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Mr. Hoopah!

The MAGA NIGHT thread

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36 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Except Biden was leading the entire primary except for a brief period when Bernie surged, and Biden was a clear second choice for the non-Bernie voters.  Those numbers were fairly steady even going back to early 2019:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Biden is heavily indebted to AA’s, but that wasn’t just isolated to the south.  And while SC changed the media narrative, the foundations of Biden’s support were always there and only began to get recognized after the contest moved out of predominantly white states like IA and NH.  

Biden leading early in 2019 has nothing to do with this discussion.  Those same polls had him dropping like a rock everywhere but his Southern firewall well before Iowa (like months), and became exacerbated after said early primaries. He wasn't going to suddenly turn that around in say Ohio or Washington without African Americans, predominantly those in the South saying overwhelmingly that this was their guy.

They're called the most powerful voting group in the Democratic primary for a reason and it was particularly poignant this turn because unlike say the Clintons, Kerry or Obama before him, Biden was being so badly mauled that he couldn't even compete in any single race between a Midwest state, a Northeast State and a Western state. Not only did he have to win Southern blacks but he probably had to clean house. Without them this thing doesn't suddenly turn around. Anybody else would have had to drop out under severe political and financial pressures, but this was a rather unique situation given how well he was expected to do in SC (which he ultimately did and probably even a little better than expected) so he was able to whether that early storm.

I'd have to imagine even if he barely won South Carolina his campaign would be in a heap of trouble. He owes black democrats so much. I strongly disagree that the foundation was always there elsewhere

 

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9 minutes ago, AF89 said:

Biden leading early in 2019 has nothing to do with this discussion.  Those same polls had him dropping like a rock everywhere but his Southern firewall well before Iowa, and became exacerbated after said early primaries. He wasn't going to suddenly turn that around in say Ohio or Washington without African Americans, predominantly those in the South saying overwhelmingly that this was their guy.

They're called the most powerful voting group in the Democratic primary for a reason and it was particularly poignant this turn because unlike say the Clintons, Kerry or Obama before him, Biden was being so badly mauled that he couldn't even compete in any single race between a Midwest state, a Northeast State and a Western state. Not only did he have to win Southern blacks but he probably had to clean house. Without them this thing doesn't suddenly turn around. Anybody else would have had to drop out under severe political and financial pressures, but this was a rather unique situation given how well he was expected to do in SC (which he ultimately did and probably even a little better than expected) so he was able to whether that early storm.

I'd have to imagine even if he barely won South Carolina his campaign would be in a heap of trouble. He owes black democrats so much. I strongly disagree that the foundation was always there elsewhere

 

Sorry, but again look at the link I sent.  Biden didn’t just lead “early in 2019”.  He lead early in 2019, middle of 2019, the end of 2019, and was still a solid second during the brief period Bernie surged ahead.  He literally led the entire primary except for that short period.

And I just checked some of the statewide polls and Biden led in states like Michigan and Ohio the entire primary.  State polling was kind of scarce, but in the states that I looked at Bernie never had a lead in those non-Southern states and the data don’t show anything that would support the claim that he was “dropping like a rock everywhere” but the south.  

Maybe you can provide some polling data to support that claim because I’m not seeing it.

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Saw somewhere that Micheal Bay is doing a Covid movie and while that's dumb as **** I also fondly remember the at least two "how dare you vote for Hillary I just got back from seeing 13 Hours an rabble rabble rabble" threads after his last election year movie :lol:

 

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9 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Sorry, but again look at the link I sent.  Biden didn’t just lead “early in 2019”.  He lead early in 2019, middle of 2019, the end of 2019, and was still a solid second during the brief period Bernie surged ahead.  He literally led the entire primary except for that short period.

And I just checked some of the statewide polls and Biden led in states like Michigan and Ohio the entire primary.  State polling was kind of scarce, but in the states that I looked at Bernie never had a lead in those non-Southern states and the data don’t show anything that would support the claim that he was “dropping like a rock everywhere” but the south.  

Maybe you can provide some polling data to support that claim because I’m not seeing it.

Tbh with you I have no idea how to read or use that link you sent outside of a vauge understanding that (I think) the blue line is Bernie and the green in Biden I can't timescale it at least not on my phone

But even here you can easily see green line do a Scream Machine at what I have to assume is around early winter 2019. That's not some little bump. You can also sorta guess at one point it rises again.

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27 minutes ago, AF89 said:

Biden leading early in 2019 has nothing to do with this discussion.  Those same polls had him dropping like a rock everywhere but his Southern firewall well before Iowa (like months), and became exacerbated after said early primaries. He wasn't going to suddenly turn that around in say Ohio or Washington without African Americans, predominantly those in the South saying overwhelmingly that this was their guy.

