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The Joe Biden Presidency Thread


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2 minutes ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

Because we all recognize why this happened. And it certainly wasn't because of any proposed policies or inspiration on Joe Biden's part. 

FDR brought in sweeping reform and progressive policies that drastically changed the lives of working people. Biden’s masterstroke seems to be another version of the ACA. That's not going to get it done. 

“That’s not going to get it done”?

It got it done just fine for Biden if you look at the results.  That’s what is weird about this.  You’re acting like Biden lost.  

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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

“That’s not going to get it done”?

It got it done just fine for Biden if you look at the results.  That’s what is weird about this.  You’re acting like Biden lost.  

And you're acting like you're going to be shocked when Democrats lose to whatever Trumpist the GOP runs in 2024, or when they lose the house in two years. 

And you 100% shouldn't be. 

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2 minutes ago, Carter said:

You know **** well why. Those were not votes for Biden. They were votes against Trump. Biden didn’t even campaign and had objectively mediocre debate performances in the primary. How many black folks have to say they put their weight behind Biden because they felt like that’s who more white people would support?

Suggesting the Dems have all this popular support so there is no lesson to be learned here is not going to play out very well imo

You’re badly misreading my posts.  

Dems SHOULD learn lessons, especially about what happened in TX and south FL.  But some of the people in this thread are acting like Biden lost when, in fact, he did very well by historical standards.  Why isn’t there also a conversation about the lessons GOP should learn and their self-reflection?  Because...you know...they actually lost.  And they lost by a bigger amount than Clinton.

Why did FDR blow out Hoover?  Those weren’t votes for FDR, they were votes against Hoover.  Just like this year.  If the public is poised to turn out against the opponent, and the opponent keeps digging himself into a hole, then just sit back and let the opponent implode.  That’s just good strategy.  

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13 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

I’m still confused.

People are talking about these “problems” because of the Edison data.  But there are reasons to be skeptical of that data because other data using different methods show that those problems might not be real.  

I’m saying that we have two equally reputable data sources — the Edison data that most media outlets use and the AP Votecast survey — that show different results.  So we don’t know if there is a problem or not.  There might be.  There might not be.  We should look at all of the data and figure it out.  But declaring Edison as the definitive, be-all-end-all data source is wrong, at least based on the conflicting data we have at the moment.

You are confused because YOU and HM want to discount the Edison survey and rely solely/only on data from AP for starters, plus it is widely known dems use black votes to benefit other causes and not the actual black people that voted for them!  I don't need an Edison survey to tell me what I already know, and I don't need an AP survey to tell me everything is OK when it is clearly not!  Dems don't talk to people, not black, not white, not anybody!  It's as if dems sit in focus groups listening to a robot tell them "**** them, listen to me, do this!"  It was amazing to see dems get all giddy over the Lincoln Project soley because they (former GOP) understand messaging better than the dems!

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1 hour ago, Andrews_31 said:

BUT, at the same time, you know ol' dad, your uncle and grandmother have to pay heavy equipment operators different rates (and treat them right) in order to retain them.  A good worker makes money for us, so any bump in pay and moral is worth it.

yeah. These folks only want to run the good workers into the ground while the lazy ones get to kick back

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28 minutes ago, Andrews_31 said:

I stand on that.  Not aimed at you, but becoming so reliant on data allows democrats to flat out ignore conditions on the ground, ignore their constituents, allows them to "helicopter over voters because they REALLY have disdain for them.  Relying strictly on data is why dems talk "at" people instead of talking to them, and paint in broad strokes.

Is this what you meant the other day when you said Dems shouldn't listen to the pinheads? Because this is basically how I read it.

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1 minute ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

And you're acting like you're going to be shocked when Democrats lose to whatever Trumpist the GOP runs in 2024, or when they lose the house in two years. 

And you 100% shouldn't be. 

One of the frustrating things here is that I’ve been posting on these boards for over a decade and I’ve been explaining the exact same political dynamic every two years or so.  I would have hoped that people had remembered at least the big picture after all this time.  But nope, here we are several years later and apparently everything I said just gets forgotten (or ignored) and we’re right back to having the same conversation.

So here it goes, and honestly I’m not sure that I have the energy to keep explaining this every few years (or even months)...

The majority of the public is moderate.  The parties have become more ideologically extreme and, partly as a result, have grown more extreme in their rhetoric towards one another.  So you have a public that wants largely moderate and bipartisan policies to pass yet you have two parties that are increasingly divided both on policy and rhetoric.

