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The Steely Dan Appreciation Thread


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47 minutes ago, Jdrizzle said:

What happened in '16?

They were off in Trump’s direction.  The year before, they were off in Obama’s direction.  Polling errors tend to bounce around randomly, meaning there’s almost exactly a 50/50 chance they will be off in one direction or the other.  

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44 minutes ago, Jdrizzle said:

I mean for the record you've been saying for weeks and weeks you expect the race to tighten because that's what they always do.

 

 

How is that not expecting the polls to go more in Trump's direction because it's usually what happens? Your own expectations seem to indicate that it's more than a 50/50 chance 

On the race tightening, that’s just because my forecasting model predicts an 8% Biden lead and he’s above that in the polls, so I expect the race to tighten.  If Biden had a 5% lead in the polls, I’d expect the race to widen some.  

Nate Silver calling that a 50/50 chance is a bit deceptive, though.  I think you’re right about that.  His model expects the race to tighten, also, though for different reasons.  So he puts the probability of the race tightening as higher than it widening.  So I think you’re right about that one.

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12 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

They were off in Trump’s direction.  The year before, they were off in Obama’s direction.  Polling errors tend to bounce around randomly, meaning there’s almost exactly a 50/50 chance they will be off in one direction or the other.  

So basically what you're saying is we are in a 50/50 situation based off of the last two elections?

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2 minutes ago, Jdrizzle said:

So basically what you're saying is we are in a 50/50 situation based off of the last two elections?

No, if you look at the polling errors over the past 40-50 years, they tend to be off in one direction about half the time and off in the other direction the other half.  It’s more legitimate to criticize Silver on the probability that the race tightens vs. widens than it is on polling errors.

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44 minutes ago, Fire Q said:

How could this race possibly tighten?

Trump's campaign is broke

COVID cases are at record highs

787K people filed for unemployment

Trump is getting even more openly racist

His Supreme Court will end health insurance for 20 million people

Who is this guy going to win over?

Americans.  


Also, good people who know better but vote 3rd party because sending a “message” about the two party system is noble but voting to, you know, stop the uniquely Trumpian horrors of four more years is not.  

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  • Mr. Hoopah! changed the title to The Steely Dan Appreciation Thread

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