 16.   Believe Thomas and Mayock have a good relationship so that is probably the more likely scenario although Raiders have more picks than Jets so Raiders might not care as much about the extra pick this year.

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14 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Move down to #23 and draft Delpit while adding a 3rd & 4th...

sorry, I just don't think that will happen.  Whether Neal and Allen are safeties for Falcons in 2021 or not, there are too many holes in other areas now - CB, LB especially - and more passrush from interior - for them to be drafting for 2021.   This is a career do-or-die season for Dimitroff and Quinn - they miss the playoffs and they are likely gone.

Simmons makes sense as he is more hybrid than just a safety.  If you look at what we know (which isn't much) on the Falcons prospect tracker - we have only kicked tires on a handful of safeties.  

I know you want it - but I just think you are on the wrong track and I don't believe Falcons are looking especially hard at the position.   Right now,    Maybe I am 100% wrong - will find out soon.

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24 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

sorry, I just don't think that will happen.  Whether Neal and Allen are safeties for Falcons in 2021 or not, there are too many holes in other areas now - CB, LB especially - and more passrush from interior - for them to be drafting for 2021.   This is a career do-or-die season for Dimitroff and Quinn - they miss the playoffs and they are likely gone.

Simmons makes sense as he is more hybrid than just a safety.  If you look at what we know (which isn't much) on the Falcons prospect tracker - we have only kicked tires on a handful of safeties.  

I know you want it - but I just think you are on the wrong track and I don't believe Falcons are looking especially hard at the position.   Right now,    Maybe I am 100% wrong - will find out soon.

Exactly.

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31 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Simmons makes sense as he is more hybrid than just a safety.  If you look at what we know (which isn't much) on the Falcons prospect tracker - we have only kicked tires on a handful of safeties.  

What if you looked at Winfield Jnr like this review of him is.

I think he covers hybrid  type described very well.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, ket222 said:

wouldn't we have to go down to about #11 to get kinlaw?

 

probably but there are multiple scenarios where Kinlaw could fall to us.  If Kinlaw makes it past Jacksonville at #9, he could fall because #10-15 most of those teams need either an OT or a WR and should see a run on those positions between those two picks.

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Just now, kiwifalcon said:

What if you looked at Winfield Jnr like this review of him is.

I think he covers hybrid  type described very well.

 

 

I mean hybrid S/LB.

not hybrid CB/S.

So no,  a 5'9" guy wouldn't be a hybrid S/LB.

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34 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

sorry, I just don't think that will happen.  Whether Neal and Allen are safeties for Falcons in 2021 or not, there are too many holes in other areas now - CB, LB especially - and more passrush from interior - for them to be drafting for 2021.   This is a career do-or-die season for Dimitroff and Quinn - they miss the playoffs and they are likely gone.

Simmons makes sense as he is more hybrid than just a safety.  If you look at what we know (which isn't much) on the Falcons prospect tracker - we have only kicked tires on a handful of safeties.  

I know you want it - but I just think you are on the wrong track and I don't believe Falcons are looking especially hard at the position.   Right now,    Maybe I am 100% wrong - will find out soon.

I mean, one could argue that injuries at safety derailed our last two seasons.  And it’s likely we have none under contract for 2021 since Rico is likely a cap casualty 

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

I mean hybrid S/LB.

not hybrid CB/S.

So no,  a 5'9" guy wouldn't be a hybrid S/LB.

That’s what the review reckons the guy could play LBer in a pinch outside boundary corner NB & both safety spots that’s hybrid to me.He could play any position on the back half of a defense with some of thee best instincts of any DB in the draft.

Run support is top notch can blitz if asked to me talking chess piece he’s in the Simmons Chaisson category if you ask me.

 

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2 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I mean, one could argue that injuries at safety derailed our last two seasons.  And it’s likely we have none under contract for 2021 since Rico is likely a cap casualty 

I know how Dimitroff thinks though.   He has checkboxes checked off for safety with these two guys that he drafted - and they are still on the roster and have played fairly well when they were healthy.

We have 12 years of data on Thomas Dimitroff now.  He's never taken a position in the 1st round that wasn't a "Top 2-3" need - never.   Thomas is "drafting for the now" more this year than any other year now.   He's not gonna get to say to Arthur Blank at the end of the year after another 7-9 season,  "yeah but did you see how well Delpit played when we inserted him in the starting lineup in the last 3 games when we went from 4-9 to 7-9?"  That conversation won't happen.

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