The public each election cycle will turn away from the party in power as a result.  It’s called the “thermostatic” model of public opinion.  The public wants a comfortable room temperature.  If things get too hot then they turn down the thermostat and if things get too cold they turn it up.  Same with policy.  

Jim Stimson in an excellent book titled “The Tides of Consent” that I’ve recommended several dozen times over the years demonstrated this with his “policy mood” index:

policymood.png

So support for conservative policy was dropping during the Reagan administration because Reagan was enacting more conservative policies than the public wanted.  And once Clinton took office, support for conservative policy immediately started to shoot up.  Same for Obama.  If you look at the data through the Trump administration, support for conservative policy has dropped considerably.  

The only explanation for this is that the parties are governing in a way that is too extreme — both left and right — than what the public wants.  Now that Biden will be president and will enact more liberal policies, public support for liberal policies is going to drop.

Which is why the president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterms.  Midterm elections are mostly about the independents and swing voters swinging away from the president’s party because the party is passing policies that are too liberal/conservative for their tastes.  

So yes, Democrats are going to lose seats in the House and possibly the majority.  The senate is trickier, but we should expect the GOP to do better than they would had Trump been reelected.  But it has nothing to do with any of the things y’all are talking about.  

About a week after the 2016 election, I used this very theory or model to explain why Dems were in the best electoral position in a long time.  Remember all the times I referred to “s*** on a cold biscuit”?  I even cited this thermostatic theory back then.  I said then that Dems would pick up a lot of seats in the midterms and gain in the Senate because people were going to react to GOP policies (such as trying to repeal Obamacare) like “s*** on a cold biscuit”.  And that’s exactly what happened...not because of some slips in minority support that may or may not be real nationwide, but simply because the public always moves away from the president’s party because the increasingly polarized parties try to pass policies that are too extreme for the more moderate public, especially the independents and swing voters.  

 

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11 minutes ago, Andrews_31 said:

You are confused because YOU and HM want to discount the Edison survey and rely solely/only on data from AP for starters, plus it is widely known dems use black votes to benefit other causes and not the actual black people that voted for them!  I don't need an Edison survey to tell me what I already know, and I don't need an AP survey to tell me everything is OK when it is clearly not!  Dems don't talk to people, not black, not white, not anybody!  It's as if dems sit in focus groups listening to a robot tell them "**** them, listen to me, do this!"  It was amazing to see dems get all giddy over the Lincoln Project soley because they (former GOP) understand messaging better than the dems!

Please go back and read my post again.  I didn’t say to “discount” the Edison survey and I left open that it could be accurate.  I said that we don’t know at this point whether it’s accurate or whether the AP Votecast survey is accurate.  And we shouldn’t declare one or the other definitive until we know more.  

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I would also remind people that ***I*** am the one who was urging caution on Election Night while most of you were whooping it up and high fiving and ****-posting against the Republicans on the boards before any votes had actually been counted.  

Now a lot of those same people are wringing their hands about how apparently awful the Dems performed when, in fact,  a closer election was always a real possibility.  

The wild *** swings some of y’all make between “Biden’s going to 28-3 this thing...send it” to “F*** YEAH DEMS GONNA CRUSH IT!!!!” to “Dems have serious problems and need to reflect on why they won”. 

It’s just ridiculous and honestly can get exhausting.

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3 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Please go back and read my post again.  I didn’t say to “discount” the Edison survey and I left open that it could be accurate.  I said that we don’t know at this point whether it’s accurate or whether the AP Votecast survey is accurate.  And we shouldn’t declare one or the other definitive until we know more.  

I'm reading your posts, but go back and read Jp's response to me, and you'll see what I keep trying to say.

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7 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

You’re saying “don’t listen to the pinheads...except the pinheads at this particular exit poll firm”.  Sorry, but that’s inconsistent.

Lord.................

It was HM that mentioned EDISON the other night, not me.  Then he batsignaled you!  HM said that, based on whatever data he was looking at, Trump didn't pick up additional black voters...................PERIOD, and that is not true!  ALL I have tried to say all along, is that that Edison data (or whatever it is) actually shows what we (black folks) already know, that there is a problem, and it has nothing to do with Trump.  I'm not vouching for Edison or anyone else, but what you fail to realize is that you continue to prove my point!!!

 

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