They're called the most powerful voting group in the Democratic primary for a reason and it was particularly poignant this turn because unlike say the Clintons, Kerry or Obama before him, Biden was being so badly mauled that he couldn't even compete in any single race between a Midwest state, a Northeast State and a Western state. Not only did he have to win Southern blacks but he probably had to clean house. Without them this thing doesn't suddenly turn around. Anybody else would have had to drop out under severe political and financial pressures, but this was a rather unique situation given how well he was expected to do in SC (which he ultimately did and probably even a little better than expected) so he was able to whether that early storm.

I'd have to imagine even if he barely won South Carolina his campaign would be in a heap of trouble. He owes black democrats so much. I strongly disagree that the foundation was always there elsewhere

 

As to the earlier discussion, if South Carolina has been the last primary, I severely doubt he would have done nearly as well on Super Tuesday. Honestly, just moving South Carolina past super Tuesday probably would’ve done him in. The sequence of events and media coverage between South Carolina and super Tuesday were really remarkable.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Hoopah! said:

Boomer morning moved to the Biden thread. TATF hoople heads coming and starting random new threads may be good for abf. 

I only pray some of the titles only last three days ans no more. Whomever you have picking them needs to be fired. 

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5 minutes ago, The Monarch said:

As to the earlier discussion, if South Carolina has been the last primary, I severely doubt he would have done nearly as well on Super Tuesday. Honestly, just moving South Carolina past super Tuesday probably would’ve done him in. The sequence of events and media coverage between South Carolina and super Tuesday were really remarkable.

Maybe but there were probably other Southern states he could have gotten something similar out of. The only non SC Southern poll I distinctly member before SC was Georgia which most of us followed pretty closely and I do member *some* polls showing Bernie making it very very very interesting but I don't member by how much or how cherry picked those were

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27 minutes ago, AF89 said:

Biden leading early in 2019 has nothing to do with this discussion.  Those same polls had him dropping like a rock everywhere but his Southern firewall well before Iowa (like months), and became exacerbated after said early primaries. He wasn't going to suddenly turn that around in say Ohio or Washington without African Americans, predominantly those in the South saying overwhelmingly that this was their guy.

They're called the most powerful voting group in the Democratic primary for a reason and it was particularly poignant this turn because unlike say the Clintons, Kerry or Obama before him, Biden was being so badly mauled that he couldn't even compete in any single race between a Midwest state, a Northeast State and a Western state. Not only did he have to win Southern blacks but he probably had to clean house. Without them this thing doesn't suddenly turn around. Anybody else would have had to drop out under severe political and financial pressures, but this was a rather unique situation given how well he was expected to do in SC (which he ultimately did and probably even a little better than expected) so he was able to whether that early storm.

I'd have to imagine even if he barely won South Carolina his campaign would be in a heap of trouble. He owes black democrats so much. I strongly disagree that the foundation was always there elsewhere

 

Yeah, it’s not the best graph and it’s not interactive.  Best I can tell is that the drop happened around mid-late January and lasted approximately a month.  It was a big drop, but it was also temporary. 

My point is that Biden led the entire primary except that one drop.  That shows he was always the front-runner and the most likely to win because he had a broader coalition outside of southern blacks.  

Iowa is not typical of midwestern states.  NH is not typical of NE states.  And NV is not typical western states.  Look at the other states in the region.  Biden won Oregon and Washington.  He won ALL of the midwestern states except Iowa.  And he won a lot of the northeastern states that actually held primaries.  His support wasn’t isolated to the south nor was it isolated to AA’s.  

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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Yeah, it’s not the best graph and it’s not interactive.  Best I can tell is that the drop happened around mid-late January and lasted approximately a month.  It was a big drop, but it was also temporary. 

My point is that Biden led the entire primary except that one drop.  That shows he was always the front-runner and the most likely to win because he had a broader coalition outside of southern blacks.  

Iowa is not typical of midwestern states.  NH is not typical of NE states.  And NV is not typical western states.  Look at the other states in the region.  Biden won Oregon and Washington.  He won ALL of the midwestern states except Iowa.  And he won a lot of the northeastern states that actually held primaries.  His support wasn’t isolated to the south nor was it isolated to AA’s.  

But again those were all after South Carolina had its part to say. I think this is easily evidenced by just how different Nevada, NH and Iowa's neighbors with pretty much similar registerd voter demograohics voted after "Joementum". 

And yeah establishment consolidation is going to play a big part in that but without Southern African Americans that's probably easily going to Pete or Amy. We've never seen someone comeback from this many (not even close) loses in the primary era. Bill Clinton did it like after like one state and he historically got the moniker comeback kid.

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10 minutes ago, The Monarch said:

As to the earlier discussion, if South Carolina has been the last primary, I severely doubt he would have done nearly as well on Super Tuesday. Honestly, just moving South Carolina past super Tuesday probably would’ve done him in. The sequence of events and media coverage between South Carolina and super Tuesday were really remarkable.

I mean, we can do this same scenario with Bernie as well.  If the first contests had been SC, AL, MS, and FL then Bernie would have been out before Super Tuesday as well.  That’s my point — the media narrative was based on the idiosyncratic order of state primaries but that media narrative often misses the structural or foundational basis for candidate support.  Biden had a lot of support outside of southern AA’s, but that wasn’t clear until the contest moved beyond those early states (including SC).  

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Well if Bernie won, I'd say the same thing and it would be really shytty for him to abandon midwestern whites.  (Which certain urban progressive corners might push for) I'm not seeing the argument here

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11 hours ago, Makaveli96 said:

They established DACA, made same-sex marriage a constitutional right, created the jobs act, created the fair sentencing act. I doubt you think much about obamacare, but it was a great step in the right direction for getting us to a universal healthcare system. It decreased the uninsured rate for minorites substantially helping them more than than it did white americans.

Instead of writing a wall of text that contains a bunch of info that I’m sure you’re aware of, I’ll just ask you a few questions.

Was same sex marriage a Supreme Court decision, or did the Dems actually Fight for  legislation?
 

Did the Obama admin pass any immigration laws?  Is DACA still preventing the deportation of people brought to this country as children?

Did the Obama administration address the war on drugs or its affect on minorities?

how will Obamacare get us to universal healthcare?

Will Joe Biden actual go further than his predecessor on any of the issues you mentioned above?  If you’re aware of Biden’s record, I’m sure your answer will be not a chance in ****.

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7 minutes ago, AF89 said:

But again those were all after South Carolina had its part to say. I think this is easily evidenced by just how different Nevada, NH and Iowa's neighbors with pretty much similar registerd voter demograohics voted after "Joementum". 

And yeah establishment consolidation is going to play a big part in that but without Southern African Americans that's probably easily going to Pete or Amy. We've never seen someone comeback from this many (not even close) loses in the primary era. Bill Clinton did it like after like one state and he historically got the moniker comeback kid.

I’ll try to look at the state-by-state polls.  The 538 forecasts do show the pattern you’re talking about, but those are forecasts that incorporate things other than the polls.  I looked at the Virginia polls and there aren’t enough of them to draw any real strong conclusions.  There was a period in January where some polls had Sanders leading and others had Biden or Bloomberg leading.  But Biden had regained the lead just before the SC primary, as best I can tell.  

Ultimately, this is a data question and unfortunately for a lot of these states the polling data is pretty scarce.  But again, I’ll try to take a look sometime this weekend and see what the polls looked like before and after SC.  

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Oh hey, y’all remember those goofballs who always talked about “Alphas” and “Betas” and “Omegas”?

I stumbled across a NYTimes or WaPo article (I forget which) talking about werewolf erotic fan fiction legal wars.  Apparently those idiots using those terms in the context of politics were inspired by werewolf sex fantasies.  :ninja: 

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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

I’ll try to look at the state-by-state polls.  The 538 forecasts do show the pattern you’re talking about, but those are forecasts that incorporate things other than the polls.  I looked at the Virginia polls and there aren’t enough of them to draw any real strong conclusions.  There was a period in January where some polls had Sanders leading and others had Biden or Bloomberg leading.  But Biden had regained the lead just before the SC primary, as best I can tell.  

Ultimately, this is a data question and unfortunately for a lot of these states the polling data is pretty scarce.  But again, I’ll try to take a look sometime this weekend and see what the polls looked like before and after SC.  

I wouldn't know where to find that stuff if 538 doesn't have it front and center. I probably could eventually but it honestly sounds like more effort than I want to put in. (Maybe to embarrass WFW if I was bored)

Failing that I can only go by what I remember. What I'm pretty certain of is that Biden was free falling nationally and we were swamped day after day on here with Bernie Bros posting poll after state poll showing Biden having already dropped or slipping somewhere he had a huge lead. And yeah those were probably cherry picked but I member it being indicative of the larger trend. And it didn't look to be slowing down at all till SC at which point everything changed including the number of people in the race.

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Georgia certainly looked in play at about that time (with Biden up big before and after), but I only member that cause we got those polls in here daily and my twitter bubble was locked in on it

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